1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekly synthesis rubber report suggests that the oscillation center has shifted upwards, with the supply of high - cis butadiene rubber decreasing this week and the demand maintaining a year - on - year high growth rate. The inventory has slightly decreased, and the valuation logic has changed. The short - term trading logic is diversified, and the price center has shifted upwards [2][4]. - The weekly butadiene report indicates that butadiene has rebounded in the short term. The supply is expected to remain stable, the demand from synthetic rubber is high, and the inventory is in a destocking state [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Butadiene Fundamentals - Pricing stage: Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage, with a low correlation to the raw material end [8]. - Capacity expansion: To match the expansion of downstream industries, butadiene capacity is continuously expanding, with the speed and amplitude slightly faster than that of downstream industries in some stages. In 2024, the new capacity was 380,000 tons; in 2025, 940,000 tons; and it is expected to be 620,000 tons in 2026 [10][12]. - Supply - side: - Production: This cycle (20251205 - 1211), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises was 113,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.08%. Next week, it is expected to be around 113,400 tons, with limited fluctuations [5]. - Operating rate: The operating rate has fluctuated, and some enterprises have carried out maintenance [14][15]. - Net imports: The data shows the monthly import and net import volume trends of butadiene in China [16]. - Demand - side: - Cis - butadiene rubber: The capacity increased by 200,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 190,000 tons in 2026 [18]. - Styrene - butadiene rubber: The capacity increased by 60,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 220,000 tons in 2026. The operating rate and maintenance situation of some enterprises are provided [20][21][27]. - ABS: The capacity is expected to increase by 1.635 million tons in 2025 and 1.3 million tons in 2026 [28][30]. - SBS: The capacity increased by 360,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 55,000 tons in 2026 [32][33]. - ABS and SBS fundamentals: The operating rate, profit, and inventory data of ABS and SBS are presented [35][36]. - Inventory - side: The weekly enterprise, port, and total inventory data of butadiene show the inventory trends over the years [37][38][39]. 3.2 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - Cis - butadiene rubber: - Supply: - Production: This week, the output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 28,400 tons, a decrease of 0.11 tons compared to the previous cycle, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.87%. The capacity utilization rate was 70.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.84 percentage points [4]. - Cost and profit: The daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin data over the years are provided [45][46][47]. - Import and export: The monthly import and export volume data of cis - butadiene rubber are presented [48][49]. - Inventory: The weekly enterprise, trader, and futures inventory data of cis - butadiene rubber show the inventory trends [52][53]. - Demand: The inventory and operating rate data of Shandong Province's all - steel and semi - steel tires are provided, reflecting the demand situation of cis - butadiene rubber in the tire industry [56][57].

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: November 23, 2025 [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - **Synthetic Rubber**: Synthetic rubber is expected to operate weakly within the valuation range. The supply of high - cis butadiene rubber has increased, while the demand from the tire industry has limited improvement, and the inventory has increased. The valuation logic has shifted, and the mid - term strategy is to go short on rallies [2][4][6]. - **Butadiene**: Butadiene is expected to be in a short - term volatile and long - term weak trend. The supply pressure is the main contradiction, and the inventory has increased significantly [9]. Summary by Directory Synthetic Rubber Supply - This cycle, Zhejiang Petrochemical continued its shutdown for maintenance, and Zhenhua New Material's butadiene rubber unit restarted. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 29,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.88%. The capacity utilization rate was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.72 percentage points. Next cycle, Maoming Petrochemical's butadiene rubber unit is expected to shut down for maintenance [4]. Demand - **Tire Demand**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased. Next cycle, it is expected to recover, but the overall demand increase is limited. - **Substitute Demand**: The NR - BR main contract spread remains high, and the substitute demand is also high, so the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a year - on - year high growth rate [4]. Inventory - As of November 19, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 31,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.24%. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises changed slightly [5]. Valuation - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 9,700 - 10,700 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support to NR - BR spread support. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost [5]. Strategy - **Single - sided**: Adopt a mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies without chasing short positions. The upper pressure is 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 9,600 - 9,700 yuan/ton [6]. - **Cross - variety**: The NR - BR spread is at a high valuation and is expected to fluctuate at a high level [7]. Butadiene Supply - This cycle, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 115,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.67%. Next week, the output is expected to be about 115,000 tons, a slight decrease [9]. Demand - **Synthetic Rubber**: The mid - term operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a year - on - year high. In December, with the reduction of butadiene rubber unit maintenance, the rigid demand for butadiene is expected to increase. - **ABS**: The inventory pressure is high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited incremental demand. - **SBS**: The operating rate has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remains rigid with little change [11]. Inventory - From November 13 - 19, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased significantly, a week - on - week increase of 17.99%. The inventory of sample enterprises increased by 1.17%, and the inventory of sample ports increased by 37.24%. As of November 19, the inventory at East China ports was about 39,800 tons, an increase of 10,800 tons from the previous cycle [11]. View - In the short term, the low absolute price drives downstream periodic replenishment, the trading improves, and the price stabilizes. In the long term, the supply pressure is the main contradiction, and the fundamental pressure is still high, so it is expected to be in a weak pattern [9].