Wage growth is falling, unemployment is rising — so why is the Bank of England reluctant to cut rates again? Get the Readout with Julian Harris https://t.co/NjxRkNtiOg ...

"It felt like the floor fell out." Work in L.A.'s entertainment economy is evaporating, and the city's creative class is hanging on by a thread. 🔗 https://t.co/DWJVMmVylL https://t.co/OccV5VTSYQ ...

Applications for US unemployment benefits rose last week, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis of state-level filings released during the federal government shutdown https://t.co/Qp2yhq0BYu ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy grew by 3.8% last quarter, but approximately half of U.S. states are experiencing economic contraction [1] - Chief Economist Mark Zandi reported that 22 states are contracting, 16 are growing, and 13 are stable [2] Low-Income Households - Lower-income households are facing financial strain, with many feeling their job security is tenuous [3] - Consumer confidence among those earning between $25,000 and $35,000 has declined, with nearly 20% finding jobs hard to secure [3] - Wage growth for lower-income workers is lagging, contributing to struggles with debts and limited savings [4] Inflation and Economic Policy - Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr indicated that inflation may persist through 2027, suggesting prolonged restrictive rates [5] - Economic contraction is expected in the District of Columbia due to federal layoffs and funding cuts, impacting nearby states [6] Regional Economic Challenges - The Midwest is facing economic challenges due to tariffs and stricter immigration policies, affecting manufacturing and agriculture [7] - Georgia is experiencing a slowdown linked to its manufacturing base and agricultural exposure [7] - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has warned of a potential recession in 2026, citing persistent inflation concerns [7]

Labor Market Overview - Several firms and economists have released estimates indicating a loosening labor market amid the ongoing government shutdown, with many reporting a decline in job growth [1][2][3][5] - The Carlyle Group estimated that 17,000 jobs were added in the U.S. last month, which is lower than the 22,000 nonfarm jobs reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for August [1] - Bank of America analysts noted a 0.5% annual payroll growth in September, down from previous months' growth rates of 0.85% to 0.97%, suggesting a potential increase in unemployment [2] - Goldman Sachs reported an underlying job growth tracker indicating 80,000 jobs added in September, but highlighted a loosening labor market with more workers than available positions [3] - Revelio Labs reported 60,000 jobs added in September, primarily in education and health services, despite a broader decline in job openings [4] Employment Trends - Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported a 58% decline in new hires this year compared to the previous year, marking the lowest level since 2009, with over 202,000 workers cut in Q3 [5] - ADP reported a decrease of 32,000 private-sector payrolls in September, the largest decline since March 2023 [5] Economic Projections - Economists project the unemployment rate to settle at 4.3% for September, with Wall Street estimating about 50,000 nonfarm jobs added last month [7] - The Federal Reserve indicated a substantial weakening of the labor market, with rising unemployment rates expected [8] Consumer Sentiment - Surveys from the University of Michigan and the Conference Board show increasing pessimism among Americans regarding job availability, with only 26.9% of consumers stating jobs are "plentiful," the lowest since February 2021 [10]

Core Insights - Gold futures have surged past $4,000 per ounce, marking the fastest rise since the Nixon Shock, driven by persistent inflation, rising unemployment, and a weakening dollar [1][4] - The Nixon Shock in 1971 ended the dollar's convertibility into gold, leading to rampant inflation and a loss of trust in the dollar, which parallels the current economic conditions [2][3] Market Dynamics - Since February 2024, gold prices have doubled, with the last similar increase occurring in the 1970s post-Nixon Shock [4] - The US M2 money supply has increased significantly alongside gold prices, influenced by trillion-dollar deficits and low interest rates [5] - The US Dollar Index has dropped 10% year-to-date, marking its steepest decline in four decades [5] Economic Indicators - Unemployment exceeds job openings by 157,000, the widest gap since March 2021, indicating a troubling labor market [5] - Inflation remains high, with 60% of Consumer Price Index items rising by at least 3%, while the Federal Reserve is cutting rates, risking stagflation [6] Institutional Investment Trends - Institutional investors are increasingly moving into gold, with Goldman Sachs raising its 2026 gold price target to $4,900 per ounce, indicating durable demand from ETFs and Central Banks [7]

I've been doing a lot of thinking leading up to the government shutdown about the data release calendars I watch to monitor economic data. Many of the dates are being thrown off and delayed now thatAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alp ...

[Music] Concerns are mounting over the US labor market after August jobs report revealed stark weakness with non-farm payrolls rising by just 22,000 far below the anticipated 75,000 and the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3% unchanged from the previous month. This tepid growth could mean a potential stall, raising fears of a recessionary pressures signaled by cooling hiring and rising layoffs, which hit their highest level since 2020. Investors were eyeing September's data for signs of a rebound or a deepe ...

Hundreds of thousands of federal workers have received their final full paychecks until the end of the government shutdown which began on October 1st. Despite the current Democrat induced shutdown, we will get our service members every last penny. Don't worry about it.How things play out from here, that depends on how a federal worker is categorized. Here's the breakdown. We have furled, exempt, and accepted employees.Furoughed employees that includes say economists at the Bureau of Labor Statistics or grou ...

Around one in six young people in India, China and Indonesia are out of work, says @KarishmaJourno. That's fueling Gen Z fury on the streets (via @opinion) https://t.co/wQxuRbNKwk ...