Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - None provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market is actively traded, with the comprehensive price of CEA dropping significantly and testing the lower support at 76 yuan/ton [3]. - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap wait and see temporarily and purchase when the price drops to an appropriate level [3]. - The remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quota in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 050-0.6 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [3]. - The newly included industries in 2024 have no quota gap for compliance, and the gap in the national carbon market may be lowered, but it has limited impact on the supply-demand balance; the expansion plan brings short-term negative sentiment and may accelerate the release of the mandatory circulation quota, with the short-term support for the comprehensive price around 76 yuan/ton [4]. - Attention should be paid to the trading activity around the pre-allocation deadline of the 2024 quota (April 20); the exhaustion point of the mandatory circulation quota is postponed, and the upward momentum may appear after Q2 of 2025 [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - For CEA, CEA19 - 20 has a nearly 9% supplementary decline, and CEA22 and 23 have a decline of over 1%. The listed volume is 246,000 tons, and the bulk volume is 300,000 tons [3]. - For CCER, the listed agreement trading volume is 300 tons, and the average trading price is 98 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.47% [3]. Carbon Quota (CEA) Information | Carbon Quota | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Change (%) | New - Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | Bulk Average Trading Price (yuan/ton) | Total Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | Listed Agreement Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | Bulk Agreement Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | Total Transaction Amount (10,000 yuan) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 19 - 20 | 76.00 | -8.98% | - | N/A | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 10.31 | | 21 | 77.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 22 | 77.00 | -1.10% | 0.00 | N/A | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 7.70 | | 23 | 77.39 | -1.71% | 0.39 | 83.33 | 54.60 | 24.60 | 30.00 | 4403.66 | [6][7] Voluntary Emission Reduction (CCER) Information - The average trading price is 98 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.47%. The transaction amount is 300 yuan, the trading volume is 300 tons, and the cumulative trading volume is 1.577 million tons [8]

今日全国碳市场综合价格行情为：开盘价77.40元/吨，最高价77.59元/吨，最低价76.78元/吨，收盘价 76.85元/吨，收盘价较前一日下跌3.07%。 2025年1月1日至4月22日，全国碳市场碳排放配额成交量9,758,717吨，成交额827,109,754.97元。 截至2025年4月22日，全国碳市场碳排放配额累计成交量640,027,381吨，累计成交额43,859,836,858.48 元。 今日挂牌协议交易成交量248,357吨，成交额19,217,682.00元；大宗协议交易成交量300,000吨，成交额 24,999,000.00元。 今日全国碳排放配额总成交量548,357吨，总成交额44,216,682.00元。 ...

金十期货4月22日讯，今日全国碳市场综合价格行情为：开盘价77.40元/吨，最高价77.59元/吨，最低价 76.78元/吨，收盘价76.85元/吨，收盘价较前一日下跌3.07%。今日挂牌协议交易成交量248357吨，成交 额19217682.00元；大宗协议交易成交量300000吨，成交额24999000.00元。今日全国碳排放配额总成交 量548357吨，总成交额44216682.00元。 （全国碳交易） 今日全国碳市场收盘价76.85元/吨，较前一日下跌3.07% ...

国家程安期货 发布日期:2025-04-21 核心 逻辑 全国碳市场行情简报 (2025年第61期) CEA综合价格跌破80元 策略 建议缺口企业在76至80元/吨区间分批逢低采购 (1)2025年剩余40%强制流通配额只能满足部分市场需求，约0.5°0.6亿吨市场需求或由 盈余企业自愿卖出来满足,2025年市场抛压将小于2024年四季度。 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 2新纳入行业2024年度履约不设配额缺口,全国碳市场缺口略有下调,但对供需平衡, 影响有限;扩固方案带来短期情绪利空,或加速强制流通配额释放,综合价格短期支 撑位76元/吨附近。 3关注2024年度配额预分配期限前后（4月20日）的成交活跃度：强制流通配额耗尽节 点延后,强势上涨动能或出现在25Q2及以后。 风险 1、企业非理性导致配额到期作废；2、企业不看好未来市场选择全部地售变现；3、企 业2023年度、2024年度未足额履约;4、未考虑跨行业回购配额规避结转。 | | 碳配额19-20 | 碳配额21 | 碳配额22 | 碳配额23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元/吨 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 4 月 20 日 全国碳市场：发电行业配额预分配在即，关注 市场活跃度 唐惠珽 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021216 tanghuiting@gtht.com 2、新纳入行业 2024 年度履约不设配额缺口，全国碳市场缺口略有下调，但对供需平衡影响有限；扩 围方案带来短期情绪利空，或加速强制流通配额释放，综合价格短期支撑位 76 元/吨附近。 3、关注 2024 年度配额预分配期限前后（4 月 20 日）的成交活跃度；强制流通配额耗尽节点延后， 强势上涨动能或出现在 25Q2 及以后。 ◼ 推荐策略 建议缺口企业在 76 至 80 元/吨区间分批逢低采购。 报告导读： ◼ 本周价格走势：CEA 加速下跌，CCER 成交清淡 本周，全国碳市场综合价格加速下跌，收盘价 80.38 元/吨，周环比-5.79%，年同比-13.21%。分年 份看，碳配额 23 环比上周下跌 4.53%，碳配额 22 补跌超 9%。全国温室气体自愿减排交易市场最新单日 成交均价 101.22 元/吨，周环比+7.8%。 全国碳市场周度总成交量约 150 万吨，环比上周增长 319%，发电行业配额预分 ...

今日全国碳排放配额总成交量162,649吨，总成交额13,060,807.40元。 今日挂牌协议交易成交量62,649吨，成交额5,160,807.40元；大宗协议交易成交量100,000吨，成交额 7,900,000.00元。 截至2025年4月14日，全国碳市场碳排放配额累计成交量637,976,801吨，累计成交额43,691,443,111.58 元。 2025年1月1日至4月14日，全国碳市场碳排放配额成交量7,708,137吨，成交额658,716,008.07元。 今日全国碳市场综合价格行情为：开盘价85.30元/吨，最高价85.38元/吨，最低价83.63元/吨，收盘价 83.66元/吨，收盘价较前一日下跌1.95%。 ...

Core Insights - The national carbon market in China is a government-led trading system aimed at reducing carbon emissions, officially launched on July 16, 2021, covering 2,225 enterprises in the power sector with an annual emission coverage of approximately 4.5 billion tons, making it the largest carbon trading market globally [1][2] Group 1: Key Terminology - Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA) allows companies to emit a specific amount of CO₂, where 1 allowance equals 1 ton of CO₂ equivalent (tCO₂e). Companies must hold enough allowances to cover their emissions by the end of the compliance period to avoid penalties [3][4] - Carbon Allowance refers to the emissions permits allocated to companies by the government, with a future trend of decreasing free allowances and increasing paid allowances to incentivize emission reductions [5] - Carbon Trading involves the buying and selling of carbon allowances or reduction credits, primarily through agreements, with potential future inclusion of financial instruments like futures and options [6] Group 2: Market Mechanisms - CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) represents carbon credits generated from projects like renewable energy and forestry, which can offset up to 5% of a company's emissions [7] - The MRV (Monitoring, Reporting, Verification) system ensures the accuracy of carbon emission data, serving as the foundation for fair market operations [8] - Carbon Price is the market price for carbon allowances, currently ranging from 50 to 80 RMB per ton, significantly lower than the EU price of approximately 80 Euros per ton, with expectations of gradual increases as policies tighten [9][10] Group 3: Goals and Strategies - Peak Carbon refers to the point at which CO₂ emissions reach their highest level before beginning to decline, with China committing to achieve this by 2030 [11][12] - Carbon Neutrality aims for net-zero emissions by 2060 through emission reductions, carbon sinks, and technological innovations [15] - Carbon Sink involves natural processes, such as forests absorbing CO₂, which can be developed into carbon credit projects [16] Group 4: Financial and Regulatory Aspects - Carbon Finance encompasses financial innovations related to the carbon market, enhancing market liquidity and reducing compliance costs for companies [17] - Carbon Footprint measures the total carbon emissions produced directly or indirectly by individuals, companies, or products throughout their lifecycle [18] - Carbon Border Tax is a proposed tariff on high-carbon imports to balance domestic and international carbon costs, with potential implications for high-carbon exporting companies [19] Group 5: Monitoring and Verification - Carbon Monitoring utilizes technologies like sensors and satellites to track carbon emissions and greenhouse gas concentrations, with pilot projects already underway in 16 cities [20][21] - Carbon Accounting systematically quantifies carbon emissions for companies or products over a specific period, adhering to international standards [22] - Carbon Verification involves third-party audits of carbon emission reports to ensure data accuracy, a requirement for major emitters in the national carbon market [27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a record high net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.37 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 95.2% [1] - The increase in revenue to 156.17 billion yuan, up 16.9% year-on-year, was driven by both volume and price increases across product lines, particularly in alumina [1] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 1.02 HKD per share, resulting in a total dividend of 1.61 HKD per share for 2024, which corresponds to a dividend yield of 10.7% based on the closing price on March 14, 2025 [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 156.17 billion yuan, a 16.9% increase from 2023, and a net profit of 22.37 billion yuan, a 95.2% increase year-on-year [1] - The sales volume of aluminum alloy products reached 5.837 million tons, up 1.5%, with an average selling price of 17,550 yuan per ton, a 6.6% increase [1] - The alumina sales volume was approximately 10.921 million tons, up 5.3%, with an average selling price of 3,420 yuan per ton, a 33.6% increase [1] - The sales volume of aluminum alloy processing products was 766,000 tons, up 32.1%, with an average selling price of 20,324 yuan per ton, a 2.5% increase [1] Market Outlook - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply-demand balance is expected to improve from 2024 to 2026, with projected surpluses of 490,000 tons and 240,000 tons, followed by a shortage of 350,000 tons in 2026 [2] - The report indicates that the central price of electrolytic aluminum is likely to rise due to a weakening in coal prices, which supports profit expansion in the electrolytic aluminum segment [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been adjusted upwards, with expected net profits of 22.49 billion yuan and 24.73 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting increases of 3.2% and 9.8% [3] - The report introduces a new profit forecast for 2027, estimating a net profit of 27.30 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 5.9, 5.4, and 4.9 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future returns [5]. Core Views - The company achieved a record high net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.37 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 95.2%, driven by both volume and price increases in its products [1]. - The report highlights a favorable supply-demand balance in the domestic electrolytic aluminum market from 2024 to 2026, with expected price increases due to a tightening supply situation [2]. - The company is positioned as an integrated leader in the aluminum industry, with a strong focus on shareholder returns, proposing a final dividend of 1.02 HKD per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 10.7% [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 156.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.9% [1]. - The sales volume of aluminum alloy products reached 5.837 million tons, up 1.5% year-on-year, with an average selling price of 17,550 yuan per ton, a 6.6% increase from 2023 [1]. - The average selling price of alumina increased by 33.6% to 3,420 yuan per ton, with sales volume of approximately 10.921 million tons, up 5.3% year-on-year [1]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects net profits for 2025 and 2026 to be 22.49 billion yuan and 24.73 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting increases of 0.52% and 9.97% [4]. - The estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5.9, 5.4, and 4.9 times, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation given the company's leading position in the aluminum industry [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a decline in coal prices, which is expected to support profit expansion in the electrolytic aluminum segment [2]. - The integration of the electrolytic aluminum sector into the national carbon market is anticipated, which may lead to increased costs for producers relying on thermal power, thereby promoting energy-saving measures [3].