刚刚过去的9月份，上海二手房网签成交量达20389套，环比8月微涨2.4%，同比去年9月则大涨27.89%。 8、9两个月份，上海二手房成交连续上涨，成交曲线微微上翘。 2025年第三季度总成交量达到59638套，同比2024年第三季度上涨10.02%。 03 新政满月 8月25日，上海颁布楼市新政，包括外环外限购松绑、成年单身视为家庭、公积金既提又贷等多项优化调整举措。 01 单日创下141天新高 9月日均网签680套，有3天日签约超千套。其中， 9月27日单日签约量达到1165套，创下近141天以来的最高纪录。 02 连续两个月上涨 随后的首个周末，上海二手房日签约量时隔61天再次破千，达到1103套。 8月29日晚间，中农工建以及招商、平安、光大等多家银行发布公告， 二套房贷利率下调，新增低至3.09%，存量低至3.36%。 9月15日，国家外汇管理局发布新规： ①境外个人凭购房合同可先行办理外汇结汇支付，备案证明后补； ②企业外汇资金使用范围扩展至经营性房产。 简而言之， 老外买房开绿灯了。 9月19日，上海优化调整房产税政策，其中主要包括: ①高层次人才和重点产业紧缺急需人才，以及居住证满3年的人， ...

压力山大 尽管今年澳洲央行已经三次降息，不少房贷家庭开始逐步感受到利率下调带来的缓解， 但整体房贷利率仍处于高位，持续挤压家庭预算。 评级机构标普数据显示： 截至7月，澳洲整体优质房贷拖欠率为0.84%， 略低于6月的0.88%和3月的0.97%，仍属较低水平。 不过，各州之间的差异较为明显： 新州（0.99%）、首都领地（1%）和维州（0.96%）的拖欠率高于全国平均， 而西澳（0.8%）、昆州（0.54%）和南澳（0.63%）的表现则更好。 在那些还贷压力最大的地区， 例如墨尔本东南部的邮编3805区域（涵盖Narre Warren、Narre Warren South和Fountain Gate）， 在今年第二季度的房贷拖欠率高达2.79%，远超全澳平均水平。 其他上榜的 "高风险" 区域还包括： Cranbourne、Pakenham、Point Cook、Hoppers Crossing，以及墨尔本北部的Craigieburn。 在悉尼西区，Casula的房贷拖欠率为2.56%， 此外还有Cambridge Gardens、Berkshire Park和中海岸的Bateau Bay等地。 | Pos ...

来源：大伟看楼市 当地时间周三午夜，美国政府时隔七年再度关门，这无疑给美国经济和金融市场带来了更多不确定性。 在华尔街分析师看来，政府关门可能会进一步巩固美联储10月降息预期。 他们表示，尤其是在美国政府关门僵局持续数天以上的情况下，美联储主席鲍威尔及其同僚可能会偏向 于采取宽松货币政策。 2025 年 10 月 LPR 下调 20-30BP 的预期，并非市场空穴来风，而是内外环境共同作用的必然结果。从 政策信号看，6-8 月间央行二季度例会、政治局会议等多次释放 "适度宽松货币政策" 信号，明确提出通 过降低融资成本激活经济活力。这一导向与四季度稳增长的现实需求高度契合 —— 三季度消费与固定 资产投资增速承压，亟需政策工具对冲经济下行压力。 外部约束的弱化更提供了操作空间。美联储开启降息周期的预期，使得中美利差收窄，人民币贬值压力 缓解，央行货币政策的独立性显著增强。与此同时，银行负债成本的持续下降奠定了降息基础：2024 年以来多次降准释放长期资金，叠加商业银行两度下调存款利率，银行综合负债成本显著降低，为 LPR 让利实体经济创造了条件。 值得注意的是，9 月 LPR "按兵不动" 实则为后续调整蓄力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article presents six policy recommendations aimed at promoting stable economic growth and addressing current economic challenges, including limited domestic demand, structural overcapacity, deflationary pressures, and unstable expectations [1][4][8]. Group 1: Policy Recommendations - Recommendation 1: Advance the government investment and financing quotas for the next year to utilize fiscal resources effectively, with an expected increase in local special bond quotas to over 4.5 trillion yuan, suggesting an early allocation of 1.5-2 trillion yuan [9][10]. - Recommendation 2: Continue to release positive signals through monetary policy, potentially lowering the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rates by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, while considering the resumption of government bond purchases [11][12]. - Recommendation 3: Lower the operational thresholds for two monetary policy tools supporting the capital market and standardize the operations of the Central Huijin Investment Company [12][13]. - Recommendation 4: Further reduce mortgage rates and optimize personal housing tax policies, including a suggested 25 basis point reduction in long-term housing provident fund loan rates [14][15]. - Recommendation 5: Increase the consumption subsidy for replacing old goods by 100 billion yuan and expand the subsidy scope to include various consumer goods [16][17]. - Recommendation 6: Strengthen fiscal and financial support, optimize tax refund services, enhance trade facilitation, and provide assistance to foreign trade enterprises and unemployed individuals [18][19][20]. Group 2: Economic Challenges - Domestic demand remains limited, with fixed asset investment growth slowing to 0.5% year-on-year from January to August, and infrastructure investment declining by 2.0% [4][5]. - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with a year-on-year drop in national commercial housing sales area of 11% in August, and real estate investment down by 12.9% from January to August [5][6]. - Credit growth is notably weak, with a decrease in credit balance for the first time since 2005, and new credit issuance in August at 590 billion yuan, below last year's already low levels [6][7]. - Deflationary pressures persist, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) falling to -0.4% year-on-year in August, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) at -2.9% [7].

连平/文 当前，国际局势仍然纷繁复杂、扑朔迷离，可以概括为"四个确定"和"三个不确定"。"四个确定"分别 是：世界经济复苏压力显著增大、关税驱动美国通胀反弹、美国经济正处于强弱换档期、美联储开启本 轮第二阶段降息。"三个不确定性"分别是：中美对等关税谈判悬念犹存、地缘政治风险多点共振前景难 料、美联储年内降息频率和幅度仍存变数。四季度外部环境确定性因素和不确定性因素复杂交织，有可 能搅动全球资本流动、市场汇率和外贸格局，从不同维度给中国经济带来结构性压力和挑战。 目前，国内需求积弱、产能结构性过剩、通货紧缩压力、预期不稳等问题依然不容忽视。三季度以来， 部分经济金融指标表现不佳：一是基建投资增速下滑，对投资增速形成阶段性拖累。1—8月固定资产投 资累计同比降至0.5%，其中基建投资（不含电力）累计同比下降至2.0%，已连续四个月环比逐月下 降，短期来看受到基建投资资金错位、部分区域高温暴雨等因素影响。从中长期来看，当前"十四五"规 划进入收官阶段，大量存量项目已进入建设后期，而"十五五"规划的新项目尚未大规模启动，出现了一 定程度上的项目衔接的空窗期，"缺优质项目"成为基建投资增长的核心矛盾。 二是房地产市场 ...

不过央行的决策显然有着多维度的考量，其中商业银行息差压力是重要因素。当前银行业净息差已降至1.45%左右的近二十年低位，而活期储蓄利率仅 0.05%，进一步下调空间极为有限。 同时，三年期、五年期储蓄利率已不足1.5%，若继续降息，可能引发储蓄资金集中流动，也需兼顾资本流动的稳定性。 近日，市场期待的新一轮降息并未如期而至，中国人民银行授权公布的贷款市场报价利率（LPR）显示，1年期与5年期以上品种分别维持在3.0%和3.5%不 变，这已是LPR连续四个月保持稳定。 此前的9月17日，美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率区间下调至4.00%-4.25%，这是2025年美联储首次降息，多家研究机构预测四季度10月、12月还 可能再有两次降息，标志着其新一轮宽松周期的开启。 在美联储降息、国内物价偏弱且房地产市场调整压力较大的背景下，市场普遍期待国内跟进降息，既为维持人民币汇率相对稳定创造条件，也为经济恢复注 入动力。 下载 The State Character of School 16 200 16 1. W KX Diale - 11-24 这一思路与政府工作报告中"盘活存量用地、收购存量商品房"的部署 ...

一图速览。 9.22 | 发布会纪要 国新办"十四五"时期 (1G 金融业发展成就发布会 中国的货币政策 坚持以我为主 兼顾内外均衡 潘功胜 中国人民银行行长 ファ - - - - - 。目肌我国金融体系思体 目前我国金融体系总体稳健, 市场运行平稳。 。6月末中国银行业总资产 截至今年6月末，中国银行业 居世界第一; 股票、债券市场 储备规模连续20年位居世界2 。科技型中小企业贷款年 科技型中小企业贷款、普惠小 过20%。 ◦ 币值稳定和金融稳定双 聚焦健全货币政策和宏观审慎 现币值稳定和金融稳定双目 度，为金融强国建设、经济高 。地方政府融资平台风险 截至今年6月末，与2023年 降超过60%，金融债务规模 方政府融资平台风险水平大幅 。多项房贷政策帮助家庭 优化调整首付比、房贷利率等 贷利率，每年可为超过500( 3000亿元。 ○ 高风险中小银行数量较 央行会同金融监管部门和地 复、兼并重组和市场退出等 行数量较峰值明显压降。 77 17 =1 /1 r ○ 保持人民币汇率的基本 坚持市场在汇率形成之中的凉 部环境, 保持了人民币汇率的 展，中国的外汇市场参与主亿 的使用也更加广泛，市场更厚 。中国 ...

9月22日，央行行长潘功胜在国新办新闻发布会上表示，"十四五"期间，在金融支持房地产风险化解 方面，优化调整首付比、房贷利率等多项政策，并降低存量房贷利率，每年可为超过5000万户家庭 减少利息支出约3000亿元。 ...

Core Insights - The article warns of a significant economic challenge for households starting in the second half of 2025, with at least half of families expected to face increasing financial pressure [1][3]. Group 1: Housing Market Impact - Rising mortgage pressures are highlighted, with over 40 million families facing mortgage rates above 5%, leading to substantial monthly payments that consume a large portion of their income [5][7]. - The decline in property values has resulted in significant asset depreciation for families, with many unable to sell properties without incurring losses [8][9]. Group 2: Asset Management Challenges - A majority of household assets are concentrated in real estate, and the drop in property prices has led to a reduction in total household wealth [8]. - Financial products that were once considered stable are now yielding low returns, prompting families to withdraw funds and move to savings accounts with minimal interest [8][10]. Group 3: Employment and Income Concerns - The job market is experiencing challenges, particularly in sectors like internet and real estate, with layoffs and reduced salaries becoming common [9]. - The competition for jobs has intensified, making it difficult for individuals to secure stable employment [9]. Group 4: Rising Living Costs - Living expenses are increasing, with essential items like vegetables and healthcare costs rising significantly, putting additional strain on household budgets [10]. - Families are facing substantial costs related to healthcare and education, which are becoming increasingly burdensome [10]. Group 5: Regional and Sectoral Disparities - Economic pressures vary by region and industry, with cities experiencing population inflows having more opportunities compared to those facing outflows [11]. - The challenges anticipated in 2025 are seen as part of the economic transition, requiring families to enhance their financial planning and risk management capabilities [11].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate cut since December 2024, reducing rates by 25 basis points, indicating a shift in focus from combating inflation to boosting employment [1] - The current economic environment is characterized by stagnant income growth, insufficient consumer confidence, and a sluggish real estate market, which are core factors constraining recovery [1] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may initiate a new round of rate cuts starting in September, potentially lowering rates three times by the end of the year, each by 25 basis points [4] Group 2 - The adjustment in interest rates is expected to significantly narrow the interest rate differential with other major economies, alleviating currency depreciation pressure and providing more operational space for monetary policy in other economies [4] - The real estate market is a key area for observing the effects of policy changes, with mortgage rate adjustments being a critical variable influencing market dynamics [6] - While lower interest rates can reduce borrowing costs, the level of housing prices is seen as the core determinant of demand release, with current weak income expectations leading to persistent market hesitation [8]