Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may support a carbon price reversal, with an expected depletion by mid - early October, but anticipatory trading could lead to signs of a reversal in Q3 [5] - Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of mandatory circulation allowances and low trading willingness; starting from September, as compliance pressure builds, prices may rise [5] - The report suggests that enterprises with a carbon allowance gap should make phased purchases at low prices before the end of August [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA) Market - CEA22 is stable, while the main target continues to decline. There are 160,000 tons for listing and 100,000 tons for bulk trading [3] - CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 have closing prices of 71.34 yuan/ton, 70.00 yuan/ton, 70.80 yuan/ton, 72.42 yuan/ton, and 72.47 yuan/ton respectively, with CEA23 and CEA24 having a decline of - 0.29% and - 0.48% [7] - The total trading volume of CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 are 100,000 tons, 56,900 tons, and 103,000 tons respectively [7] China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) Market - The listing agreement trading volume is 80,000 tons, and the average trading price is 80.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.53%. The trading amount is 6.5 million yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 2.4808 million tons [3][9]

Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that enterprises with a quota gap should make phased low - cost purchases before the end of August. The depletion of the mandatory circulation quota may support the carbon price reversal. With less than half of the 2025 mandatory circulation quota released, it's expected to be exhausted by mid - October. Anticipatory trading may lead to a carbon price reversal in Q3. Before August, the carbon price may fluctuate due to slow quota release and low trading willingness. From September, the price may rise as compliance pressure mounts, but price volatility may intensify in the second half of the year [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - CEA: The main targets showed mixed trends and were generally weak. The listed volume was 3.1 thousand tons, and the bulk volume was 0.0 thousand tons. The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 71.34 yuan/ton, 71.00 yuan/ton, 74.50 yuan/ton, 74.11 yuan/ton, and 74.50 yuan/ton respectively, with the CEA23's price dropping by 0.86% and CEA24 rising by 0.04%. The total trading volume of CEA23 was 2.11 thousand tons, and that of CEA24 was 1.00 thousand tons [3][6] - CCER: The listed agreement trading volume was 0.15 thousand tons, the average trading price was 83.05 yuan/ton (down 0.51%), the trading amount was 124,700 yuan, and the cumulative trading volume was 237,660 tons [3][8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent average daily trading volume is less than 600,000 tons, and the comprehensive price is approaching the expected bottom range [3] - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [3] - After the CEA price dropped to around 70 yuan/ton, both rigid and speculative market demands emerged, the market trading heat increased significantly, and the release of mandatory circulation quotas accelerated. The bottom price of CEA in May may be 65 - 68 yuan/ton [5] - Currently, the release ratio of mandatory circulation quotas is less than 20%, there is still potential selling pressure, the market price is oscillating at the bottom, and there is still a lack of upward driving force. If the selling time of surplus enterprises is postponed, the price bottom may be lower and the rebound height more limited. If the daily trading volume can significantly increase, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - CEA: CEA23 and CEA24 showed significant declines, while CEA22 had a slight rebound. The listed volume was 206,000 tons, and the bulk volume was 200,000 tons [3] - CCER: The listed agreement trading volume was 30,000 tons, and the average trading price was 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.03% [3] Strategy - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August. In 2025, the remaining 40% of mandatory circulation quotas can only meet part of the market demand, and about 40 - 50 million tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [3] Core Logic - After the CEA price dropped to around 70 yuan/ton, market demand increased, and the release of mandatory circulation quotas accelerated. The bottom price of CEA in May may be 65 - 68 yuan/ton [5] - The release ratio of mandatory circulation quotas is low, there is potential selling pressure, and the price is oscillating at the bottom. The selling time of surplus enterprises affects the price bottom and rebound height. If the daily trading volume increases, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [5] Data Tables - CEA price and trading volume data for different years are presented, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and trading amounts [7][8][9] - CCER trading information shows an average trading price of 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.03%, a trading volume of 30,000 tons, and a cumulative trading volume of 185,910 tons [9]

全国碳市场行情简报 (2025年第70期) 国泰君安期货 发布日期:2025-05-08 成交量延续下滑,不同年份CEA价格走势分化 今日 1、CEA:CEA23小幅下跌,CEA24止跌反弹；挂牌5.62万吨，大宗10.00万吨 行情 2、CCER:挂牌协议成交量2.00万吨,成交均价91.01元/吨（-4.20%） 策略 建议缺口企业暂时观望,等待价格跌至合适位置再采购 3强制流通配额耗尽节点延后,上涨动能或出现在三季度末、四季度初;若盈余企业 卖出节点继续后移，价格底部越低,反弹高度越有限。 风险 1、企业非理性导致配额到期作废：2、企业不看好未来市场选择全部抛售变现；3、企 业2023年度、2024年度未足额履约;4、未考虑跨行业回购配额规避结转。 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 | | CEA19-20 | CEA21 | CEA22 | CEA23 | CEA24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元/吨) | 73.00 | 70. 50 | 73.00 | 69.67 | 70. 59 | | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.00% ...

全国碳市场行情简报（2025年第67期） 看 女期货 发布日期:2025-04-30 市场成交量超80万吨,CEA大跌 今日 行情 1、CEA: CEA21、23、24大跌;挂牌10.63万吨,大宗71.23万吨, 2、CCER:挂牌协议成交量0.00万吨,成交均价96.13元/吨(1.19%) 策略 建议缺口企业暂时观望,等待价格跌至合适位置再采购 (1)2025年剩余40%强制流通配额只能满足部分市场需求,约0.4°0.5亿吨市场需求或 由盈余企业自愿卖出来满足。 2新纳入行业2024年度履约不设配额缺口,全国碳市场缺口略有下调,但对供需平 核心 衡影响有限;扩围方案带来短期情绪利空,或加速强制流通配额释放,综合价格5月 逻辑 底部区间50 60元/吨。 3强制流通配额耗尽节点延后,上涨动能或出现在三季度末、四季度初:若盈余企 业卖出节点继续后移,价格底部越低,反弹高度越有限。 1、企业非理性导致配额到期作废;2、企业不看好未来市场选择全部地售变现;3、 风险 企业2023年度、2024年度未足额履约;4、未考虑跨行业回购配额规避结转。 | 图表 1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 | | | | ...

全国碳市场行情简报 (2025年第63期) 国泰君安期货 发布日期:2025-04-23 币场成交下滑,CEA综合价格止跌 今日 1、CEA:CEA23止跌,其余年份配额暂无成交;挂牌11.65万吨,大宗0.00万吨 行情 2、CCER:挂牌协议成交量0.10万吨,成交均价95.00元/吨（-3.06%） 策略 建议缺口企业暂时观望,等待价格跌至合适位置再采购 (1)2025年剩余40%强制流通配额只能满足部分市场需求，约0.4°0.5亿吨市场需求或由 盈余企业自愿卖出来满足。 核心 逻辑 2新纳入行业2024年度履约不设配额缺口,全国碳市场缺口喀有下调,但对供需平衡 影响有限;扩固方案带来短期情绪利空,或加速强制流通配额释放,综合价格短期支 撑位76元/吨附近。 3强制流通配额耗尽节点延后,上涨动能或出现在三季度末、四季度初;若盈余企业 卖出节点继续后移，价格底部越低,反弹高度越有限。 风险 1、企业非理性导致配额到期作废；2、企业不看好未来市场选择全部地售变现；3、企 业2023年度、2024年度未足额履约;4、未考虑跨行业回购配额规避结转。 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 | | 碳配额 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - None provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market is actively traded, with the comprehensive price of CEA dropping significantly and testing the lower support at 76 yuan/ton [3]. - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap wait and see temporarily and purchase when the price drops to an appropriate level [3]. - The remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quota in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 050-0.6 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [3]. - The newly included industries in 2024 have no quota gap for compliance, and the gap in the national carbon market may be lowered, but it has limited impact on the supply-demand balance; the expansion plan brings short-term negative sentiment and may accelerate the release of the mandatory circulation quota, with the short-term support for the comprehensive price around 76 yuan/ton [4]. - Attention should be paid to the trading activity around the pre-allocation deadline of the 2024 quota (April 20); the exhaustion point of the mandatory circulation quota is postponed, and the upward momentum may appear after Q2 of 2025 [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - For CEA, CEA19 - 20 has a nearly 9% supplementary decline, and CEA22 and 23 have a decline of over 1%. The listed volume is 246,000 tons, and the bulk volume is 300,000 tons [3]. - For CCER, the listed agreement trading volume is 300 tons, and the average trading price is 98 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.47% [3]. Carbon Quota (CEA) Information | Carbon Quota | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Change (%) | New - Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | Bulk Average Trading Price (yuan/ton) | Total Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | Listed Agreement Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | Bulk Agreement Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | Total Transaction Amount (10,000 yuan) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 19 - 20 | 76.00 | -8.98% | - | N/A | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 10.31 | | 21 | 77.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 22 | 77.00 | -1.10% | 0.00 | N/A | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 7.70 | | 23 | 77.39 | -1.71% | 0.39 | 83.33 | 54.60 | 24.60 | 30.00 | 4403.66 | [6][7] Voluntary Emission Reduction (CCER) Information - The average trading price is 98 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.47%. The transaction amount is 300 yuan, the trading volume is 300 tons, and the cumulative trading volume is 1.577 million tons [8]

全国碳币场行情简报 (2025年第58期) 国泰君安斯员 发布日期:2025-04-16 预分配临近,市场逐渐活跃,CEA价格弱稳 今日 1、CEA:CEA23弱稳运行,其余年份配额暂无成交;挂牌成交约10万吨,无大宗成交 行情 2、CCER: 挂牌协议成交量0.01万吨,成交均价93.8元/吨（-0.07%） 1、新行业配额方案超预期宽松:2、企业非理性导致配额到期作废;3、企业不看好未 来市场选择全部抛售变现;4、企业2023年度、2024年度未足额履约;5、未考虑新纳 风险 入行业配额结转。 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 | | 碳配额19-20 | 碳配额21 | 碳配额22 | 碳配额23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元/吨) | 83. 50 | 80. 44 | 88. 00 | 82. 06 | | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.77% | | 新旧价差(元/吨) | | -3.06 | 7.56 | -5.94 | | 大宗成交均价(元/吨) | #N/A | #N/A | #N/ ...