路透调查：预计到2025年底，英国央行将每季度降息25个基点，至3.75%（与4月调查结果相同）。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The British pound reacted cautiously to improved UK GDP data, indicating a careful interpretation of the figures by investors [1] Economic Data Summary - The UK economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter, following a 0.1% growth in the previous quarter, driven by unstable factors in business investment [1] - Investors may be overly cautious in interpreting the first quarter data, suggesting a continued cautious stance [1] Central Bank Outlook - The Bank of England perceives risks of economic slowdown due to the US's announced tariff measures in April, which may lead to further gradual interest rate cuts [1]

·中信证券研报称，美国4月CPI增速大致表现温和且低于预期，但家具、家电、玩具等商品的价格似乎 已开始反映白宫加征关税的影响，本次总体同比2.3%的增速可能已是今年全年的低点。美国关税水平 的"天花板"和"地板"都已依稀可见，贸易政策的能见度正在恢复，这对美股等风险资产而言是件好事， 美元可能也将在近期迎来支撑，对美债的态度依旧较谨慎。 ·中信证券评美国4月CPI：不易持久的"好数据" ·荷兰国际：欧元涨势可能仍然有限 ·欧洲复兴开发银行下调埃及2025和2026年GDP增长预期 ·巴克莱：印度央行可能在6月降息 【机构分析】 ·潘森宏观首席英国经济学家Robert Wood表示，随着就业市场逐渐走弱，英国央行今年可能会再降息两 次。本周公布的数据显示，英国的失业率正在上升，但速度缓慢，而不是急剧上升，同时薪酬增长也在 放缓。英国央行的政策委员会可以放松利率。尽管如此，仍有迹象表明，一些潜在因素在保持薪资快速 增长，并阻止通胀达到央行2%的目标。这意味着英国央行不太可能连续降息，但在2月和5月降息后， 今年有再降息两次的空间。 ·潘森宏观：料英国央行今年将再降息两次 ·荷兰国际集团分析师Francesco P ...

金十数据5月14日讯，潘森宏观首席英国经济学家Robert Wood表示，随着就业市场逐渐走弱，英国央行 今年可能会再降息两次。本周公布的数据显示，英国的失业率正在上升，但速度缓慢，而不是急剧上 升，同时薪酬增长也在放缓。英国央行的政策委员会可以放松利率。尽管如此，仍有迹象表明，一些潜 在因素在保持薪资快速增长，并阻止通胀达到央行2%的目标。这意味着英国央行不太可能连续降息， 但在2月和5月降息后，今年有再降息两次的空间。 机构：英国失业率上升，料英央行今年将再降息两次 ...

金十数据5月13日讯，美国银行的经济学家在一份报告中说，英国工资增长的更快减速应该会支持英国 央行进一步降息。英国不计奖金的平均工资增幅从2月份的5.9%降至3月份的5.6%。经济学家们说，英 国的工资增长可能会继续下滑，从而为进一步降息创造条件。市场完全消化了英国央行再降息一次的预 期，而且到2025年底，英国央行极有可能再次降息。美国银行预计英国央行将在8月、9月和11月三次降 息，使政策利率降至3.5%的低点。 英国薪资增长加速下滑应会支持英国央行进一步降息 ...

德勤首席经济学家Ian Stewart在给客户的一份研究报告中写道，英国就业市场放缓的迹象可能会促使今 年晚些时候进一步降息。Stewart表示，在失业率上升和职位空缺减少的情况下，持续强劲的薪资上涨 是一个亮点。"但由于雇主在招聘方面持谨慎态度，失业率可能会继续上升，而薪资增长将开始放 缓，"他说。"劳动力市场走弱可能会强化今年晚些时候进一步降息的理由。" ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has postponed its expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates until the end of the year and has lowered the probability of a U.S. recession [1] - The European Central Bank will maintain its aggressive stimulus policies from the past decade during its strategic assessment, avoiding calls for self-criticism after experiencing high inflation and significant losses [1] - Traders have reduced their bets on the Bank of England, expecting the rate cut to be less than 50 basis points by the end of the year [1] Group 2 - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Masayoshi Amamiya, stated that if the global economy shows signs of recovery, Japan's economy is likely to rebound, which would enhance overall inflation and inflation expectations [1] - Japan's Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, plans to meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen during the upcoming G7 meeting in Canada to discuss foreign exchange issues [1] - The Chinese yuan's midpoint against the U.S. dollar was raised by 75 points to 7.1991, marking the highest level since April 7, 2025, with the largest increase since January 21, 2025 [1] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 1.8 trillion yuan seven-day reverse repurchase operation today, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [1]

摩根士丹利：目前预计英国央行将在12月降息；维持年终银行利率在3.25%的预期不变。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The space for interest rate cuts by the Bank of England is much smaller than current market expectations, primarily due to significant capacity constraints in the UK economy [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The UK continues to face considerable capacity limitations, impacting overall economic performance [1] - Disappointing productivity and unstable wage growth are contributing factors to the economic challenges [1] Group 2: Inflation Outlook - Inflation is expected to rise again later this year, influenced by the aforementioned economic conditions [1] Group 3: Interest Rate Projections - The Bank of England is projected to lower interest rates to around 4% during the current rate-cutting cycle [1]

Core Viewpoint - Pantheon Macroeconomics forecasts that the Bank of England will lower interest rates by an additional 75 basis points within the year, with three expected cuts of 25 basis points each [1] Economic Growth Forecast - The chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, Robert Wood, has revised down the GDP growth predictions for the UK, now expecting growth rates of 0.9% and 1% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, compared to previous estimates of 1.1% and 1.5% [1] Inflation Expectations - Despite a drop in the March inflation rate to 2.6%, it is anticipated that inflation will significantly rebound in the coming months, potentially reaching 3.4% in the second quarter and only decreasing to 3.3% by the end of the year [1] Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Stance - The majority of data since the last forecast assessment suggests that the MPC will maintain a cautious stance, influenced by global economic disruptions caused by U.S. tariffs under President Trump [1] Interest Rate Cuts Timeline - The expected timeline for the interest rate cuts includes consecutive reductions in May and June, followed by a final cut in November [1]