Group 1 - Ukrainian security services conducted a drone attack on a Russian ammunition depot located in Crimea, resulting in strong explosions and a fire [1] - Russian President's spokesperson, Peskov, stated that work on resolving the Ukraine issue will continue, and both sides have agreed to exchange ceasefire condition lists [1][2] - Peskov emphasized the importance of confirming the qualifications of Ukrainian signatories before signing any documents [1] Group 2 - The recent direct negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Istanbul were deemed positive by Russia and Turkey, but European leaders expressed disappointment over the lack of significant progress [2][4] - European leaders, including French President Macron and German Chancellor Merz, criticized Russia for not showing sincerity in the negotiations and indicated a potential increase in sanctions if Russia continues to reject ceasefire proposals [4] - Ukrainian President Zelensky called for a strong response from Western countries following the negotiations, highlighting the fluctuating stance of the U.S. government on the issue [5]

金十数据整理：俄乌冲突最新24小时局势跟踪（5月17日） 冲突情况： 1. 乌克兰武装部队总司令瑟尔斯基表示，参加对乌克兰作战的俄罗斯地面部队人数超过64万人。 2. 俄罗斯国防部：昨夜摧毁65架乌克兰无人机。 3. 俄罗斯国防部：俄军已控制乌克兰东部维尔内波尔地区。 和谈情况： 1. 德国总理默茨表示，欧盟将于5月20日对俄罗斯实施制裁，以回应俄罗斯总统普京拒绝与乌克兰总统 泽连斯基举行面对面会谈。 2. 克里姆林宫：（被问及特朗普关于与普京会晤的评论时）双方会晤需要提前准备，并且必须取得实质 性成果。 3. 俄乌会谈仅持续两小时，俄方要求乌方撤军作为停火条件。乌克兰最高拉达议员热列兹尼亚克表示， 伊斯坦布尔谈判毫无成果。 4. 乌克兰国防部长：乌克兰与俄罗斯就1000名战俘交换达成一致。已与俄罗斯团队讨论了双方总统的会 晤事宜。 5. 乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，如果俄罗斯拒绝停火，应当立即实施强有力的制裁措施。 9. 俄罗斯代表团：对会谈成果表示满意。双方已同意各自提出停火条款。同意在双方提交相关信息后继 续谈判。 2. 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩：欧盟对俄罗斯的下一轮制裁将扩大对俄罗斯金融部门的制裁措施。 3 ...

俄乌战事延宕三年后，双方将在土耳其伊斯坦布尔举行三年多来的首次直接谈判。这场谈判由俄罗斯总 统普京提出，原定于当地时间5月15日举行，然而迄今仍未正式启动。 目前的消息是，普京不会出席此次谈判，此前曾暗示可能会出席、目前正在中东地区访问的美国总统特 朗普也不会出席，而已经抵达土耳其的乌克兰总统泽连斯基最新表态也说，他不会出席伊斯坦布尔的谈 判。 俄罗斯方面5月14日晚公布了参与此次谈判的代表团名单，团长是总统助理梅津斯基，代表团成员包括 俄外交部副部长加卢津、俄武装力量总参谋部总局局长科斯秋科夫、俄国防部副部长福明，此外还有一 批专家参与谈判。 此前表态将在伊斯坦布尔"等待普京"的泽连斯基，于15日中午抵达土耳其首都安卡拉，随后与土耳其总 统埃尔多安举行了数小时闭门会谈。当天稍晚，泽连斯基表示自己将不出席在伊斯坦布尔举行的乌俄谈 判，乌方将派遣高级代表团参加这次谈判。据新华社消息，乌方代表团由国防部长乌梅罗夫率领，代表 团中包括军方和情报部门代表。 今年1月上台后就积极推动俄乌和谈的特朗普，此前曾暗示可能会前往伊斯坦布尔参加俄乌谈判，但在 俄方公布代表团名单后，多名白宫官员确认，特朗普不会去伊斯坦布尔。特朗普 ...

金十数据整理：俄乌冲突最新24小时局势跟踪（5月16日） 冲突情况： 2. 美方—特朗普：在普京与我会面之前，任何事情都不会发生。如果我不去，普京也不会去；鲁比奥： 我们对乌克兰谈判的预期并不高。 3. 乌方—乌克兰高级官员：乌克兰代表团将于当地时间周四在伊斯坦布尔与俄罗斯谈判代表举行会谈， 乌方代表团由12人组成，由乌克兰国防部长乌梅罗夫率领。泽连斯基不会前往。泽连斯基：如果今天在 技术层面能够达成停火协议，就可以跳过与普京的会晤。 4. 俄方—俄谈判代表团：将等候乌方，乌方应该会来参与会谈。已准备好在会谈中讨论妥协方案。我们 认为此次会谈是2022年中断的会谈的延续。普京目前没有前往伊斯坦布尔进行和平会谈的计划。未做普 京与特朗普会唔的准备。普京于周三举行了关于乌克兰问题的会议；塔斯社报道，俄罗斯与乌克兰在伊 斯坦布尔的会谈可能推迟至周五举行。 5. 土耳其外交部发言人：俄罗斯和乌克兰代表团不排除5月16日在伊斯坦布尔举行直接谈判。 6. 北约秘书长吕特：俄乌实现和平的努力将在两周内取得进展。对未来几周的潜在突破表示谨慎乐观， 这取决于俄罗斯的合作意愿，而不仅仅是依赖乌克兰的努力。 其他情况： 1. 乌克 ...

欧美敦促泽连斯基参加谈判，无论普京是否出席 金十数据5月15日讯，《华盛顿邮报》5月14日援引未具名官员的话报道称，俄罗斯和乌克兰自2022年以 来的首次直接会谈将于5月15日在伊斯坦布尔举行，此前俄罗斯总统普京发出邀请，以代替同意30天的 停火。虽然乌克兰总统泽连斯基立即同意出席，但克里姆林宫直到5月14日深夜才公布其代表团，而普 京并不在名单上。外交官员表示，由于俄罗斯拒绝透露其参与会谈的细节，泽连斯基一度准备取消乌克 兰的参与。一名外交官表示："泽连斯基根本没有看到去那里的意义。"据报道，包括美国特使维特科夫 在内的欧洲和美国官员说服泽连斯基，参加和谈将对基辅产生积极影响。他认为，如果乌克兰参加会 谈，而俄罗斯不参加，克里姆林宫似乎对和平协议不认真。如果双方都出席，就有机会达成一项有意义 的停火协议。 （基辅独立报） ...

金十数据整理：俄乌冲突最新24小时局势跟踪（5月15日） 跟踪俄乌冲突局势 +订阅 和谈情况： 1. 美国官员：特朗普不会前往土耳其参加俄乌会谈。 2. 消息人士：普京无意与泽连斯基进行一对一会晤。 3. 乌克兰官员：泽连斯基正在前往土耳其首都安卡拉的途中。 4. 美国务卿鲁比奥抵达土耳其，为可能举行的俄乌会谈做准备。 5. 德国国防部长：我对未来几天内实现乌克兰停火不抱乐观态度。 6. 俄总统新闻秘书：俄美关系改善与乌克兰危机的解决并不关联。 其他情况： 1. 波兰外长：乌克兰加入欧盟能更好保障其安全。 2. 外交官员称，欧盟同意对俄罗斯实施第17轮制裁。 3. 乌内阁批准启动与欧盟首个谈判集群所需路线图。 4. 消息人士：俄罗斯可能将汽油出口限制延长至10月底。 5. 德国财政部长：只要俄乌冲突持续，德国将支持乌克兰难民。 6. 北约正在制定计划，以满足特朗普将GDP的5%用于国防的要求。 7. 据俄罗斯《生意人报》：俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫将不参加在伊斯坦布尔举行的俄乌问题会谈。 8. 泽连斯基：正在等待俄方确认参加会谈的代表团组成；基辅已准备好进行"任何形式的谈判"以结束冲 突。 9. 普京签署关于俄罗斯代 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly stated, but the analysis implies a complex trend [2] - Fuel oil: ★☆★, indicating a somewhat bullish trend with limited operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish trend with limited operability [1] - Asphalt: Not clearly stated, but the analysis shows a positive trend [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, representing a short - term balanced state with poor operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The recent rebound of international oil prices is expected to continue, but the upside space is limited due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical negotiations [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong in the short - term, but its long - term strength is expected to be limited [2] - The asphalt market is expected to strengthen steadily due to increased supply and partial demand release [3] - The LPG market is in a low - level oscillation due to supply pressure [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices continued the corrective rebound after the unexpected downgrade of Sino - US tariffs, with the S006 contract rising 0.79% [2] - Demand is resilient, and global light distillate product inventories have hit new lows, leading to a recovery in overseas gasoline cracking and comprehensive refining profits [2] - Last week, US API gasoline and refined oil inventories decreased, while crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 4.287 million barrels [2] - The recent rebound of crude oil is expected to continue, but the upside space is not overly optimistic, with the oscillation range of Brent at $57 - 70 per barrel, WTI at $51 - 67 per barrel, and S0 at 430 - 510 yuan per barrel [2] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, LU stood out in the oil product futures, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils widened [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil faces supply - side negatives under the OPEC+ production increase, and FU cracking is under pressure to fall from high levels [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has relatively low valuation and seasonal demand increase, but its long - term strength is limited due to factors such as the cancellation of the maintenance plan of the Nigerian Dangote refinery [2] Asphalt - The price of the asphalt main contract has returned above 3,500 yuan per ton, and the near - month contract is relatively strong [3] - Domestic asphalt supply has increased due to increased production by Sinopec refineries and the resumption or transfer of production by local refineries [3] - Demand in the northern market is gradually being released, while that in the southern market is suppressed by rainfall [3] - Refinery and trader inventories have slightly increased, but the overall inventory pressure is not large, and the asphalt market is expected to strengthen steadily [3] LPG - Middle - East exports have increased, and international market procurement is cautious, with import costs expected to decline [4] - The PDH gross profit is still at a low level, and the operating rate dropped below 60% last week. The possibility of resumption of production after the tariff reduction should be noted [4] - The domestic price has declined due to concentrated imports in the first half of May and off - season pressure, and the market is in a low - level oscillation under supply pressure [4]

Group 1: Domestic Challenges - President Macron announced plans for nationwide referendums on several important issues in the coming months, although he did not specify the topics or timeline [1][2] - The potential topics for the referendums may include immigration, euthanasia, and the use of electronic devices by children, but Macron prefers to leave budget-related issues to parliamentary deliberation [1] Group 2: Prison Overcrowding - Macron stated that a series of measures will be implemented to address the severe overcrowding in French prisons, including the construction of new prisons [2] Group 3: Foreign Policy - On the Ukraine issue, Macron warned of "massive sanctions" if Russia does not accept a ceasefire, while expressing willingness to engage in transparent dialogue with President Putin, coordinated with President Zelensky and European allies [2] - Regarding the situation in Gaza, Macron condemned the Israeli government and reiterated the need for a full restoration of humanitarian aid to the region, describing the current humanitarian crisis as "unacceptable" [2]

据央视新闻5月14日消息，当地时间5月13日，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫称，俄罗斯代表团将于5月 15日抵达土耳其伊斯坦布尔。 佩斯科夫在5月13日稍早前的简报中表示，俄罗斯正在为应该于5月15日举行的俄乌土耳其会谈做准备。 佩斯科夫表示，一旦俄罗斯总统普京认为有必要，将宣布谁将代表俄方与乌方会谈。 5月11日凌晨，俄罗斯总统普京提议于15日在土耳其伊斯坦布尔重启俄乌直接谈判。 普京说："我们已准备好与乌克兰开展严肃谈判。谈判的意图是消除冲突根源，为达成具有历史意义的 持久稳定和平奠定基础。"普京再次强调，俄罗斯愿意在不设置先决条件的情况下与乌克兰进行直接谈 判。他还表示，不排除在谈判过程中可能达成新的停火协议。 图片来源：央视新闻 据央视新闻，当地时间5月13日，美国总统特朗普在沙特-美国投资论坛上表示，本周晚些时候俄乌将在 土耳其举行会谈，包括美国国务卿鲁比奥在内的美国人员也将前往。 泽连斯基称只接受与普京会谈 俄罗斯外交部5月12日发布公告称，俄土外长当天通电话讨论了俄乌谈判问题。乌克兰总统泽连斯基则 在12日表示，愿与普京进行直接和实质性的会谈，并已准备好前往土耳其。 美国务卿鲁比奥将前往土耳其参加俄 ...

Conflict Situation - Ukrainian Air Force destroyed all 10 drones launched by Russia during the night [1] - Ukrainian Armed Forces reported approximately 1,070 Russian soldiers lost in the past day, along with 2 tanks, 14 armored personnel carriers, and 62 artillery systems [1] Negotiation Situation - French President Macron indicated intentions to impose new sanctions on Russia in the coming days if the ceasefire in Ukraine is not respected, potentially affecting financial services and the oil and gas sectors [2] - Ukrainian President Zelensky stated he would only meet with Putin for peace talks, rejecting other Russian representatives, and plans to invite Trump to participate in the discussions [2] - The Kremlin did not comment on whether Putin would attend the talks, while Russian Deputy Foreign Minister mentioned that Russia and the U.S. would hold bilateral negotiations, expressing a desire for direct contact with Ukraine [2] Other Developments - The U.S. and Ukraine signed an additional execution document for a mineral resources cooperation agreement [2] - Russian President Putin confirmed that Russia continues to supply nuclear fuel to the U.S. [2] - German Chancellor Merz announced that new sanctions against Russia would cover the energy and financial markets [2]