Markets are primed for Fed rate cuts. Well, at least one imminent quarter-point ease. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a better than 90% probability that the FOMC will resume its cutting cycle next month, and next Friday's Jackson Hole Analyst's Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation fo ...

Market Performance - Small-cap stocks outperformed major U.S. stock market indices on August 12, with the Russell 2000 Index gaining nearly 3%, marking its largest one-day rally since May [1] - The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) also saw a jump of about 3% [1] Inflation and Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% year over year in July, slightly below the forecast of 2.8%, while core inflation increased to 3.1% from June's 2.9% [3] - The softer inflation data has strengthened the case for potential Fed rate cuts in September, with futures markets pricing in a 94% chance of a quarter-point cut [3] Small Business Sentiment - Optimism among small business owners increased in July, with the small business optimism index climbing to 100.3, the highest level since February and above the 52-year average of 98 [5] - This rise in optimism may indicate a stabilizing business environment, positively impacting small-cap stocks and ETFs [5] ETF Performance - Invesco S&P SmallCap Industrials ETF (PSCI) rose 3.8%, focusing on 93 small-cap companies in industrial sectors [6] - Invesco S&P SmallCap Information Technology ETF (PSCT) increased by 3.7%, providing exposure to 69 small-cap tech companies [7] - Invesco S&P SmallCap Value with Momentum ETF (XSVM) gained 3.6%, tracking 122 stocks with high value and momentum scores [8] - Invesco S&P SmallCap Quality ETF (XSHQ) also rose 3.6%, holding 121 stocks with high quality scores [9][10] - First Trust Small Cap Value AlphaDEX Fund (FYT) increased by 3.5%, tracking 262 stocks from the Nasdaq US 700 Small Cap Value Index [11] Sector Trends - Financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary stocks, which make up over half of the Russell 2000, are experiencing strong rebounds [13] - Regional banks are stabilizing as credit risks recede, while manufacturing and transportation sectors benefit from improved supply chains and infrastructure spending [13] M&A Activity - There is an uptick in dealmaking within healthcare, biotech, and tech services, with large-cap companies targeting small and mid-sized firms for growth [14] - This M&A momentum is attracting active managers and hedge funds, injecting fresh liquidity into the small-cap space [14] Valuation Trends - Large-cap valuations have become stretched after a prolonged rally, while small-caps remain relatively discounted, prompting institutional investors to rotate into under-owned segments like small-caps [12]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current trends and developments in the financial sector, particularly focusing on investment opportunities and market dynamics [4]. Group 1 - The financial sector has seen significant changes in recent years, with a shift towards digitalization and technology-driven solutions [4]. - Companies are increasingly adopting innovative strategies to enhance their competitive edge and meet evolving consumer demands [4]. - The article highlights the importance of staying informed about market trends to identify potential investment opportunities [4].

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of inflation on the market and investment strategies [1][2] - It highlights the role of J.P. Morgan in analyzing inflation trends and their implications for various asset classes [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding inflation dynamics for making informed investment decisions [1][2] Group 2 - The author, Ernest Hoffman, has extensive experience in market reporting and analysis, contributing to the credibility of the insights presented [3] - The article aims to provide a comprehensive overview of current inflation trends and their potential effects on the economy [1][2] - It serves as a resource for investors looking to navigate the complexities of inflation in their investment strategies [1][2]

Market & Trade Talk Outlook - TIAA Wealth Management manages $1.4 trillion in client assets [1] - Extending the deadline for China trade negotiations would be a positive market outcome [1] - A major deal from current China trade talks is not anticipated [2] - US trade policy uncertainty is decreasing, with European and Japanese deals setting a framework [2] - Trade truce between the US and China should hold due to economic interdependencies, despite occasional flare-ups [3] Tariff Impact & Economic Growth - Tariffs of approximately 15% are being applied to major trading partners like Europe and Japan [2] - Tariffs of 19% to 20% are being applied to other Asian countries, aimed at curbing Chinese transshipment [3] - Current tariff levels of 15% to 16% on $3.1 trillion in US imports equate to about $400 billion in taxes on businesses and consumers [5] - The economy is expected to slow down to a 1% to 1.5% growth rate due to tariffs [5] Potential Economic Offsets - The market is anticipating potential Fed rate cuts, looking past inflation and focusing on a cooling labor market [6] - Deregulation and potential rise in capital expenditures could lead to an uptick in growth next year [7] - Income tax relief to households and corporations may offset some tariff costs [7][8] - Re-industrialization and manufacturing starts in the US are rising, benefiting industrial companies [9] - Reshoring is taking place, which may not be fully factored into stock prices [10]

But the market's not where you are, right, Van. Welcome. Uh, hey, Kelly, how are you.First of all, thanks for having me on and thanks for letting me one be one of your last guests before you go on leave. Uh, best of luck to your family and I hope to see you again very soon. Thank you.No one better to kick things off and and no better topic uh really than talking about, you know, Fed rate cuts because what is it, July. So, they're not priced for July. Are they priced for September. Uh, they're priced for Yea ...

Market Trends - Bitcoin's bull case appears robust due to traders anticipating increased Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 [1] - Treasury yields indicate ongoing fiscal expansion [1] - Yield differentials suggest potential Japanese Yen (JPY) strength [1] Potential Risks - JPY strength could trigger market volatility [1]

According to WSJ, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has privately advised Donald Trump against removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, citing strong economic performance, the likelihood of Fed rate cuts later this year, and potential legal and political risks. Bessent also noted that Powell's term ends in May, allowing for a natural transition. Trump described Bessent as “reassuring.”https://t.co/zcyA2C9epR ...

Market Trends & Dynamics - Markets are trying to recover after President Trump's comments on potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, causing market unease [3] - The market is closely watching the drama between Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with concerns that firing Powell would create a "mess" in both equity and bond markets [27][28] - Fed independence is seen as critical, with major banking names emphasizing its importance [29] - AI demand remains strong, with no signs of a slowdown, benefiting companies like Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor [15][16][17] Company Performance & Earnings - Lucid Group's stock surged over 25% after securing a $300 million investment from Uber for a robo-taxi program [7] - Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) now projects full-year sales growth of 30% year-over-year, up from a previous estimate in the mid-20% range, indicating strong tech demand [13][14] - PepsiCo reported better-than-feared earnings with a 9-cent earnings beat and a $400 million quarterly sales beat, maintaining its 2025 sales and profits outlooks [12] Monetary Policy & Federal Reserve - The market is pricing in 50/50 odds for a Fed rate cut in September, down from over 70% a few months ago, showing a rapidly changing outlook [34] - The Federal Reserve's independence is considered a "crown jewel" of the federal system, crucial for preserving currency strength and managing inflation and unemployment [51] - The Fed's target inflation rate is 2%, with the most recent numbers showing a 27% increase in the last month [48] Potential Risks & Concerns - Rising Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield approaching 46%, could weigh on equities [6] - Tariffs could impact the economy, with the full effects potentially hitting in the fall or even 2026 [33] - A potential third term for President Trump is viewed as less impactful on markets than interference with Fed independence [66][70]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a "sell signal" triggered by cash levels falling to 3.9% [14][15][86] Core Insights - Investor sentiment is the most bullish since February 2025, with a significant surge in profit optimism and risk appetite over the past three months [2][17] - 59% of investors believe a recession is unlikely, a notable shift from 42% in April, with 65% expecting a soft landing [3][26][27] - The most crowded trade is "short US dollar," with a net 20% overweight on Euro, the highest since January 2005 [5][55][62] Summary by Sections Macro Insights - 42% of investors expect Q2 2025 EPS to beat consensus, while 19% anticipate disappointment [30][36] - AI is perceived to be increasing productivity by 42% of investors [32][37] - Expectations for a global recession have decreased, with only 9% expecting a hard landing [26][28] Policy Insights - The trade war is viewed as the biggest tail risk, with expected final tariff rates on the Rest of the World rising to 14% [4][49][48] - 81% of investors forecast one or two rate cuts by year-end, with only 11% expecting a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting [38][44] Asset Allocation - FMS equity allocation improved to a net 2% overweight, while bond allocation remains net 4% underweight [120][121] - Investors are most overweight Eurozone equities, with a net 41% overweight, the highest in four years [63][65] - There has been a significant increase in allocation to tech stocks, with a net 14% overweight, the highest since January 2025 [68][70] Investor Sentiment - The FMS cash level has dropped to 3.9%, indicating a sell signal, with historical median losses following such signals averaging -2% [14][20][86] - Risk appetite has surged, with a net 31% of investors expecting weaker global economic growth, a significant recovery from previous months [23][92] - 68% of investors believe high-quality earnings will outperform low-quality earnings [101][103]