Economic Growth - The U.S. economy expanded at a 3.8% annualized rate in the second quarter, marking the fastest growth in nearly two years, driven by robust consumer spending and solid business investment [1] - The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) raised its growth expectations for the U.S. to 1.8% in 2025, up from 1.6% in June, but forecasts for 2026 are projected at 1.5%, indicating a notable drop from 2.8% in 2024 [2] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending, which constitutes over two-thirds of economic activity, rose by 2.5% in the second quarter, revised up from a previous estimate of 1.6% [3] - In the last month, consumer spending increased by 0.6%, following a 0.5% gain in July [3] Household Wealth - Household wealth reached a record $176.3 trillion in the second quarter, although lower-income families face challenges from rising import-driven prices [4] Investment Trends - U.S. equity funds experienced a net inflow of $12.06 billion in the week ending September 24, reversing two weeks of outflows, with large-cap equity funds attracting $16.94 billion, the largest weekly inflow since April 9 [5] - Large-cap ETFs are recommended as a balanced investment strategy to capture growth potential while maintaining a defensive stance amid economic uncertainty [6] ETF Recommendations - Suggested large-cap ETFs include Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) [7] - Growth ETFs such as Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG), iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF (IWF), iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW), SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF (SPYG), and iShares Core S&P U.S. Growth ETF (IUSG) are also recommended for investors seeking higher growth potential [9]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained its policy rate at 5.5%, aligning with economists' expectations [1] - Inflation has moderated significantly in the first quarter, but growth may decelerate in the second half of the financial year due to global trade uncertainties [2] - The RBI had an opportunity to cut interest rates to stimulate growth, especially after inflation data undershot the target band of 2% to 6% [2] Group 2: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The U.S. imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, raising total duties to as high as 50%, significantly affecting sectors like textiles, gems, jewelry, and marine products [3] - Exports to the U.S. account for approximately 2% of India's GDP, with labor-intensive sectors facing potential job losses due to deteriorating business conditions [3] Group 3: Government Response and Domestic Consumption - To mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, the Indian government reduced the goods and services tax (GST) on several items to boost domestic demand ahead of the festive season [4] - India's domestic consumption constitutes over 60% of GDP, making it less reliant on exports, and the GST cuts are expected to alleviate the effects of U.S. tariffs [5] - Goldman Sachs raised its real GDP growth forecast for India to 7.1% for calendar year 2025 and 6.7% for fiscal year 2026, following a better-than-expected GDP growth of 7.8% in the June quarter [5]

Market Performance - Wall Street experienced a downbeat performance last week, with the S&P 500 declining by 0.3%, the Dow edging lower by 0.2%, and the Nasdaq slipping by 0.7%, marking the first weekly loss in four weeks for both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 [1] Inflation Data - August's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index showed core PCE rising at an annual rate of 2.9%, while the all-items index recorded a 2.7% year-over-year increase and a 0.3% monthly gain, reinforcing expectations for two quarter-point interest rate cuts by year-end [2] Consumer Sentiment - The University of Michigan reported a consumer sentiment index of 55.1 for September, slightly below the Dow Jones consensus forecast of 55.4, indicating steady sentiment among households with larger stock holdings [3] Economic Growth - The U.S. economy grew at a robust 3.8% in Q2 of 2025, an upward revision from the previously reported 3.3% growth, driven by stronger consumer spending after a 0.6% decline in Q1 [5] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve enacted its first rate cut of 2025 in September, with an 87.7% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in the upcoming October meeting [6] Tariff Developments - President Trump announced new tariffs ranging from 30% to 100% on various imported goods, effective October 1, with exemptions for drugmakers building manufacturing plants in the U.S. [7] Commodity Performance - Platinum prices surged, with the GraniteShares Platinum Trust and abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF both up 12%, driven by supply-demand imbalances and declining mine output [9] - Palladium prices rose by 10.6% due to supply crunches and increased industrial demand, influenced by geopolitical tensions [11] - The Sprott Lithium Miners ETF increased by 10.3% following reports of potential U.S. government intervention in Lithium Americas' Thacker Pass mine [13] - The Sprott Silver Miners & Physical Silver ETF rose by 10.2%, supported by strong safe-haven demand amid ongoing trade tensions [14]

If lawmakers can't come to an agreement on funding the government by end of day tomorrow, we're going to be headed into the first full government shutdown since 2013. Now, usually by this point, agency's plans for the shutdown would have been made public. Most of them have not put out those plans yet, but based on what we know previously, here's what we expect.First of all, no jobs data on Friday if the shutdown goes until then. And if the shutdown goes even longer, that could impact the collection of other ...

Government Shutdown Impact - A full government shutdown is anticipated if lawmakers fail to reach a funding agreement by the end of tomorrow [1] - The shutdown could delay loans to small businesses and farmers, and cause longer lines at airports [2] - Millions of federal workers and contractors may face no pay [2] Economic Impact - Moody's estimates that each week of the shutdown will reduce the quarter's GDP growth by approximately 0.1% [3] - The US travel association estimates the travel industry could lose $1 billion each week of a shutdown [3] - The White House is considering massive federal government layoffs, potentially impacting hundreds of thousands of employees [4]

[Music] Good morning from Yahoo Finance's New York City headquarters studios. I'm Yao Finance executive editor Brian Sazi. You are watching Norwegian Cruise Line sailing into the New York Stock Exchange to ring the opening bell.Arc Best getting things underway over at the NASDAQ. Now, the rosecolored glasses remain on for investors to start the week, but maybe they shouldn't be when taking a look at the potential minefields out there over the next 5 days of trading. Government shutdown could happen on Octob ...

Economic Indicators - The Atlanta Fed tracker indicates a GDP growth rate of approximately 3.9% for Q3, following a 3.8% growth in Q2, suggesting a strong economic performance [2] - Weekly jobless claims decreased to 218,000, with a four-week moving average of about 230,000, indicating a healthy labor market [2][16] - Durable goods orders rose by 5.4% year-over-year, driven by Boeing, while new home sales increased by 20% month-over-month and 15% year-over-year, reflecting robust consumer activity [3] Market Outlook - The earnings outlook for the next quarter is positive, with expectations of broad-based growth across various sectors, including housing and financials [4][6] - Financials are expected to perform well, with Morgan Stanley raising targets for large-cap banks due to favorable numbers [7] - The industrial sector and data center investments are anticipated to continue thriving, supported by strong visibility [8] Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to diversify beyond technology stocks, with a focus on sectors like housing and autos, which may benefit from lower interest rates [6][7] - Capital One is highlighted as a favorable investment due to its recent acquisition of Discover Financial, which enhances its scalable payments network [9] - Cybersecurity is identified as a growing sector, with potential for consolidation among the 4,000 companies in the field, driven by increasing demand for AI-related security solutions [11][12] Consumer Behavior - The consumer remains resilient, supported by job stability and wage growth of about 5%, despite inflationary pressures [18] - A significant amount of capital, approximately $8 trillion, is currently in money markets, which may shift into equities as interest rates decline [14][15] Risks and Concerns - The labor market is closely monitored, with a warning threshold set at 250,000 to 260,000 weekly jobless claims, as a significant increase could signal economic trouble [16][17] - Potential government shutdowns are not seen as a major concern, with expectations that any issues will be resolved quickly [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the positive outlook for the stock market based on recent economic data, particularly focusing on inflation and GDP growth estimates, while also highlighting 12 oversold growth stocks recommended by analysts for potential investment opportunities [2][4][5]. Economic Indicators - The latest PCE report shows year-over-year inflation at 2.9%, aligning with expectations and indicating tame inflation based on month-over-month data [2][3]. - Strong economic indicators, such as a lower trade deficit and increased durable goods orders, have led to raised GDP growth estimates for the third quarter, suggesting decent growth in the mid to high single-digit range [4]. Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve should focus on underlying inflation driven by real demand rather than inflation influenced by tariffs, which do not reflect strong demand for goods [3]. Stock Recommendations - A list of 12 oversold growth stocks is compiled, which have declined over 30% year-to-date but are expected to have more than 30% upside according to analysts [7]. - The methodology for selecting these stocks includes using the Finviz Stock Screener and cross-referencing data from CNN and hedge fund databases [7][8]. Individual Stock Highlights - **EPAM Systems, Inc. (NYSE:EPAM)**: Year-to-date performance of -34.55% with an analyst upside potential of 41.68%. The company focuses on AI-driven digital experiences and has recently rebranded its digital agency [9][10][11][12]. - **SPS Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ:SPSC)**: Year-to-date performance of -42.59% with an analyst upside potential of 42.93%. The company is a leader in retail supply chain solutions and is expected to improve revenue recovery through enhanced sales targeting and relationship management [13][14][15][16].

Core Insights - The U.S. economy expanded at a surprising 3.8% from April to June, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 3.3% [3][5] - Consumer spending rose at a 2.5% pace, up from 0.6% in the first quarter, indicating stronger consumer resilience amid trade uncertainties [5][6] - A notable decline in imports at a 29.3% pace contributed over 5 percentage points to the second-quarter growth, reversing the trend from the first quarter [4][5] Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP rebounded from a 0.6% drop in the first quarter, which was the first decline in three years, primarily due to increased imports [3][4] - The underlying strength of the economy, measured by a specific GDP category, grew by 2.9% from April to June, up from 1.9% in the first quarter [6][7] - Private investment fell, including a 5.1% drop in residential investment, and federal government spending also decreased at a 5.3% annual pace [7][12] Labor Market - Job creation has slowed significantly, with an average of 53,000 new jobs added per month since March, down from an average of 147,000 previously reported [12][13] - The Labor Department is expected to report a modest addition of 43,000 jobs in September, with unemployment likely remaining at 4.3% [14][15] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time since December, with expectations of two more cuts this year, although strong GDP growth may influence their decision [15][16] - The Fed will closely monitor the upcoming personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for inflation trends [15]

Market Overview - Stocks experienced further downside on Thursday, continuing a pullback after reaching record closing highs earlier in the week. The Nasdaq fell by 113.16 points (0.5%) to 22,384.70, the S&P 500 declined by 33.25 points (0.5%) to 6,604.72, and the Dow dropped by 173.96 points (0.4%) to 45,947.32 [1] Economic Indicators - The Labor Department reported a decrease in initial jobless claims, falling to 218,000, down by 14,000 from the previous week's revised level of 232,000, contrary to economists' expectations of an increase to 235,000 [3] - Jobless claims have now pulled back from a nearly four-year high, reaching the lowest level since July 19th when they hit 217,000. Additionally, there was an unexpected surge in durable goods orders for August and stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter [4] Sector Performance - Airline stocks saw a significant decline, with the NYSE Arca Airline Index dropping by 2.9% to its lowest closing level in over a month. Pharmaceutical stocks also faced weakness, as indicated by a 2.0% slump in the NYSE Arca Pharmaceutical Index, which ended at a one-month closing low [6] - Biotechnology, healthcare, and computer hardware stocks experienced considerable weakness, while gold stocks performed well amid an increase in gold prices [7] Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve's September dot plot suggested potential rate cuts in the upcoming meetings in late October and December, although the likelihood of consecutive cuts remains uncertain [5] - The bond market showed continued weakness following positive U.S. economic data, with the yield on the benchmark ten-year note rising by 2.5 basis points to 4.172% [9]