2025年1月1日至5月12日，全国碳市场碳排放配额成交量13,871,662吨，成交额1,122,270,388.04元。 截至2025年5月12日，全国碳市场碳排放配额累计成交量644,140,326吨，累计成交额44,154,997,491.55 元。 今日全国碳排放配额总成交量325,608吨，总成交额23,055,914.00元。 "全国碳交易"微信公众号消息，今日全国碳市场综合价格行情为：开盘价70.02元/吨，最高价70.24元/ 吨，最低价69.96元/吨，收盘价70.14元/吨，收盘价较前一日上涨0.40%。 今日挂牌协议交易成交量125,608吨，成交额8,855,914.00元；大宗协议交易成交量200,000吨，成交额 14,200,000.00元。 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The remaining 40% of mandatory circulation quotas in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.4 - 0.5 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [3] - The new industries included in 2024 have no quota gap for compliance, and the gap in the national carbon market may be slightly adjusted downwards, but the impact on the supply - demand balance is limited; the expansion plan brings short - term emotional bearishness, which may accelerate the release of mandatory circulation quotas, and the bottom range of the CEA comprehensive price in May is 50 - 60 yuan/ton [4] - The exhaustion node of mandatory circulation quotas is postponed, and the upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter; if the selling node of surplus enterprises continues to move backward, the lower the price bottom, the more limited the rebound height [4] - It is recommended that enterprises with quota gaps wait and see temporarily and purchase when the price drops to a suitable level [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Carbon Market Supply and Demand - The remaining 40% of mandatory circulation quotas in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.4 - 0.5 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [3] Price Forecast - The new industries included in 2024 have no quota gap for compliance, and the gap in the national carbon market may be slightly adjusted downwards, but the impact on the supply - demand balance is limited; the expansion plan brings short - term emotional bearishness, which may accelerate the release of mandatory circulation quotas, and the bottom range of the CEA comprehensive price in May is 50 - 60 yuan/ton [4] - The exhaustion node of mandatory circulation quotas is postponed, and the upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter; if the selling node of surplus enterprises continues to move backward, the lower the price bottom, the more limited the rebound height [4] Investment Strategy - It is recommended that enterprises with quota gaps wait and see temporarily and purchase when the price drops to a suitable level [3] Market Quotes - For CEA, CEA23 is temporarily stable, CEA24 continues to rebound, and the rest decline to make up for losses; the volume of listed trading is 10.60 million tons, and the volume of bulk trading is 15.00 million tons [10] - For CCER, the volume of listed agreement trading is 4.00 million tons, and the average transaction price is 90.00 yuan/ton (-1.11%) [8][10] Price and Volume Details of Different Years of CEA | Year | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Change (%) | New - Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | Bulk Transaction Average Price (yuan/ton) | Total Transaction Volume (million tons) | Listed Agreement Transaction Volume (million tons) | Bulk Agreement Transaction Volume (million tons) | Total Transaction Amount (ten thousand yuan) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | CEA19 - 20 | 69.60 | -4.66% | | N/A | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 1329.41 | | CEA21 | 69.60 | -1.28% | 0.00 | N/A | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 15.00 | | CEA22 | 69.60 | -4.66% | 0.00 | N/A | 0.26 | 0.26 | 15.00 | 408.72 | | CEA23 | 69.70 | 0.04% | 0.10 | 69.50 | 19.12 | 4.12 | 15.00 | 16.78 | | CEA24 | 70.81 | 0.31% | 1.11 | N/A | 5.77 | 5.77 | 0.00 | 17.86 | [6][7] CCER Transaction Information - The average transaction price is 90.00 yuan/ton (-1.11%), the transaction amount is 360.00 ten thousand yuan, the transaction volume is 4.00 million tons, and the cumulative transaction volume is 174.99 million tons [8]

Report Title - National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 70, 2025) [1] Report Provider - Guotai Junan Futures [2] Release Date - May 8, 2025 [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - CEA trading volume continued to decline, and prices of CEA from different years showed divergent trends. CEA23 slightly declined, while CEA24 stopped falling and rebounded. The listed volume was 56,200 tons, and the bulk volume was 100,000 tons. CCER's listed agreement trading volume was 20,000 tons, with an average transaction price of 91.01 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.20%. It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap wait and see temporarily and purchase when the price drops to an appropriate level [3]. - The remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quotas in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand. About 40 - 50 million tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises. The new industries included in 2024 have no quota gap for compliance, and the quota gap in the national carbon market may be lowered, but the impact on the supply - demand balance is limited. The expansion plan brings short - term negative sentiment and may accelerate the release of mandatory circulation quotas. The bottom range of the CEA comprehensive price in May is 50 - 60 yuan/ton. The exhaustion node of mandatory circulation quotas is postponed, and the upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter. If the selling node of surplus enterprises continues to move backward, the lower the price bottom, the more limited the rebound height [3][4] Summary by Directory CEA Market - CEA19 - 20, CEA21, and CEA22 had a closing price of 73.00 yuan/ton, 70.50 yuan/ton, and 73.00 yuan/ton respectively, with a 0.00% change. CEA23 closed at 69.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47%, and CEA24 closed at 70.59 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.84%. The total trading volume of CEA23 was 15,000 tons, and that of CEA24 was 141,200 tons [6]. CCER Market - The average transaction price of CCER was 91.01 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.20%. The trading volume was 20,000 tons, and the cumulative trading volume was 1,709,900 tons. The transaction amount was 1.823 million yuan [8]

今日全国碳市场综合价格行情为：开盘价71.30元/吨，最高价71.40元/吨，最低价71.00元/吨，收盘价 71.35元/吨，收盘价较前一日上涨0.07%。 2025年1月1日至5月8日，全国碳市场碳排放配额成交量13,290,043吨，成交额1,081,336,796.47元。 今日挂牌协议交易成交量56,194吨，成交额3,952,983.00元；大宗协议交易成交量100,000吨，成交额 6,990,000.00元。 截至2025年5月8日，全国碳市场碳排放配额累计成交量643,558,707吨，累计成交额44,114,063,899.98 元。 今日全国碳排放配额总成交量156,194吨，总成交额10,942,983.00元。 ...

今日挂牌协议交易成交量110,500吨，成交额7,735,000.00元；大宗协议交易成交量200,000吨，成交额 13,990,000.00元。 今日全国碳排放配额总成交量310,500吨，总成交额21,725,000.00元。 今日全国碳市场综合价格行情为：开盘价71.30元/吨，最高价71.30元/吨，最低价71.30元/吨，收盘价 71.30元/吨，收盘价较前一日下跌0.07%。 2025年1月1日至5月7日，全国碳市场碳排放配额成交量13,133,849吨，成交额1,070,393,813.47元。 截至2025年5月7日，全国碳市场碳排放配额累计成交量643,402,513吨，累计成交额44,103,120,916.98 元。 ...

今日全国碳排放配额总成交量818,555吨，总成交额56,638,177.50元。 2025年1月1日至4月30日，全国碳市场碳排放配额成交量12,369,603吨，成交额1,016,904,593.47元。 截至2025年4月30日，全国碳市场碳排放配额累计成交量642,638,267吨，累计成交额44,049,631,696.98 元。 今日全国碳市场综合价格行情为：开盘价72.35元/吨，最高价72.35元/吨，最低价71.40元/吨，收盘价 71.46元/吨，收盘价较前一日下跌2.10%。 今日挂牌协议交易成交量106,250吨，成交额7,448,760.00元；大宗协议交易成交量712,305吨，成交额 49,189,417.50元。 ...

截至2025年4月29日，全国碳市场碳排放配额累计成交量641,819,712吨，累计成交额43,992,993,519.48 元。 今日全国碳市场综合价格行情为：开盘价73.03元/吨，最高价73.03元/吨，最低价72.93元/吨，收盘价 72.99元/吨，收盘价较前一日下跌0.25%。 今日挂牌协议交易成交量15,543吨，成交额1,131,134.00元；大宗协议交易成交量450,000吨，成交额 33,139,500.00元。 今日全国碳排放配额总成交量465,543吨，总成交额34,270,634.00元。 2025年1月1日至4月29日，全国碳市场碳排放配额成交量11,551,048吨，成交额960,266,415.97元。 ...

全国碳市场行情简报 (2025年第65期) 国泰君安期货 发布日期:2025-04-28 碳配额24即将上线,CEA跌跌不休 今日 3强制流通配额耗尽节点延后,上涨动能或出现在三季度末、四季度初;若盈余企业 卖出节点继续后移，价格底部越低,反弹高度越有限。 风险 1、企业非理性导致配额到期作废；2、企业不看好未来市场选择全部地售变现；3、企 业2023年度、2024年度未足额履约;4、未考虑跨行业回购配额规避结转。 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 | | 碳配额19-20 | 碳配额21 | 碳配额22 | 碳配额23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元/吨) | 73.00 | 73.00 | 73.00 | 73. 68 | | 涨跌幅(%) | -3.95% | -3.95% | -3.95% | -1.80% | | 新旧价差(元/吨) | | 0. 00 | 0. 00 | 0. 68 | | 大宗成交均价(元/吨) | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 71.62 | | 总成交量(万吨) | 0. 20 | 0. 20 | ...

核心 影响有限;扩固方案带来短期情绪利空,或加速强制流通配额释放,综合价格短期支 逻辑 撑位76元/吨附近。 3强制流通配额耗尽节点延后,上涨动能或出现在三季度末、四季度初;若盈余企业 卖出节点继续后移，价格底部越低,反弹高度越有限。 风险 1、企业非理性导致配额到期作废；2、企业不看好未来市场选择全部地售变现；3、企 业2023年度、2024年度未足额履约;4、未考虑跨行业回购配额规避结转。 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 | | 碳配额19-20 | 碳配额21 | 碳配额22 | 碳配额23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元/吨) | 76. 00 | 76. 00 | 76. 00 | 75.03 | | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.00% | 0. 00% | 0.00% | -1.35% | | 新旧价差(元/吨) | | 0.00 | 0. 00 | -0.97 | | 大宗成交均价(元/吨) | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 75. 33 | | 总成交量(万吨) | 0. 00 | 0. 00 | 0. 00 | 55. ...

Core Insights - The national carbon market's comprehensive price today opened at 76.50 CNY/ton, with a closing price of 76.02 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.14% from the previous day [1] Trading Volume and Revenue - The total trading volume for the day in the national carbon market was 232,778 tons, with a total transaction value of 17,695,428.00 CNY [1] - The agreement trading volume was 77,778 tons, generating a transaction value of 5,915,428.00 CNY, while the bulk agreement trading volume was 155,000 tons, with a transaction value of 11,780,000.00 CNY [1] Cumulative Data - From January 1 to April 24, 2025, the carbon emission allowance trading volume reached 10,108,005 tons, with a total transaction value of 853,844,486.97 CNY [1] - As of April 24, 2025, the cumulative trading volume in the national carbon market was 640,376,669 tons, with a cumulative transaction value of 43,886,571,590.48 CNY [1]