1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber is expected to operate weakly within the valuation range in the short - term, with the upper pressure at 10,600 - 10,570 yuan/ton and the lower support at 9,800 - 9,900 yuan/ton. The NR - BR spread is expected to oscillate at a high level. The butadiene is expected to oscillate in the short - term and maintain a low - level oscillation in the medium - term [2][4] - The butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage, with a low correlation with the raw material end [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - This cycle, the output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 29,500 tons, a 4.76% increase from the previous cycle, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.53%, a 3.34 - percentage - point increase. Next cycle, Gaoqiao Petrochemical and Zhenhua New Materials are expected to resume production [4] - Some enterprises' production schedules are lower than normal levels, and some enterprises still have maintenance arrangements, which limit the increase in capacity utilization [4] 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of sample tire enterprises is expected to increase next cycle, but the increase is limited due to slow shipment and production control by enterprises. In terms of substitution demand, the NR - BR spread remains high, and the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of December 3, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 32,300 tons, a 0.34% decrease from the previous cycle. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, while that of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly [4] 3.1.4 Valuation - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 9,700 - 10,700 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has switched, with the NR - BR spread supporting the lower valuation and the cost line of butadiene also providing support. The upper valuation of the disk is around 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton [4] 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral: Operate weakly within the short - term fundamental valuation range, with upper pressure at 10,600 - 10,570 yuan/ton and lower support at 9,800 - 9,900 yuan/ton. Cross - variety: The NR - BR spread is at a high valuation and is expected to oscillate at a high level [4] 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - This cycle (20251128 - 1204), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 112,200 tons, a 0.80% decrease from the previous cycle. Next week, it is expected to be about 113,500 tons, an increase from this cycle [5] - Due to the high ethylene cracking start - up in China in the fourth quarter, the domestic butadiene output and imports are at a year - on - year high. However, the Asian regional start - up rate has declined, resulting in a slight reduction in butadiene supply [4] 3.2.2 Demand - In the medium - term, the start - up rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a year - on - year high. In the short - term, the rigid demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber is expected to increase in December. The demand from ABS is expected to remain constant, and that from SBS remains stable [4][7] 3.2.3 Inventory - This cycle (20251127 - 1203), the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples decreased by 7.41% from the previous week. The inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased by 13.11%. As of December 3, the latest inventory in East China ports was about 41,100 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from the previous cycle. The inventory is still at a relatively high level [7] 3.2.4 Viewpoint - In the short - term, the low absolute price drives downstream periodic restocking, the transaction improves, and the price stabilizes. The Asian butadiene start - up rate has declined slightly, and the fundamental pattern has improved marginally. In the medium - term, the high supply of butadiene remains the main contradiction, and the price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [5] 3.3 Capacity Expansion 3.3.1 Butadiene - In 2024, the total new capacity was 380,000 tons; in 2025, it was 940,000 tons; and it is expected to be 620,000 tons in 2026. The expansion speed and amplitude of butadiene are slightly faster than those of its downstream industries [12][14] 3.3.2 Downstream Products of Butadiene - **Butadiene Rubber**: The capacity increased by 200,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 190,000 tons in 2026 [20] - **Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: The capacity increased by 60,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 220,000 tons in 2026 [22][23] - **ABS**: The capacity is expected to increase by 1,635,000 tons in 2025 and 1,300,000 tons in 2026 [30][32] - **SBS**: The capacity increased by 360,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 55,000 tons in 2026 [34][35]

2025 年 11月 24 日 胶:估值区间内弱势运行 杨鉉汉 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 (01合约) | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) 成交量(手)。学 | 10. 385 167. 355 | 10.520 113, 304 | -135 54051 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 68, 247 | 72, 012 | -3765 | | | | 成交额(万元) | 877.067 | 600. 368 | 276699 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | 115 | ్లు 130 | -12 | | | 月差 | BR12-BR01 | -30 | -30 | 0 | | | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁(民营) | 10, 050 | 10. 150 | | | | | 华东顺丁(民营) | 10, 250 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: November 23, 2025 [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - **Synthetic Rubber**: Synthetic rubber is expected to operate weakly within the valuation range. The supply of high - cis butadiene rubber has increased, while the demand from the tire industry has limited improvement, and the inventory has increased. The valuation logic has shifted, and the mid - term strategy is to go short on rallies [2][4][6]. - **Butadiene**: Butadiene is expected to be in a short - term volatile and long - term weak trend. The supply pressure is the main contradiction, and the inventory has increased significantly [9]. Summary by Directory Synthetic Rubber Supply - This cycle, Zhejiang Petrochemical continued its shutdown for maintenance, and Zhenhua New Material's butadiene rubber unit restarted. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 29,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.88%. The capacity utilization rate was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.72 percentage points. Next cycle, Maoming Petrochemical's butadiene rubber unit is expected to shut down for maintenance [4]. Demand - **Tire Demand**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased. Next cycle, it is expected to recover, but the overall demand increase is limited. - **Substitute Demand**: The NR - BR main contract spread remains high, and the substitute demand is also high, so the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a year - on - year high growth rate [4]. Inventory - As of November 19, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 31,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.24%. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises changed slightly [5]. Valuation - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 9,700 - 10,700 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support to NR - BR spread support. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost [5]. Strategy - **Single - sided**: Adopt a mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies without chasing short positions. The upper pressure is 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 9,600 - 9,700 yuan/ton [6]. - **Cross - variety**: The NR - BR spread is at a high valuation and is expected to fluctuate at a high level [7]. Butadiene Supply - This cycle, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 115,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.67%. Next week, the output is expected to be about 115,000 tons, a slight decrease [9]. Demand - **Synthetic Rubber**: The mid - term operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a year - on - year high. In December, with the reduction of butadiene rubber unit maintenance, the rigid demand for butadiene is expected to increase. - **ABS**: The inventory pressure is high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited incremental demand. - **SBS**: The operating rate has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remains rigid with little change [11]. Inventory - From November 13 - 19, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased significantly, a week - on - week increase of 17.99%. The inventory of sample enterprises increased by 1.17%, and the inventory of sample ports increased by 37.24%. As of November 19, the inventory at East China ports was about 39,800 tons, an increase of 10,800 tons from the previous cycle [11]. View - In the short term, the low absolute price drives downstream periodic replenishment, the trading improves, and the price stabilizes. In the long term, the supply pressure is the main contradiction, and the fundamental pressure is still high, so it is expected to be in a weak pattern [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market shows a slight correction. The short - term trend of butadiene rubber is mainly range - bound, with the upside space narrowing. The macro - sentiment provides support, but the industrial chain fundamentals face significant pressure [1][3]. - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,000 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to fluctuate. The upper valuation limit of the market is around 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation limit is around 11,000 yuan/ton [1][3]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the butadiene rubber main contract (08 contract), the daily closing price decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 11,535 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 26,899 lots to 101,885 lots, the open interest decreased by 1,690 lots to 22,739 lots, and the trading volume increased by 155,996 ten - thousand yuan to 590,450 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong butadiene - futures main contract) increased by 90 to 115, the monthly spread (BR08 - BR09) increased by 35 to 55. The prices of North China, East China, and South China butadiene (private) were 11,400 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), 11,450 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 11,550 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [1]. - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,650 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 12,000 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) remained unchanged at 10,900 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 100 yuan/ton and 35 yuan/ton to 9,400 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate increased by 0.17% to 65.2894%, the theoretical full cost remained unchanged at 12,079 yuan/ton, and the profit remained unchanged at - 379 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,000 - 11,800 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation is expected to fluctuate due to the short - term improvement in butadiene trading. The upper valuation limit of the market is around 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation limit is around 11,000 yuan/ton [1][3]. - In the short term, butadiene rubber will mainly operate in a range - bound manner, with the upside space narrowing. The recent rebound in butadiene rubber futures prices is mainly driven by the improvement in macro - sentiment and the continuous rebound of crude oil, but the spot trading is light, and the fundamentals of the industrial chain face significant pressure [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].

Report Summary Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The report anticipates that synthetic rubber will experience short - term oscillatory movements. The fundamentals of the synthetic rubber industry, including both butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber, are currently in a neutral to slightly weak state, with no obvious trends in the short term [2][4]. Directory Summaries 1. Market Judgment - **Futures - end Static Valuation**: The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures is 11,200 - 11,800 yuan/ton. The upper valuation limit is around 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation limit is 11,200 yuan/ton [4]. - **Butadiene Fundamentals**: Asian butadiene prices remain stable, with a neutral domestic fundamental situation and prices oscillating around 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Supply is high, imports are neutral, demand is stable, production - enterprise inventories are rising, and port inventories are slightly declining [4]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to maintain a high year - on - year level and increase month - on - month. Demand remains high, and inventories are at a high year - on - year level. The fundamentals have a weak driving force, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Futures**: In the short term, with the temporary easing of the Middle East geopolitical situation and the rebound of natural rubber, the cis - butadiene rubber futures are expected to oscillate without an obvious trend [4]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral short - term oscillatory movement; the spread between NR - BR widens [4]. 2. Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity Expansion**: To match the expansion of downstream industries, butadiene capacity is continuously expanding, with a slightly faster pace than downstream industries at certain stages. In 2024, the new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [9][11]. - **Supply - side**: The industry's operating rate is at a high year - on - year level. With the resumption of some ethylene plants, the weekly output remains high. Some enterprises have maintenance plans, which will affect production [13][14][15]. - **Net Imports**: Short - term import volumes are neutral [4]. - **Demand - side**: - **Cis - Butadiene and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber Capacity**: New capacity has been put into operation in recent years, and more is expected in 2025 [19]. - **ABS and SBS Capacity**: There was significant capacity expansion in 2024 and 2025 [28]. - **Fundamentals**: ABS has stable operating rates, profits, and inventory levels. SBS has a certain capacity utilization rate [29][30]. - **Inventory - side**: Production - enterprise inventories are rising, and port inventories are slightly declining [4]. 3. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Supply**: - **Output**: The weekly output shows certain fluctuations, and the operating rate is expected to remain high [38]. - **Cost and Profit**: The processing profit is gradually returning to above the break - even line [4]. - **Imports and Exports**: Import and export volumes show historical trends [43][44]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise, futures, and trader inventories are at certain levels, with enterprise inventories at a high year - on - year level [48][49]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Demand - side**: - **Tire**: Shandong's all - steel tire inventory and domestic semi - steel and all - steel tire operating rates show historical trends [52][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The synthetic rubber market has support at the lower end but limited driving forces. The market for butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber is expected to be mainly fluctuating in the short - term, with cis - butadiene rubber showing support due to relatively low valuation despite a lack of fundamental drivers [2][4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Judgment - **Static and Dynamic Valuation of Cis - butadiene Rubber Futures**: The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures is 10,600 - 11,800 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation has shifted slightly upward due to improved butadiene trading. The upper valuation limit for the market is 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical lower valuation limit is 10,600 yuan/ton [4] - **Butadiene Fundamentals**: Asian butadiene prices have rebounded slightly, and the domestic butadiene market has improved. Supply - side开工率 remains high, but the expectation of increased maintenance has risen. Short - term imports are limited, demand has increased, and inventories at production enterprises and ports have declined, strengthening price support [5] - **Cis - butadiene Fundamentals**: With the decline in the cost side, processing profits have increased, and the supply - side开工率 is expected to rise. Demand has significantly strengthened, and substitution demand supports the total demand. The inventory is at a relatively high level year - on - year, and the current fundamentals have a neutral driving force on synthetic rubber [5] - **Cis - butadiene Futures**: The fundamentals currently have a neutral driving force on cis - butadiene rubber. However, due to the previous sharp decline, the valuation provides some support. The market is expected to mainly fluctuate in the short - term, and future trends will depend on the fluctuations of crude oil and the rubber sector [6] 3.2 Butadiene Fundamentals - **Supply Side** - **Capacity Expansion**: Butadiene capacity has been expanding to match the growth of downstream industries, with the expansion rate and amplitude being slightly faster than that of downstream industries at certain stages [11] - **开工率 and Output**: The current开工率 remains high, and the output shows certain trends over time [12][13] - **Maintenance Situation**: Many enterprises have carried out or are planning maintenance, which will affect the supply [14] - **Import and Export**: Short - term imports are limited due to the small amount of ocean - going supplies [5] - **Demand Side** - **Capacity of Downstream Industries**: The capacities of cis - butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS are expanding, with specific new capacity additions in different years and regions [16][17][24][25][26] - **开工率 and Operation of Downstream Enterprises**: The开工率 of downstream enterprises shows different trends, and some enterprises have operation and maintenance plans [21][22][23] - **Inventory Side**: Butadiene production enterprise inventories and port inventories have both declined, and the short - term port inventory is expected to continue to decrease, strengthening price support [5] 3.3 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Cis - butadiene Rubber Supply** - **Output and开工率**: The output and开工率 show certain trends, and some enterprises have production and maintenance plans [36][37] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of cis - butadiene rubber production show different trends over time [38][39][40] - **Import and Export**: The import and export volumes of cis - butadiene rubber show certain trends [41][42] - **Inventory**: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is at a relatively high level year - on - year, including enterprise inventories, futures inventories, and trader inventories [46][47][48] - **Cis - butadiene Rubber Demand** - **Tire Demand**: The inventory and开工率 of tires (full - steel and semi - steel) in Shandong Province show certain trends, which affect the demand for cis - butadiene rubber [49][50]