以史为鉴看快递"反内卷"：快递为何后来居上？ 20250804 摘要 快递行业反内卷的核心在于稳就业和保就业，该行业吸纳大量劳动力， 但劳动合同签署率和五险一金缴纳率较低，反内卷有助于提升就业质量。 快递行业单价持续下跌，部分地区派费低于成本线，导致网点亏损和快 递员薪酬拖欠。反内卷旨在提升加盟网点利润和快递员薪资待遇，而非 仅为总部利益。 消费者对快递价格小幅上涨接受度较高。测算显示，即使华南部分省份 涨价三四毛钱，总体费用率上涨不到一个百分点，下游接纳度较高。 监管部门在快递行业反内卷中发挥重要作用。邮政管理局有能力遏制恶 性竞争，通过调控政策引导行业良性发展，保障快递员合法权益。 2021 年和 2025 年快递行业均面临非理性竞争导致的产业链盈利恶化、 网点亏损等问题，监管部门均采取干预措施引导良性竞争。 2021 年第四季度快递行业单价上涨 0.3 元，上市公司单票净利增加 0.1 元，小哥和网点占 0.2 元。涨价持续 4 个月，并维持了 16 个月。 预计 2025 年这轮反内卷将持续至少四个月以上，部分地区涨价幅度可 能达到 0.3 元。若义乌和广州等主要产量区涨价 0.4 元，全国范围内可 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the express delivery industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][4]. Core Insights - The National Postal Administration held a meeting on July 29, 2025, to discuss the promotion of high-quality development in the express delivery industry and to address issues related to "involution" competition [4]. - In the first half of 2025, the express delivery business volume grew by 19.3% year-on-year, but the industry average price fell more than expected, leading to a decline in stock prices for major companies [4]. - The report anticipates a potential price stabilization and recovery in the express delivery sector due to favorable policies, which could lead to significant valuation recovery for companies in the industry [4]. Summary by Sections Price Elasticity of Profits - The report provides scenarios for profit elasticity based on potential price increases in August 2025, with different assumptions for price hikes in various regions [4]. - Under a neutral scenario, if prices increase by 0.2 yuan in key areas, net profits for major companies are projected to be: Zhongtong 10.3 billion, Yuantong 4.5 billion, Yunda 2.0 billion, and Shentong 1.9 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 1.4%, 12.6%, 5.2%, and 86.9% respectively [4]. - In an optimistic scenario, with a nationwide price increase, net profits could rise to: Zhongtong 11.4 billion, Yuantong 5.4 billion, Yunda 2.7 billion, and Shentong 2.7 billion, with growth rates of 12.0%, 34.4%, 43.4%, and 157.5% respectively [4]. Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the express delivery sector, with projected net profits and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [7]. - For example, Zhongtong Express is projected to have a net profit of 95.4 billion yuan in 2025 with a PE ratio of 12, while Yuantong Express is expected to have a net profit of 20.05 billion yuan with a PE of 11 [7].

华源证券表示，7-8月是快递行业传统淡季，或可看到在监管号召下，局部价格较低城市、加盟商亏损 严重区域响应提价，后续在全国范围或者旺季或有更大范围提价。中长期来看，若后续有持续的监管政 策推出，行业或保持良性竞争，从价格战向价值战转变，长期改善快递公司业绩。国信证券表示，未来 在"反内卷"和高质量发展政策指导下，快递行业的无序竞争有望实现边际好转，从而促使监管、竞争、 盈利和质量达成新的平衡，今年四季度旺季行业的价格和盈利表现仍然值得期待。 智通财经APP获悉，中通快递-W(02057)涨超10%，截至发稿，涨10.6%，报168.1港元，成交额10.61亿 港元。 消息面上，7月29日，国家邮政局召开快递企业座谈会，就依法依规治理行业"内卷式"竞争，强化农村 地区领取快件违规收费等突出问题整治，促进行业高质量发展进行座谈交流。据现代物流报，7月17日 义乌邮管局已率先行动，在1.1元底价基础上再涨0.1元。中通随即响应，宣布广东地区价格提升0.1元， 缓解派件网点压力。7月24日，广东邮管局组织会议要求8月1日起提价，预计幅度0.2-0.3元。 ...

中通快递-W(02057)涨超10%，截至发稿，涨10.6%，报168.1港元，成交额10.61亿港元。 消息面上，7月29日，国家邮政局召开快递企业座谈会，就依法依规治理行业"内卷式"竞争，强化农村 地区领取快件违规收费等突出问题整治，促进行业高质量发展进行座谈交流。据现代物流报，7月17日 义乌邮管局已率先行动，在1.1元底价基础上再涨0.1元。中通随即响应，宣布广东地区价格提升0.1元， 缓解派件网点压力。7月24日，广东邮管局组织会议要求8月1日起提价，预计幅度0.2-0.3元。 华源证券表示，7-8月是快递行业传统淡季，或可看到在监管号召下，局部价格较低城市、加盟商亏损 严重区域响应提价，后续在全国范围或者旺季或有更大范围提价。中长期来看，若后续有持续的监管政 策推出，行业或保持良性竞争，从价格战向价值战转变，长期改善快递公司业绩。国信证券表示，未来 在"反内卷"和高质量发展政策指导下，快递行业的无序竞争有望实现边际好转，从而促使监管、竞争、 盈利和质量达成新的平衡，今年四季度旺季行业的价格和盈利表现仍然值得期待。 ...

快递行业"反内卷"正在重塑行业生态。 多家A股上市快递公司的数据显示，今年上半年，快递单票月度平均价格持续下滑。韵达股份（002120.SZ）、申通快递（002468.SZ）等加盟制快递企业的 票均价格已跌破2元大关。 7月30日早盘，A股快递板块应声上涨，申通快递盘中一度涨停，截至当日收盘上涨8.47%。圆通速递、韵达股份盘中一度涨超7%，但截至收盘有所回落。 增量不增收现象显著 我国自2014年启动实施"快递下乡"工程以来，农村寄递物流体系历经了从无到有，从初步建立到日渐完善的过程。 2024年快递进村情况普查数据显示，截至目前，全国累计建设33.78万个"一点多能、一站多用"的村级寄递物流综合服务站，农村寄递"最后一公里"服务实 现有效拓展。 不过，农村地区快递服务网络亟待完善、服务能力待提升、运行质效有不足等问题，也成为当前制约农村寄递物流行业发展的短板。因此，要坚持综合施 策，加强设施、运力、信息、资本、技术等资源融合，构建便捷高效的农村快递服务新模式。 随着快递服务网络加速向村级下沉，基层配送矛盾正逐渐显现。21世纪经济报道记者调查发现，在部分农村地区，快递末端违规收费问题依然突出。记者查 阅黑猫 ...

本文源自：智通财经网 消息面上，据国家邮政局消息，7月29日，国家邮政局召开快递企业座谈会，就依法依规治理行业"内卷 式"竞争，强化农村地区领取快件违规收费等突出问题整治，促进行业高质量发展进行座谈交流。国信 证券认为，未来在"反内卷"和高质量发展政策指导下，快递行业的无序竞争有望实现边际好转，从而促 使监管、竞争、盈利和质量达成新的平衡，今年四季度旺季行业的价格和盈利表现仍然值得期待。 智通财经获悉，中通快递-W(02057)涨近4%，截至发稿，涨3.78%，报161.9港元，成交额1.07亿港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the express delivery industry [1] Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing a trend of "anti-involution," leading to a revaluation of its value [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory actions in stabilizing the industry and improving profitability [3] - Short-term price improvements are expected, with potential for further increases during peak seasons [3] Summary by Sections 1. Review of 2021's "Anti-Involution" - In 2021, the express delivery industry saw a significant policy push to protect courier rights, leading to price increases and improved profitability [3][19] - The average price per ticket for the "Tongda" system increased by approximately 0.6 yuan from the low point in August 2021 to January 2022 [3] - By Q4 2021, YTO Express reported a net profit of 1.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 202% [3] 2. Current Industry Dynamics - After 2023, the industry has re-entered a phase of price competition due to increased capacity and market share strategies, leading to profitability nearing historical lows [3][39] - The National Postal Administration has clearly opposed "involution-style" competition, indicating a regulatory environment similar to that of 2021 [3][65] - The report suggests monitoring regulatory developments in key production areas like Yiwu and Guangdong for potential price adjustments [3] 3. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - Short-term price improvements are anticipated, particularly in traditionally low-price cities, with potential for broader price increases in peak seasons [3][69] - The report forecasts a shift from price wars to value competition, which could enhance long-term profitability for leading express companies [3][69] - Investment recommendations include focusing on A-shares such as Shentong Express, YTO Express, and Yunda Express, as well as H-shares like Jitu Express and ZTO Express [3] 4. Financial Performance Metrics - In Q1 2025, the net profit per ticket for major companies like Zhongtong, YTO, Yunda, and Shentong fell close to or below historical lows [50] - The report highlights significant cash flow pressures, with some companies experiencing cash flow performance worse than the bottom of 2021 [50] - The report provides elasticity calculations indicating that price increases could significantly enhance profitability for express companies [70]

Group 1: Acquisition Overview - Shentong Express plans to acquire 100% equity of Zhejiang Daniao Logistics for RMB 362.05 million [1] - The acquisition aims to enhance the company's core competitiveness and long-term sustainable development [1][2] Group 2: Daniao Logistics Business and Performance - Daniao Logistics operates in approximately 300 cities with an average daily volume exceeding 4 million orders [2][3] - The company reported a profit of approximately RMB 20 million in 2024, but incurred losses in the first four months of 2025 due to initial growth phase and increased competition [4][5] Group 3: Strategic Rationale for Acquisition - The acquisition responds to policy directives and aims to penetrate high-end markets, enhancing the product matrix [5][6] - It is expected to optimize costs and release synergistic value, improving overall profitability [5][6] Group 4: Transaction Terms and Investor Protection - The transaction includes clauses for loss compensation during the transition period and a phased payment mechanism to protect shareholder interests [6] - The acquisition does not constitute a major asset restructuring as per regulations, ensuring fair valuation [6] Group 5: Industry Outlook and Competitive Strategy - The company supports the postal authority's stance against "involution" in the industry, focusing on quality over quantity [7][8] - The strategic shift aims to transition from price competition to value competition, with expectations of rational price recovery in peak seasons [8]

快递行业目前的价格竞争状况如何？ 重视快递行业反内卷 20250721 在过去的 2025 年第二季度，快递行业仍处于激烈的价格竞争状态，导致整体 板块个股业绩预期较低，估值水平也较低。根据调研数据，今年（2025 年） 第一季度，中通、圆通、韵达和申通的单票收入分别同比下降了 8%、6%、10%和 6%。在义乌地区，今年（2025 年）3 月以来价格战尤为 激烈，5 月份快递价格一度跌破 1 元，为历史最低水平。在华南地区，如广州 和潮汕，整个 2025 年的快递价格也长期处于极低水平。 摘要 快递行业反内卷政策有哪些具体落实情况？ 2025 年以来，申通、圆通等快递公司单票收入同比下降，义乌地区价 格战激烈，5 月价格跌破 1 元，华南地区价格也长期处于极低水平，表 明行业竞争加剧。 国家邮政局和市场监管总局于 2025 年 7 月采取行动，加强行业监管， 反对内卷式竞争，顺丰等民营快递龙头企业也参与了相关会议，预示着 监管层面开始推动反内卷政策。 义乌和华南地区出现价格修复迹象，义乌快递底价从 1 元上涨至 1.1 元， 华南地区品牌之间进行价格谈判，淡季价格修复预示旺季价格可能易涨 难跌。 2021 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is experiencing a price competition relief in 2025, with a projected price drop of approximately 7% in the first half of the year, expected to narrow to 6% in the second half, particularly in regions like Yiwu and Chaoshan [1][13] - The industry is projected to handle over 205 billion parcels in 2025, with a growth rate of about 17.2% [2][13] Core Points and Arguments - **Government Initiatives**: The government is actively promoting measures to combat internal competition (反内卷), including the trial of number protection services by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to reduce data monopolies by e-commerce platforms [3][11] - **Digital Management**: Express companies are encouraged to optimize delivery costs through digital management and to stabilize their workforce while avoiding drastic price fluctuations [1][9] - **Focus on Service Quality**: The core of combating internal competition lies in breaking the data monopoly of e-commerce platforms, enhancing service quality through data circulation, and leveraging policy guidance [1][10] - **High-Quality Development**: Companies should delay reducing delivery fees to ensure the earnings of franchisees and couriers, while exploring international markets and factory logistics [9][12] - **Technological Advancements**: The use of unmanned vehicles and smart delivery stations is emphasized to reduce costs and improve efficiency [17][19] Important but Overlooked Content - **Historical Context**: Previous measures, such as the 2021 price increase discussions by the State Post Bureau, have shown that regulatory actions can stabilize prices, and this year’s approach is expected to be more rational and data-driven [6][7] - **Market Dynamics**: The express delivery market is shifting towards enhancing service quality and exploring new markets rather than engaging in fierce price wars [15][31] - **Future Projections**: The industry is expected to see a growth rate of 8% to 10% by 2026, indicating a balance between supply and demand, which will reduce the need for excessive capital expenditure [14][20] - **Challenges in International Expansion**: Companies face challenges such as building cross-border logistics networks and adapting to local markets when expanding internationally [28][30] Conclusion - The express delivery industry is transitioning towards a model focused on high-quality service and technological innovation, moving away from price wars. The government's supportive policies and the industry's adaptation to new technologies are crucial for sustainable growth and efficiency improvements in the coming years [19][32]