Core Insights - The upcoming hiring report is expected to confirm a cooling job market, with U.S. employers adding only 50,000 jobs in November and the unemployment rate rising to 4.5%, the highest since 2021 [3][4][10] Economic Implications - The job report is anticipated to reveal a "frozen" job market, indicating limited hiring opportunities which could slow down the overall economy [6] - The report will combine data from October and November due to delays caused by the government shutdown, and it is expected to show a significant slowdown in job growth compared to previous months [7][10] Policy Impact - The data will reflect the effects of President Trump's economic policies, including uncertainty from proposed import taxes and strict immigration enforcement, which have led to reduced hiring and layoffs in certain sectors [8][9] - Economists suggest that the combination of policy shifts, demographic changes, and technological advancements like AI will contribute to slow payroll growth [9]

Getting some breaking news out of the Fed this morning. We'll turn to Steve Leeman with that who's also got a piece on the wires. Now, Steve, that's [music] uh pretty interesting.We'll get you the Williams headlines first, though. >> Yeah. John Williams, New York, Fed President, saying monetary policy is well positioned as we head into 2026.That is language the Fed chair used at the meeting recently that people took to say the Fed was on hold, but not entirely clear. This is where Williams is headed. He say ...

The number one issue facing Americans today, which they say will impact their vote in the 26 midterm, is affordability of everyday items like food and fuel. That's according to a recent survey conducted by our next guest. Joining us right now is pollster and political strategist Frank Lunts.Frank, it's great to see you. Uh we we've been talking about this word affordability, which has become sort of part of the the political uh if not popular lexicon. Uh the president has said that word is a conj job.Uh Gre ...

Global Economy & Central Banks - US and European futures are gaining ahead of central bank decisions [1][49] - The market expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 25 basis points [3][96] - The Bank of Japan is expected to move rates higher to 075% [26][96] - The US 10-year Treasury yield is at 417%, and the Euro-dollar is at 117% [4][50] - The market is pricing in slightly over two rate cuts by 2026 [92] Geopolitics & Security - Australia is considering tougher gun laws after a terrorist attack that killed 16 people [1][5][48][65] - Ukraine may drop its bid for NATO membership in return for Western security guarantees [1][48] - The EU is considering seizing or monetizing Russian assets to fund Ukraine [18] Market & Industry Trends - Asian stocks are under pressure, tracking losses from the US session, with concerns around AI investment [20][21] - China's retail sales are up 13% year-over-year, below estimates, indicating economic weakness [22] - China has built seven large petrochemical hubs, raising fears of oversupply and pressure on other nations [40] - European defense sector is interesting due to potential pullback on Russia-Ukraine discussions, but NATO demands higher defense spending [63][64] Artificial Intelligence - PolyAI raised $86 million in Series D funding for its conversational AI voice agents [70] - PolyAI's voice AI agents can handle tasks equivalent to over 1000 full-time employees for individual customers [73] - PolyAI claims to deliver approximately $10 million of value per client, totaling almost $15 billion for 250 customers [75][76] - PolyAI's annual recurring revenue was just over $20 million last year, with a goal to double this year [83]

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Core Views - The Federal Reserve's policy committee members expressed differing opinions on interest rates, reflecting internal divisions and the complexity of balancing inflation control with employment stability [1][5][8] Interest Rate Perspectives - Beth Hammack advocates for maintaining higher interest rates longer to combat inflation above the 2% target [2][6] - Austan Goolsbee believes rates could significantly decrease next year but opposed the recent rate cut due to insufficient data [2][10] - Anna Paulson perceives current interest rate policy as restrictive and prioritizes concerns about the labor market over inflation [7][8] Economic Implications - The Fed's challenge lies in determining whether current interest rates are "restrictive" or "neutral," with Hammack suggesting a preference for a slightly more restrictive stance to pressure inflation [6][8] - The job market is under strain, partly due to tariff-related disruptions, raising concerns about potential unemployment waves [5][8] Recent Developments - The comments from Fed officials followed a "blackout period" where public discussions on interest rates were restricted, highlighting the ongoing debate within the committee [3] - Goolsbee's dissent during the recent vote to cut rates indicates a split in the committee's approach, with some members advocating for a cautious stance until more economic data is available [9][10]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve has cut rates for the third consecutive time this year, committing to purchase $40 billion of Treasury bills per month, amidst rising credit risk and AI spending fatigue [1][2][3] - There is a consensus that further rate cuts will depend on labor market weakness or inflation improvement, with inflation remaining a significant concern [3][4][5] - The market's expectations for rate cuts differ from the Fed's dot plot, indicating a potential disconnect between market predictions and Fed policy [5][6] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Economic surprises suggest the possibility of weaker data than expected, impacting the Fed's decision-making process [4][6] - The labor market shows signs of potential improvement, but inflation remains a critical issue, with tariffs contributing approximately 0.5 percentage points to inflation [8][9] - Predictions indicate one more rate cut next year, contingent on labor market data [9][10] Group 3: Credit Market Dynamics - The credit market is experiencing increased issuance, with expectations of record primary volumes in 2026, driven by elevated maturities and M&A activity [30][31] - High-quality credits are expected to dominate the market, with a significant increase in tech supply anticipated [32][33] - Despite potential pressure on spreads, the market is expected to absorb the increased supply without widespread disruption [34][35] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies are leaning towards fixed income, with a focus on investment-grade securities and hybrids, while some analysts express caution regarding corporate credit [20][22] - The overall sentiment suggests that while fixed income has a role in portfolios, equities may present better growth opportunities [24][25] - The market is characterized by a constructive backdrop, with expectations of yield opportunities despite potential spread widening [35][39]

Core Insights - Young people are facing significant challenges in the job market, with a higher unemployment rate for recent college graduates at 4.8% compared to 4.0% for all workers, indicating potential long-term negative consequences for this demographic [1][3]. Group 1: Job Market Conditions - The current job market for recent graduates is the worst compared to the general workforce, despite not being the worst overall in history [3]. - Companies are slowing down hiring due to economic uncertainties, which is making it difficult for new graduates to secure jobs [3][4]. - Experts suggest that young job seekers should remain flexible and broaden their job search beyond specific roles or industries to improve their chances of employment [3][7]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Historical data indicates that entering the labor market during a downturn can lead to persistent declines in earnings and adverse health outcomes for young individuals [5][6]. - The current economic climate, while not in recession, poses risks for new graduates, as previous studies show long-term negative effects on earnings and overall well-being for those who start their careers in challenging conditions [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Insights - There is speculation that the rise of AI may be impacting entry-level job availability, but experts argue that economic policy uncertainties, such as tariffs, may be a more significant factor [4]. - Growth in sectors like healthcare presents opportunities for graduates, as these industries continue to hire despite broader market challenges [8].

Unemployment Applications Surged By Most Since 2020 Last Weekhttps://t.co/mA68hMOoO2 https://t.co/GrZwImvsJ7 ...

Applications for US unemployment benefits rose last week by the most since the onset of the pandemic, after a big drop during the Thanksgiving holiday week https://t.co/GvlRD2FnuM ...