Core Viewpoint - Snap Inc. is experiencing significant stock decline amid broader market weakness and underperformance compared to its peers in the Communication Services sector [1] Market Context and Sector Performance - The Nasdaq index fell by 1.80%, while the Communication Services sector gained 1.52%, indicating Snap's substantial underperformance despite positive sector trends [1] Specs Subsidiary Formation - Snap has established Specs Inc. as a wholly-owned subsidiary to focus on the upcoming launch of AI-powered smartglasses [2][3] - The new subsidiary aims to enhance operational focus, facilitate new partnerships, and allow for minority investments, with nearly 100 global positions being recruited [3] Recent Legal Settlement - Snap settled a significant social media addiction lawsuit just before a major trial, removing the risk of a potentially precedent-setting verdict [4] Technical Analysis - Snap's stock is currently trading 9.3% below its 20-day simple moving average and 8.9% below its 100-day simple moving average, indicating a bearish trend [5] - Over the past year, Snap's stock has decreased by 38.14%, nearing its 52-week lows [5] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 45.47, indicating neutral territory, while the MACD is below its signal line, suggesting bearish pressure [6] - Snap shares were down 5.54% at $7.25 at the time of publication [6]

Core Viewpoint - Hycroft Mining (HYMC) has experienced significant stock price appreciation, driven by its strong technical indicators and the operation of one of the largest gold and silver deposits in the world [2][5][6]. Company Overview - Hycroft Mining is valued at $4.55 billion and operates the Hycroft mine in northern Nevada, which has a 34-year mine life and features one of the largest gold and silver deposits globally [2]. - The stock has surged 2,369% over the past year, recently reaching a 3-year high of $58.73 [5][6]. Technical Indicators - The stock maintains a 100% "Buy" technical opinion from Barchart, with a Weighted Alpha of +1,554.89 [5][6]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 77.44, indicating strong momentum [7]. - The stock has made 13 new highs and is up 112.32% over the past month [6]. Market Sentiment - Despite the strong technical momentum, Morningstar considers HYMC to be 67% overvalued, while CFRA rates it a "Hold" [5]. - There are no revenue and earnings projections available as Wall Street is not actively following this stock [7].

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Group 1 - Jim Wyckoff has over 25 years of experience in stock, financial, and commodity markets, including roles as a financial journalist and reporter on commodity futures trading floors in Chicago and New York [1] - He has covered every futures market traded in the U.S. at various times during his career [1] - Jim is the owner of "Jim Wyckoff on the Markets," which provides analytical, educational, and trading advisory services [2] Group 2 - He has worked as a technical analyst for Dow Jones Newswires and as a senior market analyst with TraderPlanet.com [2] - Jim is a consultant for the respected "Pro Farmer" agricultural advisory service and was the head equities analyst at CapitalistEdge.com [2] - He holds a degree in journalism and economics from Iowa State University [2]

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach to risk and potential returns [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] Stock Selection Criteria - The investor screens thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, looking for those that have undergone recent sell-offs, particularly when insiders are buying shares at lower prices [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchase shares post-sell-off, adding a layer of due diligence to the investment process [1] Technical Analysis - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts, employing multicolor lines for clarity [1] - Trend lines are drawn in multicolor patterns, indicating a systematic approach to technical analysis [1]

Stock Performance - Rheinmetall's share price has lost momentum, trading at €1,830, down from an all-time high of €2,000, indicating a potential bearish trend with a triple-top pattern formed [1][2] - The stock is expected to retreat to a neckline at €1,416, representing a 22% decline from the current level, with further downside potential towards €1,200 [3] Technical Analysis - The stock has formed a triple-top pattern at €2,000, which is a bearish reversal signal, suggesting that bullish sentiment is waning [2] - There is a possibility of an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern forming, which could lead to upside if the stock surpasses the all-time high of €2,005, potentially reaching a resistance level of €2,500 [4] Business Growth - Rheinmetall is experiencing significant growth, with a revenue backlog projected to reach €80 billion by year-end, up from €64 billion [9] - The company is collaborating with OHB to develop a military-grade satellite communications network to compete with Starlink, leveraging a €35 billion budget for military space technology from Berlin [6][7] Industry Context - The European Union has established a €150 billion defense fund, allowing member countries to invest in European-made defense equipment, with projections of up to €14 trillion in defense spending over the next decade [8] - Rheinmetall's sales increased by 20% in the first nine months to €7.5 billion, primarily driven by its defense sector, with operating results and cash flow also showing significant growth [10] Valuation Concerns - Despite the growth, Rheinmetall's stock is considered overvalued, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio between 95 and 100, significantly higher than competitors like BAE Systems, RTX, and Lockheed Martin [10]

Market Overview - Most markets are trading near all-time highs, but signs of exhaustion are emerging, indicating a potential meaningful correction in the coming weeks [1] - Recent price action resembles past topping patterns, characterized by strong rallies followed by sharp pullbacks and marginal new highs before momentum breaks down [1] Technology Sector - There is a material fade in upside strength, increasing the risk of a sudden decline, particularly among large-cap technology stocks [2] - The "Magnificent 7," which have significantly contributed to gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, are now exhibiting sideways movement with bearish characteristics [2] - This loss of momentum in major tech stocks undermines broader indices, especially the Nasdaq, signaling waning investor enthusiasm for previously dominant themes [2] Precious Metals - The rally in precious metals appears increasingly stretched, raising the risk of a blow-off peak and a major top forming in the coming weeks or months [3] - A significant correction in equities and a blow-off peak in metals are anticipated within the next few weeks or potentially a couple of months [3] Speculative Assets - Speculative assets, including Bitcoin, have lost momentum, with a trend emerging in mega-cap technology stocks as well [4] - Investors are rotating capital away from growth equities toward stronger trends, particularly in precious metals [4] Technical Analysis - Limited upside for U.S. equities is noted, with the S&P 500 offering roughly 4.5% upside to resistance near 7,225 [5] - The Nasdaq may also see slight increases, but any S&P 500 outperformance driven by weak participation from the Magnificent 7 would indicate a breakdown in market leadership [5] Market Correction Potential - Equities could retreat 1% to 2% before finding support, with longer-term trends remaining bullish [6] - Conditions often precede larger late-cycle corrections, and a decisive rollover in dominant technology stocks could intensify selling pressure, triggering a broad market correction [6]

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft shares are experiencing an increase ahead of the upcoming earnings report, with expectations for adjusted EPS of $3.88 and revenue of $80.23 billion [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Microsoft shares are up approximately 4% as the week concludes, although they are underperforming compared to the S&P 500 [2] - The tech sector is outperforming with a growth of 19.8%, while the S&P 500 has seen a rise of around 13% [3] - Microsoft ranks fifth among the "Mag 7" tech companies, only outperforming Meta and Amazon [4] Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - UBS has reduced its price target for Microsoft shares from $650 to $600 but maintains a buy rating [1] - Canaccord Genuity also lowered its price target from $639 to $590 while keeping a buy rating [5] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Microsoft has faced a challenging quarter, with a notable decline after reaching highs near $555 [6] - Current support levels are identified between 448 and 455, with a potential bullish outlook indicated by a falling wedge pattern [7][8] - The RSI is nearing a point that could invalidate a downward trend, suggesting a more bullish sentiment if it crosses above the 50 midline [9] Group 4: Options Activity - There is significant options trading activity, with about 921,000 options traded on the day, indicating high interest [11] - Notable trades include the sale of 8,000 February 6th 480 strike calls for approximately $6.8 million and 2,350 February 13th 490 puts for about $7.4 million [12]

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, particularly when insiders are buying shares at lower prices [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach to risk and potential returns [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] Stock Selection Criteria - The investor screens thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, looking for those that have undergone recent sell-offs [1] - A professional background check is conducted on each insider who purchased shares after the sell-off, adding a layer of due diligence [1] Technical Analysis - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] - The use of multicolor lines and trend lines in technical analysis indicates a sophisticated approach to charting and market trends [1]

Core Insights - Covered calls are most effective when momentum has already become stretched, allowing for better trade candidates without relying on direction or yield chasing [2][3] Group 1: Strategy Overview - Covered calls are not solely about collecting premiums; they focus on targeting stocks where upside momentum is likely to slow rather than accelerate [3] - The strategy begins with assessing the stock's momentum context rather than yields, answering the question of whether the stock has already made its move [3] Group 2: Technical Filters - The first technical filter used is the RSI Rank, which measures recent price momentum on a scale of 0 to 100, indicating overbought conditions above 70 and oversold conditions below 30 [4] - Elevated implied volatility (IV) often leads to inflated call option premiums, creating favorable conditions for covered call sellers [5] - The second filter suggested is the Bollinger Band Rank (BBR), which provides a volatility-based alternative for screening stocks [6]