September started with bullish expectations that were soon undermined by the consecutive selloffs led by the top altcoin, Ethereum . ETH has been consistently declining since Aug. 24, after hitting its new all-time high of $4,953. The outflows from the US-based spot ETH exchange-traded funds added to the negative sentiment. These investment products recorded a net outflow of $1.04 billion between Aug. 29 and Sept. 8 in six consecutive trading days, according to data from Farside Investors. Ethereum is 1 ...

Company Mergers and Acquisitions - Anglo American and Teck Resources are merging in a $53 billion deal, creating the world's fifth-largest copper company and marking the second-largest mining M&A deal ever [1] - Investors reacted positively, with Anglo shares rising 9% and Teck shares increasing by 11% following the announcement [1] Employment and Economic Indicators - The number of new U.S. jobs created through March was revised down by almost a million, marking the largest downward revision on record [2] - U.S. employment growth revisions and upcoming inflation data are influencing market sentiment and expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy [5][7] Market Performance - Japan's Nikkei index reached a record high but closed lower, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq achieved record closing highs [3] - UK miners saw a 2.7% rise in shares due to the Anglo/Teck merger, while other sectors experienced varied performance [3] Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates next week despite inflation being around 3%, which is above the 2% target [7][8] - There is a growing sentiment that 3% inflation may be considered the new 2%, as consumer inflation expectations have risen [13][14] Global M&A Activity - Global M&A activity reached $2.6 trillion in the first seven months of the year, the highest since 2021, driven by tight spreads and favorable financial conditions [6]

Gold pared gains after reaching a fresh record on Tuesday as traders parsed a US jobs markdown while awaiting key inflation data that will shed light on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate cut trajectory. US job growth was far less robust in the year through March than previously reported. The number of workers on payrolls will likely be revised down by a record 911,000, or 0.6%, according to the government’s preliminary benchmark revision out Tuesday. The final figures are due early next year. Most Rea ...

Employment Situation Report - The U.S. labor market showed weakness in August with only +22K nonfarm payrolls added, significantly below the anticipated +75K and the revised +79K from the previous month [1] - The unemployment rate increased to +4.3%, marking the highest level since October 2021 [1] Job Creation and Wage Growth - The private sector contributed +38K new jobs, while federal government employment decreased by -88K since the beginning of the year [2] - Hourly wages rose by +0.3%, consistent with the prior month, but year-over-year wage growth declined to +3.7%, the lowest since 2021 [2] Job Revisions and Labor Market Indicators - July's job total was revised up by +6K, but June's figures were revised down by -27K, resulting in a loss of -13K jobs, the first negative monthly figure since December 2020 [3] - Labor force participation remained low at 62.3%, and the average workweek was at 34.2 hours, the second-lowest of the year [4] Sector Performance - Job gains were seen in Education and Healthcare (+46K) and Leisure and Hospitality (+28K), while Professional and Business Services lost -17K jobs and Manufacturing shed -12K jobs [4] Market Reaction - Following the report, pre-market futures rose significantly, with the Dow increasing from -138 points to +22, and the Nasdaq rising from +101 points to +226 [6] - Bond yields decreased, with the 10-year yield at +4.10% and the 2-year yield at +3.52% [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the upcoming September meeting has surged to +100%, with discussions of a potential 50-basis point cut [7] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the weaker job numbers, indicating that rate cuts are likely despite rising inflation metrics [8]

Group 1 - Proactive provides fast, accessible, informative, and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience [2] - The news team covers medium and small-cap markets, as well as blue-chip companies, commodities, and broader investment stories [3] - Proactive has bureaus and studios in key finance and investing hubs including London, New York, Toronto, Vancouver, Sydney, and Perth [2] Group 2 - The company is focused on sectors such as biotech and pharma, mining and natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging digital and EV technologies [3] - Proactive adopts technology to enhance workflows and improve content production [4] - Automation and software tools, including generative AI, are used, but all content is edited and authored by humans [5]

Market Overview - U.S. equity markets experienced modest gains in August 2025, with the S&P 500 increasing by 2.2%, marking its fourth consecutive month of growth, driven by investor optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts and strong corporate earnings despite ongoing inflation and tariff concerns [1][9] Financial Services Sector Performance - The Financial Services sector saw significant investor optimism, with the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index and S&P Banks Select Industry Index rising by 5.5% and 8.3%, respectively, fueled by AI momentum, digital advertising strength, and expectations of a Fed rate cut [2][6] - Stronger-than-expected earnings reports and positive guidance from major financial institutions contributed to the bullish sentiment, alongside a rebound in capital markets activity [7][9] Key Financial Services Stocks - Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) is focusing on growing fee-based capital-light businesses, which currently account for 52% of its segmental revenues, with management projecting double-digit growth in this area over the long term [8][10] - Synchrony Financial (SYF) is leveraging its strong distribution channels and has expanded its offerings through acquisitions and partnerships, although it anticipates a decline in net revenues for 2025 due to higher Retailer Share Arrangements and lower loan receivables [14][16] - American Express Company (AXP) benefits from its dual role as a credit card issuer and network operator, with a projected revenue increase of 8-10% for 2025, despite exposure to credit risk from macroeconomic challenges [18][21] - Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) is expanding its non-interest income base through strategic partnerships and acquisitions, with plans to open 50-60 new branches annually in high-growth regions from 2025 to 2028 [23][24] - Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (CFG) is executing a long-term growth strategy focused on wealth management and market expansion, with a new private bank initiative expected to raise $7 billion in deposits by 2024 [27][30]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 recorded a 1.5% gain in August, marking its fourth consecutive month of increases, with a record high achieved during the month [1] - The Dow Jones rose by 3.2% in August, also reflecting its fourth successive monthly increase [1] - The Nasdaq experienced a 1.6% gain, achieving its fifth consecutive monthly rise, the longest winning streak in nearly a year and a half [2] - Small-cap stocks, represented by the Russell 2000, surged approximately 7% in August, marking its fourth consecutive monthly gain and the strongest streak in over four years [2] Economic Indicators - Core inflation in the U.S. was reported at 2.9% seasonally adjusted in July, meeting estimates but higher than June, raising concerns as it remains above the Fed's 2% target [3] - Consumer sentiment fell to a three-month low in August, driven by tariff-related concerns and inflation expectations [4] - Despite the inflation data, there is an 86.4% chance of a quarter-point rate cut in September, indicating market confidence in a potential easing of monetary policy [5] Sector Analysis - The tech sector faced volatility in late August, with fears of an AI bubble impacting market sentiment [6] - Major tech stocks experienced declines on the last day of August, with NVIDIA down over 3.3%, Tesla down 3.5%, Meta down 1.7%, and Amazon down over 1.1% [7] Investment Opportunities - The Roundhill Cannabis ETF (WEED) surged 91.3% in August, while the Amplify Seymour Cannabis ETF (CNBS) rose 83.2%, driven by speculation of potential reclassification of marijuana [9] - The KraneShares SSE STAR Market 50 Index ETF (KSTR) increased by 29.7%, focusing on the largest companies on the SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board [11] - The Sprott Active Gold & Silver Miners ETF (GBUG) rose 25.5%, targeting investments in gold and silver mining companies [12] - The VanEck ChiNext ETF (CNXT) gained 25%, tracking the performance of major China A-share stocks [13] - The CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI) increased by 23.9%, providing exposure to companies involved in bitcoin mining operations [14]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸Traders still expect a Fed rate cut in September.Current odds are 87%. https://t.co/PSCVwuWuhP ...

Market Expectations - Traders anticipate a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Asia Credit Market - **Key Focus**: Implications of Federal Reserve rate cuts on Asia credit and India's increasing reliance on Russian oil imports Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Fed Rate Cut Implications**: - Market participants anticipate a Fed rate cut soon, which has improved risk sentiment and led to credit spreads tightening to all-time lows. Historically, after the first cut, an inverse yield/spread relationship develops, but spread decompression is muted without a recession [3][23][24] - Current average high-grade spread is at 63 basis points, marking an all-time tight, while high yield is at decade tights, approximately 48 basis points from the all-time tights reached in April 2010 [24] 2. **Market Activity and Expectations**: - Expectation for spreads to trade sideways-to-wider as primary market activity resumes, with a recommendation to turn neutral and add risk through new deals. In the secondary market, credit selection and idiosyncratic opportunities in high yield and BBBs are favored [2][8][27] - September typically sees elevated new issuance volumes, which may shift bond market technicals [10] 3. **India's Oil Imports from Russia**: - India's imports of Russian oil have surged from less than 1% of total crude imports before 2022 to nearly 35-40% by mid-2025, driven by attractive discounts [48] - The US has imposed a 25% 'secondary' tariff on Indian imports, raising total tariffs to 50%, which could impact India's export competitiveness [4][48][60] - Despite the tariffs, India's reliance on Russian oil has provided significant savings on its oil import bill, estimated at around USD 7-10 billion in 2024 [48] 4. **Performance of Specific Credit Segments**: - In the past two weeks, Asia high-grade spreads have compressed by approximately 6.6 basis points, with notable performance from wider-spread names in the BBB segment [9] - High yield credits have seen spreads tighten by 24 basis points, with BB-rated credits outperforming B-rated credits [9] 5. **Economic and Market Outlook**: - The growth and economic backdrop will significantly influence credit performance. If no global recession occurs in the next year, spread decompression potential will remain muted [28][45] - The document emphasizes the importance of credit selection and idiosyncratic opportunities rather than aggressively selling risk, despite tight absolute spreads [29][45] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Technical Market Dynamics**: The document notes that HKD liquidity tightness remains a focus, which could affect issuance in USD format from Hong Kong/Macau issuers [10] - **Sector-Specific Performance**: The performance of bonds from Macau Gaming issuers has remained flat, likely due to new supply from WYNMAC [9] - **Refinery Capabilities**: Not all Indian refineries can process heavier grade Russian crude, which limits the proportion of Russian crude used domestically and helps mitigate excessive reliance on a single supplier [68] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the Asia credit market and the implications of geopolitical developments on India's oil imports.