2/10年期德债收益率利差涨1.012个基点，报+74.214个基点。 周一（5月19日）欧市尾盘，德国10年期国债收益率跌0.2个基点，报2.588%，日内至北京时间17:25震 荡上行至2.654%刷新日高，随后逐步回吐涨幅，并于23:16跌至2.572%刷新日低。 两年期德债收益率跌1.2个基点，报1.843%，日内交投于1.896%-1.834%区间；30年期德债收益率跌0.2 个基点，报3.038%。 ...

英国30年期国债收益率上升9个基点，至5.48%，为4月11日以来的最高水平。 ...

英国30年期国债收益率日内涨9个基点至5.48%，为4月11日以来最高水平。 ...

德国10年期国债收益率延续涨势，日内涨5个基点，现报2.64%。 ...

金十数据5月19日讯，穆迪评级将美国评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，导致长期国债收益率上升，30年期国债收 益率突破了5%的关键水平。KBC分析师在一份报告中表示，评级下调立即引发了长期收益率的膝跳反 应。不过，他们说，考虑到美国政府的预算状况，下调评级决定并不令人意外。此举"在很大程度上是 象征性的，因为另外两家评级机构此前已经下调了评级。" 穆迪下调美国评级，30年期美国国债收益率升至5%以上 ...

智通财经5月19日电，美国30年期国债收益率持续拉升，一度触及5%，现报4.995%。 ...

Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - The 10 - year Treasury yields of various major economies on May 16, 2025, and their latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes are presented. For example, the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.480 on May 16, 2025, with a latest change of 0.047, a weekly change of 0.100, a monthly change of 0.144, and a yearly change of - 0.015 [3]. 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - The 2 - year Treasury yields of some major economies on May 16, 2025, and their corresponding changes are shown. For instance, the US 2 - year Treasury yield was 4.050 on that date, with a latest change of 0.030, a weekly change of 0.270, a monthly change of 0.310, and a yearly change of - 0.770 [3]. Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - The exchange rates of the dollar against major emerging - market currencies on May 16, 2025, and their changes are provided. For example, the dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate was 5.665 on that day, with a latest change of - 0.31%, a weekly change of 0.19%, a monthly change of - 3.76%, and a yearly change of 11.28% [3]. Stock Indices of Major Economies - The stock indices of major economies on May 16, 2025, and their latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly percentage changes are given. For example, the S&P 500 index was 5958.380 on that date, with a latest change of 0.70%, a weekly change of 5.27%, a monthly change of 10.41%, and a yearly change of 14.86% [3]. Credit Bond Indices - The credit bond indices of different regions and levels on May 16, 2025, and their changes are presented. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index was 3344.160 on that day, with a latest change of 0.13%, a weekly change of 0.19%, a monthly change of 0.90%, and a yearly change of 5.44% [3][4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are provided. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3367.46 with a change of - 0.40% [5]. Valuation - The PE (TTM) and their环比 changes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX are given. For example, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 12.56 with a环比 change of - 0.08 [5]. Risk Premium - The risk premiums and their环比 changes of S&P 500 and German DAX are presented. For example, the risk premium of S&P 500 was - 0.56 with a环比 change of - 0.08 [5]. Fund Flows - The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, small - and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are provided. For example, the latest fund flow in A - shares was - 263.31 [5]. Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - and medium - sized enterprise board, and ChiNext are given. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 10895.29 with a环比 change of - 628.66 [5]. Main Contract Basis and Spread - The basis and spread of IF, IH, and IC are presented. For example, the basis of IF was - 43.09 with a spread of - 1.11% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 are provided. For example, the closing price of T00 was 108.480 with a change of 0.02% [6]. - The funding rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M and their daily changes are given. For example, the funding rate of R001 was 1.6513% with a daily change of 10.00 BP [6].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its forecast for U.S. Treasury yields by the end of 2025, predicting a 10-year yield of 4.5% and a 2-year yield of 3.9% due to various economic factors [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Factors Influencing Predictions - The U.S. economy continues to grow above potential levels, with a tight labor market driving wage increases [3]. - The pace of inflation decline is slowing, with core PCE potentially not reaching the Federal Reserve's 2% target until 2026 [3]. - Expectations for a rate cut cycle have been delayed, with Goldman Sachs forecasting the median federal funds rate to remain between 4.0% and 4.25% in 2025 [3]. Group 2: Implications of Yield Changes - An increase in 10-year Treasury yields to 4.5% may lead to significant adjustments in cross-asset allocations, potentially suppressing valuations in the tech sector due to rising corporate financing costs [3]. - Rising borrowing costs may pressure the real estate and high-yield bond markets [3]. - The attractiveness of U.S. Treasury yields could lead to a return of foreign capital, increasing volatility in emerging market currencies [3]. - Traditional investment strategies may need reevaluation as the "stock-bond balance" strategy becomes ineffective [3]. Group 3: Risks and Warnings - Goldman Sachs warns of risks from economic overheating and policy missteps, suggesting that geopolitical conflicts could drive energy prices higher, potentially pushing the 10-year yield up to 5% in the short term [4]. - If the Federal Reserve is forced to cut rates early due to financial stability risks, the yield curve may experience a steepening reversal [4].

2/10年期德债收益率利差跌0.716个基点，报+73.202个基点，本周累跌4.252个基点。 周五（5月16日）欧市尾盘，德国10年期国债收益率下跌3.2个基点，报2.590%，本周累计上涨2.8个基 点，周一至周三持续走高，最高涨至2.701%，周四和周五回吐涨幅，周五北京时间18:15报2.563%几乎 完全回吐本周稍早涨幅。 两年期德债收益率跌2.4个基点，报1.855%，本周累涨7.0个基点，周三欧股盘前涨至1.952%，随后持续 回落，周五一度接近1.840%；30年期德债收益率跌2.7个基点，报3.040%，本周累涨2.1个基点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK bond yields have experienced notable fluctuations this week, with the 10-year yield rising significantly, indicating market volatility and potential shifts in investor sentiment [1] Summary by Relevant Categories 10-Year Bond Yield - The 10-year UK government bond yield increased by 8.0 basis points, closing at 4.648% on Friday, May 16, after reaching a peak of 4.723% earlier in the week [1] Short-Term Bond Yields - The 2-year UK bond yield rose by a total of 9.7 basis points, ending at 4.005%, starting from 3.930% on Monday and peaking at 4.032% on Wednesday [1] Long-Term Bond Yields - The 30-year UK bond yield saw an increase of 4.6 basis points, closing at 5.392%, while the 50-year bond yield rose by 10.4 basis points to 4.669% [1] Yield Spread - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year UK bonds decreased by 1.542 basis points, now standing at +64.066 basis points [1]