Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The FOMC is positioned to wait for more clarity on inflation and economic activity, with a careful approach to adjusting monetary policy due to elevated uncertainty [2][3] - Most participants believe that some reductions in the fed funds rate would likely be appropriate this year, with a median forecast of two cuts in 2025 [3][4] - The Fed staff's economic forecast indicates higher GDP growth through 2027 compared to previous forecasts, primarily due to trade policy announcements [4][8] Summary by Sections FOMC Meeting Minutes - Participants generally agreed on a wait-and-see approach regarding inflation and economic activity, noting that uncertainty had decreased since the May meeting [2] - A few participants suggested that tariffs might only lead to a one-time price increase, while most noted the risk of persistent inflation effects [4] Economic Forecasts - The Fed staff's forecast includes higher GDP growth through 2027 and a lower inflation projection than in May, with expectations for inflation to return to the 2% target by 2027 [8] - The staff anticipates that tariff increases will raise inflation this year and provide a small boost in 2026 [8] Communication Strategy - A preliminary discussion was held regarding potential changes to the Summary of Economic Projections and the addition of alternative scenarios to the FOMC's communications strategy [9]

Market Trend & Prediction - The analysis suggests that all Bitcoin pairs are likely to reach range lows, potentially driven by liquidity conditions and retail consumer behavior [4][6][10] - The analyst anticipates a potential 20% drop in Bitcoin valuations for altcoins [13][17] - The report notes a possible short-term bounce in the summer, but the eventual outcome is expected to be the range lows [22][23] - The analysis draws parallels to historical data, suggesting a potential low in late October or early November [9][10] Macroeconomic Factors - The analyst suggests that a low unemployment rate of 41% might delay interest rate cuts, potentially impacting higher-risk assets [7][21] - The report indicates a shift in the probability of rate cuts, with a reduced chance of a cut in July (from 25% to 5%) and an increased chance of no cut in September (from 5% to 333%) [7] Altcoin Performance - The analysis highlights that while altcoins may have performed better in USD valuations, they have underperformed against Bitcoin [14][15] - The report questions the value of altcoin USD gains if they continue to bleed against Bitcoin [16] Technical Analysis - The analyst points out that every rally has met with a lower high, indicating a potential breakdown [17] - The analysis references specific Bitcoin pair valuations, noting a move from 031% to a potential 025% [18] - The report includes USDC in the analysis, showing a valuation of 029% and suggesting further downside [19]

The numbers are expected to show some impact of trade and chaos in the fiscal space with just 106,000 as the forecast consensus, 95,000 for the whisper number. So Wall Street leaning towards pessimism. Unemployment 4.3%.This would be a case of rounding. When we look out to three digits because barely rounded down to four to last month and it could go as high as four four depending on where we end up. Jobless claims are out today as well, 241,000.That's about where we are right now. So if there's a big chang ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The global economic outlook remains uncertain due to ongoing US tariffs and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran and its nuclear ambitions [3][4][24] - US tariffs are expected to have a significant impact on both US and global growth, with a projected decline in global GDP from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025 [8][22] - The average effective tariff rate for US consumers has reached 15.8%, the highest since 1936, indicating a substantial increase in trade costs [9][46] Summary by Sections Key Forecasts - Global GDP growth is forecasted to slow from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025 and further to 2.3% in 2026 [22] - Developed economies are expected to grow at a slower pace compared to emerging markets, with the US GDP growth projected at 1.8% for 2025 [22] Economic Environment - The report highlights the volatility in global trade data due to frontloading ahead of US tariffs, which has led to a surge in imports followed by a sharp decline [12][52] - US tariffs are anticipated to slow trade growth, with global trade growth projected at just 1.8% in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026 [12][71] Tariff Implications - US tariffs are described as a multi-purpose tool that will likely lead to higher inflation and lower growth in the US, with ongoing uncertainty regarding future tariff negotiations [11][50] - The report notes that countries with lower exposure to US tariffs may benefit, particularly those positioned to supply components currently sourced from mainland China [13][74] Consumer Spending and Inflation - US consumer spending is expected to slow due to weaker employment and slower real wage growth, while inflation pressures may persist despite a general slowdown in growth [15][16] - The report anticipates sticky core inflation in the US, influenced by supply shocks from tariffs and lower immigration [16] Central Bank Actions - The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are expected to pause rate changes during the summer, amidst ongoing global economic uncertainty [17][31] - Divergences in central bank policies are noted, with the Fed likely to cut rates modestly by the end of 2026 [17] Fiscal Policy and Trade Negotiations - Ongoing US fiscal negotiations are highlighted as critical, with potential implications for economic growth depending on the outcomes [18][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring trade negotiations and their impact on global economic dynamics [20][33]

RT apewood (@apewoodx)2020 - 2021:- fiscal printer brrr- monetary policy brrreasy fiscal + easy monetary policy = perfect storm2022 - 2024:- fiscal printer brrr- monetary policy tight (fed hiking, flipped in 2022 and game over bubble valuations)- we had glimpse into fed in cutting mode in late 2024 but they quickly flipped back hawkish early 2025easy fiscal + tight monetary policy = not the best conditionsEarly 2025:- fiscal printer - people believed the govt was going to balance the budget (tighter fiscal) ...

I'm here because if we're talking about this, you might as well tell us what he said. I'm going to tell you what he said. Exactly.Really interesting comments. By the way, um first on what he says about policy and then the why on the policy. He sees a possible first cut in September.He maintains his ALEC for two cuts this year, but he's adjustable on that. He says the tariff impact could be delayed or it could be less than expected and provides interesting reasons why both could be true. First, he says compa ...

Market Outlook - The market is on pace to open at records, with a generally bullish outlook on stocks [1] - Diversification is key, with a preference for owning growthier value and "garbier" growth stocks, focusing on dividend growers rather than just payers [2] - The US market is favored, with an overweight position, but exposure to developed international and emerging markets is maintained [2] - Equities are viewed favorably, with a suggestion to overweight equities and have some exposure to fixed income for traditional diversification [3] Sector Focus - Consumer discretionary is a sector of interest, highlighted by Nike's earnings [4] - Despite Nike beating low earnings expectations, issues like a billion-dollar tariff expense and supply chain problems are flagged, with sales expected to be lower [5] - The American consumer is seen as remarkably resilient due to strong job market, supporting the consumer discretionary sector [6] Monetary Policy & Risk - Concerns about a "shadow Fed president" are considered less significant, as diverse opinions already exist within the Federal Reserve [7] - The Federal Reserve's independence is crucial, and potential commentary from other channels should be viewed in light of Jerome Powell's stance [8] - Expectation of rate cuts, potentially starting in September and with another 100 basis points (1%) removed by the end of the year from the monetary policy elevation since March 2022 [8][9]

Economic Data & Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve (Fed) acknowledges a slight degradation in the scope of economic surveys but expresses concern about the direction of travel regarding the accuracy and reliability of US economic measurement [4] - The Fed emphasizes the importance of accurate economic data for itself, Congress, and businesses to understand the state of the economy, including growth levels [4][5][6] - The Fed notes that current interest rates are at higher levels, providing significantly more room for cuts compared to periods of very low interest rates [15] Inflation & Tariffs - Retailers anticipate tariff-related inflation to become more apparent in future data, as current sales reflect inventory from previous months [8][9] - There is uncertainty regarding how much of the tariff impact will be passed on to consumers; the effect could be lower or higher than expected [10] - Companies may increase prices on non-tariffed goods to compensate for losses incurred due to tariffs on price-elastic goods [11][12] - The Fed acknowledges the possibility of companies increasing prices on necessities, even if not subject to tariffs, to offset losses from tariffed goods, as seen in past tariff episodes [12][13] Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) - Congress is considering a proposal to cut $56 million from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), raising concerns about the agency's ability to collect accurate data and provide reliable indicators [3]

The Federal Reserve remains squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. Despite elevated uncertainty, the economy is in a solid position. The unemployment rate remains low and the labor market is at or near maximum employment.Inflation has come down a great deal but has been running somewhat above our 2% longer run objective. We are attentive to the risks on both sides of our dual mandate. I will review the current econ ...

Congressman, welcome back to the program, sir. Always good to hear from you. I'm going to start with a slightly provocative question.I'm paraphrasing here. Do you plan to work for this very term hotheaded person a little bit later this morning. Well, Jonathan, it's great to be with you.We look forward to having Chair Powell before the committee this morning. And I think he'll face questions on his outlook for inflation and therefore what his views are about rate cuts coming forward. I think that's the impor ...