Industry Overview - In July 2025, the express delivery industry in China reported a business revenue of 120.64 billion yuan and a business volume of 16.40 billion pieces, representing year-on-year growth of 8.9% and 15.1% respectively [1] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative express delivery business revenue reached 839.42 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, while the cumulative business volume was 112.05 billion pieces, growing by 18.7% year-on-year [1] Company Performance in July 2025 - SF Express led the industry with a business revenue of 18.657 billion yuan and a volume of 1.377 billion pieces, achieving a revenue growth of 15.0% and a volume growth of 33.7% year-on-year [2] - Other companies reported the following revenues and volume: Shentong (4.287 billion yuan, +10.0%, 2.181 billion pieces, +11.9%), Yunda (4.120 billion yuan, +3.8%, 2.162 billion pieces, +7.6%), and YTO (5.371 billion yuan, +12.1%, 2.583 billion pieces, +20.8%) [2] - The market shares for these companies were as follows: SF Express (8.4%), Shentong (13.3%), Yunda (13.2%), and YTO (15.8%) [2] Company Performance from January to July 2025 - For the first seven months of 2025, SF Express reported a business revenue of 127.812 billion yuan (+10.9%) and a volume of 9.190 billion pieces (+26.9%) [3] - Other companies' revenues and volumes were: Shentong (28.980 billion yuan, +14.8%, 14.528 billion pieces, +19.3%), Yunda (28.851 billion yuan, +7.1%, 14.888 billion pieces, +15.1%), and YTO (37.943 billion yuan, +13.9%, 17.446 billion pieces, +21.6%) [3] - The market shares for these companies were: SF Express (8.2%), Shentong (13.0%), Yunda (13.3%), and YTO (15.6%) [3] Pricing and Competition Trends - The trend towards lighter and smaller packages, along with intensified price competition, has impacted the industry’s single-ticket revenue [4] - A recent meeting by the postal bureau emphasized the need to combat excessive competition, suggesting a shift towards more orderly competition in the express delivery sector [4] - As price increases are gradually implemented, the profitability of express delivery companies is expected to improve, reducing the likelihood of a return to the severe price wars seen in 2020 [4] Investment Outlook - The express delivery sector is currently viewed as undervalued, with continued growth in the e-commerce market and new demand from lower-tier markets and reverse logistics [4] - Companies such as ZTO Express, YTO Express, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu Express are recommended for attention due to their potential in the growing market [4] - With improving cyclical expectations, there are opportunities for demand recovery in the mid-to-high-end express market, making SF Express a recommended focus for investment [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for SF Express and Shentong Express, while other companies like Yunda Express and ZTO Express are also highlighted for their potential [8]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry showed robust performance in July 2025, with total revenue reaching 120.64 billion yuan and business volume at 16.40 billion pieces, reflecting year-on-year growth of 8.9% and 15.1% respectively [3]. - For the first seven months of 2025, the industry accumulated revenue of 839.42 billion yuan, up 9.9% year-on-year, and a total business volume of 112.05 billion pieces, marking an 18.7% increase [3]. - The report emphasizes the strong resilience in demand, driven by trends such as lightweight and small parcel deliveries, as well as the growth of reverse logistics and opportunities in lower-tier markets [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In July 2025, major express companies reported the following revenue and volume: SF Express at 18.657 billion yuan (+15.0%), Shentong at 4.287 billion yuan (+10.0%), Yunda at 4.120 billion yuan (+3.8%), and ZTO at 5.371 billion yuan (+12.1%) [4]. - The business volume for these companies was: SF Express at 1.377 billion pieces (+33.7%), Shentong at 2.181 billion pieces (+11.9%), Yunda at 2.162 billion pieces (+7.6%), and ZTO at 2.583 billion pieces (+20.8%) [4]. Company Insights - For the first seven months of 2025, SF Express's revenue was 127.812 billion yuan (+10.9%), with a business volume of 9.190 billion pieces (+26.9%) [5]. - The market share for SF Express increased by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 8.2% [5]. Market Trends - The report notes a shift towards more orderly competition in the express delivery sector, with a focus on reducing price wars and improving profitability for leading companies [6]. - The express delivery sector is currently viewed as undervalued, with expectations for continued growth driven by e-commerce and new market demands [7].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that starting from August 5, the minimum express delivery price in Guangdong Province has been raised to 1.4 yuan per ticket, with a cost increase of 0.4 yuan, impacting the entire industry [1][3] - The price increase is a response to the long-standing "low-price competition" in the express delivery industry, which has led to reduced profit margins for grassroots outlets and poor service quality [1][3] - Prior to Guangdong, Zhejiang Yiwu had already implemented a price increase mechanism, indicating a potential nationwide trend in express delivery price hikes [1][3] Group 2 - According to statistics from the State Post Bureau, the average express delivery price in China has significantly decreased from 28.55 yuan in 2007 to 7.49 yuan in June of this year [2] - In June, the average revenue per ticket for major express companies was as follows: SF Express at 13.67 yuan, Shentong at 1.99 yuan, Yunda at 1.91 yuan, YTO at 2.10 yuan, and Zhongtong at 1.99 yuan, showing a decline of over 40% for several companies compared to 2017 [2] - The State Post Bureau has emphasized the need for improved industry regulation and the elimination of "involutionary" competition, which has led to a significant increase in the stock prices of major express companies since July 8 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in express delivery base prices in Guangdong and Yiwu reflects concerns over the intense competition and low profitability in the express delivery industry, which has led to a downward trend in per-package revenue for major companies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Starting from August 4, the base price for express delivery in Guangdong has been raised by 0.4 yuan per package, bringing the average price to over 1.4 yuan [1]. - Yiwu also raised its express delivery base price by 0.1 yuan to 1.2 yuan starting July 18 [1]. - The overall express delivery costs have increased by approximately 0.4 yuan, although delivery personnel have not yet received news of a corresponding increase in their compensation [1]. Group 2: Revenue Trends - Major express companies, including Shentong, Yunda, Zhongtong, and Yunda, have seen a significant decline in per-package revenue, with figures for 2024 projected at 2.05 yuan, 2.3 yuan, 1.21 yuan, and 2.01 yuan respectively, representing a decrease of about 30% to 40% compared to 2019 [3]. - In June, Shentong and Yunda reported further declines in per-package revenue, dropping below the 2 yuan mark to 1.99 yuan and 1.91 yuan respectively, while Zhongtong decreased to 2.1 yuan [5]. - SF Express maintains a relatively stable per-package revenue of around 15 to 16 yuan, but has also experienced a decline of 11% to 14% compared to the previous year due to industry price wars [5][12]. Group 3: Delivery Challenges - The continuous decline in per-package revenue has led express companies to implement cost control measures, including reducing delivery fees for last-mile services [7]. - The delivery personnel face pressure to choose between home delivery and depositing packages at collection points, with a significant increase in the use of collection points, reaching a 72% entry rate in 2022 [11]. - Complaints regarding non-delivery to specified addresses have surged, with over 19,000 complaints related to this issue, highlighting the challenges in balancing delivery efficiency and service quality [11]. Group 4: Impact on Low-Cost Merchants - The recent price adjustments in express delivery services are expected to significantly impact low-cost merchants, as the low logistics cost is crucial for their survival [15]. - Merchants have indicated that a delivery cost exceeding 3 yuan is no longer sustainable for their profit margins, as the historical rate has been around 1 yuan for small packages [15].

Summary of the Express Delivery Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The express delivery industry has experienced significant growth, with package volume growth outpacing e-commerce GMV and social retail sales, indicating a close relationship with the average order value (AOV) of e-commerce platforms [1][2] - The industry has transitioned through various stages: from the embryonic phase before 2011, explosive growth from 2011 to 2016, a clearing phase from 2017 to 2021, and currently in the late clearing phase since 2021, characterized by reduced competition intensity and a shift from price competition to value competition [1][4] Key Insights - The express delivery sector is projected to maintain a growth rate of around 10% in 2024, with actual growth potentially reaching close to 20%, driven by the rise of low-ticket e-commerce platforms and live-streaming e-commerce [2] - Major players like Pinduoduo, Douyin, and Kuaishou have significantly contributed to package volume, with Pinduoduo accounting for approximately 35% to 40% and Douyin and Kuaishou contributing nearly 30% [2] - The average order value (LOV) is declining due to the increasing share of low-ticket e-commerce platforms, which has profound implications for sellers' logistics cost sensitivity [2] Regulatory Impact - Regulatory interventions in 2021, such as the increase in delivery fees, have improved the profitability of the franchise ecosystem, although challenges remain for franchisees facing intense competition [6][9] - Measures like price floor restrictions in regions such as Guangdong are expected to stabilize operations at grassroots levels and support value recovery for brands and franchisees [3][9] Challenges Faced - The industry is currently facing fierce competition, with many secondary franchise outlets experiencing losses and cash flow issues, leading to salary payment delays for delivery personnel [7] - The distribution of profits between headquarters and channels is critical for the overall competitive capability of express delivery brands [7] Future Outlook - In the short term, companies with weak single-package profitability, such as Shentong, Yunda, and Jitu, are expected to recover profitability more quickly [10] - In the medium to long term, leading companies like Zhongtong and Yuantong are anticipated to gain market share due to their network capabilities and smaller price differentials [10] - The industry is expected to evolve towards brand and value competition, with regulatory measures playing a significant role in curbing malicious price competition [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of Cainiao Express by Shentong Express solidifies the oligopolistic structure of the domestic express delivery market, with the top seven companies controlling 90% of the market share [1] Group 1: Industry Consolidation - The acquisition of Cainiao Express for 362 million yuan by Shentong Express has led to a strong market reaction, with Shentong's stock hitting the limit up and a surge in institutional research [1] - Since 2020, leading express companies have been restructuring through mergers and acquisitions, marking a transition from a chaotic competitive landscape to a more consolidated "Seven Warring States" era [1][2] Group 2: Strategic Differentiation - Major express companies have engaged in significant mergers and acquisitions over the past five years, with notable transactions including Jitu's acquisitions of Best Express and Fengwang, and JD's acquisitions of Debon and Kuaixun [2] - The motivations behind these transactions include focusing on core businesses and expanding scale, with sellers aiming to streamline operations while buyers seek growth opportunities [2][4] Group 3: Financial Performance and Challenges - Data indicates that both Daniao and Fengwang have been struggling financially, with Daniao reporting a revenue of 12.35 billion yuan and a net profit of only 2.01 million yuan last year, while Fengwang faced a loss of 747 million yuan in 2022 [4] - The ongoing price war in the express delivery industry has led to significant pressure on profit margins, with average ticket prices dropping by 20%-30% since 2020, causing many franchise-based companies to face stagnation in revenue despite growth in volume [10][12] Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The regulatory body has intervened to curb the price war, with measures introduced in 2022 to prohibit below-cost pricing and market manipulation, resulting in a temporary rebound in ticket prices [10][12] - In 2025, the National Postal Administration reiterated its stance against "involutionary competition," signaling a strong push for industry consolidation through mergers and acquisitions [12] Group 5: Future Outlook - The wave of mergers and acquisitions in the express delivery industry is seen as a collective evolution following the end of the price war, with expectations of continued market reshuffling [13] - The industry may evolve into a domestic oligopoly with international ecological collaboration, as major players leverage their networks and technology assets to enhance competitiveness [13][16]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting held by the State Post Bureau highlighted two major issues in the express delivery industry: escalating "involution" competition and persistent illegal charges in rural areas [1][3][4] Group 1: Involution Competition - The State Post Bureau has reiterated its stance against "involution" competition, emphasizing the need for express companies to enhance compliance awareness and establish long-term mechanisms to mitigate risks [4][6] - The price war in the industry has severely impacted profit margins, with the average express delivery price dropping by 8.2% year-on-year to 7.5 yuan in the first five months of 2025, despite a 19.3% increase in business volume [6][7] - Historical context shows that the price war began in 2005 and has intensified over the years, particularly with the entry of new players like Jitu [6][10] Group 2: Rural Delivery Issues - Illegal charges in rural express delivery have become a significant concern, with various forms of unauthorized fees being reported, such as forced delivery charges and unreasonable fees for package retrieval [8][9] - The issue of "last mile" delivery in rural areas is critical for enhancing the quality of life for farmers and promoting rural economic development, as highlighted in the central government's policy [9][10] - Recent actions by postal management departments across multiple regions aim to address the issue of illegal charges, with significant penalties imposed on violators [10][11][12] Group 3: Industry Responses and Innovations - Leading companies are exploring differentiated strategies to overcome the challenges posed by involution competition, with Shentong's acquisition of Daniao Logistics being a notable example [10] - Companies like SF Express and JD Logistics are leveraging technology to improve service efficiency and delivery capabilities, moving towards value creation rather than price competition [10][11] - Local governments are focusing on building comprehensive logistics service stations in villages to address the "last mile" delivery challenges and improve service quality [11][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.89 billion RMB for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.99 billion RMB, up 39.8% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of asset impairment losses in the same period last year. The adjusted net profit was 2.21 billion RMB, showing a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year [1][4] - The company aims to increase its business volume and market share as its primary goal for 2025, despite facing short-term pressure from price competition in the industry. The company, as an industry leader, is expected to capture more market share by lowering per-package prices [1][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a total express package volume of 8.54 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, although slightly below the industry growth rate of 21.6%. The market share decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 18.9%, maintaining the top position in the industry. The average revenue per package was 1.25 RMB, down 7.8% year-on-year [1][2] - The company’s per-package cost decreased by 0.4% year-on-year to 0.94 RMB, benefiting from the growth in package volume. However, the adjusted per-package net profit fell by 14.7% year-on-year to 0.26 RMB, primarily due to the decline in per-package revenue [3] Financial Forecasts - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 8.18 billion RMB, reflecting a 17% decrease from previous estimates. The target price has been adjusted down by 19% to 160.1 HKD (20.5 USD) based on a PE ratio of 14.5x for 2025E [4][6] - The company is expected to generate revenues of 52.41 billion RMB in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 18.35%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 8.18 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 7.25% year-on-year [10][19] Market Dynamics - The domestic express delivery industry is experiencing intense price competition, leading to an increase in the proportion of low-value or loss-making packages. The company is responding by lowering per-package prices to secure market volume and maintain its competitive edge [2][4] - The company has expanded its presence in the return package market and continues to collaborate with e-commerce platforms and corporate clients, resulting in a 46% year-on-year growth in its scattered package business volume [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.89 billion RMB for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.99 billion RMB, up 39.8% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of asset impairment losses in the same period last year [1][2] - The company aims to increase its business volume and market share despite facing short-term pressure from price competition in the industry. The company is expected to leverage its position as an industry leader to capture market share by lowering per-package prices [1][4] - The company’s market share decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 18.9%, while the average revenue per package fell by 7.8% to 1.25 RMB due to intense price competition [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a total express package volume of 8.54 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, slightly below the industry growth rate of 21.6% [1][2] - The adjusted net profit per package for Q1 2025 was 0.26 RMB, down 14.7% year-on-year, primarily due to the decline in per-package revenue [3] - The company’s total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 52.41 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.35% [10] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 8.18 billion RMB, reflecting a 17% decrease from previous estimates due to the competitive pricing environment [4] - The target price has been adjusted to 160.1 HKD (20.5 USD), a 19% reduction from the previous target price of 197.6 HKD (25.4 USD) [4][6] - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 14.5x for 2025E, which is a discount compared to its historical average due to increased industry competition [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the express delivery sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [7]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry experienced a robust growth in March 2025, with a business volume increase of 20.3% year-on-year, and a revenue growth of 10.4% [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a cumulative business volume of 451.4 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.6%, while total revenue reached 345.64 billion yuan, up 10.9% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights the resilience of demand in the express delivery sector, driven by trends such as the increasing demand for small parcels and the growth of reverse logistics [4]. - Price competition is intensifying in the industry, but the report suggests that the severity of this "price war" is manageable due to regulatory guidance aimed at promoting long-term high-quality development [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - In March 2025, the express delivery business volume reached 16.66 billion pieces, generating revenue of 124.6 billion yuan [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw major companies like SF Express, YTO Express, Yunda Express, and Shentong Express report revenues of 51.809 billion, 15.441 billion, 12.016 billion, and 11.824 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.2%, 14.1%, 10.6%, and 18.7% [3]. Company Performance - In March 2025, the business volume for major companies was as follows: SF Express at 1.295 billion pieces (+25%), YTO Express at 2.665 billion pieces (+23%), Yunda Express at 2.253 billion pieces (+17%), and Shentong Express at 2.085 billion pieces (+20%) [2]. - The average revenue per piece for these companies showed a decline, with SF Express at 13.82 yuan (-11.8%) and YTO Express at 2.18 yuan (-7.4%) [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the express delivery sector is currently undervalued, with continued growth in the e-commerce market and emerging demands from lower-tier markets [4]. - It recommends focusing on leading companies in the e-commerce express delivery space, such as ZTO Express, YTO Express, Yunda Express, Shentong Express, and Jitu Express, as well as the comprehensive logistics leader SF Express [4].