Market Trends & Key Themes - AI remains the most important theme in the market, with upcoming "Garlic" (OpenAI) and "Avocado" (Meta) LLM models expected around Q1, representing a major event for the industry [1][2] - Monetary policy globally will be less dovish in the coming year compared to the current year, although a monetary tailwind for the market and economy is still expected [5][6] - The Santa Claus rally is expected to kick off, with the final trading days of the year typically being seasonally strong [6] Economic Factors & Potential Risks - Large tax refunds are anticipated, potentially providing a tailwind for consumer activity [3] - Incremental Fed stimulus is expected in Q1, including a potential rate cut and ongoing asset purchases of T-bills [4] - Employment is identified as a major wild card, with companies potentially maintaining margins by limiting headcount additions, and AI possibly contributing marginally [11] - Affordability challenges are expected to ease, with housing likely to exert disinflationary pressure [10] - The narrative is expected to shift towards employment concerns, with a potential rise in the unemployment rate and increased job stress in more vulnerable sectors of the economy [12] Sector-Specific Observations - Micron's performance significantly boosted the tech sector, reversing earlier negative trends from Broadcom and Oracle earnings reports [7] - The positive momentum in the tech sector, driven by Micron, is likely to continue in the near term, especially with a relatively light calendar of major events and a seasonally favorable period [8]

Economic Outlook - New York Fed President John Williams expressed optimism about the economy, stating that some data is "pretty encouraging" and there is no sign of a sharp deterioration in jobs data [1] - He projected US GDP growth for this year to be between 1.5% and 1.75%, with expectations of growth picking up next year [1] Consumer Sentiment and Housing Market - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for December was unexpectedly revised downward by -0.4 to 52.9, falling short of expectations [2] - Existing home sales in the US for November rose by +0.5% month-over-month to a 9-month high of 4.13 million, although this was below the expected 4.15 million [2][4] Stock Market Performance - Stock indexes showed positive movement, with the S&P 500 up by +0.67%, the Dow Jones up by +0.56%, and the Nasdaq 100 up by +0.94% [6] - A rally in cloud infrastructure stocks, particularly Oracle which rose by more than 7%, contributed to improved market sentiment [5][13] Bond Market Dynamics - Higher bond yields are limiting stock gains, with the 10-year T-note yield increasing by +2 basis points to 4.14% [3] - The yield curve has steepened since the last FOMC meeting, impacting T-note prices negatively due to increased demand for short-term government debt [10] International Markets - Overseas stock markets also experienced gains, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up by +0.40%, China's Shanghai Composite up by +0.36%, and Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 up by +1.03% [8] Company-Specific Movements - Carnival Corp reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 34 cents, exceeding consensus expectations of 24 cents, leading to a stock increase of more than +9% [16] - Whitefiber Inc saw a stock increase of more than +7% following a significant co-location agreement, representing around $865 million in contracted revenue [17] - Nike's stock fell by more than -8% after forecasting a decline in Q3 revenue and gross margins due to ongoing weakness in China [19] - Lamb Weston Holdings forecasted full-year net sales below consensus, leading to a stock decline of more than -23% [18]

The three candidates interviewed by President Donald Trump so far to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell next May share a desire to cut interest rates, but diverge on other aspects of monetary policy and come from different backgrounds. ...

Economic Outlook - The consensus in the market suggests that next year will see robust economic growth, supported by fiscal and monetary tailwinds, as well as deregulation [7] - Clarity around trade policy and a government focused on economic performance ahead of midterm elections may reduce the need for significant Federal Reserve rate cuts [7] Inflation Trends - Current inflation data is viewed with skepticism, and there is an expectation of a higher inflation number in the next report due in mid-January [4] - Despite concerns, there is a belief that the pace of inflation is moderating, indicating a disinflationary trend [4] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates will depend on economic growth and inflation rates, with modest rate cuts possible if labor market softness is observed [8] - The Fed is unlikely to make drastic changes unless there is significant evidence of economic downturns, particularly in small businesses, which have not been hiring [8][9] Small Business Impact - Small businesses, which account for 46% of employment in the U.S., are a key area to monitor for hiring trends and overall economic health [9] - The NFIB small business sentiment survey will be an important indicator; stabilization and improvement in hiring from small companies could signal a bullish market outlook [10]

Bitcoin (BTC) held steady near $88,000 on Thursday after a volatile session that saw prices briefly surge toward $90,000, fueled by optimism that U.S. President Donald Trump’s incoming Federal Reserve Chair will push for steep rate cuts. Trump said he plans to appoint a new Fed Chair who believes in lowering interest rates “by a lot.” “I’ll soon announce our next chairman of the Federal Reserve, someone who believes in lower interest rates by a lot,” Trump said in a speech Wednesday. “Early in the new yea ...

Economic Data Summary - U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by +64K in November after a decline of -105K in October, indicating a slight recovery in job growth [1] - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest in four years, surpassing expectations of 4.5% [1] - Average hourly earnings in the U.S. rose by +0.1% month-over-month and +3.5% year-over-year, both below expectations [1] - U.S. retail sales remained unchanged month-over-month in October, while core retail sales grew by +0.4% month-over-month, exceeding expectations [1] Market Performance - Wall Street's major indexes closed mixed, with energy stocks declining due to a more than -3% drop in WTI crude prices [2] - Notable losers included Phillips 66, which fell over -6%, and Humana, which also dropped over -6% after disappointing EPS guidance [2] - On the positive side, Comcast gained over +5% following speculation of activist investor involvement [2] Oil Market Developments - Oil prices increased by more than +2% after President Trump ordered a blockade of sanctioned tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, raising concerns about supply disruptions [3] Futures and Investor Sentiment - December S&P 500 E-Mini futures rose by +0.27% as investors reacted to the latest U.S. jobs data and awaited comments from Federal Reserve officials [4] - Investors are focused on the upcoming U.S. consumer inflation report for November, with expectations of core and headline inflation at +3.0% and +3.1% year-over-year, respectively [5] Federal Reserve Insights - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized the need to address inflation, suggesting that elevated price pressures may persist into the next year [6] - U.S. rate futures indicate an 80.1% probability of no rate change at the January FOMC meeting [7] Earnings Reports - Key earnings reports are anticipated from companies such as Micron Technology, General Mills, and Jabil Circuit [8] International Market Updates - The Euro Stoxx 50 Index rose by +0.20%, driven by gains in mining and energy stocks [10] - U.K. annual inflation rate eased to +3.2% in November, below expectations, while Eurozone inflation was revised lower to +2.1% [11] Japan's Economic Indicators - Japan's exports rose by +6.1% year-over-year in November, exceeding expectations, while core machinery orders surged by +7.0% month-over-month [16]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. stock index futures showed a slight increase as investors anticipated upcoming economic data to assess monetary policy direction and were attentive to geopolitical tensions in Venezuela, which contributed to rising oil prices [1] Group 1: Economic Data and Monetary Policy - Investors are awaiting more economic data to gauge the future path of monetary policy [1] - The anticipation of economic indicators is influencing market sentiment and stock index futures [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Prices - Geopolitical tensions in Venezuela have led to an increase in oil prices [1] - The rise in oil prices is a significant factor that investors are monitoring alongside economic data [1]

Market Performance - Hong Kong stocks rebounded from a three-week low, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.9% to 25,468.78, while the Hang Seng Tech Index gained 1% [1] - The CSI 300 Index on the mainland climbed 1.8%, and the Shanghai Composite Index added 1.2% [1] Company Movements - China Life Insurance increased by 4.3% to HK$28.56, and Li Ning also rose by 4.3% to HK$19.07 [3] - Pop Mart International Group saw a gain of 3.4% to HK$195.70 [3] - ENN Energy declined by 2.4% to HK$69.90, and Techtronic Industries retreated by 2% to HK$89.80 [3] Economic Indicators - The US added 64,000 jobs in November, improving from a loss of 105,000 jobs in the previous month, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.56% from 4.44% in September [5] - Analysts suggest that the US jobs market is cooling but on track for a soft landing, indicating limited urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in January [5] - Investors are looking forward to the November US inflation data, with core consumer prices expected to rise by 2.9% year-on-year, down from a 3.02% increase in September [6]

Your first guest today might agree with that. He's been saying on this show for a while to diversify beyond just big tech. So, let's see what he has to say about that.What to buy, what to own next year. Joe Tennuse is chief investment strategist at Northern Trust and he joins us now. I know that's not you.You're not Bank of America, but >> but I'm not surprised. >> Okay. Are you seeing similar types of data at Northern Trust.>> We are. I think there's genuinely a lot of excitement about the opportunity ahea ...

Economic Indicators - The Empire State manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to -3.9 in December, weaker than the expected 10.0 [3] - Economists forecast that Nonfarm Payrolls for November will be 51K, with October payroll data expected to show substantial losses in government jobs [6] - U.S. Average Hourly Earnings for November are expected to rise by +0.3% month-over-month and +3.6% year-over-year, compared to +0.2% month-over-month and +3.8% year-over-year in September [8] - Retail sales for October are anticipated to rise by +0.1% month-over-month, while core retail sales are expected to increase by +0.2% month-over-month [9] - The December S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 52.0, and the S&P Global Services PMI is expected to be 54.0 [10] Stock Market Movements - Wall Street's main stock indexes ended in the red, with ServiceNow (NOW) plunging over -11% after news of a potential acquisition for $7 billion [4] - Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks fell as Bitcoin's price dropped more than -4%, with Riot Platforms (RIOT) down over -10% and Strategy (MSTR) down more than -8% [4] - iRobot (IRBT) plummeted over -72% after filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection [4] - KLA Corp. (KLAC) rose more than +2% after being upgraded to Buy from Hold with a price target of $1,500 [4] Central Bank Insights - Fed Governor Stephen Miran indicated that the central bank's policy stance is overly restrictive for the economy, citing a benign inflation outlook [2] - New York Fed President John Williams stated that monetary policy is well-positioned for next year following a recent rate cut [2] - Boston Fed President Susan Collins supported the recent rate cut, noting that the balance of risks had shifted [2] European Market Developments - The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -0.14%, with defense stocks slipping due to progress in Ukraine peace talks [11] - Eurozone business activity growth slowed more than anticipated in December, with manufacturing contraction deepening [11] - The German December ZEW Economic Sentiment Index came in at 45.8, stronger than expectations of 38.4 [13] Asian Market Trends - China's Shanghai Composite Index closed down -1.11%, with economic indicators showing weakened momentum in November [15] - Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply lower, with financial and energy stocks leading the declines [16] - The Japanese December au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) stood at 49.7, stronger than expectations of 49.0 [18]