Core Viewpoint - Vanguard has launched a new low-cost emerging markets ETF, the Vanguard Emerging Markets ex-China ETF (VEXC), which is timely given the increasing investor interest in emerging markets and potential interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Fund Details - VEXC is offered with a low expense ratio of 0.07%, significantly lower than the ETF Database Category Average of 51 basis points and the FactSet Segment Average of 46 basis points for similar funds [2] - The fund tracks the FTSE Emerging ex China Index, providing a comprehensive measure of performance for large and mid-cap companies in emerging markets, excluding China [3] - The fund is designed to complement existing U.S. equities exposure and can work alongside other international funds for broader diversification [2] Group 2: Market Context - The current market environment, characterized by global de-dollarization and monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve, makes emerging market exposure appealing, especially as these assets are often linked to the strength of local currencies [3] - Investors are increasingly seeking tailored exposure to emerging markets without the risks associated with Chinese equities, which are facing economic and geopolitical challenges [4] Group 3: Management and Advisory - The fund is advised by the Vanguard Equity Index Group (EIG), known for its leadership in equity indexing, with portfolio managers including Michael Perre, Jeffrey Miller, and John Kraynak, CFA [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the monetary policy and bond market in China, specifically focusing on the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the China Government Bond (CGB) market. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **PBOC's Easing Bias**: The PBOC maintained an easing bias during the Q3 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, emphasizing the effective implementation of existing measures. This aligns with the Q2 Monetary Policy Report, indicating limited appetite for near-term easing [1][2][2]. 2. **Economic Assessment Downgrade**: The PBOC downgraded its economic assessment, changing its language from "showing positive momentum" to "making strides while maintaining stability." This shift has led to increased expectations for monetary easing in Q4, particularly around the late-October Politburo meeting [2][2][2]. 3. **Expected Policy Cuts**: The baseline expectation is for a dual cut in Q4, consisting of a 10 basis point policy rate cut and a 50 basis point reduction in the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR), as year-over-year growth is projected to decelerate sharply towards 4% [1][2][2]. 4. **Data-Dependent Decision Making**: The PBOC's emphasis on data dependency leaves open the possibility of no action if full-year growth remains on track for the "around 5%" target [1][2][2]. 5. **CGB Market Dynamics**: The recent sell-off in the CGB market is attributed to technical and regulatory factors rather than a shift in macro fundamentals. Temporary pressures from potential tax and redemption rule changes have pushed yields above fair-value anchors [1][2][2]. 6. **Potential for CGB Purchases**: There is a lower bar for the PBOC to resume CGB purchases, but there is still little urgency. The PBOC had initiated CGB purchases last August to expand its liquidity management toolkit [3][3][3]. 7. **Regulatory Changes Impacting CGB**: Speculation regarding changes in tax treatment and new redemption fee rules for bond funds has contributed to the recent CGB sell-off. The removal of VAT exemptions on interest income from newly issued government bonds has raised concerns among investors [7][7][7]. 8. **Redemption Fee Structure**: Proposed draft rules would impose tiered redemption fees on bond funds, which could further reduce the appeal of these funds for institutional investors [9][9][9]. 9. **Market Stabilization Expectations**: If the sell-off in the CGB market continues, it is anticipated that the PBOC would intervene to prevent an abrupt rise in bond yields [7][7][7]. Other Important Considerations - The PBOC's performance evaluation for primary dealers, mainly large banks, is expected to help stabilize the bond market [7][7][7]. - About 80% of this year's government bond quota has already been issued, indicating less funding pressure in Q4 compared to the 2023-24 period [7][7][7]. - The report emphasizes that investors should consider this analysis as one of many factors in their investment decisions [5][5][5].

Core Insights - September 2025 marks a significant period for precious metals, with gold surpassing $3,700 per ounce and silver reaching $46.04 per ounce, driven by Federal Reserve monetary easing, inflation concerns, central bank purchases, and geopolitical tensions [1][2][35] Market Performance Overview - Gold has seen a remarkable rally, trading at approximately $3,796.90 on September 23, 2025, representing a 44% increase from September 2024 [2] - Silver has outperformed gold, reaching a 14-year high of $44.11 on September 22, 2025, with a year-to-date gain of over 50% [4][5] Gold and Silver Dynamics - The gold-silver ratio is currently around 86:1, indicating that silver may be undervalued compared to gold, with potential for significant appreciation if the ratio normalizes to historical averages [6][7][38] - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and projected future cuts are expected to support precious metals prices, as gold typically performs well during periods of monetary easing with inflation above 2% [8][10][11] Central Bank Activity - Central banks added 166 tonnes of gold in Q2 2025, reflecting a 33% decline from Q1 but still 40% higher than the 2010-2021 average, with Poland being the largest net purchaser [14][15][16] - The shift towards gold by central banks is driven by geopolitical concerns and a desire to diversify away from traditional currency holdings [16][17] Industrial Demand and Supply Dynamics - Silver's industrial applications are expanding, with the electric vehicle industry accounting for 2.9% of global silver demand and the solar industry for 16%, growing at 14% annually [18][19] - Supply constraints in silver production are expected to lead to a shortage, as major mining operations face challenges in increasing output [21][22] Mining Stocks and ETF Performance - Precious metals mining stocks have significantly outperformed the underlying metals, with the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index returning 52.65% year-to-date [23] - Despite strong performance, precious metals ETFs have seen outflows, indicating that many investors remain under-allocated to precious metals [25][26] Technical Analysis and Price Forecasts - Analysts have revised precious metals forecasts upward, with expectations for gold to reach $4,000 per ounce in 2026 and silver potentially testing all-time highs [32][40] - Key technical levels for gold are being monitored closely, with resistance at $3,750 and $3,850, and support at $3,550 and $3,450 [31] Investment Implications - Experts recommend a portfolio allocation of 10% to 15% in silver and no more than 20% in total for precious metals to provide diversification and inflation protection [34] - The current environment suggests a compelling contrarian opportunity for investors, as the sector remains under-owned despite strong fundamentals [39]

Monetary Policy - Mexico's central bank maintained a slower pace of monetary easing by cutting its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point [1] Economic Conditions - Economic growth in Mexico remains sluggish [1] - Trade tensions with the US persist [1]

Market Dynamics - Bitcoin has been rangebound for over ten weeks, influenced by long-term holders distributing and institutions accumulating, creating a deadlock [1][2][3] - Long-term holders (LTHs) started distributing Bitcoin when it broke above $110,000, but this distribution has decelerated recently [4][5] - Institutions, including ETF buyers and treasury companies, are aggressively buying Bitcoin, offsetting the supply from long-term holders [6] - Seasonality favors Bitcoin, with October and November historically being its two strongest months, averaging returns of +22.9% and +35.7% respectively [1][7] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve (Fed) has begun an easing cycle, cutting policy rates, which historically benefits Bitcoin as investors venture out on the risk curve [1][8] - Loosening credit conditions and a resilient economy are likely to drive another explosive leg higher for Bitcoin in Q4 [8][10] Technical Analysis - Long-term holder distribution is cooling, with net outflows from LTH supply slowing down [6] - Bitcoin's consolidation period suggests a potential for a violent breakout, with the odds favoring another leg higher in Q4 [10]

Core Insights - The U.S. Federal Reserve has initiated its first rate cut of 2025, reducing the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, with indications of two more cuts by year-end, which may enhance growth prospects for quantum computing companies [1][3] - The Trump administration is reportedly developing a comprehensive quantum computing mandate to promote federal adoption of quantum systems and cryptographic advancements [2] - Companies like IonQ and Quantum Computing Inc. are expected to benefit from the combination of monetary easing and supportive policies, encouraging selective investment in these firms [3] IonQ Highlights - IonQ is enhancing its quantum computing capabilities through strategic acquisitions, including Oxford Ionics and Vector Atomic, aiming to scale to 40,000–80,000 logical qubits by 2030 while maintaining low costs and strong intellectual property [4] - The company is achieving practical quantum advantages across various sectors such as drug discovery and national security, with partnerships with major firms like AstraZeneca and AWS, which bolster revenue generation and market trust [5] - IonQ is developing a secure quantum Internet through Quantum Key Distribution products and partnerships, expanding its revenue streams into quantum networking and space integration [6] Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) Developments - QUBT is gaining traction in commercial applications, securing orders for quantum technologies from institutions like Delft University of Technology and a top U.S. bank, indicating real-world deployment of its products [10] - The company’s thin-film lithium niobate photonic chip foundry has become operational, enhancing the integration of photonic chips into quantum machines and creating new revenue opportunities across various sectors [11] - Despite progress, QUBT faces challenges related to the successful integration of its technologies and high cash burn, which may impact its execution and adoption [13] Comparative Analysis - IonQ has shown a significant stock performance increase of 94.3% recently, outperforming QUBT's 40.8% rise, indicating stronger market confidence in IonQ [15] - IonQ is viewed as a more compelling investment due to its diversified roadmap and tangible revenue opportunities, while QUBT is considered more speculative with execution risks and a high cash burn [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - Sweden's central bank has reduced its key policy rate to 1.75%, indicating that this cut may represent the final monetary easing of the current cycle [1] Group 1 - The key policy rate has been lowered to 1.75% [1] - The central bank suggests that this rate cut could signify the end of the current cycle of monetary easing [1]

Market Overview - U.S. equity markets reached new all-time highs for the third consecutive session, driven by optimism surrounding the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and potential further monetary easing [1][2][15] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 46,315.27, up 0.4%, while the S&P 500 reached 6,664.36, up 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite finished at 22,631.48, up 0.7% [2] Sector Performance - Technology stocks led the market, with the Technology Select Sector SPDR gaining 1%, while the Energy Select Sector SPDR declined by 1.3% [3] - The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) decreased by 1.6% to 15.45, indicating a calm trading environment despite record highs [3] Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data includes the preliminary S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI, as well as the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is expected to show a monthly rise of 0.25% and an annual increase of 3% [5][6] Corporate News - Nvidia's stock surged approximately 4% following a major partnership with OpenAI, planning to invest up to $100 billion in data center infrastructure [7] - Oracle's shares rose 4% after confirmation of receiving TikTok's algorithm for U.S. operations, alongside the announcement of new co-CEOs [8] - Tesla's stock climbed about 2% due to optimism regarding self-driving technology, while Apple shares increased by 3.5% following price-target hikes [9] - Pfizer's stock rose 2.1% after announcing an intent to acquire Metsera for an initial value of $4.9 billion, potentially increasing by nearly 50% upon federal approval of drug candidates [10] - ODP's shares jumped 33.2% following an acquisition agreement valued at approximately $1 billion, while Anywhere Real Estate surged 53.5% after an all-stock acquisition deal [11] Market Sentiment - Overall market sentiment remains bullish, supported by positive corporate news and expectations for continued monetary easing from the Federal Reserve [15]

Market Overview - Global financial markets are showing mixed performance due to monetary policy shifts, tech sector developments, and geopolitical changes [2] - Gold and Japanese equities are experiencing strong upward momentum, while US stock futures have declined [2] Gold Market - Gold has achieved its fifth consecutive weekly gain, trading near record highs, driven by the Federal Reserve's 25-basis-point rate cut and expectations of further easing [3] - The precious metal is benefiting from safe-haven demand as investors await US inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's economic outlook [3] Japanese Market - Japanese stocks are performing well, with the Nikkei Index rising 1% to 45,499.10 points, following the Bank of Japan's decision to gradually sell its ETF holdings [4] - This divestment is seen as a move towards normalizing the central bank's balance sheet, contributing to market confidence [4] Technology Sector - Samsung Electronics shares increased by 3% after passing NVIDIA's qualification test for its 12-layer HBM3E products, crucial for advanced computing systems [5] - This qualification positions Samsung as a key supplier in the competitive high-bandwidth memory market, particularly for AI and graphics processing [5] US Market Concerns - US stock futures have dipped, with S&P 500 futures down 0.11% and Nasdaq futures down 0.07%, influenced by concerns over a proposed $100,000 H-1B visa fee [6] - The new fee raises apprehensions in the US tech industry, which relies heavily on H-1B visa holders, potentially impacting tech hiring and the $280 billion IT sector in India [6] Regional Market Performance - Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.5% to 8,816.10, reflecting positive sentiment in the market [7] - The New Zealand Dollar fell to a two-week low of $0.5853, indicating currency weakness [8] Geopolitical Developments - Diplomatic meetings involving South Korea, the US, and Japan are scheduled to address regional and global issues during the U.N. General Assembly [8] - North Korea's Kim Jong Un reiterated the country's stance against denuclearization, emphasizing military strengthening [8]

Group 1 - The U.S. Federal Reserve has lowered its benchmark interest rate for the first time since December, indicating that more cuts may follow to support a struggling labor market [1][10] - The Fed's rate cut is expected to benefit interest-rate sensitive sectors, particularly small-cap stocks and consumer discretionary shares, with homebuilders being a notable beneficiary [2][10] - The S&P 500 reached record high levels, up over 13% year-to-date, following the Fed's decision to cut the benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage points to the 4-4.25% range [2][11] Group 2 - The PHLX Housing index has increased by 15% this quarter, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of over 7%, although it still lags behind on a year-to-date basis [5][11] - Major homebuilders such as DR Horton, KB Home, and Toll Brothers have seen significant gains, with DR Horton up over 30% and both KB Home and Toll Brothers up over 20% this quarter [5][11] - Home improvement retailers Lowe's and Home Depot have also performed well, with increases of approximately 20% and 13% respectively this quarter [5][11] Group 3 - The contract rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has fallen to 6.39%, the lowest since early October 2024, with projections suggesting it could approach 6% by year-end [6][11] - The housing market is currently facing challenges, with single-family homebuilding dropping to a near 2.5-year low in August, indicating weakness in the sector [11] - Investors are hopeful that lower mortgage rates could revitalize the housing market, with a target of bringing rates down to the 5% range being seen as crucial [7][11] Group 4 - The relationship between the Fed funds rate and mortgage rates is complex, as mortgage rates are more closely tied to the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which was around 4.13%, down from 4.6% in May [8][11] - Upcoming economic data, including existing and new home sales, will provide further insights into the housing market, with a good housing turnover being beneficial for overall economic activity [9][11] - The Fed's approach to rate reductions remains uncertain due to persistent inflation, which could lead to volatility in economic data related to the labor market and inflation [9][11]