经济降温

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英国5月零售销售暴跌2.7%
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-07-10 13:12
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in UK retail sales, marking the largest drop in 18 months due to reduced consumer spending on food and household goods [1] - In May, UK retail sales fell by 2.7%, exceeding the forecasted decline of 0.5%, and representing the largest monthly drop since December 2023 [1] - Year-on-year, overall retail sales in May decreased by 1.3%, with food sales down by 5% and household goods sales down by 2.5%, contributing to the overall decline [1] Group 2 - The UK economy shows signs of cooling after a 0.7% growth in the first quarter, as indicated by the sharp decline in retail sales [1] - In May, the UK government borrowed £17.7 billion, surpassing the Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR) forecast of £17.1 billion, and representing an increase of £0.7 billion compared to the same month last year [1] - Public sector spending in May rose by £6.4 billion year-on-year, which was offset by a £5.7 billion increase in tax revenue, partly due to an £1.8 billion rise in national insurance contributions [1] Group 3 - The first two months of the new fiscal year saw borrowing of £37.7 billion, which is lower than the OBR's prediction of £40.7 billion [2] - The UK Treasury is under pressure to adhere to fiscal rules aimed at balancing day-to-day spending and income by the 2029-30 fiscal year while improving public services and stimulating economic growth [2] - The Chancellor announced an annual increase of £29 billion in funding for the National Health Service (NHS), while other areas of day-to-day spending will face cuts [2]
“小非农”爆冷转负!美国6月ADP就业人数骤减3.3万人
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-02 14:37
Core Points - The ADP employment report for June shows a decrease of 33,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of an increase of 95,000 jobs, marking the largest decline since March 2023 [1][3] - The data is viewed as a leading indicator for non-farm employment, indicating a rapid slowdown in private sector employment and reinforcing signals of economic cooling [3] - Despite the job losses, wage growth remains resilient, with slight slowdowns in wage increases for both current employees and job switchers [10][11] Employment Sector Analysis - The service sector experienced the most significant job losses, particularly in professional and business services, as well as healthcare and education, with reductions of 56,000 and 52,000 jobs respectively [7] - Financial sector jobs also saw a decline, with a net loss of 14,000 positions [8] - In contrast, the manufacturing and mining sectors added a total of 32,000 jobs, while the overall service sector saw a total decrease of 66,000 jobs [9] Regional Employment Trends - The Midwest and Western regions of the U.S. faced the most severe job declines, losing 24,000 and 20,000 jobs respectively, while the South was the only region to see a net increase of 13,000 jobs [9] Wage Growth Insights - Wage growth for employees remaining in their positions slightly decreased from 4.5% to 4.4%, while job switchers saw a decline from 7% to 6.8% [10] - The stability in wage growth is viewed as a positive sign for the labor market, despite the overall slowdown [11] Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the ADP report, the dollar index experienced a short-term drop of about 20 points before rebounding, currently reported at 97.064 [3] - U.S. stock indices showed mixed reactions, with the Dow Jones down 0.16%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw slight increases of 0.18% and 0.61% respectively [5][6] - Market speculation regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has intensified, with traders increasing bets on at least two rate cuts by the end of 2025 [12][13] Upcoming Economic Data - The U.S. Labor Department is set to release the June non-farm employment report, with economists predicting an addition of 110,000 jobs and a slight increase in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3% [15] - Weekly initial jobless claims are also expected to be reported, with an estimate of 240,000 claims [16]
2025美国最富有的女性名人
3 6 Ke· 2025-06-17 12:05
Core Insights - The celebrity entrepreneurship boom is cooling down, but top female stars in the film, television, and music industries continue to generate significant income despite economic downturns [2] - The threshold for inclusion in Forbes' list of America's richest self-made women has increased, with the minimum net worth rising from $300 million last year to $350 million this year [3] Group 1: Wealth Trends - Sixteen celebrities made it to the Forbes list, with a total wealth of $14.1 billion, up from $13.3 billion last year, largely due to Selena Gomez's new entry with a net worth of approximately $700 million [3] - The beauty market is experiencing a downturn, impacting the wealth of several female celebrities, including Rihanna, whose net worth decreased by nearly 30% due to poor sales performance of her beauty brand [5][10] Group 2: Business Ventures - Selena Gomez launched her beauty brand Rare Beauty in September 2020, which reported revenues of $367 million by 2023 [4] - Rihanna's lingerie brand Savage x Fenty was valued at $1 billion in early 2021, but has faced challenges, including the departure of its CEO [4][10] - Reese Witherspoon's production company Hello Sunshine was sold for an estimated $900 million, but its current valuation is projected to be less than one-third of that amount by 2025 [5][26] Group 3: Individual Celebrity Performance - Taylor Swift's wealth increased by $300 million to $1.6 billion, driven by her record-breaking Eras Tour, which grossed over $2 billion [6][13] - Kim Kardashian's net worth remains stable at $1.7 billion, with her shapewear brand Skims launching a collaboration with Nike [10] - Judy Sheindlin's wealth grew by 4% to $580 million, thanks to her ongoing successful television program [20]
经济学家:经济加速降温 英国央行或将加快降息步伐
news flash· 2025-06-10 07:43
金十数据6月10日讯,招聘平台Indeed的资深经济学家Jack Kennedy表示,英国的招聘意愿正在减弱。针 对英国国家统计局最新公布的数据,Kennedy指出,提高最低工资、大量新的工人保护措施以及雇主税 负增加等政府政策,都抑制了企业招聘员工的意愿。劳动力市场情绪普遍谨慎,全球不利因素和工人权 利法案的不确定性加剧了4月份雇主成本上升的抑制作用。工资增长和就业人数降幅超出预期,表明经 济降温的速度可能开始加快,这可能为英国央行加快降息步伐打开大门。 经济学家:经济加速降温 英国央行或将加快降息步伐 ...
以史为鉴,中美关税调降后,金属市场走向何方?
对冲研投· 2025-05-16 12:18
文 | 江露 来源 | CFC金属研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 核心观点 美国:美国滞胀风险犹存,前几次美国对外提升关税实施贸易保护政策,其意图及后续 对经济影响多样。其中美国对外关税力度越大,越容易引发贸易国反制,不利于美国及 全球经济增长,同时长期可能推高通胀。 本轮美国对外关税政策力度较大,关注落地情况,警惕关税政策或引发全球经济降温。 中国:一季度国内经济有韧性,二季度降温概率增大,全年不宜过分悲观。 资产端:关注贵金属走势对有色板块中枢的定价影响。 产业端:密切关注供应端扰动情况。 操作上:注意仓位,严控风险。 1.1 5月以来金属市场价格涨跌 � 5月以来金属市场表现-关税靴子落地提振金属市场 | 黄金 | 白银 | 铜 | 锌 | 集 | 铝 | 锡 | 氧化铝 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -3.9% | -1.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 8.7% | | 碳酸锂 | 工业硅 | 多晶硅 | 硅铁/锰硅 | 螺纹钢 | 热卷 | 煤焦 | 铁矿石 | ...