对这个数据没什么感觉是不是，感觉中规中矩，不够刺激是不是？再来看看这些数据。 截至目前国防军工(申万)指数已经连收三根月阳线了，8月大概率收正，连续上涨四个月还要回溯到四 年前(2021年年中)。其中，光启技术股价近期创下十年新高，中航沈飞、菲利华创下历史股价最高。 这个板块弹性大、行业也不透明，所以投资起来并不容易，很多投资者看中这个板块更多的是被情绪驱 动，比如9.3阅兵、地缘冲突等。短期主题催化会推动股价上涨，但这并不持久，我们应该注意的是， 军工板块正迎来估值与业绩的双重修复。 军工最近一波大涨应该是始于6月底，6月24日，国新办新闻发布会宣布，计划于9月3日在北京天安门广 场举行纪念中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年大会后，就引发一波军工热潮。Wind数 据显示，国防军工(申万)板块涨幅达23.94%(时间区间：6.24-8.25)，在一级行业指数中排在第九位。 今天想再和大家聊一聊军工，随着93阅兵的临近，大家对军工板块的关注度很高。 (责任编辑：叶景) 首先，军工行业的行情正在转向基本面推动。因为我国军工产业绝大部分需求来自于军方，所以军费装 备费增速决定行业增速，根据3月5号公布的 ...

2025 年 08 月 22 日 策略研究团队 ——投资策略专题 韦冀星（分析师） 耿驰政（联系人） weijixing@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030002 （1）科技成长+自主可控+军工：液冷、机器人、游戏、AI 应用、军工（导弹、 无人机、卫星、深海科技），此外关注与指数共振度较高的金融科技与券商板块。 （2）受益于"PPI 边际改善预期+部分低位补涨"的顺周期品种扩散：钢铁、化 工、有色金属、建材有望受益，保险、白酒、地产或存估值修复机会。 （3）具备反内卷弹性、更"广谱"方向：本轮反内卷的范围已超越传统周期品， 光伏、锂电、工程机械、医疗、港股恒生互联网等部分制造与成长方向同样具备 中期潜力。 gengchizheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125050007 证券化率指标—判断指数牛估值空间的一种参考 本轮行情与分子端盈利表现出现一定错位。我们在 2025 年 7 月 12 日发布的报告 《剖析市场突破的核心动力》中指出，从交易行为、资金流向到制度支持，多重 因素共同构筑了市场上行的内在基础。在宏观预期相对缺位的背景下，本轮行情 与以往典型的"指数牛"存在相似特 ...

Core Viewpoint - The aerospace and defense sector is experiencing notable growth, driven by increasing complexities in the international environment and the need for advanced military capabilities [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Major indices opened higher but showed mixed performance, with significant gains in digital currency and cross-border payment sectors [1] - The aerospace ETF (159227) rose by 0.08% with a trading volume of 1.07 billion yuan, maintaining its position as the leading ETF in the military sector [1] - Key stocks in the aerospace sector, such as Hitec High-New, surged to their daily limit, with other major players like AVIC Chengfei, AVIC Shenyang, AVIC Xi'an, and Aero Engine Corporation leading the gains [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Guotai Junan Securities emphasizes the necessity of advanced aircraft and missiles for modern warfare, alongside efficient and cost-effective equipment like rockets and a reliable communication command system [1] - The aerospace ETF (159227) tracks the Guozheng Aerospace Index, which has a high military industry representation of 97.86%, focusing on the aerospace segment and covering a full range of industry leaders in fighter jets, transport aircraft, helicopters, engines, missiles, satellites, and radars [1] - From July 31, 2024, to July 31, 2025, the Guozheng Aerospace Index is projected to yield a return of 37.28%, outperforming other indices such as the CSI National Defense Index (33.06%), CSI Military Industry Index (30.4%), and Military Leaders Index (26.78%) [1]

Group 1 - The defense and military industry sector is expected to experience a new market trend driven by the upcoming military parade on September 3rd and the Army Day on August 1st, showcasing advanced military technologies such as unmanned intelligent combat systems and hypersonic weapons [4] - The display of new equipment during the parade may reinforce the upgrade logic for major manufacturers, indicating a comprehensive upgrade of the military industrial chain [4] - The military electronics industry, as a foundational element in the development and deployment of new equipment, is deeply involved in the iteration of military technologies across generations [4] Group 2 - Military electronics are anticipated to recover first in 2025, as previously analyzed, with three military electronics stocks expected to show performance growth based on semi-annual earnings forecasts [5] - This article aims to further explore relevant military electronics stocks that have not yet released their semi-annual earnings forecasts but have shown strong performance in their first-quarter reports, with some entering the earnings realization phase and others experiencing significant growth [5]

Group 1 - The report suggests an industry allocation strategy termed "4+1," focusing on technology growth, self-control, and military sectors, including liquid cooling, robotics, gaming, AI applications, and military technologies such as missiles, drones, satellites, and deep-sea technology. Additionally, it highlights the fintech and brokerage sectors due to their high correlation with indices [1] - The cyclical sectors benefiting from the expectation of marginal improvement in PPI and some low-level rebound include steel, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and building materials, with potential valuation recovery opportunities in insurance, liquor, and real estate [1] - The report identifies sectors with anti-involution elasticity and broader potential, indicating that the current anti-involution trend extends beyond traditional cyclical industries, with mid-term potential in solar energy, lithium batteries, engineering machinery, healthcare, and certain manufacturing and growth directions in Hong Kong's Hang Seng Internet [1] - Structural opportunities for overseas expansion are noted, particularly due to the easing of China-Europe trade relations, benefiting high-export categories like automobiles and wind power, as well as niche exports such as snacks [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of stable dividend stocks, gold, and optimized high-dividend assets for foundational investment [1]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a "dual-driven" structure in the market, highlighting the importance of maintaining a "bull market mindset" while adopting a cautious trading approach in a "slowly rising oscillating market" [1][11] - The report identifies two main driving forces: the growth categories supported by global technology collaboration and the cyclical recovery driven by "anti-involution" policies [1][11] - The report notes that the current market is experiencing a healthy influx of incremental capital, with margin financing balances reaching a new high since 2016, indicating positive market sentiment [1][14][15] Group 2 - The TMT sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, driven by a "fan effect" that attracts institutional capital, with significant increases in holdings in telecommunications and information technology sectors [2][20][22] - The semiconductor cycle is expected to enter an upward phase, supported by AI demand and recovery in related sectors, with a focus on the potential for structural gains in the industry [2][28][29] - The report suggests that the TMT sector will likely experience "cohesive upward movement" rather than a zero-sum game, with strong fundamentals supporting continued investment [2][24][25] Group 3 - The report discusses the "anti-involution" policies that are expected to lead to a recovery in the Producer Price Index (PPI), with signs of marginal improvement in PPI despite current low levels [3][36][39] - It highlights the structural divergence between the CRB index and PPI, indicating a potential for price recovery driven by supply-side adjustments and demand-side policy support [3][40][41] - The report anticipates that the recovery in PPI will extend to cyclical consumer assets, providing support for the overall market index [3][44][45] Group 4 - The report provides specific investment recommendations, suggesting a diversified approach that includes technology, military, cyclical recovery, and stable dividend stocks [4][59] - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors with strong growth potential, such as AI, robotics, and semiconductors, while also considering cyclical sectors that may benefit from PPI recovery [4][59] - The report encourages investors to look for structural opportunities in international trade and stable dividend-paying assets as part of a balanced investment strategy [4][59]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q2 2025 reached a record $202.3 million, a 2.7% increase from $197 million in Q2 2024, marking the seventeenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year revenue growth [10][25][30] - Gross profit was $53.7 million, representing a gross margin of 26.6%, up from 26% in the prior year [26][30] - Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $32.4 million, or 16% of revenue, up from 15.2% in the prior year [15][30] - GAAP diluted EPS was $0.82, compared to $0.52 in Q2 2024, while adjusted diluted EPS was $0.88, up from $0.83 [16][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The defense business grew by 16% in Q2, driven by a 39% increase in the missile franchise and a 46% increase in the radar business [10][11][12] - Commercial aerospace revenue declined by 10% to $78 million, primarily due to lower production rates on Boeing platforms [13][22] - The industrial business saw a 23% decline in revenue to $8 million as the company pruned non-core operations [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Military and space sector revenues increased to $117 million from $101 million in Q2 2024, driven by missile programs and military rotorcraft [21][30] - The consolidated backlog was $1.02 billion, down $50 million year-over-year, with defense backlog flat at $593 million [17][30] - Commercial aerospace backlog decreased by $47 million due to lower OEM production rates [17][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is executing its Vision 2027 strategy, aiming to increase the revenue percentage from engineered products to 25% [9][18] - Focus on consolidating operations and enhancing the engineered product portfolio, which currently contributes 23% of total revenue [9][18][25] - The company is actively pursuing acquisitions and strategic pricing initiatives to drive growth [9][60] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the defense business outlook, citing strong order activity and upcoming product launches [11][19] - The company anticipates mid-single-digit growth in Q3 and low double-digit growth in Q4, driven by defense and a recovery in commercial aerospace [19][40] - Management noted that tariffs are expected to have limited impact on revenues, with 95% of revenue generated in the U.S. [20][27] Other Important Information - The company has ceased operations in Monrovia, California, and Berryville, Arkansas, to consolidate facilities and expects to see cost savings from these actions [14][34] - Cash flow from operating activities improved significantly to $22.4 million in Q2 2025, compared to $3.5 million in Q2 2024 [36][37] - The company is in active negotiations for several meaningful opportunities, expecting a significant uptick in orders in the second half of the year [17][30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Forecast for low double-digit organic revenue growth in Q4 - Management indicated that while some ramp-up activity is expected in commercial aerospace, strong defense performance will be a key driver [43][44] Question: Improvement in cash flow and working capital - Management noted that cash flow was one of the strongest in the company's history, with a focus on improving free cash flow conversion [46][47] Question: Engineered products revenue mix and future guidance - Management expects the engineered products mix to remain steady through the end of the year, with plans to ramp up in 2026 [55][56] Question: M&A outlook and competition - Management acknowledged increased competition but remains optimistic about pursuing acquisition opportunities [59][60] Question: Update on Monrovia property sale - Management confirmed the successful sale of the Berryville facility and plans to market the Monrovia property again [61][62]

Group 1 - The company, Tongda Co., Ltd. (002560.SZ), stated on the interactive platform that it currently has no products used in the missile sector [1]

Group 1 - The military industry sector continues to strengthen, with the aerospace ETF (159277) rising by 2.44% and a trading volume of 141 million yuan, leading its category [1] - Key stocks such as Great Wall Military Industry and Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group have shown significant gains, with Great Wall Military Industry hitting the daily limit and Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group rising over 8% [1] - The ongoing escalation of geopolitical conflicts and the continuous increase in global military spending highlight the technological advantages of Chinese military enterprises in areas like drones, fighter jets, and missiles, making the aerospace sector a core beneficiary [1] Group 2 - The aerospace ETF (159277) closely tracks the National Aerospace Index, focusing on the core track of China's military industry and strategically positioning itself in cutting-edge aerospace technologies [1] - The index covers critical industry chain segments such as aviation equipment, aerospace equipment, satellite navigation, and new materials, aligning with national defense modernization and high-end equipment upgrade strategies [1] - The component stocks are selected from leading enterprises in the military sector, encompassing emerging fields like large aircraft manufacturing, low-altitude economy, and commercial aerospace, capturing the rapid development of national defense technology [1] Group 3 - According to Zhongyou Securities, by 2025, the military industry is expected to see a turning point in orders as the "Centenary of the Army Building" goal enters its second half, with new technologies aimed at improving equipment performance or reducing costs [1] - New products representing new domains and new types of combat forces, along with military trade and military technology transformation, are anticipated to create new market directions with greater elasticity [1] - The recommendation is to focus on the aerospace main line as the military industry evolves [1]

Core Viewpoint - Boeing's St. Louis fighter jet assembly plant workers have voted against the company's latest labor contract proposal, leading to a strike involving approximately 3,200 workers starting at midnight on August 4 [3]. Group 1: Labor Relations - The International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers announced the rejection of Boeing's final proposal, which included salary increases and additional vacation time [3]. - The union members are primarily responsible for manufacturing Boeing's fighter jets, missiles, and ammunition, as well as producing components for Boeing's commercial aircraft [4].