Group 1 - Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Russian troops have gathered up to 100,000 personnel in the Pokrovsk direction, preparing for offensive actions, with the situation being most severe in that area [2] - Zelensky also mentioned that the situation in the Dnipropetrovsk region is under control [3] - A recent airstrike by Russian forces on Kyiv resulted in 23 deaths and 53 injuries, with 225 residential buildings damaged [5][6] Group 2 - Russian officials claim that damage to civilian infrastructure is caused by Ukraine's actions, asserting that their military operations target only military facilities [7][8] - The Russian Defense Ministry reported successful strikes on Ukrainian military enterprises and air bases, claiming all designated targets were hit [9] - Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov indicated that there is no prepared agenda for a meeting between Russian and Ukrainian leaders, suggesting that discussions should first elevate the negotiation teams [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In August, the oil price center declined, with WTI falling below the strong support level of $65. In September, as the US crude oil consumption peak season ends, the demand - side support for oil prices will gradually weaken. Along with OPEC's continued production increase, the pressure of supply surplus is expected to rise, and the oil price center is likely to continue to decline. The key price level to watch is $60, which is close to the break - even point of new US shale oil wells. The US crude oil production will be a major variable on the supply side. Potential positives in September include the high probability of the Fed starting to cut interest rates and OPEC possibly suspending additional production increases; potential negatives mainly concern the situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. If the conflict ends, oil prices may drop significantly. The recommended monitoring ranges are WTI [55, 65] and SC [420, 500] [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与展望 - **Crude Oil Market Review and Outlook**: In August, the oil price center moved down. In September, demand support will weaken, supply surplus pressure will increase, and the oil price center is expected to continue to decline. Key price to watch is $60, and the US crude oil production is a major supply - side variable. Potential positives and negatives exist, and the monitoring ranges are given [9]. 3.2宏观经济 - **IMF's Economic Growth Forecast**: On July 29, the IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.2% to 3% due to China's better - than - expected economic growth and lower - than - expected Sino - US tariff levels [22]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Expectations**: Fed Chair Powell indicated that the risk of the employment market may lead the Fed to cut interest rates in September. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate in September is 8.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 91.1%. For October, the probability of maintaining the rate is 4.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 48.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 46.8% [9]. 3.3供需和库存 - **Supply**: In July 2025, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 262,000 barrels per day to 27.543 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's production rose by 170,000 barrels per day to 9.526 million barrels per day, Iraq's decreased by 51,000 barrels per day to 3.902 million barrels per day, and the UAE's increased by 109,000 barrels per day to 3.169 million barrels per day. As of the week ending August 22, US crude oil production was 13.44 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 57,000 barrels per day [10][35][40]. - **Demand**: In July 2025, EIA, OPEC, and IEA monthly reports forecasted the global crude oil demand in 2025 to be 103.54 million, 105.13 million, and 103.74 million barrels per day respectively, with year - on - year increases of 80,000, 129,000, and 70,000 barrels per day compared to 2024. As of the week ending August 22, domestic crude oil processing volume was 14.4842 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,700 tons. In July, crude oil imports were 47.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.50%, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 327.02 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.89% [10][44][57]. - **Inventory**: As of the week ending August 22, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.4 million barrels to 418.29 million barrels, strategic crude oil reserves increased by 800,000 barrels to 404.2 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.2 million barrels to 222.33 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.8 million barrels to 114.24 million barrels. China's port inventory increased to 28.737 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 471,000 tons, and Shandong refinery in - plant inventory increased to 2.52 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,000 tons [10][65][71]. 3.4价差和持仓 - **Price Spreads**: WTI's monthly spread has fallen to a low level. As of August 28, WTI M1 - M2 was $0.53 per barrel, and M1 - M6 was $1.58 per barrel. The domestic monthly spread has turned negative. The refined oil cracking spread in the US has declined, while the domestic refined oil cracking spread has remained stable [84][87][89]. - **Positions**: Information on WTI and Brent positions is mentioned, and the SC warehouse receipt volume and total positions have increased [91][94][96]. 3.5总结 - **Strategies**: Different investment strategies are recommended, including futures unilateral, options unilateral, options strategies, and hedging strategies, with corresponding recommended intensities [101].

土耳其总统府办公室当天在社交媒体上说，埃尔多安表示，土耳其已做好准备，尽一切可能为推动 高层接触提供便利。俄乌冲突有可能达成公正的解决方案，双方之间的谈判需要继续，并需进一步加强 磋商。 新华社伊斯坦布尔8月29日电 （记者 王腾飞）土耳其总统府28日说，总统埃尔多安当天与乌克兰总 统泽连斯基通电话，讨论俄乌冲突问题。 ...

Group 1 - Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine, marking a significant escalation in the conflict and damaging multiple buildings in Kyiv, including those used by EU and UK officials [2][3] - The attack involved 598 drones and 31 missiles, with Ukraine claiming to have intercepted 26 missiles and 563 drones, while at least 21 casualties were reported [2][4] - Ukrainian President Zelensky described the attack as the second largest since the conflict began in February 2022, emphasizing Russia's choice of violence over negotiation [2][3] Group 2 - The attack occurred shortly after a summit between Trump and Putin, indicating Russia's disregard for peace efforts and its intent to continue military actions against Ukraine [3][4] - EU officials confirmed damage to their office in Kyiv but reported no casualties, while the EU Commission President vowed to accelerate new sanctions against Russia [4] - Discussions are underway regarding the potential use of frozen Russian central bank assets, amounting to $300 billion, as part of the new sanctions strategy [4]

袭击发生后，泽连斯基与美国总统特朗普和欧委会主席冯德莱恩举行了电话会议。 白宫称，特朗普说对俄此举"不满"但"不惊讶"；冯德莱恩重申欧盟对乌安全保障，说要把乌克兰打造 成"钢铁豪猪"。俄方则回应称，基辅民用基础设施受损是由于乌方使用防空系统和电子战手段造成的。 欧盟"三板斧"回击 当地时间8月28日凌晨，据乌克兰总统泽连斯基和乌克兰基辅市军事管理局发布的消息，俄军使用导弹 和无人机对基辅发动空袭。欧盟官员当天表示，欧盟驻基辅代表处大楼遭到损坏。 加码制裁动俄资产武装乌克兰 欧盟委员会负责睦邻扩大事务的委员玛尔塔·科斯28日在社交媒体上证实，由于俄罗斯凌晨对基辅发动 大规模空袭，欧盟驻基辅代表处大楼遭到损坏。 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩发表声明称，她对此感到愤怒。冯德莱恩说，欧盟将很快对俄罗斯实施进一步 制裁，并正在推进使用冻结俄罗斯资产用于乌克兰重建。 会谈后冯德莱恩在社交媒体表示，俄罗斯必须重返谈判桌，以推动实现对乌克兰的公正而持久的和平。 欧方将为乌克兰提供坚实而可信的安全保障，使乌克兰成为一只"钢铁豪猪"，确保其自卫能力。 冯德莱恩强调，欧洲将全力发挥作用，包括利用欧盟防务工具来进一步增强乌克兰武装部队的战 ...

Group 1 - Ukrainian President Zelensky announced a meeting between Ukrainian and US delegations on September 29 in New York to discuss security guarantees and military, political, and economic support [1][3] - Zelensky appointed former Deputy Prime Minister Stefanishina as the new Ukrainian ambassador to the US, emphasizing the importance of implementing agreements with the US, particularly in defense [1][3] - The US government, represented by Vice President Vance, stated that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has reached a point where a peaceful resolution is necessary, expressing frustration over the lack of a concrete plan to address the situation [4] Group 2 - Reports indicate that the agenda for the Ukrainian-US discussions includes security guarantees and the potential for a bilateral meeting between Zelensky and Russian President Putin, although no commitments from Russia have been made [3] - The US Treasury Secretary emphasized the need for European support in imposing sanctions on Russia, indicating that the US cannot bear the burden alone [4] - Russian officials reiterated their intention to continue negotiations and highlighted security guarantees as a critical issue in resolving the Ukraine crisis, while also confirming ongoing military actions [5]

2003年1月，在奠定法德成为欧洲一体化"发动机"基础的文件《爱丽舍条约》签署40周年之际，时任法 国总统希拉克和德国总理施罗德决定建立法德部长理事会机制，会议成员包括法德两国领导人及部长。 理事会每年轮流在法国和德国举行一至两次会议。 （文章来源：新华社） 新华财经巴黎8月28日电（记者唐霁）法国总统马克龙28日在法国南部布雷冈松堡的避暑官邸会晤来访 的德国总理默茨。马克龙在会晤前向媒体表示，法德致力于让欧洲在俄乌冲突中坚持自身地缘政治立 场，让欧洲"重新武装自己"，确保自身安全。 默茨在会晤前对媒体表示，虽然美国总统特朗普希望找到解决俄乌冲突的方案，但是俄罗斯总统普京和 乌克兰总统泽连斯基"显然不会在近期举行会晤"。 法德两国领导人定于29日在法国东南部城市土伦共同主持第25届法德部长理事会，并召开法德防务与安 全理事会。马克龙向媒体介绍说，29日会议的内容将包括提升欧洲竞争力，加强欧洲安全和防务，推进 法德两国在人工智能、量子科技、国防工业等领域开展具体合作等。 ...

当地时间8月28日，俄罗斯外交部发言人扎哈罗娃发表评论，回应关于俄驻欧盟使团团长因当日凌晨俄 导弹袭击导致欧盟驻基辅代表处建筑受损被召至欧盟对外行动署一事的媒体提问。她表示，俄方再次重 申，俄罗斯武装力量的打击目标仅为军事设施和乌军的后勤保障设施，民用基础设施受损是由于乌方使 用防空系统和电子战手段造成的。 28日，俄罗斯国防部发布战报称，俄军当天凌晨对乌克兰军工企业和空军基地实施了集群打击。乌总统 泽连斯基当日与土耳其总统埃尔多安通话时称，俄对乌发动袭击的目标包括土耳其在乌企业、阿塞拜疆 驻乌大使馆、欧盟驻乌代表团、英国文化协会驻乌机构以及多个居民区。乌克兰方面28日晚间称，俄对 基辅空袭已致19人死亡。 扎哈罗娃称，欧盟官方代表以及亲欧媒体关于所谓俄罗斯对民用目标发动袭击的喧嚣，与欧盟领导层及 其成员国对乌军系统性、有针对性地袭击民用基础设施以及基辅政权在俄罗斯境内实施的恐怖主义行为 （导致平民伤亡）的沉默形成鲜明对比。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 扎哈罗娃称，尽管俄方已在联合国、欧安组织等众多国际场合多次提及相关事实，但欧盟方面仍然保持 沉默。俄罗斯驻欧盟使团临时代办已向欧盟方面传达了上述立场。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between Luxembourg's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Jean Asselborn, and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba focused on discussing the timing and location for potential peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine [1] Group 1 - Luxembourg's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Jean Asselborn, visited Ukraine and embraced Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba during their meeting [1] - The discussions included the challenges of resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with former President Trump commenting on the mutual animosity between Putin and Zelensky [1] - Putin has indicated that a meeting with Zelensky is possible, but conditions must be created for such talks to occur [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the appointment of a new Ukrainian ambassador to the United States, which is seen as a strategic move to strengthen Ukraine's relationship with the U.S. and enhance security cooperation [3][4]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky announced the appointment of former Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna as the new ambassador, emphasizing the importance of implementing agreements with the U.S., particularly in defense [3][4]. - A Ukrainian delegation is scheduled to meet with U.S. representatives to discuss security guarantees, indicating a proactive approach to military, political, and economic support from the U.S. [5]. Group 2 - The Russian side, represented by President Putin's spokesperson Peskov, stated that there is no confirmed date for the next round of negotiations with Ukraine, highlighting ongoing communication between the two parties [2][6]. - Peskov emphasized the importance of security guarantees in resolving the conflict, indicating that this issue remains a critical topic for both sides [6][7]. - The Russian government appreciates former President Trump's efforts to resolve the conflict and hopes for continued diplomatic engagement [7].