| 11/11 | 国校期货 | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月17日 | | 黄金 | ★☆★ 白银 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 铂 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜美国公布11月非农就业人口增加6.4万人好于预期的5万人，但失业率升至4.6%创2021年9月以来新高且 10月就业减少10.5万人，此外美国12月标普全球制造业PMI、服务业PMI以及10月零售销售均低于预期，数据 验证经济降温轨迹,市场维持2026年降息两次预期。黄金偏强运行逼近历史高点,如果实现突破则责金属强 势表现有望延续。 ★美国12月标普全球服务业PMI 初值52.9，创6月份以来 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices are currently around $51.39, with spot silver rising 1.7% to $50.84 per ounce, while platinum and palladium also see increases of 2.3% and 1.7% respectively [1] - Analysts suggest that gold will remain in a range-bound pattern due to the dual impact of Federal Reserve policy debates and geopolitical fluctuations [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has surged to 81%, indicating strong market belief in an imminent rate cut [1] Economic Data Release - The upcoming week will see the release of delayed economic data, including retail sales and PPI, which are expected to show weak or at least not significantly better-than-expected results [3] - If the data confirms economic cooling and manageable inflation pressures, it could solidify expectations for a December rate cut and potentially pave the way for another cut in January 2026 [3] Market Dynamics - The current silver market is characterized by a "macro-driven, event-driven" logic, with price increases primarily driven by the Fed's dovish stance, a weaker dollar, and accumulated geopolitical risk premiums [3] - The market's focus will be on upcoming PCE inflation data and GDP revision reports, which will help traders assess whether inflation is on a sustainable downward path and the prospects for an economic "soft landing" [3] Technical Analysis - Silver prices have encountered resistance around $54.4 after rising from $40, with current trading in the range of $47.8 to $53.3 [4] - The MACD indicator shows a convergence after a previous death cross, indicating a potential weakening of downward momentum, while RSI remains above 50, reflecting neutral market sentiment [4] Trading Strategy - The current trend for silver is upward, with strategies suggesting support for long positions and pressure for short positions [9] - Suggested trading plan includes a short position around $52.39 with a stop loss at $52.80 and a take profit target in the $50.30-$50.00 range [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in UK retail sales, marking the largest drop in 18 months due to reduced consumer spending on food and household goods [1] - In May, UK retail sales fell by 2.7%, exceeding the forecasted decline of 0.5%, and representing the largest monthly drop since December 2023 [1] - Year-on-year, overall retail sales in May decreased by 1.3%, with food sales down by 5% and household goods sales down by 2.5%, contributing to the overall decline [1] Group 2 - The UK economy shows signs of cooling after a 0.7% growth in the first quarter, as indicated by the sharp decline in retail sales [1] - In May, the UK government borrowed £17.7 billion, surpassing the Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR) forecast of £17.1 billion, and representing an increase of £0.7 billion compared to the same month last year [1] - Public sector spending in May rose by £6.4 billion year-on-year, which was offset by a £5.7 billion increase in tax revenue, partly due to an £1.8 billion rise in national insurance contributions [1] Group 3 - The first two months of the new fiscal year saw borrowing of £37.7 billion, which is lower than the OBR's prediction of £40.7 billion [2] - The UK Treasury is under pressure to adhere to fiscal rules aimed at balancing day-to-day spending and income by the 2029-30 fiscal year while improving public services and stimulating economic growth [2] - The Chancellor announced an annual increase of £29 billion in funding for the National Health Service (NHS), while other areas of day-to-day spending will face cuts [2]

Core Points - The ADP employment report for June shows a decrease of 33,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of an increase of 95,000 jobs, marking the largest decline since March 2023 [1][3] - The data is viewed as a leading indicator for non-farm employment, indicating a rapid slowdown in private sector employment and reinforcing signals of economic cooling [3] - Despite the job losses, wage growth remains resilient, with slight slowdowns in wage increases for both current employees and job switchers [10][11] Employment Sector Analysis - The service sector experienced the most significant job losses, particularly in professional and business services, as well as healthcare and education, with reductions of 56,000 and 52,000 jobs respectively [7] - Financial sector jobs also saw a decline, with a net loss of 14,000 positions [8] - In contrast, the manufacturing and mining sectors added a total of 32,000 jobs, while the overall service sector saw a total decrease of 66,000 jobs [9] Regional Employment Trends - The Midwest and Western regions of the U.S. faced the most severe job declines, losing 24,000 and 20,000 jobs respectively, while the South was the only region to see a net increase of 13,000 jobs [9] Wage Growth Insights - Wage growth for employees remaining in their positions slightly decreased from 4.5% to 4.4%, while job switchers saw a decline from 7% to 6.8% [10] - The stability in wage growth is viewed as a positive sign for the labor market, despite the overall slowdown [11] Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the ADP report, the dollar index experienced a short-term drop of about 20 points before rebounding, currently reported at 97.064 [3] - U.S. stock indices showed mixed reactions, with the Dow Jones down 0.16%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw slight increases of 0.18% and 0.61% respectively [5][6] - Market speculation regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has intensified, with traders increasing bets on at least two rate cuts by the end of 2025 [12][13] Upcoming Economic Data - The U.S. Labor Department is set to release the June non-farm employment report, with economists predicting an addition of 110,000 jobs and a slight increase in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3% [15] - Weekly initial jobless claims are also expected to be reported, with an estimate of 240,000 claims [16]

Core Insights - The celebrity entrepreneurship boom is cooling down, but top female stars in the film, television, and music industries continue to generate significant income despite economic downturns [2] - The threshold for inclusion in Forbes' list of America's richest self-made women has increased, with the minimum net worth rising from $300 million last year to $350 million this year [3] Group 1: Wealth Trends - Sixteen celebrities made it to the Forbes list, with a total wealth of $14.1 billion, up from $13.3 billion last year, largely due to Selena Gomez's new entry with a net worth of approximately $700 million [3] - The beauty market is experiencing a downturn, impacting the wealth of several female celebrities, including Rihanna, whose net worth decreased by nearly 30% due to poor sales performance of her beauty brand [5][10] Group 2: Business Ventures - Selena Gomez launched her beauty brand Rare Beauty in September 2020, which reported revenues of $367 million by 2023 [4] - Rihanna's lingerie brand Savage x Fenty was valued at $1 billion in early 2021, but has faced challenges, including the departure of its CEO [4][10] - Reese Witherspoon's production company Hello Sunshine was sold for an estimated $900 million, but its current valuation is projected to be less than one-third of that amount by 2025 [5][26] Group 3: Individual Celebrity Performance - Taylor Swift's wealth increased by $300 million to $1.6 billion, driven by her record-breaking Eras Tour, which grossed over $2 billion [6][13] - Kim Kardashian's net worth remains stable at $1.7 billion, with her shapewear brand Skims launching a collaboration with Nike [10] - Judy Sheindlin's wealth grew by 4% to $580 million, thanks to her ongoing successful television program [20]

Core Viewpoint - The UK economy is showing signs of accelerated cooling, which may prompt the Bank of England to expedite interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The hiring intentions in the UK are weakening, as noted by Jack Kennedy, a senior economist at Indeed [1] - Recent data from the Office for National Statistics indicates that wage growth and employment declines have exceeded expectations, suggesting a faster-than-anticipated economic slowdown [1] Group 2: Government Policies - Government policies such as increased minimum wage, new worker protection measures, and higher employer tax burdens are suppressing companies' willingness to hire [1] - The cautious sentiment in the labor market is exacerbated by global adverse factors and uncertainties surrounding worker rights legislation, contributing to rising employer costs in April [1]

Core Viewpoint - The risk of stagflation in the US remains, with significant implications from the recent tariff policies that could lead to retaliatory measures from trade partners, negatively impacting both the US and global economic growth while potentially increasing inflation in the long term [1][2]. Group 1: US Economic Outlook - The current US GDP growth rate is stable at over 2%, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, indicating a relatively healthy economy [19]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement 5-6 rate cuts by the end of 2025, although there is a possibility of accelerating these cuts to stimulate the economy [19]. Group 2: Tariff Policy Impact - The recent US tariff policies are more aggressive than previous rounds, raising concerns about their potential to cool down the global economy [2]. - Historical data shows that previous tariff increases have led to significant declines in both imports and exports, as seen during the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which resulted in a 66% drop in US imports from 1930 to 1933 [22]. Group 3: China Economic Performance - China's economy showed resilience in the first quarter, but the likelihood of a slowdown in the second quarter has increased, suggesting a cautious outlook for the year [3]. - The Chinese government has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, indicating a stable but cautious economic strategy [26]. Group 4: Commodity Market Trends - The performance of various metals since May indicates a mixed response to tariff announcements, with gold and silver prices declining by 3.9% and 1.3% respectively, while aluminum and tin saw increases of 1.7% and 1.8% [9]. - The volatility in the commodity market is expected to decrease in the second quarter, reflecting a more stable trading environment [31]. Group 5: Supply Chain and Industry Dynamics - Close attention is required on supply-side disruptions that could affect commodity pricing and availability [5]. - The influence of precious metals on the pricing dynamics of the non-ferrous sector is a critical area for monitoring [4].