What will happen if we enter a recession?You no longer need to guess the answer to that question.We just launched "Scenario Planning" for all users of @cfosilvia.You can now ask her in the Scenarios tab "what happens if we enter a recession?"Silvia will give you excruciating detail about what to expect. This feature is very powerful.Try it free today: https://t.co/bMI7hLeciU ...

RT Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano)I sat down with @jvisserlabs to discuss discuss Oracle going up 40%, what is going on in the stock market, the job revision, the latest in artificial intelligence, bitcoin, interest rates, and where asset prices could be headed.Enjoy!YouTube: https://t.co/lpHLMtNbQ4Spotify: https://t.co/YfXJCJhnxVApple: https://t.co/TwtRj5lVmTTIMESTAMPS:0:00 - Intro0:59 - Why are there massive moves in the stock market?3:38 - What’s going on with inflation and tariffs9:25 - Is there an ar ...

📉 ADM ISI Chief Economist & Global Strategist Marc Ostwald (@MOstwald1) says recession fears may be exaggerated:“If people expect a 1–2% contraction, that’s probably over-egging it. We’re talking about something closer to -0.5%—not encouraging for risk appetite, but not an ‘oh my goodness’ moment. Governments have too much debt and little fiscal headroom to borrow more.” ...

Core Viewpoint - The US stock market is experiencing a strong rally, driven by positive earnings, steady economic conditions, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, although Goldman Sachs has identified potential risks that could impact stock prices [1][2][5]. Economic Conditions - The US economy is perceived to be in a favorable position, with resilient growth and signs of weakness in certain sectors, such as the job market, which may allow for interest rate cuts by the Fed [2][5]. - August inflation data met economists' expectations, maintaining optimism for future rate cuts [3]. Market Risks - Goldman Sachs highlighted two primary risks that could hinder the stock market's upward momentum: concerns about a potential recession and a possible reduction in expectations for Fed rate cuts [5]. - The market has been buoyed by weak job growth and slowing manufacturing activity, which have supported the case for rate cuts, but this situation could change rapidly [6]. Recession Concerns - There is an ongoing concern about a potential recession, although investors have largely dismissed these risks, with the market-implied US forward growth rate estimated at around 1.6%, indicating expectations for growth near historical norms [7]. - A continued weakening in the job market could shift investor sentiment, especially if the unemployment rate rises sharply, which would prompt the market to anticipate earlier rate cuts and put pressure on equities [8][9].

Hello everyone. We've got a lot to discuss today. Jordy Visser explains whether we're going to have a recession.Larry Ellison proves once again he's the GOAT. And Open Door's new CEO has got an awesome pay package. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Papiano.[Music] I recently sat down with Jordy Visser and I asked him one simple question that everyone wants to know. Are we going to have a recession or are we not. Here's what Jordy had to say.>> Not only is there no possibility of a recession, and aga ...

Group 1: Treasury Yields Overview - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.06% as of September 12, 2025, while the 2-year note was at 3.56% and the 30-year note at 4.68% [1] - A long-term view of the 10-year yield shows significant historical context, starting from 1965, including the impact of the 1973 oil embargo [2] Group 2: Inverted Yield Curve and Recession Indicators - An inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, with the 10-2 spread being a reliable leading indicator for recessions [2] - The average lead time to a recession from the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Group 3: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs for banks, which typically affects mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed holding rates steady [7] - The latest Freddie Mac survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.35%, the lowest since October 2024 [7] Group 4: Treasury ETFs - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]

Market Predictions - J.P. Morgan predicts a slight decline in the stock market, forecasting the S&P 500 to end the year around 6,000, a decrease of about 6% from its current level of approximately 6,400 [2][3] - The firm anticipates a 40% chance of recession by the end of 2025, a reduction from a previous estimate of 60% [3][4] Economic Factors - The predictions are influenced by political uncertainty, particularly regarding tariffs and inflation's impact on the U.S. economy, leading to sluggish growth due to high interest rates [3][4] - J.P. Morgan expects higher inflation prints in the coming months, which could negatively affect consumer spending and increase recession risks [4] Commodity Market Outlook - In the commodity markets, J.P. Morgan forecasts that gold will continue to outperform, driven by political uncertainty and market volatility [5][6] - Oil prices are expected to drop into the mid-$60 range due to an increase in global oil inventories, with nearly 240 million new barrels added since February [5] Additional Market Predictions - J.P. Morgan has set specific targets for various indices: 345 for the MSCI Eurozone, 9,000 for the FTSE 100, 3,000 for the TOPIX, and 1,250 for the MSCI EM [7]

From the Desk of Anthony Pompliano0:00 Will There Be A Recession Soon?2:37 Larry Ellison Tops Elon Musk As World’s Richest Person3:28 Opendoor’s CEO’s Insane Pay PackageEnjoy! https://t.co/lyzy4hX0Kv ...

America's labor market is showing serious cracks. Hiring has cooled off, layoffs are climbing, and those help wanted signs are quietly disappearing from storefronts across the country. So, is this the start of a recession that will crush markets.Or is it just the kind of economic hiccup that brings the rate cuts everyone has been begging for without triggering a full-blown panic. Today, we're cutting through the economic noise and breaking down what this labor wobble actually means for your portfolio. My na ...

What do you make of the futures pulling back. I mean, we saw that the CPI come in line. A lot of people believe that's going to lead us uh excuse me, the jobless claims are going to lead us to a cut.Why are we seeing this pullback today. Any any idea. Well, Frank, the number one thing that matters for next week is, of course, the resumption of the Fed's easing cycle.And I actually think it drives a pretty constructive market market setup going into the next 6 months. Now, even though that easing is going to ...