First Insights Global Markets Research Economics - Asia ex-Japan India: Are rate cuts over? The December MPC meeting minutes show that ultra-low inflation was the trigger for the rate cut, while advocating data dependence ahead. Downside surprise on inflation led to the December cut In the December meeting, the RBI materially cut its FY26 (year ending March) inflation forecast to 2.0% from 2.6%, with the one-year ahead forecast lowered by around 50bp to 4.0% (at the RBI's target). With concurrent inflation ...

Summary of Key Points from J.P. Morgan's Global Data Watch: Asia Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Export Market - **Context**: Analysis of China's export diversification post-US tariffs Core Insights 1. **Export Growth**: Despite US tariffs averaging ~32%, China's goods exports grew by 5% in 2025, consistent with the previous year's growth [1][11] 2. **Redirection of Exports**: China's direct export share to the US decreased by one-third in 2025, from 15% to 10%, leading to a redirection of exports to other markets [1][11] 3. **Broader Diversification**: The decline in US export share was offset by increases in market share across Africa, Asia, and Europe, indicating a broader diversification than previously assumed [1][11] 4. **Impact on Domestic Manufacturing**: Increased Chinese exports are creating pressures on local manufacturing sectors in Asia, evidenced by rising trade barriers on Chinese imports [1][11] 5. **ASEAN Economies**: ASEAN countries, due to strong economic ties with China, are unlikely to push back against increased Chinese imports despite the pressures on their manufacturing bases [1][11] Additional Important Points 1. **Economic Ties**: The strong economic connections between ASEAN economies and China as a source of foreign direct investment (FDI) and as an export market are highlighted [1][11] 2. **Trade Barriers**: The increase in trade barriers on Chinese imports suggests a growing concern among Asian countries regarding the impact of Chinese exports on their local industries [1][11] 3. **Long-term Trends**: The increase in exports to Asia reflects a secular rise over the last decade, with shipments to Asia now making up almost a third of China's export basket [1][11] Economic Forecasts 1. **China's GDP Forecast**: The 4Q GDP forecast for China is maintained at 3.0% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate (saar) or 4.2% year-on-year (yoy) for 2025, with net exports contributing 1.4 percentage points [11][12] 2. **Fiscal Spending**: Year-to-date fiscal deposits are elevated at 2.04 trillion yuan, indicating weak fiscal spending, which may lead to higher unused funds carrying over into the next year [12][11] This summary encapsulates the key insights and implications regarding China's export dynamics and its impact on regional economies, particularly in the context of ongoing trade tensions and economic forecasts.

Economic Overview - The jobless claims numbers indicate a slight decrease in initial claims year-over-year, down about 1 to 2 percentage points, while continuing claims have increased by approximately 1.5%, which are not concerning figures [1] - The unemployment rate may be overstated, with a gradual rise being observed, leading to discussions on whether the slowdown in the labor market is demand-driven or supply-driven [1] GDP and Labor Market Dynamics - GDP growth is showing a decent trend, particularly in capital expenditure investment, which is being driven by AI and other factors [1] - The labor market is characterized by low hiring and low firing rates, suggesting uncertainty in economic policy is affecting employer decisions [1] Future Projections - An acceleration in the job market is anticipated if economic policy becomes more certain, potentially leading to an increase in GDP growth due to significant tax refunds estimated at 50 to 60 billion, acting as a stimulus [1] - The first half of next year is projected to see an annualized growth rate of 2.8%, while the second half remains uncertain [1] Labor Market Tightening - There are signs of tightening in the labor market, particularly in sectors like construction, where employment is down but wage growth is beginning to inflect [1] - The NFIB survey indicates an increase in the percentage of respondents citing quality of labor as a significant issue, which had been declining for two years [1] Federal Reserve Policy Considerations - The Federal Reserve is currently divided between those advocating for further rate cuts to address downside risks and those suggesting a wait-and-see approach due to ongoing inflation concerns [1] - The interaction of various economic policies, including immigration, adds complexity to the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [1]

Economic Growth - Spain is projected to have a GDP growth of 2.9% in 2025, which will moderate to 2.3% in 2026, indicating a strong economic performance compared to other European nations [1]. Investment Opportunities - The strong economic growth in Spain has led to significant returns for Spain-focused ETFs, suggesting a favorable investment environment for these financial instruments [1].

The US crypto and AI czar says the Golden Age is here and you're still bearishDavid Sacks (@DavidSacks):The Golden Age is here: US GDP Growth surges to 4.3% in Q3, shattering expectations of 3.3%. Meanwhile, CPI is down to 2.7%, beating expectations of 3.1%. And with interest rates and taxes coming down, the table is set for an even better 2026. Thank you President Trump! 🚀🚀🚀 ...

🇺🇸 UPDATE: U.S. GDP grew 4.3% in Q3 2025, beating the previous quarter’s 3.8% as consumer spending, exports and government outlays lifted economic activity despite weaker investment. https://t.co/PqO5lgU2DW ...

Market Overview - Wall Street experienced modest gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.4% near 6,900, close to last October's all-time high of 6,920 [1] - The Nasdaq 100 also increased by 0.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.3%. However, small caps lagged, with the Russell 2000 down about 0.6% [1] Economic Data - U.S. GDP expanded at a 4.3% annualized pace in Q3, surpassing estimates of 3.3%, marking the fastest growth rate in two years [2] Federal Reserve Expectations - The strong economic data led traders to reduce expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing, with the probability of a 25-basis-point cut in late January now at approximately 15%, down from 20% [3] - Expectations have narrowed to two cuts in 2026, with June and September identified as the most likely months for these cuts [3] Stock Performance - Novo Nordisk A/S shares surged nearly 9% after U.S. regulators approved Wegovy in pill form, the first oral GLP-1 treatment for weight management [4] - In the Russell 1000, top gainers included Sarepta Therapeutics, Freeport-McMoRan, and Marvell Technology, each showing gains of over 3% [7] - The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF rose 0.31% to $631.69, while the iShares Russell 2000 ETF fell 0.49% to $252.34 [8] Commodity Market - Precious metals continued their historic rally, with silver rising over 2% to break above $70 an ounce, achieving year-to-date gains of approximately 140% [4] - Gold advanced 0.7% to $4,475 an ounce, setting a new record high, while platinum surged 5.5%, marking its best year ever with a nearly 150% increase [5] - Palladium increased by 5.6%, reaching levels last seen in October 2022, now up 105% year-to-date [5]

Core Viewpoint - There is skepticism regarding the reliability of the third-quarter data, suggesting potential concerns about its accuracy and implications for future analysis [1] Group 1 - The third-quarter data may not be fully trustworthy, indicating a need for caution in interpreting the results [1]

🗣️ According to social media today, top trending stories today are being led by:🥇🥈 Silver Gold New Highs: Silver and gold have reached new all-time highs, with silver surpassing $70 and gold nearing $4,500. Copper also hit a record above $12,000 per ton, driven by strong demand from renewable energy and EV sectors. Bitcoin lags behind, down 30% from its peak, while institutional interest in crypto remains mixed amid regulatory developments. Market participants are shifting focus to precious metals and energ ...

Economic Growth - US GDP grew by 43% in Q3 [1] - The actual growth of 43% surpassed expectations of 32% [1]