当地时间11日，乌克兰国防部情报总局局长布达诺夫接受媒体采访时透露，乌克兰有望在今年年底前实 现停火，甚至在未来几个月内就可能达成这一目标。不过，他强调，要实现停火，乌克兰、俄罗斯和美 国三方的参与必不可少。(央视新闻) ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has shown no signs of resolution, with recent developments indicating a complex and evolving situation that complicates peace negotiations [1][6][10] Group 1: Battlefield Developments - As of June 30, Russian forces have reportedly gained full control over the Luhansk region, marking a significant shift in the battlefield dynamics [2][3] - The U.S. has confirmed a pause in certain military aid to Ukraine, which includes the suspension of 30 Patriot missiles and approximately 8,500 artillery shells, raising concerns about Ukraine's military capabilities [3][4][5] - Experts suggest that while the U.S. aid pause may alter the military balance, it is unlikely to lead to a complete Russian takeover of Ukraine [4][5] Group 2: Diplomatic Efforts and Challenges - Recent high-level talks between Trump and Putin have not yielded any substantial progress towards a ceasefire, reflecting the ongoing stalemate in negotiations [1][6][10] - The lack of a clear and mutually acceptable solution for both Russia and Ukraine complicates the peace process, with both sides unwilling to make significant concessions [8][9] - European involvement in the peace process appears diminished, with recent discussions between Macron and Putin focusing more on other geopolitical issues rather than the Ukraine conflict [9][10] Group 3: Future Outlook - The future of peace negotiations remains uncertain, with potential scenarios including either a withdrawal of U.S. involvement or increased pressure on Russia to accept a ceasefire [10] - Experts emphasize that achieving peace will require a comprehensive political solution involving not just the key leaders but also European stakeholders, indicating a long and challenging road ahead [10]

Group 1 - Russian President Putin will participate in the BRICS summit in July via video link, while Foreign Minister Lavrov will attend in person [1] - The BRICS summit will take place from July 6 to 7 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, with Brazil being the rotating chair and a signatory to the International Criminal Court (ICC) Rome Statute [3] - The ICC issued an arrest warrant for Putin in March 2023 due to "war crimes" related to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [3] Group 2 - The situation on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield remains tense, with Ukrainian forces successfully regaining some areas in Sumy region [3] - Ukrainian President Zelensky discussed potential arms purchases from the U.S. and collaboration on drone production during a meeting with President Trump [3] - Turkish President Erdogan met with Trump during the NATO summit, discussing the possibility of Putin attending peace talks in Turkey [4]

Group 1 - Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky met during the NATO summit in The Hague to discuss important issues, including a potential ceasefire and protection for Ukrainian citizens, although Trump denied discussing the ceasefire specifically [2] - Trump mentioned that Ukraine is very interested in acquiring the Patriot missile defense system, and the U.S. will consider the possibility of providing it, but he indicated that it may be difficult for Ukraine to obtain due to U.S. needs [2] - Trump stated he would have another conversation with Russian President Putin to explore the possibility of ending the war [2] Group 2 - Trump announced that the U.S. will hold talks with Iran next week, with the possibility of signing an agreement, although he believes the agreement is not "necessary" [3] - During the NATO summit, Trump indicated that a ceasefire between Iran and Israel is progressing smoothly [3] - Trump maintained a strong stance against Iran's nuclear activities, asserting that the U.S. military's airstrikes have "completely destroyed" Iran's nuclear facilities [3]

据CCTV国际时讯，6月25日，美国总统特朗普在荷兰海牙出席北约峰会期间会晤乌克兰总统泽连斯 基。据泽连斯基在社交媒体发文说，双方就俄乌停火等问题进行讨论。但特朗普向媒体否认与泽连 斯基讨论了俄乌停火问题，称将与俄罗斯总统普京再次举行通话，"看看是否能够结束战争"。特朗 普在与泽连斯基会晤结束后举行的新闻发布会上还称，乌克兰非常想获得"爱国者"防空导弹系统， 美方将考虑能否向乌方提供。不过他认为，乌方可能很难获得"爱国者"导弹，因为美方也需要。 ...

制作日期：2025 年 6 月 3 日 热点品种 端午节期间，国际原油价格因 OPEC+增产幅度未超预期、加拿大野火影响原油生 产及乌克兰炸毁俄罗斯境内多架战略轰炸机而反弹。欧佩克+同意 7 月份将石油 产量提高 41.1 万桶/日，为连续第三个月增产，此次增产与 5 月和 6 月的增产幅 度相当。欧佩克+八个成员国将于 7 月 6 日举行下一次会议，决定 8 月产量政策。 加拿大阿尔伯塔省的野火已经导致该省近 35 万桶重质原油日产量停产。雪佛龙 此前在委内瑞拉运营的更广泛的许可证到期。美国特朗普政府 5 月 28 日向雪佛 龙公司颁发了简化版的许可证，允许其继续留在委内瑞拉，对设备进行最低限度 的维护，但禁止在委内瑞拉生产石油，这是美国政府对委内瑞拉石油行业的制裁 升级，其目的是避免向委内瑞拉总统马杜罗政府支付任何可能的款项。雪佛龙占 委内瑞拉石油产量的五分之一。目前尚不清楚该政策是否会扩展到委内瑞拉石油 行业的其他外国合作伙伴。另外特朗普威胁称可以对伊朗和俄罗斯加大制裁大幅 削减伊朗和俄罗斯石油出口，不过特朗普的威胁只是现在促成美伊核协议和俄乌 停火的谈判手段。目前伊朗和俄罗斯原油出口受制裁影响不大，而 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Russian representative to the United Nations stated that achieving a ceasefire requires Western countries to stop supplying weapons to Kyiv and for Ukraine to halt mobilization efforts [1] Group 1 - The call for a ceasefire emphasizes the need for a reduction in military support from Western nations to Ukraine [1] - The statement highlights the dual requirement of both external and internal actions to facilitate peace [1]

乌方称已向俄递交有关停火的文件 等待俄方回应 金十数据5月29日讯，当地时间5月28日，乌克兰国防部部长乌梅罗夫在社交媒体上表示，乌方已向俄方 代表团团长梅金斯基递交了停火文件。按照流程，俄罗斯还有四天时间将文件提交给乌克兰处理。乌梅 罗夫指出，截至目前，俄罗斯仍未向乌克兰提交"备忘录"。乌克兰已明确准备好全面无条件停火，并积 极开展进一步的外交工作。乌方并不反对与俄罗斯举行会晤，但期待俄方能够尽快拿出一份"备忘录"， 确保后续会晤具有实质内容，真正为推动战争结束发挥作用。 （央视） ...

乌克兰总统泽连斯基：俄罗斯一直在寻找各种方式推迟停火。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Chairman of the German CDU, Michael Kretschmer, suggests that negotiations with Russia to restart the "Nord Stream 2" gas pipeline project could serve as a potential entry point for achieving a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine [1] Group 1 - The "Nord Stream 2" gas pipeline project is being considered as a strategic leverage in diplomatic discussions [1] - The potential restart of the pipeline may influence the geopolitical landscape regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1]