UK private sector activity rises in February despite ongoing job losses: S&P Global Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock UK private sector output expanded in February, according to the latest data from S&P Global reported. The Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index rose to 53.9, up from 53.7 in January, marking a 22-month high. Manufacturing output strengthened to 53.6 from 51.6 in January, a 17-month high. Services output eased slightly to 53.9 from 54.0, a 2-month low. New orders increased fo ...

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices rose to a six-month high, with benchmark Brent increasing by 0.5% to $72 a barrel, marking a weekly gain of over 6% [1] - The rise in oil prices is influenced by escalating tensions in Iran and the U.S. military buildup in the Middle East, which could impact oil supply from a region that produces about a third of the world's oil [5][6] Group 2: Stock Market Reactions - Asian shares dropped by 0.4%, following declines on Wall Street, while U.S. and European equity-index futures showed a slight increase of 0.3%, indicating potential stabilization in sentiment [2] - Wall Street experienced declines, particularly among alternative asset managers, after Blue Owl Capital Inc. restricted withdrawals from one of its funds [6] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks and Economic Indicators - The U.S. military's actions in the Middle East introduce new geopolitical risks, halting a tentative recovery in equities and dampening risk appetite [3] - Traders are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic and inflation data, especially after recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes raised concerns about price pressures [7] Group 4: Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar is on track for its best week in four months, driven by reduced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical risks [8] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by 0.9% this week, marking its largest gain since October, influenced by heightened inflation concerns and the military buildup in the Persian Gulf [9]

Core Viewpoint - The personal-consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for December is anticipated, which is a key indicator of inflation trends in the economy [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The PCE price index is a critical measure used by the Federal Reserve to gauge inflation and adjust monetary policy accordingly [1] - December's PCE data will provide insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic health [1]

Commodities - Oil prices reached year-to-date highs of US$67.01, driven by geopolitical tensions following US President Trump's warning to Iran regarding nuclear negotiations [1] Currency and Labor Market - The USD index extended its recent gains, marking a fourth consecutive day of increases with a 0.1% rise [2] - US weekly jobless claims for the week ending February 14 were reported at 206,000, down from a revised 229,000, indicating labor market resilience [2] - The US economy added 130,000 new jobs in January, with the unemployment rate decreasing to 4.3% [2] Economic Data and Forecasts - The upcoming US Q4 GDP first estimate is expected to show a growth rate of 3.0%, a deceleration from Q3's 4.4% but still considered healthy [4] - The GDP deflator is projected to decrease to 2.9% from 3.7% [4] - The PCE price index is anticipated to remain unchanged at 2.8% year-on-year, with a modest increase in month-on-month figures [5] Federal Reserve Implications - An upside surprise in PCE data could support the Fed's current stance and strengthen the USD, while softer inflation could have the opposite effect [6]

Central Banks Overview - The Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes revealed a divide among officials regarding future interest rate paths, with some open to rate hikes if inflation remains high [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde faces speculation about her potential early departure, although she stated her intention to complete her term until October 2027 [2] - The Bank of England is expected to implement two rate cuts this year, influenced by rising unemployment and softer wage growth, alongside a decrease in consumer price inflation to 3% in January [3][4] Economic Indicators - The UK's unemployment rate has reached its highest level in nearly five years, prompting market expectations for rate cuts [3] - Consumer price inflation in the UK has fallen to its lowest level in almost a year, indicating a potential easing of monetary policy [4] - KPMG UK chief economist noted signs of a softer labor market and a positive trend in inflation, suggesting more room for rate cuts [4][5]

Joining us now, it is Fox News superstar contributor and former Utah Congressman Jason Chaffitz along with another Jason, former Trump campaign and transition team senior adviser. It is Jason Miller. Uh so gentlemen, you just heard the president on that allimportant stump.Is he selling his version of affordability to Georgia voters. And does it matter. Jason Chaffitz >> got a story that's real, that's true, that's backed with facts, and and people can start to feel it in their pocketbook, especially at the ...

NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street kept calm Friday after the Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which had triggered panic in financial markets when announced last year, and stocks ticked higher. The S&P 500 rose 0.7%. It had been flipping between small gains and losses before the court’s ruling, following discouraging reports showing slowing growth for the U.S. economy and faster inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 230 points, or 0.5%, and the Nasdaq composite r ...

Group 1 - Yields on US government debt are near their lowest levels in months due to haven demand amid stock-market volatility and a tame January inflation reading, suggesting investor expectations for potential rate cuts later this year if labor-market weakness is observed [1][9] - Invesco, Carmignac, and BNP Paribas do not share the outlook of further rate cuts, citing strong economic data, including January job growth exceeding projections and significant corporate investments in artificial intelligence [2][9] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate a cautious stance on rate cuts, with some policymakers suggesting that rate hikes may be necessary if inflation remains above the 2% target [2][9] Group 2 - Macro strategists at TS Lombard recommend betting on fewer rate reductions in the second half of 2026, while Invesco's fixed-income chief strategist anticipates one rate cut this year, though the likelihood of no cuts is increasing due to robust economic data [3][6] - Carmignac's co-head of fixed income, Guillaume Rigeade, is short US Treasuries and predicts the 10-year yield could rise to 4.5% in the coming months, up from approximately 4.1% [7][9] - Recent economic data presents mixed signals, with a headline annual consumer inflation figure of 2.4% indicating cooling, yet services prices have accelerated, creating a complex environment for bond investors [8][9]

JGBs rose in price terms in the morning Tokyo session, aided by government data released earlier showing slowing inflation in Japan. ...

Key TakeawaysJapan’s National CPI slowed to 1.5% in January, marking the slowest pace of inflation in two years and signaling a potential shift in the Bank of Japan’s hawkish trajectory.Gold prices hovered near the historic $5,000 mark as traders weighed geopolitical risks involving Iran against cautious interest rate signals from the Federal Reserve.Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL) shares plunged 10% following a redemption halt at its Blue Owl Capital Corp II fund, sparking liquidity concerns across the private ...