智通财经APP获悉，据景顺高级投资组合经理Alessio de Longis称，在美联储降息的可能性增加以及美 国国债的传统避险地位得以恢复的情况下，美国国债比欧洲债券更具投资价值。 在特朗普于 4 月实施"解放日"关税政策之后，美国国债的表现起初落后于欧洲国债，因为这一举措动摇 了人们对美国国债安全性的信心。但de Longis表示，自年初以来他一直持有的这种超配仓位"得到了有 力的证明"，因为美国就业数据的下滑促使美联储采取更激进的宽松政策。 他在一次采访中表示："外国央行在宽松政策的实施方面更为优先，我们认为美联储仍有下调利率的空 间。固定收益资产表现优异的原因应当是今年剩余时间里经济放缓的更多迹象。" 关键的考验将在周五到来，届时美联储主席鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔举行的全球央行会议上发表备受期待 的讲话。市场利率预期显示，美联储到今年年底利率将降息两次25个基点，de Longis预计鲍威尔会提及 在九月进行降息的可能性。 de Longis表示："美国的劳动力市场报告正日益成为'最受关注的经济数据'。"他还称，投资者"正试图将 更多投资转向更安全的固定收益资产"。 自四月冲击以来，美国国债再次重获青睐， ...

2/10年期德债收益率利差跌0.199个基点，报+76.486个基点，本周累跌5.868个基点。 周五（7月25日）欧市尾盘，德国10年期国债收益率涨1.6个基点，报2.718%，本周累计上涨2.3个基 点，7月22日一度跌至2.586%，随后持续反弹，7月25日一度涨至2.769%。 两年期德债收益率涨1.5个基点，报1.948%，本周累涨2.3个基点，7月22日跌至2.585%之后反弹，7月25 日一度达到2.769%；30年期德债收益率涨1.5个基点，报3.207%，本周累跌2.5个基点。 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1446.940, increasing by 24.700 or 1.74% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1294.303, increasing by 14.188 or 1.11% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is priced at 3373.100, increasing by 17.400 or 0.52% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is priced at 38.845, increasing by 0.420 or 1.09% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to USD (EURUSD) is at 1.165, increasing by 0.20% [4] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) is at 1.346, increasing by 0.37% [4] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) is at 147.755, decreasing by 0.72% [4] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) is at 0.651, increasing by 0.11% [4] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) is at 0.800, decreasing by 0.15% [4] Group 3: Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin is priced at 118578.140, increasing by 1313.020 or 1.12% [5] - Litecoin is priced at 118.370, increasing by 1.780 or 1.53% [5] - Ethereum is priced at 3811.020, increasing by 54.330 or 1.45% [5] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 3.552, increasing by 0.099 or 2.86% [5] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond is at 3.848 [7] - The yield on the 5-year U.S. Treasury bond is at 3.913, decreasing by 0.048 or 1.21% [8] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is at 4.376, decreasing by 0.055 or 1.24% [8] - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is at 4.950, decreasing by 0.049 or 0.98% [8] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is at 4.627, decreasing by 0.047 or 1.01% [8] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is at 2.633, decreasing by 0.059 or 2.19% [8] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is at 3.329, decreasing by 0.068 or 2.00% [8] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is at 3.510, decreasing by 0.068 or 1.90% [8] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is at 1.522, decreasing by 0.037 or 2.37% [8]

Core Viewpoint - The aggressive tariff policies led by the Trump administration and the "big and beautiful" bill, which significantly increases the budget deficit, have caused the so-called "American exceptionalism" to collapse, prompting overseas investors to flock to the European market [1] Group 1: Overseas Investment Trends - In May, overseas buyers purchased nearly €100 billion (approximately $116 billion) of eurozone bond assets, marking the strongest buying scale by overseas investors in 2023 [1][4] - Traditional asset management institutions have significantly sold off U.S. Treasury assets in response to Trump's tariff announcements, seeking to allocate funds into safer European sovereign bonds like German government bonds [1] Group 2: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - Foreign investors' total holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds reached $9.05 trillion in May, with a modest increase of $32.4 billion from April [5] - Despite this, concerns over potential inflation due to Trump's tariff policies and the collapse of "American exceptionalism" have led to a sell-off in the U.S. Treasury market, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising by 50 basis points since April 2 [5] - The "big and beautiful" bill is expected to significantly expand the government budget deficit, contributing to upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, particularly for the 10-year Treasury yield, which is seen as a global asset pricing anchor [5][6] Group 3: European Bond Market Appeal - Compared to the U.S., Europe offers a more stable policy environment, lower budget deficit outlook, and lower inflation levels, making its sovereign bonds more attractive to global central banks [6] - The European Central Bank has more room to lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth due to lower inflation, enhancing the appeal of European bonds [6] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Projections - The market is currently questioning the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy due to Trump's threats to potentially dismiss Fed Chairman Powell, which has led to increased scrutiny on long-term Treasury yields [6] - The term premium for 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is hovering at its highest level since 2014, reflecting investor concerns over the future borrowing scale of Washington [6][7] - Economists predict that under the Trump administration, the scale of national debt and budget deficits will be significantly higher than official forecasts, driven by a framework of "domestic tax cuts + external tariffs" [7]

Core Viewpoint - The German bond market experienced fluctuations in yields, with the 10-year bond yield declining and then rising before ultimately closing lower, indicating volatility in investor sentiment and market conditions [1] Group 1: Yield Movements - The 10-year German bond yield fell by 1.3 basis points to 2.675%, reaching a daily high of 2.713% before declining to a low of 2.662% [1] - The 2-year German bond yield increased by 0.2 basis points to 1.862%, trading within a range of 1.850% to 1.873% during the day [1] - The 30-year German bond yield decreased by 1.6 basis points to 3.198% [1] Group 2: Yield Spread - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year German bonds narrowed by 1.526 basis points to +80.966 basis points, having previously reached a daily high of +84.647 basis points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in German government bond yields, particularly in response to news regarding President Trump's intentions to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which caused temporary volatility in the bond market [1]. Group 1: Bond Yield Movements - The yield on the 10-year German government bond decreased by 2.4 basis points, settling at 2.687%, before rising to a daily high of 2.729% and then declining to a low of 2.697% [1]. - The 2-year German bond yield fell by 2.7 basis points to 1.860%, trading within a range of 1.894% to 1.835% during the day [1]. - The yield on the 30-year German bond decreased by 1.3 basis points, reaching 3.214% [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year German bonds increased by 0.208 basis points, reaching +82.492 basis points, indicating a reaction to Trump's reported intentions regarding Powell [1]. - Following the media reports about Trump's draft to dismiss Powell, there was a sharp spike and subsequent decline in bond yields, which was quickly reversed after Trump denied the reports [1].

Group 1 - The German 10-year bond yield decreased by 1.9 basis points, reaching 2.712% [1] - The two-year German bond yield increased by 1.0 basis point, reaching 1.887% [1] - The 30-year German bond yield fell by 1.9 basis points, settling at 3.226% [1] Group 2 - The 2/10 year German bond yield spread decreased by 2.741 basis points, reported at +82.311 basis points [1] - European stocks opened lower and maintained a downward trend throughout the day, exhibiting a U-shaped movement [1] - The trading range for the German 10-year bond yield was between 2.726% and 2.670% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over global government fiscal sustainability are intensifying, leading to a renewed sell-off in long-term bonds, with yields surging across various countries [1][2]. Group 1: Global Bond Market Dynamics - The recent sell-off in long-term bonds mirrors the significant bond market turmoil experienced in May, driven by fears of government deficits across major economies including the US, UK, France, and Germany [1][2]. - The yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds has approached 5%, reflecting a cumulative increase of over 20 basis points since the beginning of the month, as investors react to rising inflation concerns and substantial future debt increases due to legislative measures [2][3]. - German long-term bond yields have reached their highest levels since 2011, with the 30-year yield rising to 3.25%, influenced by increased government spending and trade tensions with the US [3]. Group 2: Japan's Bond Market Situation - Japanese long-term bonds led the global market decline, with the 40-year bond yield jumping 17 basis points, and the 30-year yield nearing historical highs due to upcoming elections and potential fiscal policy changes [5][6]. - Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 250%, the highest among developed economies, with a significant portion of the budget allocated for debt repayment, totaling 28.2 trillion yen (approximately 191 billion USD) [5][6]. - The Bank of Japan's exit from negative interest rates and the reduction in bond purchases by traditional investors like life insurance companies have contributed to the volatility in the bond market [5][6]. Group 3: Implications for the Economy - Rising long-term bond yields in Japan are expected to increase corporate bond issuance costs, potentially leading to a reduction in domestic bond issuance or a shift towards overseas financing [6][7]. - Analysts express concerns that sustained increases in Japanese bond yields could negatively impact the stock market, particularly in the context of rising government spending and inflation [7]. - The correlation between US tech stock valuations and Japanese bond yields has been noted, suggesting that a significant rise in Japanese yields could tighten global liquidity and adversely affect US tech stocks reliant on low-cost funding [7].

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1372.340, up by 11.790 or 0.87% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1244.836, up by 50.257 or 4.21% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is priced at 3365.400, up by 32.400 or 0.97% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is priced at 38.415, up by 0.790 or 2.10% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to USD (EURUSD) is at 1.170, increasing by 0.04% [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) is at 1.351, decreasing by 0.48% [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) is at 147.015, increasing by 0.53% [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) is at 0.658, decreasing by 0.07% [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) is at 0.796, decreasing by 0.13% [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin is priced at 117453.350, up by 1443.350 or 1.24% [4] - Litecoin is priced at 96.000, up by 1.150 or 1.21% [4] - Ethereum is priced at 2985.910, up by 34.610 or 1.17% [4] - Ripple is priced at 2.727, up by 0.180 or 7.08% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond is 3.895, up by 0.027 or 0.70% [6] - The yield on the 5-year U.S. Treasury bond is 3.971, up by 0.040 or 1.02% [7] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is 4.398, up by 0.041 or 0.94% [7] - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is 4.920, up by 0.058 or 1.19% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is 4.628, up by 0.027 or 0.59% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is 2.683, up by 0.021 or 0.79% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is 3.411, up by 0.020 or 0.59% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is 3.605, up by 0.024 or 0.67% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is 1.529, up by 0.038 or 2.55% [7]

Commodity Prices - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1373.405, showing an increase of 2.401 or 0.18% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1135.375, reflecting a decrease of 1.721 or 0.15% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is trading at 3331.500, up by 9.000 or 0.27% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is priced at 36.675, with an increase of 0.070 or 0.19% [2] Foreign Exchange Rates - Euro to USD (EURUSD) is at 1.174, increasing by 0.18% [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) is at 1.361, up by 0.17% [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) is at 145.827, decreasing by 0.33% [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) is at 0.654, increasing by 0.14% [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) is at 0.793, down by 0.17% [3] Cryptocurrency Prices - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 111299.990, with an increase of 65.990 or 0.06% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is at 90.840, up by 0.230 or 0.25% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 2776.220, increasing by 7.470 or 0.27% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is at 2.428, with an increase of 0.024 or 1.00% [4] Treasury Bond Yields - The yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond is at 3.839 [5] - The yield on the 5-year US Treasury bond is at 3.903, down by 0.017 or 0.43% [5] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is at 4.324, decreasing by 0.016 or 0.37% [5] - The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond is at 4.859, down by 0.016 or 0.33% [5] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is at 4.601, decreasing by 0.009 or 0.20% [5] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is at 2.631, down by 0.011 or 0.40% [5] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is at 3.357, decreasing by 0.005 or 0.15% [5] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is at 3.548, down by 0.013 or 0.37% [5] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is at 1.491, decreasing by 0.014 or 0.93% [5]