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华鲁恒升(600426):低成本煤化工龙头,回购彰显信心
China Post Securities· 2025-06-04 03:31
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2][5]. Core Views - The company reported a 2024 annual revenue of 34.226 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.55%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.903 billion yuan, up 9.14% year-on-year [5]. - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a revenue decline of 2.59% year-on-year, with a net profit drop of 33.65% year-on-year, attributed to pressure on product prices [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from the gradual release of its production capacity and a share buyback plan, which reflects management's confidence in long-term growth [5]. Company Overview - The latest closing price is 20.86 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 44.3 billion yuan [4]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 29.6% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.33 [4]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 342 billion yuan, with projected revenues of 348 billion yuan in 2025, 385 billion yuan in 2026, and 408 billion yuan in 2027 [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 38.87 billion yuan in 2025, 44.62 billion yuan in 2026, and 50.45 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.83, 2.10, and 2.38 yuan [6][7]. - The company’s EBITDA is expected to be 77.99 billion yuan in 2025, increasing to 93.41 billion yuan by 2027 [6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a low-cost leader in the coal chemical industry, with ongoing projects aimed at enhancing production capabilities [5]. - The management's decision to initiate a share buyback of 200 to 300 million yuan indicates strong confidence in the company's future [5].