Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar remains stable despite increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, but experiences a decline with the rise in odds of Kevin Hassett being nominated as the next Fed Chair [1] Group 1 - The U.S. dollar's steadiness is attributed to surging odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] - The dollar stumbles as the likelihood of Kevin Hassett's nomination for Fed Chair increases [1]

Market Overview - Asia-Pacific markets opened higher, influenced by Wall Street gains and expectations of a potential U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December [1][3] - Markets are pricing in over an 84% chance of a Fed rate cut in December, with New York Fed President indicating room for lower rates "in the near term" [3] Company Performance - Kioxia's shares fell more than 12% following reports that Bain Capital plans to sell approximately 350 billion yen ($2.24 billion) worth of shares, reducing its ownership from 51% to 44% [4] - Kioxia reported fiscal second-quarter earnings that missed expectations, leading to a 23.03% drop in its shares the following day [5] Regional Market Movements - Japanese tech stocks saw gains, with Advantest rising 2.5% and Tokyo Electron increasing by 0.61% [3] - South Korea's Kospi advanced by 0.67%, while the small-cap Kosdaq climbed 0.64% [5] - Australia's ASX/S&P 200 was trading 1.2% higher, with inflation accelerating in October, marking the fastest pace in seven months [5][6]

Market Overview - The Dow is up 1.3%, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 also showing gains, driven by hopes of a Fed rate cut in December benefiting small-cap companies [2][4]. - The 10-year Treasury note is at 4%, and the US dollar is slightly declining [3]. - Healthcare and consumer discretionary sectors are performing well, with notable gains from retailers like Walmart and Home Depot [3][4]. Big Tech Performance - Alphabet is nearing a $4 trillion market cap, driven by a recent rally and strong performance from its new AI model, Gemini 3 [24][40]. - Nvidia's stock is down 3% amid competition concerns, particularly from Google's potential AI chip sales to Meta [5][73]. - Alphabet's stock has outperformed other tech giants like Nvidia and Microsoft, with a year-to-date performance increase of over 100% compared to Nvidia's slump [36][40]. Investment Insights - Investors are advised to consider trimming positions in overexposed tech stocks, particularly those heavily weighted in portfolios, to manage risk [10][11]. - Founder-led companies are highlighted as potentially more stable investments due to conservative balance sheets and cash reserves [15][16]. - The AI infrastructure buildout is identified as a significant investment opportunity, particularly in power generation and industrial sectors, as power is seen as the biggest bottleneck for AI growth [118][120]. Retail Sector Updates - Retailers like Abercrombie & Fitch and Kohl's reported mixed results, with Abercrombie's Hollister brand showing strong same-store sales growth of 15% [78][81]. - Best Buy reported a 3% increase in same-store sales, attributed to AI-driven product innovations [85][87]. Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin is down 1.5%, trading around $86,000, unable to sustain a recent rally [6][74]. - Coinbase has been downgraded from buy to hold due to its stock trading at a higher range compared to peers [74].

Core Viewpoint - The market has the potential to rise even if the Federal Reserve (Fed) does not cut interest rates, primarily due to strong earnings growth despite some economic indicators showing weakness [3][4]. Economic Indicators - Recent retail sales numbers were weak, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) did not show strong performance, indicating mixed economic signals [3]. - The unemployment rate is increasing, which raises concerns about the Fed's timing in making rate cuts [4]. Earnings Performance - Analysts had anticipated low single-digit increases in earnings for the first three quarters of the year, but actual earnings growth came in at 10% to 15% [3][4]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is facing challenges that may not be resolved by lowering interest rates, including retiring baby boomers and a skills mismatch among workers [5][6]. - Despite strong GDP growth projected at around 4% for the second and third quarters, payroll employment growth is lagging, suggesting productivity increases are outpacing job growth [6]. Federal Reserve's Position - The Fed's potential rate cuts may not significantly impact the bond market, as seen in previous instances where rate cuts did not lead to lower bond yields [7][8]. - Inflation remains around 3%, complicating the Fed's decision-making process regarding rate adjustments [8]. Market Sentiment - There is a prevailing sentiment that if the Fed lowers rates, it could reduce the risk of economic weakness, but persistent inflation may lead to future rate hikes [8][9]. - Concerns exist about a potential "meltup" in the stock market, where rapid price increases could lead to instability [11].

Economic Indicators - The dollar index fell by -0.44% due to weaker-than-expected US economic data, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting [1] - US September retail sales rose by +0.2% month-over-month, below expectations of +0.4% [2] - The final demand PPI for September increased by +2.7% year-over-year, slightly above expectations of +2.6%, while PPI excluding food and energy rose by +2.6%, below expectations of +2.7% [3] - The Conference Board's US November consumer confidence index dropped by -6.8 to a 7-month low of 88.7, significantly lower than the expected 93.3 [4] Market Reactions - The markets are pricing in an 80% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the FOMC at the next meeting on December 9-10 [4] - The euro rose by +0.45% against the dollar, supported by the weaker dollar and positive economic news from the Eurozone [5] - Eurozone new car registrations in October increased by +5.8% year-over-year, marking the fourth consecutive monthly rise [6] - The USD/JPY fell by -0.56% as the yen strengthened amid concerns of potential Japanese government intervention in the forex market [7]

RT Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine)JUST IN: Chances for a Fed rate cut in December spike to 85%, according to Polymarket 🇺🇸Bullish for Bitcoin! 🚀 https://t.co/a0RQ37bpzN ...

The Conference Board US Nov consumer confidence index fell -6.8 to a 7-month low of 88.7, weaker than expectations of 93.3.The latest weekly update from ADP showed US private payrolls fell -13,500 a week, on average, in the four weeks ending November 8.The US Sep S&P CaseShiller composite-20 home price index rose +1.36% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.40% y/y and the smallest pace of increase in more than two years.US Sep PPI final demand rose +2.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +2.6% y/y. However, ...

Core Viewpoint - The tech sector, particularly AI-related stocks, is experiencing significant selling pressure, with concerns about overspending and fundamental issues emerging as key themes in the market [2][4][5]. Group 1: AI Sector Performance - Nvidia is facing heavy selling pressure, breaking through a key support level at 170, indicating a shift in AI sentiment from positive to negative over the past few months [2][3]. - Oracle's upcoming earnings report on December 8 is anticipated to be crucial for the AI sector, as it may address concerns regarding its heavy debt issuance and overall market sentiment [4][5]. - The overall sentiment around AI investments has deteriorated, with companies like Oracle and Alphabet showing mixed performance, raising questions about the sustainability of the AI growth narrative [3][5]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Indicators - The market is currently pricing in an over 80% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, a significant increase from about 30% just a month ago [7][8]. - Mixed macroeconomic data, including PPI and consumer confidence, is complicating the economic outlook, with inflation remaining elevated despite signs of a softening labor market [10][14]. - The Federal Reserve is in a challenging position, needing to balance elevated inflation with a potentially weakening labor market, which could influence future rate decisions [10][14]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The S&P 500 and NASDAQ have recently lost support at the 50-day simple moving average, with a critical test occurring at the 100-day simple moving average [16][17]. - A potential bounce off the 100-day moving average indicates a critical juncture for the markets, with bulls needing to clear the 50-day moving average to confirm an uptrend [17][18]. - The outcome of this technical analysis will be clearer by the end of the week, especially with the upcoming shortened trading week [19].

Market Overview - The US stock market showed mixed signals on November 25, with the Dow Jones up 0.6%, the S&P 500 flat, and the Nasdaq down 0.3%, indicating ongoing concerns about high valuations in AI and tech stocks [1] - Despite a tech rally on Monday, all three indexes remain on track for monthly losses as investors weigh retail sales, inflation data, and the Federal Reserve's next move [1] Technology Sector - Tech shares led market volatility, with Nvidia shares falling over 4% after reports that Meta plans to invest billions in AI chips from Google, signaling increased competition [2][7] - Other tech giants like Alphabet and Alibaba performed well, supported by strong earnings and AI-driven growth momentum, which reassured investors about their resilience amid rising competition [8] Federal Reserve and Rate Cut Expectations - The market is pricing in over an 80% chance of a Fed rate cut at the December meeting, with Fed Governor Chris Waller advocating for easing to support economic growth [3][10] - A potential rate cut is viewed as beneficial for growth stocks, particularly in technology and consumer discretionary sectors, although uncertainty remains regarding the timing and scope of such a move [12] Retail Sales and Consumer Spending - Retail sales data presents a mixed picture, with September sales rising only 0.2%, below forecasts, while October data showed a rebound with sales excluding autos and gas up 0.6% month-over-month and 5% year-over-year, driven by online and food store sales [4][14] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.3%, raising the annual rate to 2.7%, indicating moderate but persistent price pressures [15] Earnings Season - The earnings season is gaining attention, with Kohl's and Best Buy reporting this week, providing insights into consumer demand ahead of the holiday season [5][21] - Investors are closely monitoring these results to gauge spending trends and assess whether consumers are holding back [5] Energy Market - Energy markets experienced significant declines, with Brent crude falling 1.9% to below $62 per barrel and WTI dropping 2% to below $58, both down nearly 5% over the past five sessions [17][22] - Natural gas prices also fell, with futures down 5.9% to trade under $4.40 per MMBtu, influenced by peace-talk progress and strong US production [19]

Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) decreased by -0.35% due to weaker-than-expected US economic data, including September retail sales and core PPI, which increased the likelihood of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting [1] - US September retail sales rose by +0.2% month-over-month, below the expected +0.4% [2] - The final demand PPI for September increased by +2.7% year-over-year, slightly above the expected +2.6%, while PPI excluding food and energy rose by +2.6%, below the expected +2.7% [3] - The S&P Case-Shiller composite-20 home price index for September rose by +1.36% year-over-year, below the expected +1.40%, marking the smallest increase in over two years [3] - The Conference Board's US November consumer confidence index fell by -6.8 to a 7-month low of 88.7, weaker than the expected 93.3 [3] Market Reactions - The markets are pricing in an 80% chance of a 25 basis point cut in the fed funds target range at the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10 [4] - The euro (EUR/USD) increased by +0.50% as the weaker dollar supported it, alongside positive economic news from the Eurozone [5] - Eurozone new car registrations for October rose by +5.8% year-over-year to 917,000 units, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase [6] - Swaps indicate a 2% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB at the December 18 policy meeting [6] Currency Movements - The USD/JPY decreased by -0.57% as the yen strengthened against the dollar, driven by concerns over potential Japanese government intervention in the forex market [7] - The decline in T-note yields also contributed to the yen's strength [7]