国外 1. 花旗：预计9月核心通胀将有所降温 花旗经济学家预计，9月份核心CPI将上涨0.28%，低于8月份的0.35%。虽然关税可能会使商品价格保持 坚挺，但住房通胀放缓应会缓解整体服务通胀。政府关门可能会推迟数据的发布，但花旗表示，劳动力 市场走软和房价降温降低了持续通胀的风险。 2. 巴克莱：黄金上涨反映市场对现有财政与货币秩序的不信任 巴克莱全球研究主席Ajay Rajadhyaksha在一份报告中表示，今年黄金价格的上涨，标志着市场对现有财 政和货币秩序的不信任感正在加剧。他指出，四个主要经济体——美国、英国、法国和日本——的债务 负担均超过各自GDP的100%，而它们的财政状况仍在恶化。他补充说："最重要的是，几乎没有政治意 愿去进行财政整顿。"与此同时，其他传统的避险资产，例如日元和瑞士法郎，正在失去部分吸引力。 Rajadhyaksha称，黄金通常在经济摇摇欲坠或金融市场崩溃时上涨。他认为，尽管金融市场目前表现健 康，但黄金最近的上涨应该引起政策制定者的警惕。 3. 荷兰国际：预计黄金牛市将持续，但"世界和平"可能导致金价下跌 荷兰国际集团认为黄金的牛市仍有进一步上涨空间。该机构预计黄金价格将 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent weeks have seen a significant rise in long-term bond yields across developed economies, reaching multi-year highs, driven by concerns over fiscal sustainability and external risks [1][4][5] Group 1: Long-term Bond Yields - The yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond is approaching 5.0%, while the UK, Germany, France, and Japan have also seen their 30-year bond yields rise to levels not seen in years, with the UK reaching 5.7%, Germany at 3.4%, France at 4.5%, and Japan surpassing 3.15% for the first time [1][4] - The increase in yields is attributed to a combination of fiscal expansion pressures and a lack of confidence in the fiscal discipline of major economies, particularly in Europe and Japan [4][5] Group 2: Supply-Side Factors - The expansion of fiscal policies in developed economies is leading to an imbalance in the supply of long-term bonds, increasing government debt burdens and pushing yields higher [5][6] - As of August 11, the US federal government debt has surpassed $37 trillion, arriving five years earlier than previously predicted, with interest payments projected to reach $1-1.2 trillion by the 2025 fiscal year [5][6] Group 3: Demand-Side Factors - Concerns over fiscal sustainability are causing investors to sell off long-term bonds, leading to a deterioration in demand structure, including reduced government purchases and declining foreign investment [10][11] - Traditional long-term bond holders, such as central banks and insurance companies, are becoming more sensitive to interest rates, shifting their preferences towards shorter-duration bonds [11][12] Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that while there may be short-term opportunities to go long on short-term US Treasury rates due to expected rate cuts, the overall trend of rising long-term yields is likely to continue [12] - The yield curve is currently exhibiting a "bear steepening" phenomenon, with both short and long-term rates rising, but the potential for further significant increases in long-term yields may be limited [12]

Core Viewpoint - Recent weeks have seen a significant rise in long-term bond yields across developed markets, reaching multi-year highs, driven by concerns over fiscal sustainability and external risks in various economies [1][3][4] Supply Side: "Fiscal Expansion" Leading to Imbalance - The current surge in long-term bond yields reflects a severe imbalance in supply and demand, exacerbated by fiscal expansion pressures in major economies [4] - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $37 trillion, with interest payments projected to reach $1-1.2 trillion by fiscal year 2025, indicating a growing fiscal burden [4][5] - France's government is facing challenges in reducing its deficit, with proposed budget cuts meeting public resistance, which could further strain its fiscal position [5][6] Demand Side: Investors Reacting to Fiscal Concerns - Concerns over fiscal sustainability are leading to increased selling of long-term bonds, with a notable decline in demand from traditional holders such as central banks and insurance companies [9][10] - The structure of bondholders is shifting, with a decrease in the proportion of "non-price sensitive" buyers, leading to heightened volatility in bond markets [10] - The demand for long-term bonds is being negatively impacted by reduced purchases from foreign investors, particularly from Japan and China, which are significant holders of U.S. debt [9][10] Market Outlook - Analysts suggest a focus on short-term U.S. Treasury rates, anticipating a continuation of the steepening yield curve, although the potential for further significant increases in long-term yields may be limited [11] - The current market dynamics indicate that while short-term yields may rise, long-term yields could face resistance at key levels, particularly around the 5% mark for 30-year bonds [11]

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bond market is no longer responding to central bank narratives, with a significant rise in yields across major economies, including the US, UK, Germany, and France, reaching historical highs [1][6][18] - Investors are increasingly skeptical of central bank promises and are focusing on the expanding fiscal deficits of governments, as highlighted by the IMF's warnings regarding the US debt burden [1][2][6] Group 2: US Debt Situation - As of April 2025, the US national debt has surpassed $36.4 trillion, with $9.5 trillion maturing within the next 12 months, leading to a reliance on new debt issuance [2][4] - Interest payments for the US government are projected to approach $1 trillion in 2025, surpassing both healthcare and defense spending, indicating a significant financial burden [2][4] Group 3: Global Debt Trends - The UK and Japan are also facing severe debt challenges, with UK 30-year bond yields reaching 5.64%, the highest since 1998, and Japan's debt exceeding 250% of GDP [4][6] - France's fiscal deficit remains above 5% of GDP, raising concerns about its ability to manage debt effectively [4][6] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Investment Shifts - The bond market is punishing governments with poor fiscal discipline, leading to higher required yields as investors seek compensation for risk [6][10] - Traditional safe-haven behaviors are diminishing, with investors prioritizing inflation and debt concerns over the historical safety of bonds [6][10] Group 5: Precious Metals Performance - Gold and silver have emerged as preferred safe-haven assets, with gold prices rising over 33% in 2025, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [10][12] - Silver prices have also surged, driven by industrial demand, particularly in solar energy and electric vehicles, with a projected supply gap of 149 million ounces in 2025 [10][12] Group 6: Central Bank Actions and Currency Dynamics - Central banks are increasing their gold reserves, with global demand reaching a record 4,974 tons in 2024, as they diversify away from dollar-denominated assets [11][16] - The weakening of the US dollar, with its share in global reserves dropping to 57.4%, is contributing to the attractiveness of gold and silver as alternative assets [14][16]

Group 1 - A global government bond sell-off is occurring, pushing the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield towards the psychological 5% mark [2] - The sell-off has affected bond markets across the Atlantic, with yields rising in the U.S., U.K., Italy, and France, reaching new highs since the financial crisis [2][4] - The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield has risen to 5%, marking the first time since July, while the 10-year yield has climbed to 4.291% [2] Group 2 - The U.K. 30-year Treasury yield has reached 5.72%, the highest since 1998, while Germany and France's yields have also hit their highest levels since 2011 and 2009, respectively [4] - Japan's 30-year Treasury yield has surged to 3.28%, the highest on record, with the 20-year yield reaching 2.69%, a new high since 1999 [7] Group 3 - The sell-off is attributed to a combination of massive corporate bond supply, concerns over government fiscal conditions, and seasonal liquidity tightening [8] - September is traditionally unfavorable for long bond holders, with significant corporate bond issuance expected, estimated at $150 billion to $180 billion in the U.S. alone this month [10][11] - The market is currently focused on the upcoming U.S. employment report, which will influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [8][14] Group 4 - The bond market's turmoil reflects deep concerns about the fiscal health of developed economies, exacerbated by pandemic-related spending [12] - Historical trends indicate that September is typically a poor month for long-duration bonds, with a median decline of 2% over the past decade [13] - Technical liquidity factors are also contributing to the market's challenges, with significant cash withdrawals expected in September [13]

Group 1 - The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield is approaching 5% for the first time since July, reflecting concerns over budget deficits and increased bond issuance [1][5] - The spread between long-term and two-year Treasury yields has widened to 133 basis points, the largest gap since 2021, as the market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [4] - Global long-term bond yields are rising, with the U.K. 30-year yield reaching its highest level since 1998 at 5.752%, indicating ongoing concerns about fiscal conditions in major economies [5] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S. job vacancy data is expected to provide insights into the potential extent of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with economists predicting a drop to 7.382 million vacancies in July [1] - Investor sentiment is cautious ahead of the U.S. employment data release, which could significantly alter interest rate expectations [7] - The recent rise in long-term Treasury yields is causing volatility in the U.S. stock market, as higher rates lead to a reassessment of growth stock valuations [8][9] Group 3 - The U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer is expected to announce new tax measures in the upcoming budget on November 26, which may further impact market sentiment [6] - In France, the Prime Minister is facing a confidence vote regarding a debt reduction plan, which is causing investor unease [7] - The overall market has shown signs of stabilization after significant sell-offs, with yields on eurozone bonds decreasing [7]

Core Viewpoint - A global bond sell-off is occurring, pushing the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield towards the psychological threshold of 5% [2][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The sell-off has affected government bond markets across the U.S., U.K., Italy, and France, with yields rising significantly, including the U.K. and France reaching their highest levels since the financial crisis [1][13]. - The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5%, marking the first time since July, while the 10-year yield climbed to 4.291% [1]. - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.7%, its worst single-day performance since August 1, due to the negative sentiment in the bond market [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - A surge in corporate bond issuance is contributing to the sell-off, with predictions of $150 billion to $180 billion in investment-grade corporate bonds being issued in September, which is expected to exceed last year's figures [7][10]. - The influx of corporate bonds is providing investors with higher-yield alternatives, diverting funds away from government bonds [7][10]. - September is traditionally a challenging month for long-term bondholders, exacerbated by the return of traders from summer vacations and the influx of new corporate bond supply [7][10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Focus - The market is closely watching the upcoming U.S. employment report, which will influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [7][20]. - Current expectations suggest a 92% chance of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month, with the employment report being a critical variable for market direction [20]. - Strong employment data could heighten concerns over prolonged high rates, while weak data may reinforce rate cut expectations, providing relief to the struggling bond market [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring global debt markets alongside domestic markets to understand the current economic environment and potential asset price movements [1]. Group 1: Global Debt Market Changes - The global debt market is experiencing significant turmoil, with rising yields indicating a loss of investor confidence in government bonds, particularly in developed countries like Japan, the UK, and Germany [1][2]. - Japan's 30-year bond yield reached a record high of 3.222% on August 30, while the 10-year yield surpassed 1.627%, marking peaks not seen since the 2008 financial crisis [1][2]. - Overseas investors sold 6.39 trillion yen (approximately 439 million USD) of Japanese bonds in a single month, reflecting a drastic reduction in demand [2]. Group 2: Interconnectedness of Global Bonds - The article highlights that bonds from developed countries are increasingly interconnected, meaning that issues in one country's bond market can trigger crises in others [3][5]. - The rise in yields across European bonds, such as the UK's 30-year bond reaching 5.64%, indicates a broader trend of declining demand for government debt [2][3]. - The decline in demand for U.S. bonds, despite strong expectations for interest rate cuts, suggests a growing reluctance among investors to hold these assets [3]. Group 3: Implications for Global Economy - The rising yields and lack of buyers for government bonds signal potential crises in the global financial markets, which could lead to a significant economic downturn, potentially worse than the 2008 crisis [6]. - The article warns that even countries with strong macroeconomic controls will be affected by these global trends, as their economies are tied to external demand [6][7]. - The current environment necessitates a careful approach to asset allocation, with a recommendation to invest in recognized safe-haven assets like gold [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market experienced a slight decline, with an overall increase in market risk appetite, leading to a drop in government bond futures and a rise in interbank bond yields [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.18% to 116.680, the 10-year main contract down 0.03% to 107.955, the 5-year main contract down 0.02% to 105.57, and the 2-year main contract down 0.02% to 102.412 [2]. - The yields on major interbank bonds generally increased, with the 10-year policy bank bond yield rising by 0.1 basis points to 1.871%, and the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 0.15 basis points to 1.77% [2]. Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 2,557 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,501 billion yuan for the day [4]. - The Shibor rates for short-term products mostly declined, with the overnight rate down 0.1 basis points to 1.314%, and the 7-day rate down 0.7 basis points to 1.431%, marking a new low since September 2022 [4]. Institutional Insights - Financial institutions suggest that while the bond market may not be overly pessimistic, the overall liquidity in the secondary market remains weak, with structural highlights in certain floating-rate bonds [5]. - The outlook for September indicates that the central bank will maintain a reasonable liquidity level, especially considering the seasonal pressures from the end of the quarter [5].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Currency Concerns - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve continue to impact the dollar, leading to its decline following Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook [1] - Deutsche Bank analysts noted that these concerns have prompted investors to factor in faster rate cuts and higher inflation [1] Group 2: Commodity Currencies and Economic Policies - Goldman Sachs indicated that while the dollar may weaken, caution is advised when pursuing commodity currencies like the Australian, New Zealand, and Canadian dollars, which have shown relative weakness [2] - The underperformance of these currencies is attributed to domestic policy shifts and declining terminal rate pricing in Australia, New Zealand, and Canada [2] Group 3: UK Monetary Policy - Pantheon Macroeconomics analysts expect the Bank of England to slow its quantitative tightening to £700 billion from the current £1 trillion within the next 12 months [2] - This adjustment reflects growing concerns over the impact of quantitative tightening on the UK government bond market [2] Group 4: France's Fiscal Situation - Despite France's poor public finance situation, it is unlikely to seek assistance from the International Monetary Fund, with potential reliance on the European Stability Mechanism or European Central Bank instead [3] - The yield spread between French and German bonds has widened, reaching 82 basis points, indicating increased risk due to political tensions [3] Group 5: South Korea's Inflation Outlook - South Korea's inflation may have eased in August, allowing the central bank to consider further policy easing to support economic growth [4] - Analysts predict the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will rise by 1.9% year-on-year, down from 2.1% in July, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.2% [4]