1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil prices are under long - term pressure from the narrative of large supply. As the Fed's internal differences increase, market concerns about the future employment market and economy remain, and the atmosphere in the crude oil market is still weak after the interest rate cut. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and all factors that can affect Russian oil supply [8]. - The EIA data this week is bearish from a forward - looking perspective, mainly due to the poor performance of distillates (the main product in autumn and winter demand) and the fact that US refineries are gradually entering the autumn maintenance period [21]. - The three major energy institutions (IEA, OPEC, EIA) did not significantly adjust the demand side in their September reports, but IEA and EIA have significantly increased the supply forecast for three consecutive months, and EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to fall significantly in the next few months [22]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Views - Last week's view: Crude oil is under long - term pressure from large supply. As supply increases and autumn maintenance deepens, the supply - demand imbalance will become more significant, and oil prices will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the Fed meeting, and short - term interference factors are mainly from the Middle East geopolitical situation and potential sanctions against Russia [8]. - This week's price trend: Oil prices rose first and then fell. The rise was mainly due to Ukraine's attack on Russian energy facilities, but the latter half of the week saw a decline due to the bearish EIA weekly report and the Fed's interest rate cut [8]. - This week's main views: Fundamentally, the downward trend of the monthly spread has slowed slightly, and cracking is relatively resilient. The US is gradually entering the autumn maintenance period, and distillate demand is poor. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but internal differences increased. Trump said there would be good news soon, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments [8]. 3.2 Weekly Key Points - **Global near - month spread**: The near - month spreads of Brent and WTI in the world's major markets slightly rebounded this week, but the long - term trend is still downward, indicating a slowdown in spot supply and demand [12]. - **Cracking trend**: Global refined oil spot prices are still supported. Relatively speaking, the cracking trend of US spot is slightly weaker, while that of Northwest Europe and Singapore is stronger. Although terminal demand is okay, the supply increase is greater, resulting in a weaker near - end spread [14][15]. - **Fundamental quantitative indicators**: The current comprehensive indicator of crude oil fundamentals is neutral, and the latest signal was negative from September 10th to 11th. The current forward - looking indicator of crude oil fundamentals is also neutral, and the latest signal was positive only on September 16th [18]. - **US autumn maintenance and distillate performance**: As of September 12th, the US refinery operating rate decreased by 1.6% to 93.3% month - on - month, indicating the start of the traditional autumn maintenance. Distillate demand decreased instead of increasing during the traditional autumn harvest season, and inventory increased during the period of declining refinery operating rate, which is contrary to the seasonal trend [21]. - **Summary of September report views of major energy institutions**: The three institutions did not significantly adjust the demand side, but IEA and EIA increased the supply forecast. EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to fall significantly in the next few months [22]. - **Fed's September meeting**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP to 4% - 4.25% in September, in line with market expectations. The dot - plot in September showed that the doves gradually dominated. There are obvious contradictions in this meeting, highlighting internal differences within the Fed [23][26]. - **Russia - Ukraine situation**: The Russia - Ukraine peace talks have stagnated, but there may be a turning point. Trump said a cease - fire agreement may be near. Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian energy facilities led to a short - term rise in oil prices [27]. - **North American hurricane forecast**: According to NOAA, the probability of this year's hurricane activity exceeding the normal level is 60%, but it is relatively calm compared to last year. Currently, there are no hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, and no potential cyclones are expected to form in the key areas of the Gulf of Mexico in the next 7 days [29]. 3.3 Price, Spread, Cracking - **Crude oil futures and spot trends**: Various charts show the trends of crude oil futures and spot prices, including different types of crude oil and related indicators such as net long positions in futures and options [32][34][37]. - **Crude oil futures structure and spreads**: Charts display the structure of crude oil futures (such as the prices of different contract months) and various spreads (monthly spreads, cross - market futures spreads, cross - market spot spreads, etc.) [40][43][46]. - **Saudi OSP**: Saudi Arabia adjusted its official selling prices (OSP) for different regions and different grades of crude oil in October compared to September [56]. - **Refined product prices and cracking**: Charts show the prices and cracking spreads of refined product futures and spot in different regions (US, Europe, Asia, etc.) [61][63][66]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - **Global crude oil supply**: It includes the supply of OPEC, non - OPEC, and the total global supply. Data shows the historical and predicted values of these supplies [82]. - **Non - OPEC and OPEC supply details**: Details of non - OPEC supply from countries like the US, the former Soviet Union, China, and Brazil, as well as OPEC supply (including production, capacity, and supply from major countries and exempt countries) are presented [85][88][91]. - **Global rig count**: Information on the number of rigs in the US, Canada, and globally, as well as the number of US oil rigs and related production indicators [97][99]. - **Refinery unit shutdown volume**: Data on the shutdown volume of CDU and FCC units globally, in the US, Northwest Europe, and Asia [102][104]. - **Global crude oil demand**: It includes the demand of OECD and non - OECD regions and the total global demand, with historical and predicted values [106]. - **Inventory data**: Inventory data for the US, OECD, and other regions (such as Europe, Japan, ARA, Singapore, and China) are provided [114][117][119]. - **EIA balance sheet**: The EIA balance sheet shows the supply, consumption, balance, and balance changes of global crude oil from 2025 to 2026 [134]. 3.5 EIA Weekly Report and Others - **EIA weekly report main data**: It includes data on crude oil production, commercial crude oil inventory, refinery operating rate, and total crude oil chain inventory [149]. - **Supply data**: Data on the production of crude oil, gasoline, distillates, jet fuel, residual fuel oil, propane - propylene, and their yields are presented [152][155].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's observations regarding the potential cooperation between Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky, indicating a decision on whether to attend related talks will be made based on developments in the next two weeks [1] Group 1 - Trump stated that there is significant animosity between the two parties and that he will assess the situation in two weeks to determine if progress can be made towards peace talks between Russia and Ukraine [1] - The possibility of implementing "large-scale sanctions" or taking no action at all, framing the conflict as "a battle of their own," is under consideration [1] - Trump met with Putin on August 15 in Anchorage, Alaska, and subsequently met with Zelensky on August 18, followed by a multilateral meeting with European leaders, the EU, and NATO [1] Group 2 - Trump mentioned that a clearer understanding of the situation regarding Russia and Ukraine would emerge in about two weeks [1]

Core Points - The White House is planning a trilateral meeting in Budapest involving the leaders of the US, Russia, and Ukraine to negotiate an end to the long-standing conflict [2] - The location of the summit is still uncertain, with Budapest being a preferred choice despite other suggestions like Moscow and Geneva [2][3] - Russian officials are showing reluctance towards immediate meetings between Zelensky and Putin, advocating for a gradual approach to discussions [4] Group 1 - The US Secret Service is preparing for the summit in Hungary, which is seen as a significant diplomatic step [2] - The meeting's outcome is uncertain, with German Chancellor Merz indicating that follow-up talks between Putin and Zelensky could occur in the coming weeks [3] - The trilateral meeting may take place after a bilateral meeting between Putin and Zelensky, with Trump expected to join [5] Group 2 - NATO defense ministers are convening to discuss security guarantees and military support for Ukraine, highlighting the urgency of the situation [5][6] - European allies are facing challenges in deciding on sending peacekeeping forces and acquiring more US-made weapons for Ukraine [6] - The involvement of the US in security guarantees is viewed positively by European officials, indicating a collaborative effort [6]

Group 1 - The core focus of the news is the potential meeting between Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky, with Switzerland offering to grant "immunity" to Putin if he attends peace talks [1][3] - The Swiss Foreign Minister Cassis stated that individuals subject to an ICC arrest warrant could receive immunity if attending peace meetings, highlighting Switzerland's role as a neutral ground for such discussions [3] - French President Macron suggested that the meeting between Putin and Zelensky should take place in Europe, specifically in Geneva, Switzerland, emphasizing the collective desire for a neutral location [3][4] Group 2 - Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov emphasized the need for thorough preparation for the meeting aimed at resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict, indicating the seriousness of the discussions [4] - Lavrov also stated that any peace agreement concerning Ukraine must ensure Russia's security, reflecting the critical issues at stake in the negotiations [4]

Group 1 - The Alaska talks between the US and Russia are seen as a significant event, marking a constructive dialogue but not reaching full consensus, indicating further discussions are needed [1][3] - The meeting is viewed as an important step in alleviating the Russia-Ukraine conflict, serving primarily to buy time for both leaders to address domestic and allied concerns [1][5] - The procedural significance of the talks is highlighted, as it reestablishes high-level direct dialogue, which is considered the most effective method for resolving geopolitical issues [1][3] Group 2 - The core objective of the meeting was to push towards a substantial ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but significant differences in positions among the parties were evident [5][6] - The US aims to leverage the ceasefire to enhance Trump's diplomatic influence and domestic support, while also signaling potential consequences for Russia if it refuses to cease hostilities [5][6] - Russia's demands include ensuring long-term geopolitical security and the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from specific regions, alongside discussions on lifting sanctions [5][6] Group 3 - The European Union, although not directly participating, communicated its stance through five key points, emphasizing the necessity of a ceasefire and the involvement of Ukraine in negotiations [6][10] - The meeting is characterized as a starting point for peace rather than a conclusive agreement, with expectations set for ongoing negotiations [6][10] - Future negotiations are anticipated to involve not only the US and Russia but also Ukraine and potentially the EU, indicating a broader multilateral approach [7][10] Group 4 - The potential economic impacts of the negotiations are significant, particularly for European assets, which are expected to benefit from the easing of tensions and reconstruction efforts in Ukraine [10][11] - The reconstruction of Ukraine is projected to require at least $524 billion over the next decade, with housing being the highest demand sector [11][12] - The geopolitical dynamics may shift US focus towards the Indo-Pacific region, while also creating new diplomatic opportunities in Europe [10][12]

Core Points - President Trump stated during a video conference with European leaders that he does not intend to discuss any potential territorial divisions with President Putin during their upcoming meeting on the 15th [1] - The main goal of the meeting is to ensure a ceasefire in Ukraine, as emphasized by both Trump and European leaders [1] - European leaders expressed skepticism about the potential outcomes of the meeting, based on impressions from the video conference [1] Summary by Sections - **Meeting Objectives** - The primary objective of the Trump-Putin meeting is to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine [1] - Trump indicated that achieving a ceasefire is a prerequisite for any negotiations regarding peace [1] - **Security Guarantees** - Trump mentioned that the U.S. is willing to provide some form of security guarantees to Ukraine if a ceasefire agreement is reached, but these guarantees would not be under NATO's framework [1] - The specifics of the security guarantees were not detailed, with Trump discussing only broader concepts [1] - **Participants and Context** - The video conference included European leaders, NATO, the EU, and Ukrainian President Zelensky, facilitated by German Chancellor Merkel [1] - The meeting is scheduled to take place in Alaska on the 15th [1]

Group 1: Meeting Overview - The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 in Alaska may mark the formal start of negotiations regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with expectations for a framework agreement or consensus[2] - The likelihood of achieving a comprehensive ceasefire in the short term remains low, as it requires direct participation from Ukraine and Europe in the negotiations[15] - The adjustment of negotiation conditions indicates a more pragmatic approach, but the final outcome will largely depend on battlefield dynamics, especially after the summer offensive[15] Group 2: Market and Geopolitical Implications - Short-term impacts of the meeting may include potential suppression of gold and energy prices, as well as a reduction in risks associated with US-China relations[15] - The dollar index has seen a decline from a high of 110 in January to a low of 98 in late April, reflecting a trend of "de-dollarization" amid rising global asset prices[6] - The summer offensive by Russia has shown limited success, with an average territorial gain of 488 square kilometers per month, which is still less than 1% of Ukraine's total area[10] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Uncertainties surrounding the specific content and outcomes of the US-Russia summit pose risks to the potential agreements[19] - The ongoing situation on the battlefield may significantly affect the implementation of any potential agreements reached during the negotiations[19] - Ukraine faces significant political risks in conceding territory, particularly in Donetsk, which is a strategic defensive stronghold[14]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles revolves around the upcoming meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin, scheduled for August 15 in Alaska, aimed at discussing a long-term peace plan for Ukraine [2][14]. - Trump has set a deadline of August 8 for Russia to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine, threatening severe sanctions if no progress is made [5][11]. - The situation is complicated by Ukraine's insistence on being included in discussions regarding European security, as expressed by President Zelensky [7][12]. Group 2 - Trump's administration has been actively pushing for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, with three rounds of direct negotiations having taken place so far, but with limited success [10][18]. - The recent visit of Trump's Middle East envoy, Wittekov, to Moscow was part of efforts to facilitate dialogue, which Trump described as having made "significant progress" [9][10]. - Analysts suggest that the dynamics of the negotiations are shifting, with both the US and Russia showing a willingness to engage in discussions to avoid further deterioration of relations [6][18]. Group 3 - The potential for a three-way meeting involving Trump, Putin, and Zelensky has been discussed, but Trump later indicated that a meeting with Putin alone could suffice [6][7]. - There are differing opinions within Russia regarding the conditions for a meeting with Zelensky, with Putin stating that certain conditions need to be met before such a meeting can occur [7][17]. - The articles highlight the ongoing complexities of the conflict, with various proposals for limited ceasefires being considered, including a potential "air ceasefire" [14][16].

Group 1 - The core point of the articles revolves around the upcoming meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin on August 15 in Alaska, which aims to discuss a long-term peace plan for Ukraine amidst ongoing tensions and sanctions [1][2][5] - This meeting marks the first in-person encounter between US and Russian leaders in four years, highlighting the significance of diplomatic engagement in resolving the Ukraine crisis [1][2] - Trump's previous "ultimatum" to Russia included a 10-day deadline for a ceasefire, indicating a shift in his approach to the prolonged conflict, which has seen multiple timelines set for negotiations [2][4] Group 2 - The potential impact of the meeting is underscored by the importance of energy exports to Russia, with Trump's threats of secondary tariffs on Russian energy exports being a significant leverage point [3] - Analysts suggest that Trump's approach of setting strict timelines and applying pressure may not effectively facilitate negotiations, as it could lead to a loss of trust from both parties involved in the conflict [4] - Ukrainian President Zelensky emphasized that the initiative for ending the conflict lies with Russia, and he is coordinating with European leaders to ensure a unified stance in support of Ukraine [6]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine shows no signs of easing, despite Trump's high-profile involvement in mediation efforts [1][7] Group 1: Meeting Announcement - Trump announced a meeting with Putin on August 15 in Alaska, marking the first in-person meeting between U.S. and Russian leaders in four years [1] - The focus of the meeting will be on achieving a long-term peace solution for Ukraine, as confirmed by Russian officials [1] - This meeting follows a series of communications between Trump and Putin, with six phone calls occurring in the first half of the year [1] Group 2: Sanctions and Pressure Tactics - Trump issued a "last ultimatum" to Russia regarding sanctions, setting a deadline for peace talks to be completed by August 8 [3] - If Russia fails to achieve a ceasefire within the specified 10-day period, the U.S. plans to impose tariffs and additional sanctions [3] - Trump's approach has included progressively tightening deadlines for negotiations, reflecting a shift from an initial 24-hour ultimatum to a more recent 10-day limit [3] Group 3: Implications of Energy Exports - The potential for secondary tariffs on Russian energy exports indicates a significant leverage point for the U.S. in negotiations [4] - Trump's threats towards India regarding Russian oil imports suggest a broader strategy to isolate Russia economically [5] - Experts believe that Trump's tactics may undermine trust between the conflicting parties, complicating the negotiation process [5] Group 4: Outlook on Peace Talks - The possibility of a meeting between Putin and Zelensky is acknowledged, but conditions for such a meeting remain unmet [6] - Zelensky emphasized that the initiative for ending the conflict lies with Russia, calling for a ceasefire as a prerequisite for negotiations [6] - European leaders, including the EU Commission President, have expressed strong support for Ukraine and a commitment to facilitating a just and lasting peace [6]