全国碳市场行情简报（2025年第196期） ( ■ 国泰君安期货 发布日期:2025-11-19 利好情绪发酵,盘中一度涨停 今日 行情 1、CEA: 配额全线大涨,成交量跌超约38%;挂牌114.6万吨,大宗90.9万吨 2、CCER:挂牌协议成交量2.00万吨,成交均价72.00元/吨（1.53%） 策略 今日信号强度:2 (0为空仓,土1为偏多/空,土2为多/空) (1随着履约压力逐步显现、强制流通配额基本释放完毕,上涨动能开始积聚, 核心 碳价或进入趋势性回升阶段。 逻辑 210月下旬起,受非市场因素犹动,发电集团开始联合挺价,碳价波动增大。 3钢铁、水泥、电解铝行业配额基础结转额增加至10万吨、利多碳价。 风险 CCER供应量剧增。 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 | | CEA19-20 | CEA21 | CEA22 | CEA23 | CEA24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元/吨) | 67. 65 | 67.06 | 66. 96 | 65. 01 | 67. 63 | | 涨跌幅(%) | 10. 00% | ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may support a reversal in carbon prices, with a possible reversal in Q3 due to expected trading. By the end of October, as compliance pressure mounts and the release of mandatory circulation allowances nears its end, upward momentum may accumulate, and carbon prices may enter a stage of trend - based recovery [7] - It is recommended that deficit enterprises make phased purchases at low prices before the end of October [5] Group 3: Summary by Sections Market Quotes - The main CEA target rebounded above 40 yuan. There were 44.2 tons in listed trading and 63.1 tons in bulk trading. The total single - day trading volume was less than 1.1 million tons. For CCER, the listed agreement trading volume was 1.30 tons, with an average trading price of 57.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.40% [4] - The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 60.31 yuan/ton, 59.00 yuan/ton, 60.00 yuan/ton, 42.18 yuan/ton, and 41.48 yuan/ton respectively. The price increases were 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 8.46%, and 7.80% respectively [9] - The trading volume of CCER was 1.30 tons, with an average trading price of 57.60 yuan/ton (down 6.40%), and the trading amount was 74.99 million yuan [11] Strategy - Deficit enterprises are advised to make phased purchases at low prices before the end of October [5] Core Logic - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may be a realistic support for the reversal of carbon prices. Expected trading may lead to a possible carbon price reversal in Q3. By the end of October, as compliance pressure emerges and the release of mandatory circulation allowances nears completion, carbon prices may trend upwards [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental industry [13] Core Insights - Since 2024, China has accelerated the establishment of a national carbon market regulatory framework, with significant progress in the CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) methodology since October 2023. As of September 2025, the cumulative transaction volume of CCER is approximately 2.43 billion yuan, with an average transaction price of 86.41 yuan per ton [2][6][8] Summary by Sections Carbon Emission Control System - The carbon emission control system is gradually improving, with a unified national carbon market being constructed. The market includes both the national carbon quota trading market (CEA) and the voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction trading market (CCER), which operate independently but are interconnected through a quota offset mechanism [6][19][21] CCER Methodology Expansion - The CCER methodology has been continuously expanded, with four batches of methodologies released since October 2023. The first batch includes forestry carbon sinks and offshore wind power, while subsequent batches cover various energy-saving and emission reduction projects. As of September 2025, 29 voluntary emission reduction projects have been registered, with an expected annual reduction of 10.438 million tons [7][26][27] CCER Market Performance - The average transaction price of CCER is currently higher than that of CEA, reflecting a temporary supply-demand imbalance due to strict project approvals and limited issuance. The report anticipates that as the issuance of CCER increases and market mechanisms mature, prices will gradually return to a reasonable relationship. The average transaction price of CCER from January to September 2025 is 86.41 yuan per ton, while CEA's average is 69.29 yuan per ton [8][34] Benefits of Agricultural and Forestry Biomass Projects - The report highlights the potential benefits of agricultural and forestry biomass projects under the CCER framework. For instance, assuming a CCER price of 80 yuan per ton, companies like Changqing Group and China Everbright Green Environmental Protection could see significant revenue contributions from CCER sales, amounting to 139 million yuan and 384 million HKD, respectively [9][44][45] Investment Logic for CCER - The investment logic for CCER emphasizes the importance of additionality in projects, focusing on profitability compensation rather than mere emission reduction. Key areas of interest include carbon monitoring equipment and consulting services, as well as the acceleration of related industries such as biomass power generation and hydrogen energy [10][49]

全国碳币场行情简报 (2025年第161期) 建议缺口企业在10月底前分批逢低采购 策略 国家君安期货 发布日期:2025-09-22 今日 CEA价格继续下跌,活跃度大幅下降 1、CEA:价格继续下跌；挂牌19.3万吨，大宗10.0万吨 行情 2、CCER:挂牌协议成交量2.93万吨,成交均价78.14元/吨（2.80%） (1)强制流通配额耗尽的节点或将成为碳价反转的现实支撑。预计到10月强制流通配额 才会耗尽。然而,预期交易可能会再次上演,这意味着Q3或许就会看到碳价反转的迹 界。 核心 逻辑 29月起，重点排放单位陆续根据核定配额发放情况制定交易计划,强制流通配额加速 释放,碳价或承压运行。 大宗协议成交量 0.00 0. 00 10. 00 0. 00 0. 00 单项竞价成交量 0. 00 0. 00 0. 00 0. 00 0. 00 总成交额(万元) 0.00 270. 33 0. 00 0. 00 1345. 66 图表3:CEA大宗成交均价(元/吨) 图表2:CEA收盘价(元/吨) -碳配额21 ·碳配额19-20 碳配额22 ·碳配额21 几/吨 ·碳配额22 工/吨。 ·碳配额19-2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The depletion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal, expected to occur around October, but anticipatory trading could bring signs of reversal in Q3 [6]. - Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of mandatory circulation quotas and low trading willingness. Starting from September, as compliance pressure mounts, prices may rise [6]. - It is recommended that deficit enterprises make phased purchases at low prices before the end of September [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Today's Market - CEA24 single - item auction was sold at the reserve price with a 95% unsold rate due to price - raising behavior yesterday [4]. - For CEA, the main targets declined to varying degrees, with 36.4 tons listed and 89.7 tons in bulk transactions [4]. - For CCER, the listed agreement trading volume was 0.24 tons, and the average transaction price was 80.97 yuan/ton, a 1.21% change [4]. Carbon Quota (CEA) Data | CEA Type | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Daily Change (%) | New - Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | Bulk Transaction Average Price (yuan/ton) | Total Transaction Volume (tons) | Listed Agreement Transaction Volume (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CEA19 - 20 | 69.00 | 0.00% | - | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | | CEA21 | 70.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | | CEA22 | 69.72 | - 0.83% | - 0.28 | N/A | 1.05 | 1.05 | | CEA23 | 69.11 | - 0.59% | - 0.61 | 66.48 | 62.33 | 15.19 | | CEA24 | 69.42 | - 0.52% | 0.31 | 69.34 | 63.28 | 20.20 | [8] CCER Data - The average transaction price of CCER was 80.97 yuan/ton, with a 1.21% change, a trading volume of 0.24 tons, and a turnover of 19.11 million yuan. The cumulative trading volume was 250.40 tons [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may support a carbon price reversal, with an expected depletion by mid - early October, but anticipatory trading could lead to signs of a reversal in Q3 [5] - Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of mandatory circulation allowances and low trading willingness; starting from September, as compliance pressure builds, prices may rise [5] - The report suggests that enterprises with a carbon allowance gap should make phased purchases at low prices before the end of August [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA) Market - CEA22 is stable, while the main target continues to decline. There are 160,000 tons for listing and 100,000 tons for bulk trading [3] - CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 have closing prices of 71.34 yuan/ton, 70.00 yuan/ton, 70.80 yuan/ton, 72.42 yuan/ton, and 72.47 yuan/ton respectively, with CEA23 and CEA24 having a decline of - 0.29% and - 0.48% [7] - The total trading volume of CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 are 100,000 tons, 56,900 tons, and 103,000 tons respectively [7] China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) Market - The listing agreement trading volume is 80,000 tons, and the average trading price is 80.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.53%. The trading amount is 6.5 million yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 2.4808 million tons [3][9]

Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that enterprises with a quota gap should make phased low - cost purchases before the end of August. The depletion of the mandatory circulation quota may support the carbon price reversal. With less than half of the 2025 mandatory circulation quota released, it's expected to be exhausted by mid - October. Anticipatory trading may lead to a carbon price reversal in Q3. Before August, the carbon price may fluctuate due to slow quota release and low trading willingness. From September, the price may rise as compliance pressure mounts, but price volatility may intensify in the second half of the year [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - CEA: The main targets showed mixed trends and were generally weak. The listed volume was 3.1 thousand tons, and the bulk volume was 0.0 thousand tons. The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 71.34 yuan/ton, 71.00 yuan/ton, 74.50 yuan/ton, 74.11 yuan/ton, and 74.50 yuan/ton respectively, with the CEA23's price dropping by 0.86% and CEA24 rising by 0.04%. The total trading volume of CEA23 was 2.11 thousand tons, and that of CEA24 was 1.00 thousand tons [3][6] - CCER: The listed agreement trading volume was 0.15 thousand tons, the average trading price was 83.05 yuan/ton (down 0.51%), the trading amount was 124,700 yuan, and the cumulative trading volume was 237,660 tons [3][8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent average daily trading volume is less than 600,000 tons, and the comprehensive price is approaching the expected bottom range [3] - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [3] - After the CEA price dropped to around 70 yuan/ton, both rigid and speculative market demands emerged, the market trading heat increased significantly, and the release of mandatory circulation quotas accelerated. The bottom price of CEA in May may be 65 - 68 yuan/ton [5] - Currently, the release ratio of mandatory circulation quotas is less than 20%, there is still potential selling pressure, the market price is oscillating at the bottom, and there is still a lack of upward driving force. If the selling time of surplus enterprises is postponed, the price bottom may be lower and the rebound height more limited. If the daily trading volume can significantly increase, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - CEA: CEA23 and CEA24 showed significant declines, while CEA22 had a slight rebound. The listed volume was 206,000 tons, and the bulk volume was 200,000 tons [3] - CCER: The listed agreement trading volume was 30,000 tons, and the average trading price was 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.03% [3] Strategy - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August. In 2025, the remaining 40% of mandatory circulation quotas can only meet part of the market demand, and about 40 - 50 million tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [3] Core Logic - After the CEA price dropped to around 70 yuan/ton, market demand increased, and the release of mandatory circulation quotas accelerated. The bottom price of CEA in May may be 65 - 68 yuan/ton [5] - The release ratio of mandatory circulation quotas is low, there is potential selling pressure, and the price is oscillating at the bottom. The selling time of surplus enterprises affects the price bottom and rebound height. If the daily trading volume increases, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [5] Data Tables - CEA price and trading volume data for different years are presented, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and trading amounts [7][8][9] - CCER trading information shows an average trading price of 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.03%, a trading volume of 30,000 tons, and a cumulative trading volume of 185,910 tons [9]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: National Carbon Market Weekly Brief (Issue 81, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release date: May 23, 2025 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The recent average daily trading volume is low, and the trend of bottom - grinding through fluctuations is difficult to change in the short term [5] - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [7] Group 4: Market Conditions CEA - CEA22 has a significant decline, while other quotas are weakly stable. The volume of listed transactions is 15.64 tons, and the volume of bulk transactions is 42.00 tons [6] - CEA19 - 20 has a closing price of 69.50 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.14%, CEA21 has a closing price of 68.50 yuan/ton with no change, CEA22 has a closing price of 67.80 yuan/ton with a decline of 3.14%, CEA23 has a closing price of 70.53 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.10%, and CEA24 has a closing price of 70.73 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.18% [11] - The total trading volume of CEA19 - 20 is 0.20 tons, CEA21 is 0.00 tons, CEA22 is 1.50 tons, CEA23 is 11.07 tons, and CEA24 is 44.87 tons [11] - The total turnover of CEA19 - 20 is 3176.98 million yuan, CEA21 is 101.70 million yuan, CEA22 is 13.97 million yuan, CEA23 is 897.26 million yuan, and CEA24 is 0.00 million yuan [12] CCER - The volume of listed agreement transactions is 3.50 tons, and the average transaction price is 90.00 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.82%. The turnover is 315.36 million yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 179.41 tons [6][13] Group 5: Strategy - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August. In 2025, the remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quota can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.4 - 0.5 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [7] Group 6: Core Logic - After the CEA price drops to around 70 yuan, both the rigid demand and speculative demand in the market appear, the market trading enthusiasm significantly increases, and the release of the mandatory circulation quota accelerates. The bottom of the CEA comprehensive price in May may be 65 - 68 yuan/ton [9] - Currently, the release ratio of the mandatory circulation quota is less than 20%, and there is still potential selling pressure. The market price is bottom - grinding through fluctuations and still lacks upward driving force. If the selling time of surplus enterprises is postponed, the price bottom may be lower and the rebound height may be more limited. If the daily trading volume can significantly increase, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [9]

Report Title - National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 70, 2025) [1] Report Provider - Guotai Junan Futures [2] Release Date - May 8, 2025 [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - CEA trading volume continued to decline, and prices of CEA from different years showed divergent trends. CEA23 slightly declined, while CEA24 stopped falling and rebounded. The listed volume was 56,200 tons, and the bulk volume was 100,000 tons. CCER's listed agreement trading volume was 20,000 tons, with an average transaction price of 91.01 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.20%. It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap wait and see temporarily and purchase when the price drops to an appropriate level [3]. - The remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quotas in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand. About 40 - 50 million tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises. The new industries included in 2024 have no quota gap for compliance, and the quota gap in the national carbon market may be lowered, but the impact on the supply - demand balance is limited. The expansion plan brings short - term negative sentiment and may accelerate the release of mandatory circulation quotas. The bottom range of the CEA comprehensive price in May is 50 - 60 yuan/ton. The exhaustion node of mandatory circulation quotas is postponed, and the upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter. If the selling node of surplus enterprises continues to move backward, the lower the price bottom, the more limited the rebound height [3][4] Summary by Directory CEA Market - CEA19 - 20, CEA21, and CEA22 had a closing price of 73.00 yuan/ton, 70.50 yuan/ton, and 73.00 yuan/ton respectively, with a 0.00% change. CEA23 closed at 69.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47%, and CEA24 closed at 70.59 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.84%. The total trading volume of CEA23 was 15,000 tons, and that of CEA24 was 141,200 tons [6]. CCER Market - The average transaction price of CCER was 91.01 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.20%. The trading volume was 20,000 tons, and the cumulative trading volume was 1,709,900 tons. The transaction amount was 1.823 million yuan [8]