贸易谈判

Search documents
突发!欧盟,集体跳水!
中国基金报· 2025-07-24 12:12
Core Viewpoint - The European Union has approved a measure to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products totaling €93 billion, causing a significant drop in European stock markets [3][4][9]. Group 1: Economic Data and Market Reaction - European stock markets initially opened higher due to resilient economic data but fell sharply after the approval of the retaliatory tariffs [5]. - The Eurozone's composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 50.6 in June to 51 in July, surpassing analysts' expectations of 50.7, indicating a stabilization above the growth threshold [7]. - The increase in PMI is attributed to the nearing end of a three-year manufacturing recession and an unexpected acceleration in the service sector [7]. Group 2: Retaliatory Tariffs Details - The EU plans to merge two lists of retaliatory tariffs against U.S. exports, totaling approximately €930 billion, which includes high-value industrial products such as aircraft, automobiles, wine, and electrical equipment [9]. - The first round of tariffs, approved in April, targeted U.S. goods worth about €210 billion, including soybeans, motorcycles, and jeans [9]. - If a satisfactory trade agreement is not reached by August 1, the retaliatory measures will take effect on August 7 [10].
铜价小涨 受贸易乐观情绪鼓舞
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-24 09:43
之前美国总统特朗普22日宣布,美国与日本达成贸易协议,美方将对日本进口商品的关税税率由25%降 至15%。 一位期货分析师表示:"8月1日的最后期限正在临近,但没人知道哪些铜产品会受到影响,这让人难以 预测铜价未来的走势。" 其他基本金属方面,三个月期铝下跌0.21%,报每吨2,645.5美元;三个月期锌上涨0.47%,报每吨 2,875.5美元;三个月期锡上涨0.41%,报每吨34,995美元;三个月期镍上涨0.21%,报每吨15,605美元; 三个月期铅上涨0.17%,报每吨2,035.5美元。 7月24日(周四),伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜价周四小幅上涨,因对美国贸易谈判进展的乐观情绪升 温,不过美国铜进口关税的不确定性令交易商保持谨慎。 个月期铜上涨0.14%,最新报每吨9,944美元。 智利矿业部长和全球最大铜生产商--智利国营铜业公司(Codelco)董事长周三表示,他们尚未收到美国将 于8月1日征收50%铜关税的细节。美国大部分进口的精炼铜均来自智利。 据证券时报网报道,当地时间23日,美国总统特朗普表示,将对世界其他大部分国家征收15%至50%的 简单关税。特朗普还说,美国正在与欧盟进行认真谈 ...
谈判时刻:从美日、美欧看中美
Minsheng Securities· 2025-07-24 07:48
Group 1: Trade Negotiation Dynamics - The "Tariff 2.0" deadline on August 1 has prompted Trump to leverage recent political events in Japan to secure a US-Japan agreement[3] - The US aims to use the upcoming US-China talks in Sweden to pressure the EU, indicating a strategic approach to negotiations[3] - Trump's negotiation strategy has shifted to focus on smaller economies like Vietnam and Indonesia, ensuring tangible results to present to the public[4] Group 2: Key Agreements and Tariff Changes - The US has agreed to reduce tariffs on Japan from 25% to 15%, while Japan commits to invest $550 billion in the US[5] - The EU is in a disadvantageous position, facing pressure to reach an agreement similar to Japan's, which may include a 15% tariff on cars[7] - Current agreements with Southeast Asian countries involve tariffs exceeding 10%, with Vietnam facing a 20% tariff and a 40% re-export tariff[4][12] Group 3: Implications for US-China Relations - The upcoming US-China talks are critical, focusing on supply chain issues and potential commitments from China regarding rare earth supplies[9] - The likelihood of significant tariff reductions is low, with expectations that existing tariffs may remain or be slightly adjusted[8] - The US is showing signs of flexibility, indicating a need for a deal with China, which may include discussions beyond trade, such as geopolitical issues[9][10]
泰国财长:泰国与美国周四将举行贸易谈判
news flash· 2025-07-24 06:05
泰国将于周四与美方官员再举行会谈,该东南亚国家寻求在8月1日最后期限前降低特朗普政府威胁要对 其出口商品征收的36%关税。泰国财长披猜周四表示,泰方官员将"回应美方关切"。泰国正在努力争取 与邻国相比具有竞争力的关税税率。 ...
15%至50%关税!深夜宣布!
天天基金网· 2025-07-24 03:30
Group 1 - The article discusses President Trump's announcement of imposing tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on most countries, indicating a potential escalation in trade tensions [1] - The U.S. stock market saw a collective rise on the same day, with the Dow Jones up by 1.14%, Nasdaq up by 0.61%, and S&P 500 up by 0.78%, reflecting a positive market reaction to the news [1] Group 2 - The European Union is preparing for a potential breakdown in trade negotiations with the U.S., planning to impose tariffs on nearly €100 billion worth of U.S. goods if talks fail [2] - The EU's countermeasures include merging previous tariffs on €210 billion worth of U.S. goods with a new list covering €720 billion, which will be submitted for approval by EU member states [2] - Key U.S. products affected by these potential tariffs include Boeing aircraft, automobiles, and bourbon whiskey, with tariffs set to match those threatened by the U.S. [2] Group 3 - The White House announced that Japan will increase its imports of U.S. rice by 75% and expand its import quotas significantly [3] - Japan is set to purchase $8 billion worth of U.S. goods, including corn, soybeans, fertilizers, bioethanol, and sustainable aviation fuel [3] - A new agreement is being explored for Alaska's liquefied natural gas, and Japan has committed to purchasing U.S.-made commercial aircraft, including a deal for 100 Boeing planes [3]
方正中期期货有色金属日度策略-20250724
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 03:21
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The non - ferrous metals sector continued the general rebound trend from last weekend, with its performance strengthening compared to the previous period. The impact of trade negotiations and tariffs was temporarily alleviated. The market was focusing on changes in interest - rate cut expectations. The US economic data was resilient, and the Fed's decision - making independence led to changes in interest - rate cut expectations. In China, policies were introduced to promote stable growth in key industrial sectors, and major infrastructure projects were launched, which drove the non - ferrous metals sector to follow the upward trend, but the sustainability was average. The non - ferrous metals market showed an oscillatory and strengthening trend. Future operations should be cautiously bullish in the short - term, but avoid over - chasing the rise [11][12]. - Different non - ferrous metal varieties had different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper was expected to show a situation of weak supply and strong demand, with inventory depletion likely to continue; zinc was in a state of increasing supply and weak demand, with an oscillatory and strengthening trend in the short - term and a bearish outlook in the medium - term; aluminum and its related products in the industry had different trends in cost, supply, and demand, and corresponding investment strategies were recommended [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector rebounded. Trade and tariff impacts were temporarily alleviated. The market focused on interest - rate cut expectations. China's policies promoted industrial growth, driving the non - ferrous metals sector. The sustainability of the upward trend was limited. Future operations should be short - term cautiously bullish, and attention should be paid to the resonance between supply - demand fundamentals and the macro - environment [11][12]. - **Variety - Specific Analysis** - **Copper**: Social inventory decreased, supply was expected to decline, and demand was expected to increase. It was expected to stop falling and rebound, with support at 78000 - 79000 yuan/ton and resistance at 80000 - 82000 yuan/ton. The strategy was to buy on dips [3][14]. - **Zinc**: Supply increased, demand was weak, but it was oscillatory and strengthening in the short - term. Support was at 21600 - 21800 yuan/ton, resistance was at 22800 - 23000 yuan/ton. Short - term long positions were recommended, and short positions were considered in the medium - term [4][14]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: In the aluminum industry chain, different products had different trends in cost, supply, and demand. For example, for aluminum, 09 contract had resistance at 21000 - 21200 yuan/ton and support at 20000 - 20200 yuan/ton; for alumina, 09 contract had resistance at 3700 - 3900 yuan/ton and support at 2800 - 3000 yuan/ton. Strategies such as reducing long positions and buying out - of - the - money put options were recommended [5][16]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals were weak in both supply and demand. It was recommended to wait and see, reduce long positions, with resistance at 270000 - 290000 yuan/ton and support at 250000 - 255000 yuan/ton. Buying out - of - the - money put options was considered [6]. - **Lead**: It followed the sector to rebound and then consolidated. Supply was expected to increase, and demand needed to be further restored. Support was at 16800 - 17000 yuan/ton, resistance was at 17200 - 17400 yuan/ton. Selling out - of - the - money put options on dips was recommended [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel had an overall oversupply situation, with short - term bullish and medium - term bearish trends. Stainless steel had a situation of weak supply and demand, with support at 12300 - 12400 yuan/ton and resistance at 12800 - 13000 yuan/ton [8][17]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Market Review The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures were provided. For example, copper closed at 79590 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; zinc closed at 22975 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [18]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Position Analysis The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector was presented, including the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors of different varieties such as polysilicon, silver, gold, zinc, etc [20]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Spot Market The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals were provided, such as the Yangtze River spot price of copper was 79930 yuan/ton, up 0.13%; the Yangtze River spot average price of 0 zinc was 22830 yuan/ton, up 0.26% [21][23]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Chain Graphs related to the industry chain of various non - ferrous metals were presented, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [24][28][30][35][41][44][49][56]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Arbitrage Graphs related to arbitrage of various non - ferrous metals were presented, including the comparison of domestic and foreign price ratios, basis differences, and price differences between different contract months of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [57][61][62][66][69][71]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Options Graphs related to options of various non - ferrous metals were presented, including historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open - interest ratio of copper, zinc, and aluminum options [75][78][81].
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250724
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 01:12
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US has reached trade agreements with Japan and is likely to reach one with the EU, leading to a decline in market risk - aversion and a continued rise in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic growth in H1 was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed in June. Policy measures are expected to boost domestic risk appetite. [2] - Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term; bonds may experience a high - level correction; commodities in different sectors have different trends, with some being slightly stronger and some being volatile. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Macro situation**: Overseas, the US - Japan trade agreement sets a 15% tariff rate on Japan, and the probability of the US - EU trade agreement has increased. Market risk appetite has risen, and the US dollar index is weak. Domestically, H1 economic growth was higher than expected, but June consumption and investment slowed. Policy measures aim to boost domestic risk appetite. [2] - **Asset trends**: Stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term and it's advisable to be cautiously long; bonds are expected to correct at a high level and it's advisable to wait and see; for commodities, black metals may have increased short - term fluctuations and it's advisable to be cautiously long; non - ferrous metals may rebound with short - term fluctuations and it's advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals may fluctuate and it's advisable to wait and see; precious metals may be volatile at a high level and it's advisable to be cautiously long. [2] Stock Index - The domestic stock market continued to rise, driven by sectors such as hydropower, securities, insurance, and kitchen and bathroom appliances. The short - term macro upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. It's advisable to be cautiously long in the short - term. [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market declined on Wednesday. With the approaching tariff deadline on August 1st, market risk appetite has recovered, putting pressure on precious metals. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed. In the short - term, precious metals are expected to be volatile at a high level, and gold still has strategic allocation value in the long - term. [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel futures and spot prices continued to rebound. The "anti - involution" policy supports the cost of steel, and the actual demand is okay. The supply increase space is limited in the short - term. It's advisable to view the steel market as slightly stronger with fluctuations in the short - term. [4][5] - **Iron ore**: Iron ore futures and spot prices weakened on Wednesday. The iron - water output is at a high level with limited upward space. The supply and demand situation is complex, and it's advisable to view the price as range - bound in the short - term. [5] - **Silicon manganese/silicon iron**: The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron may rebound following coal prices. The production situation of silicon manganese is relatively stable, and the mentality of silicon - iron merchants is positive. [6] Chemicals - **Soda ash**: The soda ash futures contract was weak on Wednesday. The supply is still in an oversupply situation, the demand is weak, and the profit has declined. The "anti - involution" policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is still under pressure. [7] - **Glass**: The glass futures contract was weak on Wednesday. The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the profit has increased. The "anti - involution" policy supports the price. [8] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US - Japan trade agreement has an impact on the market. The short - term sentiment is boosted by the industrial policy, but the future copper price depends on the tariff implementation time. [9] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price fell, following the alumina trend. The fundamental situation is weak, and the policy impact is limited. It's not advisable to short for now. [9] - **Aluminum alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations, but the upward space is limited. [10] - **Tin**: The supply is recovering, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, with upward pressure in the medium - term. [10] - **Lithium carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures price fell. The production has increased, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations due to the "anti - involution" policy. [11] - **Industrial silicon**: The industrial silicon futures price rose. The "anti - involution" policy drives the price, and it's expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations in the short - term. [11][12] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures price rose significantly. The short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to market feedback and capital changes. [12] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil**: The news of possible progress in US - EU trade negotiations has offset the impact of weak spot markets. However, the increase in Cushing crude oil inventory and upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations bring uncertainties. The oil price is expected to be mainly volatile. [13] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price has回调. The demand in the peak season is average, and the inventory is not being effectively reduced. The short - term price will follow the crude oil price but may be weak with fluctuations. [13] - **PX**: The PX price is in a slightly stronger range - bound situation. The supply is tight, but the upward space is limited. [14] - **PTA**: The PTA price is expected to be volatile. The demand is in the off - season, and the processing fee is low, with a risk of production reduction. [14] - **Ethylene glycol**: The ethylene glycol price is oscillating at the support level. The inventory is slightly decreasing, and the price is expected to be volatile. [14] - **Methanol**: The methanol price is short - term strong but limited by the fundamentals. The inventory has increased, and attention should be paid to capital flow. [16] - **PP**: The PP price has risen due to policy expectations, but the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The long - term price is under pressure. [17] - **PL**: The PL price has limited upward drivers due to supply pressure and weak demand. The price may be volatile due to new listing and policy impact. [17] - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE price has adjusted. The import arbitrage window is open, and the demand is weak. The short - term price may rebound but has limited space, and the long - term price may decline. [18] - **Urea**: The urea price has risen due to market sentiment, but the demand is weakening, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to be weak with fluctuations. [18][19] Agricultural Products - **US soybeans**: The price of US soybeans has been affected by weather. The expected rainfall may limit crop pressure. [20] - **Soybean and rapeseed meal**: It's advisable to increase long positions in US soybeans above 1000. The short - term price of soybean meal is still strong, but the upward space is limited. [20] - **Soybean and rapeseed oil**: The inventory pressure of soybean oil is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The price of rapeseed oil may decline if palm oil corrects. The soybean - palm oil spread may widen. [21] - **Palm oil**: It's a short - term bull market for palm oil, but the upward resistance is increasing. It's advisable to be cautious when chasing orders. [21] - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is increasing, and the demand is weak. The short - term price is testing the support level. Policy rumors have affected the futures price, but the long - term price increase is limited. [22] - **Corn**: The corn price has slightly rebounded. The supply is gradually tightening, but the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be in a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term. [22][23]
美日协议破局!欧洲和韩国有了“模版”和压力
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-24 00:29
根该协议,美国还要求日本购买80亿美元的美国商品,包括玉米、大豆和化肥,100架波音飞机以及更 多国防设备采购。 美日贸易协定为其他国家提供谈判模板,但也加大了它们在8月1日"关税大限"前达成协议的压力。 分析指出,尽管协议缺乏传统文本细节,主要通过官方声明和社会媒体公布,但它为欧盟和韩国等伙伴 树立了"模版",促使它们加速谈判,以争取低于威胁水平的关税,并通过类似投资和采购承诺换取让 步。 欧盟韩国加快谈判步伐 专家观点认为,美日贸易协议设定了"禁止性水平以下"的关税基准。 Center for Strategic and International Studies高级顾问、前商务部官员William Reinsch表示: 据央视新闻,日本与美国就关税问题达成一致,美方将向日本征收15%的关税,并增加进口美国大米。 该协议还包括日本向美国投资5500亿美元的承诺。 Owen Tedford分析表示: "如果我是欧盟,10%的希望已经破灭,15%是重点;如果我能复制日本协议,那将是胜 利。" 行业关税谈判空间显现 分析师特别关注日本在汽车出口行业关税方面成功谈判的减免。这些行业关税一直是许多贸易谈判的主 要症 ...
张尧浠:贸易谈判突转乐观、金价遇阻回落前景仍看涨
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-24 00:24
具体走势上,金价自亚市开于3431.72美元/盎司,先行走强于8点时段录得日内高点3438.67美元,之后遇阻回落,日内基本处于3420-30美元区间内震荡盘 整,到美盘开盘后,空头力量加大,连续回落走低,于0点时段录得日内低点3381.55美元,最后有所止跌回升,收于3387.02美元,日振幅57.12美元,收 跌44.7美元,跌幅1.3%。 展望今日周四(7月24日):国际黄金开盘先行窄幅波动,受到美元指数偏弱走盘的支撑而限制了跌幅,不过,金价技术上日内短线仍有回落风险,稳健者 可待进一步触及10日均线或者是中轨线支撑再度看涨反弹。 其美元指数,日图走势保持回落趋势整体偏弱运行,周图也再度跌至5-10周均线阻力下方,布林带也倾向向下延伸,看空前景加大,月图走势也保持着回 落趋势继续走低,故此,整体上,将继续对金价产生利好预期,因而,金价要么继续维持震荡调整行情,要么再度反弹走强。 日内将可关注欧洲央行公布利率决议和欧洲央行行长拉加德召开货币政策新闻发布会。市场预期利率保持不变,根据之前拉加德讲话言论欧元区经济增长 承压来看,整体偏向利好美元,利空金价; 同时,还将关注美国至7月19日当周初请失业金人数(万 ...