Core Viewpoint - U.S. stocks have historically never experienced three consecutive negative "Santa Claus rally" periods, suggesting a potential for a market rebound this year after two negative years [1][5]. Group 1: Historical Performance - The Santa rally period, which includes the last five trading sessions of the year and the first two of the following year, began recently, with the S&P 500 up 0.2% since its start [2]. - Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of nearly 1.3% during the Santa rally period, closing higher 76% of the time, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite have recorded average gains of over 1.3% and 1.7%, respectively [3][4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Expectations - Investors are closely monitoring the market for signs of a Santa rally this year, especially given the lack of major catalysts and thin holiday trading [5]. - Historical patterns indicate that the stakes for a rally this year are particularly high, as stocks have posted negative returns in the last two Santa rally periods [5][6]. - Market strategists note that when the Santa rally occurs, the likelihood of continued positive market performance increases, while its absence may signal potential trouble ahead [8].

Stocks have never seen three negative "Santa Claus rally†periods in a row. After two straight misses, history says the odds favor a comeback this year. ...

Core Insights - The S&P 500 has reached a new all-time closing high, driven by improved sentiment following a decline in new applications for U.S. unemployment benefits and strong economic growth of 4.3% in Q3 2025, surpassing expectations of 3.2% [1][2] Economic Outlook - The resilient economy and consumer demand are expected to support healthy corporate earnings, with a positive growth outlook and anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve for 2026 enhancing investor optimism [2] Asset Management Sector - Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. (AMG) and Federated Hermes, Inc. (FHI) have reached new highs, reflecting bullish investor sentiment influenced by the overall economic health [3][8] - AMG's shares hit a 52-week high of $293.74, closing at $291.13, following strong Q3 results and positive Q4 guidance, with expected economic earnings between $8.10 and $9.26 per share, up from $6.53 in Q4 2024 [5][6] - AMG's pivot towards private markets and liquid alternatives has driven strong inflows, with $17 billion in net client cash flows in the first nine months of 2025, and alternatives now account for 55% of earnings [10][11] Federated Hermes Performance - Federated Hermes shares reached a 52-week high of $54.48, closing at $54.33, supported by positive market sentiment [13] - The company reported record AUM of $871.2 billion as of September 30, 2025, with a 7.4% CAGR in AUM over the past four years, driven by strong money market and equity asset growth [14] - Money market AUM was $652.8 billion, with favorable conditions expected to continue as yields remain attractive [15] Financial Flexibility - Federated Hermes maintains solid financial flexibility with $647.4 million in cash against $348.3 million in long-term debt, supporting shareholder returns through regular dividends and a share repurchase program [17] Growth Strategies - AMG's new partnerships are projected to add nearly $24 billion in AUM, while Federated Hermes has strengthened its platform through acquisitions, enhancing its operational capabilities [9][16]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market opened with mixed performance on December 26, 2025, as traders returned from the Christmas holiday, with major indexes showing cautious movements after a robust week [1] - The S&P 500 (SPX) edged up 0.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was largely unchanged, and the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) rose 0.2% [2] Major Market Indexes Performance - On December 24, the DJIA surged 0.6%, or 288.75 points, closing at a record high of 48,731.16, while the Nasdaq Composite finished up 0.2% at 23,613.31, driven by gains in AI-related companies [3] - The S&P 500 gained 0.3% to reach a new all-time closing high of 6,932.05, touching an intraday record of 6,937.32 [3] Economic Data - Initial jobless claims for the week ended December 24 decreased by 10,000 to 214,000, lower than the consensus estimate of 221,000, while continuing claims increased by 38,000 to 1.923 million [4] Upcoming Market Events - Key economic releases to watch include the Case-Shiller Home Price Index for October and Pending Home Sales for November, along with the December FOMC meeting minutes [5] Key Company News and Stock Movers - Nvidia (NVDA) shares dipped 0.3% but later rebounded by 1.1% after announcing a $20 billion all-cash acquisition of assets from Groq [6] - Nike Inc. (NKE) shares surged 4.6% after Apple CEO Tim Cook purchased $3 million worth of stock, with shares up 0.5% in recent trading [7] - Dynavax Technologies Corp. (DVAX) jumped 38.2% after Sanofi announced its acquisition in a deal valued at approximately $2.2 billion [8] - Intel Corp. (INTC) shares fell 0.5% after Nvidia ceased testing manufacturing chips using Intel's production process [9] - Micron Technology Inc. (MU) rose 3.8%, and Snowflake (SNOW) is in talks to acquire Observe for around $1 billion [10] Broader Market Trends - Gold and silver prices reached new record highs, reflecting demand for safe-haven assets, while WTI crude oil futures dipped slightly [11] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield decreased to 4.12%, and Bitcoin was trading around $89,000 [11] - The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) decreased by 3.8%, indicating reduced market apprehension [11]

Seasonality, precious metals, and positioning all collide as the calendar flips into the final stretch of the year...Today officially marks the start of the Santa Claus rally window, running from December 26 through year-end. Historically, the market has never missed three Santa rallies in a row, and after back-to-back disappointments, the odds tilt toward a positive finish this year.Setting Up for 2026As the year winds down, the focus naturally shifts from short-term seasonality to longer-term positioning. ...

Market Overview - US stocks showed little change as traders returned from the Christmas holiday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite hovering near the flatline in thin trading [1][6] - The S&P 500 and Dow reached record highs during the Christmas Eve session, marking their fifth consecutive victories as Wall Street entered the Santa Claus rally period [3][7] Precious Metals - Precious metals, including gold and silver, continued to rally, reaching fresh records amid geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar [2][14] - Gold and silver prices surged, contributing to a strong year-end performance for these commodities [14] Coupang - Coupang's stock rose by 6% in premarket trading after the company identified the source of a data breach that affected 33 million customers, leading to a previous 17% decline in stock value for the month [8][9] - The breach was linked to a former employee who downloaded customer data but did not share it externally, and the information has since been deleted [9] Nike - Nike shares increased in premarket trading following CEO Tim Cook's significant investment in the company, purchasing shares worth approximately $3 million [10] - This move is viewed as a positive signal for Nike's turnaround plan under CEO Elliott Hill, despite recent pressures from earnings reports indicating weakness in China and the Converse brand [11] Oil Market - Oil prices are on track for their largest weekly gain since October, influenced by a partial US blockade of crude shipments from Venezuela and military actions in Nigeria [12] - Global benchmark Brent crude traded above $62 per barrel, reflecting a more than 3% increase this week [13]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 E-Mini futures are trending down -0.03% as trading resumes after the Christmas holiday, with subdued activity and light volumes expected ahead of the New Year's week [1] - Wall Street's three main equity benchmarks closed higher, with the S&P 500 reaching a new record high [2] - Nike's stock climbed over +4% after Apple CEO Tim Cook purchased 50,000 shares, making it the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Dow [2] - Dynavax's stock jumped more than +38% following Sanofi's agreement to acquire the vaccine maker for approximately $2.2 billion [2] Economic Indicators - The Labor Department reported a decrease in initial jobless claims by -10K to 214K, compared to the expected 224K [3] - U.S. rate futures indicate an 84.5% probability of no rate change and a 15.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming January monetary policy meeting [3] Market Trends - The stock market is beginning to show gains for December, aligning with expectations for a Santa Claus rally, which typically occurs during the final five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January [4] - Historically, since 1950, the S&P 500 has delivered an average return of 1.3% during the Santa Claus rally, with gains observed 78% of the time [5] Geopolitical Developments - China's foreign ministry imposed sanctions on 10 individuals and 20 U.S. defense firms, including Boeing's St. Louis unit, due to arms sales to Taiwan, freezing assets and prohibiting business interactions [6]

Bitcoin held near $89,127 in thin Boxing Day trade as Asian stocks edged higher and silver stayed in the spotlight after notching fresh record highs this week, with investors still leaning into the year-end risk bid. With several Asia Pacific exchanges shut for the holiday, investors took cues from the last full session, when MSCI’s broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.35%. Crypto traders framed the quieter tape as a liquidity story as much as a macro one. Gabriel Selby, head of re ...

Market Overview - U.S. financial markets are closed on December 25, 2025, for Christmas Day, with trading resuming on December 26, 2025 [1] - Major indexes reached new record highs on Christmas Eve, driven by optimism in the U.S. economy and the AI boom [1][2] Index Performance - On December 24, 2025, the S&P 500 rose 0.3% to close at 6,932.05, the Dow Jones increased by 0.6% to 48,731.16, and the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.2% to 23,613.31 [2] - For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.4%, the Dow 1.2%, and the Nasdaq 1.3% [3] - Year-to-date performance shows the S&P 500 up 17.8%, the Dow up 14.5%, and the Nasdaq up 22.3%, largely due to the AI supercycle and fiscal policy shifts [3] Corporate Movements - Dynavax Technologies shares surged after Sanofi announced plans to acquire the company [4] - Nike's stock rose 4.6% following news of Apple CEO Tim Cook purchasing nearly $3 million in Nike shares [4] - Nvidia shares fell 0.3% amid reports of halted testing for an Intel production process, despite a year-to-date increase of nearly 40% [4] - Novo Nordisk's stock climbed 7.3% after FDA approval of its GLP-1 pill for obesity treatment [4] - Huntington Ingalls Industries shares rose 0.3% due to U.S. government plans for new battleships [4] - ServiceNow experienced a 1.5% decline after announcing the acquisition of Armis for $7.75 billion [4] - ZIM Integrated Shipping Services surged 5.8% as its board evaluates potential acquisitions [4] - Marvell Technology Inc. gained 3.4% driven by strong AI sector performance [4] Economic Indicators - Unemployment claims fell last week, indicating a healthy labor market [4] - The U.S. economy grew at a faster-than-expected annual pace of 4.3% in Q3 [4] - PCE inflation data increased to 2.8%, while November CPI decreased to 2.7%, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy outlook [11] Upcoming Events - The markets will reopen on December 26, 2025, with no major economic reports scheduled for that day [5] - The "Santa Claus rally" period is currently underway, historically associated with positive market performance [6] - Key economic data, including the December Non-Farm Payrolls report and the Consumer Price Index, will be released in early 2026 [7]

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets closed on December 25th, 2025, for the Christmas holiday, following a strong trading session on Christmas Eve where major indexes reached record highs [1] - The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to close at 6,932.05, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.6% to 48,731.16, both marking new all-time highs [2] - The Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.2% to 23,613.31, while the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 0.3% to 2,548.08 [2] Sector Performance - Nearly all eleven S&P sectors closed higher on Christmas Eve, with the Financials Select Sector SPDR rising 0.9%, indicating strong performance in the financial sector [3] - The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR slipped 1.1%, contrasting with the overall market strength [3] - Year-to-date performance shows significant gains in technology, communications, industrials, financials, and healthcare sectors, driven by investor sentiment around artificial intelligence and the Federal Reserve's easing stance [3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a third-quarter 2025 GDP growth rate of 4.3%, supported by increases in consumer spending, exports, and government spending [5] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose to 2.8%, indicating persistent inflation, which presents a challenge for the Federal Reserve [5] Major Stock Developments - Nike shares jumped 4.6% after Apple CEO Tim Cook purchased nearly $3 million worth of Nike stock, providing a boost to the company [6] - Dynavax Technologies saw a significant surge in stock price following Sanofi's announcement to acquire the vaccine maker [6] - Nvidia's stock rose 3% on December 23rd but ended down 0.3% on December 24th due to conflicting news regarding its semiconductor production process [6] - Marvell Technology's stock rose 3.4%, and Novo Nordisk climbed 7.3% after FDA approval of its GLP-1 pill for obesity treatment [10] - ServiceNow shares fell 1.5% after announcing the acquisition of cybersecurity startup Armis for $7.75 billion [10]