i'm sharing the full message blurred in the quoted tweet since many keep askingit was posted earlier in a group chat in response to a comment about 'top blasting' USELESS and whether it has '$WIF-like potential'------i think for something that has run super hard (i.e. from $4m to $150m in ~2 weeks) there will be a cool down at some point before an eventual, more explosive leg upi mean for memecoins, especially one that has rallied with many being sidelined, it's generally bullish to shake off a bit of unbel ...

Core Insights - Rivian delivered 8,640 vehicles in Q1 2025, a decrease from 13,588 units in the same period last year, primarily due to high EDV deliveries in Q4 2024 [1][9] - The company produced 14,611 vehicles in Q1 2025, an increase from 13,980 vehicles in the same period last year, to compensate for an upcoming factory shutdown for R2 production [2][9] - Rivian revised its 2025 delivery guidance downward to 40,000-46,000 vehicles from an earlier forecast of 46,000-51,000 due to demand and policy uncertainties [4][9] Production and Deliveries - Rivian's production in Q1 2025 was higher than deliveries, with plans to sell excess inventory in upcoming quarters [2][9] - The average selling price of Rivian's vehicles was $88,500 in Q1 2025, which limits the addressable market in the current economic climate [4] Competitive Landscape - In Q1 2025, Tesla delivered 336,681 vehicles, a decline from 386,810 units in the previous year due to production pauses [5] - Lucid delivered 3,109 vehicles in Q1 2025, a 58.1% increase from the same period in 2024, and introduced the Lucid Gravity SUV [6] Valuation and Estimates - Rivian's shares have gained 3.8% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Automotive-Domestic industry, which declined by 13.8% [7] - Rivian is trading at a forward sales multiple of 2.42, lower than the industry's 2.78, indicating it may be undervalued [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rivian's EPS for 2025 has increased by 42 cents in the past 60 days [13]

Core Viewpoint - Carvana has experienced a significant turnaround, achieving record highs in key metrics after a challenging period in 2022, with a notable increase in stock price and operational efficiency [1][5][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - Carvana's first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of $4.2 billion, a 38% increase year-over-year, and retail units sold reached 133,898, a 46% increase, both setting quarterly records [8]. - The company more than doubled its net income and adjusted EBITDA to $373 million and $488 million, respectively, while selling 14% more vehicles with 30% less inventory and 45% less advertising spend compared to previous highs [9]. - Carvana aims to sell 3 million vehicles annually with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 13.5% within five to ten years, requiring a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% to 40% [10][11]. Group 2: Market Position and Growth Potential - Carvana estimates it currently holds only 1% of the $1.2 trillion U.S. used-car market, indicating substantial growth potential [12]. - The company has a presence in over 300 markets, with 81% of the U.S. population within its delivery range, positioning it well for future expansion [12]. - Plans for a new auction and reconditioning "megasite" in Phoenix are expected to create approximately 200 jobs, indicating a ramp-up in operational capacity [13]. Group 3: Financial Health and Valuation - As of Q1 2025, Carvana had $5.3 billion in long-term debt, which remains a concern for its financial stability [14]. - The company trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 112, significantly higher than peers like CarMax, which has a P/E of 21, raising questions about its valuation [15]. - Analysts project a 206% increase in earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, reflecting high expectations that may not be sustainable [17].

Investment Ratings - CICC-H: Buy [1] - FUTU: Neutral [1] - Hundsun: Buy [1] - East Money: Sell [2] Core Insights - Broker and fintech stocks have shown strong performance since May, with average returns of +27% for brokers and +9% for fintech, compared to +8% and +3% for the H/A share index [1] - Positive changes in Average Daily Trading Volume (ADTV) and turnover rates, along with growth in the Hong Kong market, are expected to drive earnings improvement [1][4] - Earnings forecasts for CICC, Hundsun, FUTU, GFS, and CITICS have been revised upwards by an average of 7% for 2025 [1][31] Summary by Sections Stock Selection Preferences - Preference for brokers with greater exposure to the Hong Kong market, such as CICC-H, while maintaining a Neutral rating on FUTU due to limited excess earnings growth [2] - For fintech, Hundsun is preferred over East Money due to fundamental factors, including recovery in non-core revenue supported by investments [2][26] Market Trends and Revisions - ADTV and turnover rates have recovered since June, primarily due to the easing of tariff shocks [4][12] - Continued increase in ETF market share is expected to impact East Money's profitability negatively [26] Earnings Forecasts - CICC's net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 13%, reflecting anticipated growth in Hong Kong investment banking revenue [17][22] - FUTU's earnings forecast has been slightly raised by 1% for 2025, driven by reduced customer acquisition costs [21][22] - Hundsun's net profit forecast for 2025 has been increased by 13% due to higher investment income [31] Valuation and Price Targets - CICC-H has a target price of HK$ 17.58 based on a 10x 2026E P/E [36] - FUTU's target price is set at US$ 111.79 based on an 18x 2026E P/E [36] - Hundsun's target price is Rmb 32.04, reflecting its market presence and sustainable customer relationships [46]

Back. It's a question almost every investor is thinking about given the uncertainty in the markets. Are stocks overvalued at current levels or not.Well, who better than the so-called Dean evaluation to weigh in. Oswerin of NYU Stern School of Business joins us now. It's good to see you.What What would your answer be. Well, if you thought stocks were fairly valued at the start of the year, you got to think they're fairly valued still because you come through a trial by fire. And it's amazing to me that stock ...

Core Insights - Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. (KNSL) shares have increased by 17.4% over the past year, slightly underperforming the Finance sector's growth of 18.2% and the industry growth of 17.5%, but outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite return of 9.5% [1] - The company has a market capitalization of $10.74 billion, with an average trading volume of 0.2 million shares over the last three months [4] Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinsale Capital's 2025 earnings per share indicates a year-over-year increase of 10%, with revenues projected at $1.75 billion, reflecting a 10.2% improvement [5] - Earnings have grown by 44.3% over the past five years, surpassing the industry average of 20.8%, with a long-term earnings growth rate expected at 15%, compared to the industry average of 6.8% [6] Earnings Performance - Kinsale Capital has consistently surpassed earnings estimates in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 11.07% [7] Financial Metrics - The return on equity (ROE) for Kinsale Capital stands at 26.37%, significantly higher than the industry average of 7.8%, indicating efficient use of shareholders' funds [10] - The return on invested capital (ROIC) is reported at 22.7%, compared to the industry's 5.9%, reflecting effective capital utilization [11] Analyst Sentiment - Mixed analyst sentiment is observed, with six out of eight analysts raising estimates for 2025, while six out of seven have lowered estimates for 2026 over the past 60 days [12] Valuation - Kinsale Capital shares are currently trading at a price-to-book value of 6.79X, which is higher than the industry average of 1.55X, indicating a premium valuation [13] Price Target - The average price target for Kinsale Capital, based on short-term estimates from eight analysts, is $474.63 per share, suggesting a potential upside of 2.9% from the last closing price [14] Market Positioning - Kinsale Capital is well-positioned in the excess and surplus (E&S) market, benefiting from high retention rates and improved underwriting results compared to the broader P&C industry [16] - The company targets small to medium-sized accounts, which allows for better pricing and reduced competition, with management estimating low double-digit rate increases across its business [17] Operational Efficiency - Kinsale Capital's proprietary technology platform enhances operational efficiency and expense ratios, contributing to improved margins and lower loss ratios [18] - The company has maintained a free cash flow conversion rate exceeding 85% in recent quarters, reflecting stable earnings [19] Dividend and Share Repurchase - Kinsale Capital has a strong dividend history, with a seven-year CAGR of 12.1% from 2017 to 2024, and has authorized a share repurchase program of up to $100 million [21]

Core Insights - Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN) reported a strong start to fiscal 2026, with gross profit rising 19.8% year over year to a record $489.1 million, resulting in a gross margin of 36.8%, an expansion of 278 basis points from the prior year [1][9] - The company achieved a core margin increase of 204 basis points, driven by lower markdowns in the Retail segment and reduced delivery costs [2] - Operating income surged 72% to $128.2 million, with the operating margin increasing 340 basis points to 9.6% of sales, supported by strong full-price selling and disciplined inventory management [3] Financial Performance - Management expects the second-quarter gross margin to improve by 50-100 basis points year over year, with confidence in achieving a 10% operating margin goal for fiscal 2026 [4] - URBN's shares have rallied 38.4% in the past three months, outperforming the broader Retail-Wholesale sector and the S&P 500 index [6] - The stock is currently trading 10.3% below its 52-week high of $75.80, with technical indicators showing strong performance [9][10] Valuation and Estimates - URBN is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 0.99, below the industry average of 1.65, indicating potential for investors [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has been revised upward, with current fiscal year estimates at $4.96 per share, reflecting year-over-year growth of 22.2% [15] - Sales estimates for the current and next fiscal years are pegged at $6.02 billion and $6.42 billion, implying year-over-year growth of 8.5% and 6.6%, respectively [17]

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Group 1 - Costco has a strong business model as a club store, generating significant revenue from membership fees, which support operating profits and earnings [2][4][5] - Membership fees account for approximately $1.2 billion in revenue, nearly half of Costco's operating profit of about $2.5 billion in Q3 2025 [4] - The company boasts a high membership renewal rate of over 90%, indicating customer satisfaction and loyalty [6] Group 2 - Costco's sales grew by 8% in Q3, with same-store sales increasing by 5.7% and customer traffic up by 5.2% [8] - Customers are purchasing 0.4% more on each visit, showcasing the strength of Costco's business model amid economic uncertainty [8][10] - In contrast to other retailers like Target, which experienced sales declines, Costco continues to perform well [8] Group 3 - Despite its strong business performance, Costco's valuation is a concern, with price-to-sales and price-to-earnings ratios above their five-year averages [11] - The stock price is near all-time highs, making it a challenging investment for those focused on valuation [12] - Investors may prefer to wait for a potential price drawdown before purchasing, as historical data shows notable drops in the stock price [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The "Magnificent Seven" stocks have significantly outperformed the S&P 500, but analysts are beginning to question the sustainability of this trend as earnings growth may slow down in the future [1][2][10]. Group Performance - The Magnificent Seven achieved an aggregate earnings growth of 27.7% in the first quarter, surpassing analysts' expectations of 16.0% [4]. - Six out of the seven companies exceeded earnings expectations, with five growing faster than the average S&P 500 companies' growth of 9.4% [4]. Individual Company Performance - Amazon reported earnings per share (EPS) of $1.59, exceeding expectations of $1.36, marking a 62% year-over-year increase [5]. - Alphabet's EPS was $2.81 against an expected $2.01, reflecting a 49% year-over-year growth [5]. - Meta Platforms achieved an EPS of $6.43, surpassing the expected $5.22, with a 37% year-over-year increase [5]. - Nvidia's EPS was $0.81, above the expected $0.75, showing a 33% year-over-year growth [5]. - Microsoft reported an EPS of $3.46, exceeding expectations of $3.22, with an 18% year-over-year increase [5]. - Apple had an EPS of $1.65, slightly above the expected $1.62, with an 8% year-over-year growth [5]. - Tesla's performance was notably weaker, with an EPS of $0.27, below the expected $0.41, reflecting a 40% year-over-year decline [5][6]. Sector Insights - Amazon and Alphabet demonstrated strong earnings growth driven by their cloud-computing segments, with Amazon Web Services growing sales by 17% and Google Cloud by 28% [7]. - Nvidia faced challenges due to restrictions on GPU sales to China but still reported strong earnings growth, which would have been 57% without certain write-offs [8]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that while the Magnificent Seven will continue to outperform the broader market through 2025, challenges may arise in 2026 as growth rates could converge with the rest of the S&P 500 [10]. - The forecast for first-quarter 2026 indicates a 10.2% earnings growth for the Magnificent Seven, compared to 10.3% for the remaining S&P 500 companies [10]. Investment Strategy - Investors may need to be more selective among the Magnificent Seven, as valuation becomes increasingly important with slowing earnings growth [12]. - There may be more growth opportunities among smaller S&P 500 companies that are trading at fair value despite strong growth prospects [13]. - An alternative investment strategy could involve purchasing an equal-weight S&P 500 index fund to capture upside from smaller companies [14]. - As market dynamics shift, smaller companies may outperform the Magnificent Seven, which are starting to appear expensive relative to future earnings growth [15].