Group 1: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones up 1.75%, S&P 500 up 0.93%, and Nasdaq up 0.79% [1] - European indices also performed well, with the UK FTSE 100 up 0.47%, Germany's DAX 30 up 0.81%, and France's CAC 40 up 2.33% [1] - Investors are increasingly anticipating a rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month, influenced by recent economic data and comments from officials [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak at the Jackson Hole conference, which is expected to provide critical insights into the Fed's policy direction [3] - Current market expectations indicate a 93.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September [3] - The latest Fed minutes will be closely analyzed for insights into the differing opinions among Fed officials [3] Group 3: Corporate Earnings and Financial Reports - The earnings season is nearing its end, with notable companies such as Palo Alto, Home Depot, Lowe's, Walmart, and Intuit set to report [4] - Chinese companies like Alibaba, Baidu, Xpeng Motors, and ZTO Express are also expected to disclose their earnings [4] Group 4: Commodity Market Trends - Oil prices weakened, with WTI crude down 1.69% to $62.80 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.11% to $65.85 per barrel [6] - Predictions of oversupply in the oil market are affecting sentiment, with an increase in the number of active oil drilling rigs [6] - Gold prices fell significantly, with COMEX gold futures down 3.00% to $3336.00 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and U.S. tariffs [6] Group 5: Inflation and Economic Outlook in the UK - Upcoming PMI data for France, Germany, and the Eurozone will provide insights into the economic impact of U.S. tariffs [7] - The UK is experiencing rising inflation, with the overall rate increasing from 2.3% to 3.6% since last October, and further increases are expected [7][8] - The labor market in the UK is showing signs of strain, particularly in the hospitality and retail sectors, with a significant rise in unemployment [7]

金十数据7月16日讯，英国特许会计师协会的Suren Thiru表示，英国通胀率高于预期并不会阻止英国央 行在8月降息，但可能会令政策制定者对未来的降息步伐更加谨慎。6月年度CPI通胀率从5月的3.4%上 升至3.6%，这证实成本压力仍然居高不下，令人不安。这使得通胀率偏离了英国央行设定的2%的目 标，基本价格仍然过于坚挺。在全球贸易动荡和商业成本上升的情况下，物价甚至可能在夏季暂时进一 步上涨。然而，经济下滑和就业市场疲软表明通胀率将走下坡路。 分析师：英国通胀数据可能令英国央行更加谨慎 ...

金十数据7月16日讯，MHA经济顾问Joe Nellis在报告中表示，尽管英国6月通胀小幅上扬，但英国央行 仍可能在8月降息。劳动力市场走软，包括工资增长放缓和职位空缺减少，意味着决策者将预期通胀在 2025年底开始回落，这为降息提供了理由。尽管如此，物价涨幅已从2021-23年的高点回落，但抗击通 胀的战斗还远未结束，预计英国央行将继续采取谨慎态度。 分析师：英国通胀回升 但英国央行仍可能在8月降息 ...

英镑因英国通胀高于预期而走高 分析师：涨幅料将有限 金十数据7月16日讯，数据显示，英国 6月CPI年率从 5 月的 3.4% 上升至 3.6%，高于预期的持平，英镑 因此上涨。通胀率远高于英国央行 2% 的目标，可能会降低英国央行降息的可能性。不过，英镑的涨幅 仍然有限。晨星分析师Michael Field表示，英镑上涨的主要原因是英国能源价格上限的变化，"在未来 几个月应该会逐渐消失"，这将允许英国央行下调利率。 ...

分析师：英国通胀高于预期，8月降息可能性较小 金十数据7月16日讯，财经网站Forexlive分析师Giuseppe Dellamotta对英国6月CPI数据发表评论表示，在 数据公布前，市场预计英国央行年底前将降息53个基点。6月通胀数据远高于预期，核心通胀的最高预 测为3.6%（实际为3.7%）。在市场定价方面，8月降息的可能性或许较小，但基本情况仍是年底前降息 两次，因此在8月会议之后的三次会议中仍有可能降息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, suggests that persistent inflation in the UK may be linked to a tightening labor market [1] Group 1 - The ongoing inflation in the UK is potentially influenced by labor market conditions [1]

Core Insights - The Governor of the Bank of England, Bailey, indicated that food inflation is rising, but this is not a phenomenon unique to the UK [1] - The more stable components of UK inflation are gradually weakening, although the pace of this decline is very slow [1] Group 1 - Food inflation is currently on the rise in the UK [1] - The trend of rising food inflation is observed globally, not just in the UK [1] - The stable components of inflation in the UK are diminishing, but the reduction is occurring at a slow rate [1]

英国零售销售数据强于预期，但英镑几乎没有变动 金十数据5月23日讯，尽管数据显示英国4月零售销售增幅超过预期，但英镑几乎没有变动。Ebury分析 师Phil Monkhouse在一份报告中说，虽然数据令人鼓舞，但4月份高于预期的通胀可能会抑制英国央行 在几个月内再次降息的可能性。 ...

金十数据5月21日讯，荷兰国际集团经济学家James Smith在一份报告中表示，英国4月通胀数据彻底浇 灭了英国央行在6月降息的希望，不过调查显示定价能力正在减弱，8月份仍有可能降息。4月CPI同比 上涨3.5%，高于3月份的2.6%。至关重要的是，服务业通胀——英国央行最关心的通胀篮子的一部分 ——从4.7%飙升至5.4%。Smith表示："这是一个比我们或央行预期的要大得多的回升。"然而，部分上 涨是基于道路税和复活节时期，英国央行可能会对此予以忽略。他说，服务业通胀率应该在夏季回落至 4.5%，这足以在8月份降息。 荷兰国际：英国通胀数据一出，焦点转向央行8月利率决定 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of England Governor Bailey stated that tariffs and trade uncertainties are putting pressure on economic activity [1] - The overall impact on UK inflation remains unclear [1] - A significant decline in global trade prices is expected [1] Group 2 - There has been no communication regarding a trade agreement with the United States [1] - Trade agreements are welcomed as they would reduce uncertainty [1]