英镑兑美元延续近期强势，报1.3510，微涨0.0593%，盘中最高1.3517，最低1.3499。 回溯近期行情，12月23日英镑上涨0.3%至1.3502，创10月2日以来新高，并站稳1.35关键关口。今年累计涨幅超过8%，跑赢多数非美元货币。其上涨主要受 英国央行货币政策谨慎态度及美元指数走弱支撑。 英国央行政策是推动英镑走强的核心因素 12月18日，英国央行年内第四次降息25个基点至3.75%，2025年累计降息100个基点，基准利率从年初4.75%回落。货币政策委员会内部存在分歧：9名委员 中5人支持降息，4人因通胀仍高于2%目标主张维持利率。这种格局传递出政策宽松不会过度激进的信号。 通胀回落为降息提供空间，但未引发过度宽松预期。数据显示，英国11月CPI同比上涨3.2%，为八个月最低水平，低于央行此前预测。 央行行长安德鲁·贝利表示，通胀回落趋势确立，预计到2026年4-5月更接近目标，比此前预测提前近一年。降息节奏呈"先快后慢"特点：上半年两次降息间 隔3个月，下半年延长至4个月，显示未来降息门槛提高，市场预计2026年可能仅有1-2次降息。 技术面上，英镑突破1.35后，中期趋势由震荡转为偏 ...

AJ Bell分析师Laith Khalaf指出，由于英国通胀仍处于相对高位，英国央行在2026年可能实施的降息次 数将少于2025年，未来几个月降息步伐很可能会放缓。"此前的货币宽松政策仍在发挥作用，2026年全 年新增的刺激措施可能会十分有限。" 这些数据可能促使英国央行在9月和11月暂停降息后，于周四重启降息周期。尽管一些利率制定者仍担 心通胀粘性，但劳动力市场数据进一步证明，英国经济正在失去动力。 此前公布的数据显示，英国经济放缓幅度超出预期，这可能促使通胀更快回落。更近期的调查数据显 示，经济疲软态势仍在持续，很可能源于基本面恶化，而非预算引发的信心受挫。英国预算责任办公室 预计，由于持续的地缘政治不确定性以及企业和消费者信心低迷，近期经济的季度增长将仅会逐渐回 升。 经济学家预计，本周降息决定将以5:4的投票比例通过。丹斯克银行分析师表示，英国央行行长贝利将 转向支持降息阵营。 英国央行预计将重申利率可能逐步下行，但可能强调未来决策将依赖数据，并指出随着政策接近所谓 的"中性利率"，进一步降息的门槛将更高。德意志银行表示，英国GDP数据显示经济增长疲软，薪资增 速也在放缓，提高了降息的可能性。然而 ...

不过，CBI首席经济学家路易丝·赫勒姆强调，当前前景仅为"谨慎乐观"。她指出，最新预算案"更注重 稳定而非增长"，未提供持久的投资激励。在通胀方面，CBI预计2026年消费者物价指数（CPI）将上涨 2.6%，略高于英国央行此前预测。基于此，该机构认为英国央行降息空间有限，预计仅在"下周"和2026 年初各降息25个基点，将基准利率由当前4%降至3.5%。这一判断较市场普遍预期更为紧缩。 制造业内部，13个子行业中6个实现增长。运输设备制造业环比增长3.6%，其中机动车辆产出增长 9.5%；机械制造业增长4.4%；其他制造业和维修业增长2.8%。尽管出现反弹，制造业产出环比增幅仅 为0.5%，低于市场预期的1.0%；同比仍下降0.8%，亦差于预期的下降0.1%。 建筑业延续扩张趋势，但动能明显减弱。10月建筑业产出同比增长0.9%，低于前值1.3%和市场预期的 1.6%，为1月以来最慢增速。环比方面，建筑业产出下降0.6%，逆转9月0.2%的增幅。其中，新建工程 环比下降0.7%，维修保养活动下降0.6%。截至10月的三个月内，建筑业总产出微降0.3%。 虽然经济数据疲弱，英国主要商业游说团体——英国工业联盟 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September, but each subsequent rate cut will become increasingly difficult due to a tightening monetary policy space [1] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Fed will acknowledge labor market weakness in its September statement but will not commit to another rate cut in October, with Powell possibly hinting at future easing during the press conference [1] - Political pressures are driving the Fed towards rate cuts, which may not align with economic fundamentals, raising concerns about the independence of monetary policy [1] Group 2 - Despite a weak job market, the U.S. economy is still progressing, and rate cuts are deemed necessary; however, fears regarding the Fed's credibility are unfounded as Powell remains unaffected by external pressures [2] - Any rate cut perceived as a compromise to political pressure could pose systemic risks to the market, with the S&P 500 currently showing signs of being overvalued at a P/E ratio of 22.5 [2] - The Bank of England is unlikely to ease monetary policy further this year due to persistent inflation, with the CPI remaining at 3.8% in August [3] Group 3 - UBS predicts that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points on September 18 and continue easing until March 2026, aiming to shift from a restrictive to a neutral policy stance [3] - Singapore's non-oil exports fell by 4.9% year-on-year in August, indicating weak recovery momentum, with expectations for 2025 export growth remaining at the lower end of the 1%-3% range [3] - Germany's finance ministry plans to increase its bond issuance in Q4 by €15 billion, reflecting rising fiscal expansion needs and putting pressure on long-term interest rates [3]

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is betting that the Bank of England will maintain a 4% base interest rate for the remainder of the year, driven by rising inflation and resilient economic growth [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent data shows that the UK's GDP grew by 0.3% in Q2, surpassing economists' expectations of 0.1% and the Bank of England's own forecasts [2] - The labor market is also performing strongly, with multiple indicators exceeding analysts' prior expectations, reinforcing the resilience of the economic fundamentals [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the shift in policy expectations, the British pound has appreciated by 2.5% against the US dollar this month, making it the best-performing currency among the G10 [2] - Analysts attribute the pound's strength to the Bank of England's quicker end to the rate-cutting cycle compared to other major central banks, creating a favorable interest rate differential [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming key data, including the July inflation report and preliminary Q3 GDP figures, which will inform the Bank of England's policy direction [2] - Most institutions expect the Bank of England to likely keep interest rates unchanged in the September meeting while assessing whether inflation will exert sustained upward pressure [2]

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones up 1.75%, S&P 500 up 0.93%, and Nasdaq up 0.79% [1] - European indices also performed well, with the UK FTSE 100 up 0.47%, Germany's DAX 30 up 0.81%, and France's CAC 40 up 2.33% [1] - Investors are increasingly anticipating a rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month, influenced by recent economic data and comments from officials [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak at the Jackson Hole conference, which is expected to provide critical insights into the Fed's policy direction [3] - Current market expectations indicate a 93.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September [3] - The latest Fed minutes will be closely analyzed for insights into the differing opinions among Fed officials [3] Group 3: Corporate Earnings and Financial Reports - The earnings season is nearing its end, with notable companies such as Palo Alto, Home Depot, Lowe's, Walmart, and Intuit set to report [4] - Chinese companies like Alibaba, Baidu, Xpeng Motors, and ZTO Express are also expected to disclose their earnings [4] Group 4: Commodity Market Trends - Oil prices weakened, with WTI crude down 1.69% to $62.80 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.11% to $65.85 per barrel [6] - Predictions of oversupply in the oil market are affecting sentiment, with an increase in the number of active oil drilling rigs [6] - Gold prices fell significantly, with COMEX gold futures down 3.00% to $3336.00 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and U.S. tariffs [6] Group 5: Inflation and Economic Outlook in the UK - Upcoming PMI data for France, Germany, and the Eurozone will provide insights into the economic impact of U.S. tariffs [7] - The UK is experiencing rising inflation, with the overall rate increasing from 2.3% to 3.6% since last October, and further increases are expected [7][8] - The labor market in the UK is showing signs of strain, particularly in the hospitality and retail sectors, with a significant rise in unemployment [7]

Core Viewpoint - The higher-than-expected inflation rate in the UK may lead the Bank of England to adopt a more cautious approach regarding future interest rate cuts, despite the possibility of a rate cut in August [1] Inflation Data Summary - The annual CPI inflation rate in June rose to 3.6%, up from 3.4% in May, indicating persistent cost pressures [1] - This inflation rate deviates from the Bank of England's target of 2%, suggesting that basic prices remain too firm [1] Economic Context - Global trade disruptions and rising business costs could lead to further temporary price increases during the summer [1] - However, economic downturn and a weak labor market indicate that inflation rates are likely to decline in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite a slight increase in UK inflation in June, the Bank of England may still lower interest rates in August due to a weakening labor market and expectations of inflation decreasing by the end of 2025 [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - UK inflation has shown a minor uptick, but the overall trend indicates a decline from the highs seen between 2021 and 2023 [1] - The labor market is softening, characterized by slowing wage growth and a reduction in job vacancies, which influences the Bank of England's decision-making [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The expectation is that inflation will start to recede by the end of 2025, providing a rationale for potential interest rate cuts [1] - The Bank of England is anticipated to maintain a cautious approach in its monetary policy despite the recent inflationary pressures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound has strengthened due to higher-than-expected inflation in the UK, but the increase is expected to be limited in the future [1] Inflation Data - The UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual rate rose from 3.4% in May to 3.6% in June, surpassing expectations of remaining flat [1] - This inflation rate is significantly above the Bank of England's target of 2%, which may reduce the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [1] Analyst Insights - Analyst Michael Field from Morningstar attributes the rise in the pound primarily to changes in the UK's energy price cap [1] - Field suggests that the factors driving the pound's increase are likely to dissipate over the coming months, which could allow the Bank of England to lower interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The UK inflation rate for June exceeded expectations, leading to a reduced likelihood of an interest rate cut in August, although two cuts are still anticipated by the end of the year [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Inflation Data**: The June CPI data showed a core inflation rate of 3.7%, surpassing the highest market forecast of 3.6% [1] - **Market Expectations**: Prior to the data release, the market was pricing in a 53 basis point cut by the Bank of England before the end of the year [1] - **Future Rate Cuts**: While the possibility of a rate cut in August appears limited, there remains potential for two rate cuts in the subsequent three meetings after August [1]