大金融政策和业绩展望 20250520 摘要 • 资本市场增量资金确定性增强，主要来自中长期资金入市，如保险资金增 配权益市场和央行互换便利工具扩容试点，为权益市场带来 1,400 亿增量 资金，IPO 政策变化值得关注。 • 非银行金融机构受益于交易量改善，去年四季度至今年一季度业绩明显提 升，全年 ROE 预计维持高位，但同比增速或将下滑，高质量发展优先于增 长，稳定息差和风险控制至关重要。 • 券商 PB 处于中位数水平，估值上行需等待市场修复和政策支持；保险行 业估值修复空间更大，成本下降和收益率恢复是关键，推荐优质权重股及 红筹股，如人保财险、江苏金租等。 • 现房销售拉长房企现金流回笼时间，降低周转率和 IRR，增加资金占用， 压制净利率，中小项目受影响尤为显著，土地价款和税收延期支付等配套 政策或可缓解冲击。 • 全国现房住宅销售占比显著增加，2024 年达 33%，部分原因是小城市市 场弱势和保障性住房约束，现有 4 亿平方米现房库存压力巨大，优质房企 或受益于行业资金壁垒提高。 • 招商银行作为沪深 300 权重股，受益于主动型基金配置比例重构，高股息 优势使其内生增长稳定，无需再融资，股息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the significant inflow of medium to long-term funds into the banking sector in China during the first quarter of 2024, driven by increased investments from Central Huijin, social security funds, and insurance companies, leading to a positive performance in bank stocks [1][4]. Group 1: Central Huijin's Investment Activities - Central Huijin increased its holdings in multiple ETFs, which brought additional passive funds into the banking sector, particularly benefiting high-dividend bank stocks [1][2]. - As of the end of Q1 2024, Central Huijin held significant positions in eight bank stocks, including major state-owned banks and several national joint-stock banks, with notable increases in ETF holdings [2]. Group 2: Social Security Fund's Holdings - By the end of Q1 2024, the social security fund had significant holdings in five bank stocks, with an overall increase in the number of shares held compared to the beginning of the year, particularly in Changshu Bank [3]. Group 3: Insurance Companies' Activities - Insurance companies have shown strong interest in bank stocks, with several firms collectively acquiring stakes in five listed banks, including Agricultural Bank of China and China Merchants Bank, indicating a robust inflow of funds into the banking sector [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The valuation recovery of bank stocks is influenced by macroeconomic policies and asset quality improvements, with expectations for continued interest in high-dividend strategies in the short term [5].