Group 1 - Kratos Defense & Security Solutions has established a factory to produce 24 XQ-58A Valkyrie combat drones, aiming to secure contracts with the U.S. Marine Corps and Airbus [1] - The U.S. has reclassified drones to fighter jet status, prompting Cathie Wood's ARK Invest to adjust their defense stock holdings [2] - The defense and aerospace sector is experiencing a surge, with notable increases in stock prices for companies like Kratos and Rocket Lab [4] Group 2 - Major indexes are reaching new highs, indicating a potential bullish phase in the market rally, with Tesla and Kratos among the stocks showing buy signals [4] - Increased defense spending targets by NATO and heightened military activities in the Middle East are contributing to the rise in defense stocks [4] - The market is witnessing a focus on drone technology, with expectations for significant advancements and investments in hypersonic capabilities [4]

BREAKING: Inflation Data Cements Rate Cut Expectations Tesla (TSLA) has rallied nearly 30% this month ahead of global third-quarter vehicle deliveries next month, with analysts handing the EV giant a slew of price-target hikes in recent weeks. On Friday, a Tesla stock super bull said he sees 40% upside based almost entirely on the company's robotaxi rollout. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, a long-time Tesla bull, on… Related news PCE Inflation Data In Line, Bolsters Fed Rate Cut Outlook (Live Coverage) ...

Economic Data Impact - A surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report has led to a significant rise in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), reaching a three-week high, while Bitcoin has fallen below $111,000 [1] - Initial jobless claims decreased by 14,000 to 218,000, marking a two-month low, and Q2 GDP growth was revised upward to 3.8% from 3.3% [1] Federal Reserve Rate Cut Odds - Fresh economic data has reduced the likelihood of rapid Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the odds of an October rate cut decreasing from 92% to 85.5% [2] - Fed Governor Miran advocated for faster easing, but Chairman Powell urged caution in response to the economic data [2] Bitcoin Market Dynamics - Bitcoin is showing signs of exhaustion, with ETF inflows slowing sharply around the FOMC meeting, leading to a fragile balance in market flows [2] - The cost basis for short-term holders is now a key support level at $111,000, which must hold to prevent further declines [3] - Bitcoin has slipped below the 0.95 Cost Basis Quantile, indicating potential profit-taking zones, with risks of drifting toward lower support levels around $105,000 to $90,000 [3] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical uncertainty, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and ongoing conflicts in Gaza, has contributed to market weakness and a shift towards safe-haven assets like gold [4] Analyst Perspectives - Analysts remain confident that the Bitcoin bull market is not over, despite current struggles below $112,000 [5] - The 21-week EMA is climbing, and Bitcoin needs to stay above this level to reclaim bullish territory and attempt new highs [5] - An inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is forming, indicating potential for a higher low in Bitcoin's trading range [6]

Core Insights - The discussion revolves around investment regrets, particularly focusing on stocks that were sold prematurely without solid reasoning, highlighting the importance of having a structured investment strategy [1][5][8]. Group 1: Investment Regrets - Lou Whiteman expresses regret over selling Axos Financial and Loews, which have significantly appreciated in value since he sold them, emphasizing the danger of selling based on whims rather than a solid investment thesis [1][5]. - Jason Hall shares his regret about selling Microsoft just before its substantial growth, attributing the decision to impatience rather than business concerns [5][8]. - Rick Munarriz recounts his experience with Netflix, where he sold 99% of his shares, leading to significant regret as the stock appreciated dramatically [6][7]. Group 2: Current Stock Recommendations - Jason Hall suggests Starbucks as a potential buy, citing improvements in operational management and a low bar for upcoming performance expectations, despite a history of negative comparable sales [10][11]. - Lou Whiteman highlights Montrose Environmental as a stock to watch, noting its role in environmental services and potential benefits from lower borrowing costs in a rate-cut environment [12][13]. - Rick Munarriz recommends Zillow Group, arguing that a decrease in financing rates could revitalize the residential real estate market, benefiting Zillow's business model and driving revenue growth [15][16].

Core Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech is a significant market catalyst following the Fed's recent rate cut, with global markets seeking clarity on future monetary policy [1][2] - The current Fed policy rate is set at 4.00%–4.25% after a 25 basis points cut, leading to divided investor sentiment regarding future rate adjustments [2][3] Market Reactions - Institutional investors are showing caution in the crypto markets, with significant outflows from Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, indicating a potential hedging strategy against a hawkish tone from Powell [4] - Bitcoin's price remains above $113,000, but the market is fragile, with traders closely monitoring key support and resistance levels in response to Powell's remarks [5] Macro Context - The U.S. Dollar Index is stable near 97.40, and 10-year Treasury yields are around 4.15%, reflecting investor caution ahead of Powell's speech, which typically pressures risk assets like Bitcoin [6] - Gold prices are reaching new highs as capital shifts away from crypto, suggesting that traditional safe havens are currently favored in the inflation hedge narrative [7]

Core Viewpoint - The first rate cut of 2025 has been implemented, raising concerns about the potential for additional cuts, which contributes to the uncertainty faced by fixed income investors [1] Group 1 - The initial rate cut marks a significant shift in monetary policy, indicating a response to prevailing economic conditions [1] - Fixed income investors are currently navigating a landscape filled with market uncertainties, exacerbated by the prospect of further rate cuts [1]

Oracle ( ORCL ) has confirmed it will run TikTok US; is naming two CEOs to accommodate the handoffFed Governor Stephen Miran, the 'lone dot' on the Fed Dot Plot, said that Fed rates should be 2.00% lower in his first public speech post-FOMC.The index went from 6,200 to 6,300 in just 15 trading days. From there, it went to 6,400 in 17, 6,500 in 13, and 6,600 in 12. If it were to hit 6,700 today, it would have done so in just 6 trading days.The S&P 500 is sitting just off intraday highs, inching closer and cl ...

Gm anons.Any post-rate slash plan this week? ...

Economic and Market Conditions - The U.S. stock markets have reached all-time highs, leading to increased investor anxiety due to the higher stakes involved [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts could benefit the economy by steepening the yield curve, which may encourage bank lending [1][3] - Despite the potential benefits of rate cuts, the U.S. economy does not urgently require them, as lending has already accelerated from 2.8% to 4.5% year-over-year [3] Manufacturing Reshoring - The prospect of reshoring manufacturing in the U.S. does not guarantee positive outcomes for U.S. industrial stocks, as market focus remains on earnings rather than production locations [4] - Reshoring involves significant upfront and ongoing costs, including compliance with stringent environmental regulations, which could negatively impact profit margins [4][5] - The reshoring process is lengthy and complex, often taking years due to investment, planning, and regulatory hurdles, making it speculative to base current investments on this trend [5] Employment Data Reliability - The reliability of jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is diminishing due to declining response rates from firms, leading to potential revisions in the data [7][9] - Monthly jobs data is often too volatile for sound investment decisions, as it typically reflects past conditions rather than current market realities [10] Social Security Funding Concerns - The proposed "One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)" could reduce Social Security funding by an estimated $169 billion over the next decade, potentially shifting the program's insolvency date from Q3 2034 to Q1 2034 [11][14] - Despite concerns about insolvency, it is important to note that annual revenues would still cover approximately 70% to 80% of benefits through 2100 [12] - The OBBBA tax cuts represent only 4% of Social Security's revenues, with the majority coming from payroll taxes, which remain unaffected by the bill [14]

Core Viewpoint - The State Bank of India (SBI) report suggests that a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in September is the most favorable option due to controlled inflation and a positive outlook for further moderation [1][8] Inflation Outlook - Inflation is expected to remain benign, tracking below 2 percent in September and October without any Goods and Services Tax (GST) cut [2][8] - CPI numbers for FY27 are estimated to be around 4 percent or less, with potential for October CPI to fall to approximately 1.1 percent, the lowest since 2004 [5][8] Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting - The MPC is scheduled to meet on September 29 and 30, with a policy announcement expected on October 1, 2025 [5][8] Rate Cut Rationale - The report warns against the risk of repeating a Type 2 error by maintaining a neutral stance despite favorable conditions, emphasizing the need for calibrated communication from the central bank [1][5][8] - Post-June, the threshold for rate cuts has increased, necessitating careful messaging from the RBI [1][8] CPI Inflation Projections - SBI anticipates that CPI inflation may decline further by 65-75 bps due to expected GST rationalization [6][8] - Historical data from 2019 indicates that reducing GST rates for common goods led to a 35 bps decline in overall inflation within a few months [6][8] - With the new CPI series, further moderation of 20-30 bps in inflation is expected, keeping CPI inflation at the lower end of the target band of 4 percent plus-minus 2 percent for FY26 and FY27 [7][8]