快递行业目前的价格竞争状况如何？ 重视快递行业反内卷 20250721 在过去的 2025 年第二季度，快递行业仍处于激烈的价格竞争状态，导致整体 板块个股业绩预期较低，估值水平也较低。根据调研数据，今年（2025 年） 第一季度，中通、圆通、韵达和申通的单票收入分别同比下降了 8%、6%、10%和 6%。在义乌地区，今年（2025 年）3 月以来价格战尤为 激烈，5 月份快递价格一度跌破 1 元，为历史最低水平。在华南地区，如广州 和潮汕，整个 2025 年的快递价格也长期处于极低水平。 摘要 快递行业反内卷政策有哪些具体落实情况？ 2025 年以来，申通、圆通等快递公司单票收入同比下降，义乌地区价 格战激烈，5 月价格跌破 1 元，华南地区价格也长期处于极低水平，表 明行业竞争加剧。 国家邮政局和市场监管总局于 2025 年 7 月采取行动，加强行业监管， 反对内卷式竞争，顺丰等民营快递龙头企业也参与了相关会议，预示着 监管层面开始推动反内卷政策。 义乌和华南地区出现价格修复迹象，义乌快递底价从 1 元上涨至 1.1 元， 华南地区品牌之间进行价格谈判，淡季价格修复预示旺季价格可能易涨 难跌。 2021 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is experiencing a price competition relief in 2025, with a projected price drop of approximately 7% in the first half of the year, expected to narrow to 6% in the second half, particularly in regions like Yiwu and Chaoshan [1][13] - The industry is projected to handle over 205 billion parcels in 2025, with a growth rate of about 17.2% [2][13] Core Points and Arguments - **Government Initiatives**: The government is actively promoting measures to combat internal competition (反内卷), including the trial of number protection services by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to reduce data monopolies by e-commerce platforms [3][11] - **Digital Management**: Express companies are encouraged to optimize delivery costs through digital management and to stabilize their workforce while avoiding drastic price fluctuations [1][9] - **Focus on Service Quality**: The core of combating internal competition lies in breaking the data monopoly of e-commerce platforms, enhancing service quality through data circulation, and leveraging policy guidance [1][10] - **High-Quality Development**: Companies should delay reducing delivery fees to ensure the earnings of franchisees and couriers, while exploring international markets and factory logistics [9][12] - **Technological Advancements**: The use of unmanned vehicles and smart delivery stations is emphasized to reduce costs and improve efficiency [17][19] Important but Overlooked Content - **Historical Context**: Previous measures, such as the 2021 price increase discussions by the State Post Bureau, have shown that regulatory actions can stabilize prices, and this year’s approach is expected to be more rational and data-driven [6][7] - **Market Dynamics**: The express delivery market is shifting towards enhancing service quality and exploring new markets rather than engaging in fierce price wars [15][31] - **Future Projections**: The industry is expected to see a growth rate of 8% to 10% by 2026, indicating a balance between supply and demand, which will reduce the need for excessive capital expenditure [14][20] - **Challenges in International Expansion**: Companies face challenges such as building cross-border logistics networks and adapting to local markets when expanding internationally [28][30] Conclusion - The express delivery industry is transitioning towards a model focused on high-quality service and technological innovation, moving away from price wars. The government's supportive policies and the industry's adaptation to new technologies are crucial for sustainable growth and efficiency improvements in the coming years [19][32]

Core Insights - The express delivery industry experienced a volume growth rate of 19.1% in April 2025, with SF Express leading the market with a 30% growth rate under its "Activate Operations" strategy [1][5][8] - The total business volume for the industry reached 16.32 billion pieces in April, with a cumulative volume of 61.45 billion pieces from January to April, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.9% [5][8] - The industry revenue for April was 121.28 billion yuan, marking a 10.8% year-on-year increase, while the cumulative revenue for the first four months was 466.92 billion yuan, up 10.9% year-on-year [5][8] Industry Performance - The express delivery industry saw a decline in average revenue per piece, with April's average at 7.43 yuan, down 7.0% year-on-year, and a cumulative average of 7.60 yuan, down 8.3% year-on-year [5][8] - The market share and growth rates of major companies in April were as follows: SF Express (30.0%), YTO Express (25.3%), Shentong Express (21.0%), and Yunda Express (13.4%) [5][8] - Cumulative growth rates for the first four months showed Shentong Express leading at 25.1%, followed by YTO Express (22.7%), SF Express (22.4%), and Yunda Express (20.3%) [5][8] Company Strategies - SF Express has implemented an "Activate Operations" strategy, focusing on organizational and mechanism reforms to enhance decision-making agility and market expansion capabilities [5][8] - The report emphasizes the resilience of demand in the express delivery sector, projecting a 21% growth rate for the entire industry in 2024 [5][8] - The report suggests that the overall industry is moving towards a "de-involution" trend, which is expected to benefit the performance elasticity of express delivery companies in the medium to long term [5][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Yunda Holdings (韵达股份) [1][7][24] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 48.54 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.9%, and a net profit of 1.914 billion, up 17.8% year-on-year [1][3] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 12.19 billion, a 9.3% increase year-on-year, but a net profit decline of 22.1% to 320 million [1][3] - The report highlights the company's leading growth in business volume, with a total of 23.783 billion parcels delivered in 2024, a 26.1% increase year-on-year [2][9] Financial Performance - **2024 Financial Data**: - Revenue: 48.54 billion, up 7.9% - Net Profit: 1.914 billion, up 17.8% - Non-recurring Net Profit: 1.643 billion, up 18.3% - Non-recurring Net Profit Margin: 3.4% [1][3][8] - **2025 Q1 Financial Data**: - Revenue: 12.19 billion, up 9.3% - Net Profit: 320 million, down 22.1% - Non-recurring Net Profit: 310 million, down 19.9% - Non-recurring Net Profit Margin: 2.5% [1][3][8] Business Volume and Market Share - The company completed a total parcel volume of 23.783 billion in 2024, with a market share of 13.58% [2][9] - In Q1 2025, the completed parcel volume was 6.076 billion, with a market share of 13.46% [2][9] Pricing and Profitability - The average revenue per parcel in 2024 was 2.01 yuan, down 12.3% year-on-year [2][9] - The average net profit per parcel in 2024 was 0.08 yuan, down 6.6% year-on-year, while in Q1 2025, it was 0.053 yuan, down 36.6% [2][9] Future Outlook - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2025-2026, estimating a net profit of 1.92 billion and 2.17 billion respectively, with EPS of 0.66 and 0.75 yuan [7][9] - The target price for the stock is set at 8.63 yuan, indicating a potential upside of approximately 21% from the current price of 7.14 yuan [3][7]