Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market shows a slight correction. The short - term trend of butadiene rubber is mainly range - bound, with the upside space narrowing. The macro - sentiment provides support, but the industrial chain fundamentals face significant pressure [1][3]. - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,000 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to fluctuate. The upper valuation limit of the market is around 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation limit is around 11,000 yuan/ton [1][3]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the butadiene rubber main contract (08 contract), the daily closing price decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 11,535 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 26,899 lots to 101,885 lots, the open interest decreased by 1,690 lots to 22,739 lots, and the trading volume increased by 155,996 ten - thousand yuan to 590,450 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong butadiene - futures main contract) increased by 90 to 115, the monthly spread (BR08 - BR09) increased by 35 to 55. The prices of North China, East China, and South China butadiene (private) were 11,400 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), 11,450 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 11,550 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [1]. - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,650 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 12,000 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) remained unchanged at 10,900 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 100 yuan/ton and 35 yuan/ton to 9,400 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate increased by 0.17% to 65.2894%, the theoretical full cost remained unchanged at 12,079 yuan/ton, and the profit remained unchanged at - 379 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,000 - 11,800 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation is expected to fluctuate due to the short - term improvement in butadiene trading. The upper valuation limit of the market is around 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation limit is around 11,000 yuan/ton [1][3]. - In the short term, butadiene rubber will mainly operate in a range - bound manner, with the upside space narrowing. The recent rebound in butadiene rubber futures prices is mainly driven by the improvement in macro - sentiment and the continuous rebound of crude oil, but the spot trading is light, and the fundamentals of the industrial chain face significant pressure [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].

Report Summary Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The report anticipates that synthetic rubber will experience short - term oscillatory movements. The fundamentals of the synthetic rubber industry, including both butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber, are currently in a neutral to slightly weak state, with no obvious trends in the short term [2][4]. Directory Summaries 1. Market Judgment - **Futures - end Static Valuation**: The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures is 11,200 - 11,800 yuan/ton. The upper valuation limit is around 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation limit is 11,200 yuan/ton [4]. - **Butadiene Fundamentals**: Asian butadiene prices remain stable, with a neutral domestic fundamental situation and prices oscillating around 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Supply is high, imports are neutral, demand is stable, production - enterprise inventories are rising, and port inventories are slightly declining [4]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to maintain a high year - on - year level and increase month - on - month. Demand remains high, and inventories are at a high year - on - year level. The fundamentals have a weak driving force, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Futures**: In the short term, with the temporary easing of the Middle East geopolitical situation and the rebound of natural rubber, the cis - butadiene rubber futures are expected to oscillate without an obvious trend [4]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral short - term oscillatory movement; the spread between NR - BR widens [4]. 2. Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity Expansion**: To match the expansion of downstream industries, butadiene capacity is continuously expanding, with a slightly faster pace than downstream industries at certain stages. In 2024, the new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [9][11]. - **Supply - side**: The industry's operating rate is at a high year - on - year level. With the resumption of some ethylene plants, the weekly output remains high. Some enterprises have maintenance plans, which will affect production [13][14][15]. - **Net Imports**: Short - term import volumes are neutral [4]. - **Demand - side**: - **Cis - Butadiene and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber Capacity**: New capacity has been put into operation in recent years, and more is expected in 2025 [19]. - **ABS and SBS Capacity**: There was significant capacity expansion in 2024 and 2025 [28]. - **Fundamentals**: ABS has stable operating rates, profits, and inventory levels. SBS has a certain capacity utilization rate [29][30]. - **Inventory - side**: Production - enterprise inventories are rising, and port inventories are slightly declining [4]. 3. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Supply**: - **Output**: The weekly output shows certain fluctuations, and the operating rate is expected to remain high [38]. - **Cost and Profit**: The processing profit is gradually returning to above the break - even line [4]. - **Imports and Exports**: Import and export volumes show historical trends [43][44]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise, futures, and trader inventories are at certain levels, with enterprise inventories at a high year - on - year level [48][49]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Demand - side**: - **Tire**: Shandong's all - steel tire inventory and domestic semi - steel and all - steel tire operating rates show historical trends [52][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The synthetic rubber market has support at the lower end but limited driving forces. The market for butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber is expected to be mainly fluctuating in the short - term, with cis - butadiene rubber showing support due to relatively low valuation despite a lack of fundamental drivers [2][4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Judgment - **Static and Dynamic Valuation of Cis - butadiene Rubber Futures**: The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures is 10,600 - 11,800 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation has shifted slightly upward due to improved butadiene trading. The upper valuation limit for the market is 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical lower valuation limit is 10,600 yuan/ton [4] - **Butadiene Fundamentals**: Asian butadiene prices have rebounded slightly, and the domestic butadiene market has improved. Supply - side开工率 remains high, but the expectation of increased maintenance has risen. Short - term imports are limited, demand has increased, and inventories at production enterprises and ports have declined, strengthening price support [5] - **Cis - butadiene Fundamentals**: With the decline in the cost side, processing profits have increased, and the supply - side开工率 is expected to rise. Demand has significantly strengthened, and substitution demand supports the total demand. The inventory is at a relatively high level year - on - year, and the current fundamentals have a neutral driving force on synthetic rubber [5] - **Cis - butadiene Futures**: The fundamentals currently have a neutral driving force on cis - butadiene rubber. However, due to the previous sharp decline, the valuation provides some support. The market is expected to mainly fluctuate in the short - term, and future trends will depend on the fluctuations of crude oil and the rubber sector [6] 3.2 Butadiene Fundamentals - **Supply Side** - **Capacity Expansion**: Butadiene capacity has been expanding to match the growth of downstream industries, with the expansion rate and amplitude being slightly faster than that of downstream industries at certain stages [11] - **开工率 and Output**: The current开工率 remains high, and the output shows certain trends over time [12][13] - **Maintenance Situation**: Many enterprises have carried out or are planning maintenance, which will affect the supply [14] - **Import and Export**: Short - term imports are limited due to the small amount of ocean - going supplies [5] - **Demand Side** - **Capacity of Downstream Industries**: The capacities of cis - butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS are expanding, with specific new capacity additions in different years and regions [16][17][24][25][26] - **开工率 and Operation of Downstream Enterprises**: The开工率 of downstream enterprises shows different trends, and some enterprises have operation and maintenance plans [21][22][23] - **Inventory Side**: Butadiene production enterprise inventories and port inventories have both declined, and the short - term port inventory is expected to continue to decrease, strengthening price support [5] 3.3 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Cis - butadiene Rubber Supply** - **Output and开工率**: The output and开工率 show certain trends, and some enterprises have production and maintenance plans [36][37] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of cis - butadiene rubber production show different trends over time [38][39][40] - **Import and Export**: The import and export volumes of cis - butadiene rubber show certain trends [41][42] - **Inventory**: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is at a relatively high level year - on - year, including enterprise inventories, futures inventories, and trader inventories [46][47][48] - **Cis - butadiene Rubber Demand** - **Tire Demand**: The inventory and开工率 of tires (full - steel and semi - steel) in Shandong Province show certain trends, which affect the demand for cis - butadiene rubber [49][50]