国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2026年01月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：高位震荡 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周合成橡胶观点：高位震荡 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 3 库存 估值 观点 供应 • 周期内茂名石化、独山子石化高顺顺丁橡胶装置延续停车，个别顺丁橡胶装置负荷提升，产能利用率达到绝对高位水平。本周期高顺顺丁橡胶产量在3.18 万吨，较上周期增加0.08万吨，环比+2.55%，产能利用率79.15%，环比提升1.97个百分点。周期内国内顺丁橡胶装置无重大变动，下周期预计国内顺丁装 置变动有限。 （隆众资讯） 需求 • 刚需方面，。周内部分企业仍处于"元旦"假期停工检修状态，4号左右逐步复工，周内多数时间排产未能正常运行，拖拽整体产能利用率继续走低。周 期内出货缓慢，去库节奏不及预期。预计下周期轮胎样本企业产能利用率将恢复性提升，随着检修企业 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2026年01月04日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周合成橡胶观点：短期中枢上移，中期步入震荡 综述：短期中枢上移，中期步入震荡 供应 • 2026年1月份中国顺丁橡胶预计产量15.37万吨，较2025年12月份预期增长1.01万吨。截至撰稿当日，隆众资讯统计到未来一个月内共1套装置计划检修，涉 及年加工能力10万吨/年。既定检修计划仅茂名石化一家，部分其他装置检修计划有取消迹象，另外独山子石化3万吨高顺顺丁橡胶装置2026年计划常年 停车。（隆众资讯） • 目前顺丁橡胶期货基本面静态估值区间为10700-11700元/吨。由于期货交易丁二烯强预期，期货升水现货，静态估值上沿阶段性失效。估值逻辑发生切换， 从成本端对下方估值形成支撑，转变为NR-BR价差对下方估值形成支撑。下方估值而言，有两条估值逻辑。逻辑一为NR-BR价差逻辑，2024年四季度nr- ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2026年01月04日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：短期中枢上移，中期步入震荡 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周合成橡胶观点：短期中枢上移，中期步入震荡 供应 • 2026年1月份中国顺丁橡胶预计产量15.37万吨，较2025年12月份预期增长1.01万吨。截至撰稿当日，隆众资讯统计到未来一个月内共1套装置计划检修，涉 及年加工能力10万吨/年。既定检修计划仅茂名石化一家，部分其他装置检修计划有取消迹象，另外独山子石化3万吨高顺顺丁橡胶装置2026年计划常年 停车。（隆众资讯） • 目前顺丁橡胶期货基本面静态估值区间为10700-11700元/吨。由于期货交易丁二烯强预期，期货升水现货，静态估值上沿阶段性失效。估值逻辑发生切换， 从成本端对下方估值形成支撑，转变为NR-BR价差对下方估值形成支撑。下方估值而言，有两条估值逻辑。逻辑一为NR-BR价差逻辑，2024年四季度nr- ...

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: December 28, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Synthetic rubber is expected to remain at a high level before the holiday. The price center of butadiene rubber has moved up, but the weakening near - term fundamentals suppress the upward elasticity of the price. Butadiene is expected to rebound in the short - term but face high supply pressure in the medium - term [4][5] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Synthetic Rubber Viewpoint - **Supply**: During the cycle, the high - cis butadiene rubber units of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical continued to be shut down, while other mainstream units operated stably. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 30,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.065%. The capacity utilization rate was 76.76%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points. It is expected that there will be limited changes in domestic butadiene rubber units in the next cycle [4] - **Demand** - **Rigid demand**: The capacity utilization rates of tire sample enterprises showed mixed trends. The production scheduling of most semi - steel tire enterprises was stable, and some enterprises increased production slightly. Some all - steel tire enterprises carried out maintenance, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises may still decline in the next cycle [4] - **Substitute demand**: The spread between the NR - BR main contracts remained at a high level, and the substitute demand remained strong. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintained a high year - on - year growth rate [4] - **Inventory**: As of December 24, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 34,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.56%. The price center of butadiene rubber rose slightly this cycle. The market transactions were concentrated in low - price purchases by arbitrageurs. Traders were cautious about raising prices, while terminal purchases remained weak. The inventory level of sample production enterprises increased, and the inventory of some trading enterprises decreased [4] - **Valuation**: The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 10,700 - 11,500 yuan/ton. Due to the strong expectation of butadiene in futures trading, the upper limit of the static valuation fails periodically. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support to NR - BR spread support [4] - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: The short - term oscillation center moves up. The upper pressure is 11,500 - 11,600 yuan/ton (moving up dynamically following the spot price of butadiene rubber), and the lower support is 10,700 - 10,800 yuan/ton (supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost) [5] - **Cross - variety**: The NR - BR spread gradually changes from narrowing to an oscillatory pattern [5] 2. This Week's Butadiene Viewpoint - **Supply**: The estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises in this cycle was 112,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09%. It is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises next week will be about 113,400 tons, mainly due to the resumption of production at Dongming Petrochemical [7] - **Inventory**: In this cycle, domestic butadiene inventory increased. The total inventory of samples increased by 10.06% week - on - week. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 1.06% week - on - week, and the inventory of sample ports increased by 20.28% week - on - week. There were imported ships arriving at the port this week, and there are still expectations of ocean - going ships arriving at the port later [7] - **Demand** - **Synthetic rubber**: In the medium - term, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber will remain high, and the demand for butadiene will remain high year - on - year. In the short - term, with the decrease in butadiene rubber unit maintenance in December, the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber is expected to increase [9] - **ABS**: The inventory pressure is relatively high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain at a constant level with limited incremental growth [9] - **SBS**: The operating rate increased slightly, and the rigid demand for butadiene remained stable with limited changes [9] - **Viewpoint**: The relatively low short - term absolute price drives downstream periodic restocking, and the transactions have improved. In addition, the prices of butadiene in Asia and Europe are relatively strong. Overall, butadiene will rebound in the short - term but face high supply pressure in the medium - term [7] 3. Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, the capacity of butadiene is also expanding continuously, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries in stages [14][16] - **Supply - side** - **Operating rate**: Data shows the weekly operating rate and production volume trends of butadiene in China from 2019 - 2025 [18] - **Maintenance situation**: Multiple enterprises have carried out or are planning to carry out unit maintenance, involving different maintenance capacities and time periods [19] - **Net import volume**: Data presents the monthly import volume, net import volume, and import profit of butadiene in China from 2008 - 2025 [20] - **Demand - side** - **Butadiene rubber**: The capacity will increase by 200,000 tons in 2025 and 190,000 tons in 2026 [22] - **Styrene - butadiene rubber**: The capacity will increase by 60,000 tons in 2025 and 220,000 tons in 2026 [24][25] - **ABS**: The capacity is expected to increase by 1.635 million tons in 2025 and 1.3 million tons in 2026 [32][34] - **SBS**: The capacity will increase by 360,000 tons in 2025 and 55,000 tons in 2026 [36][37] - **Inventory - side**: Data shows the weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory trends of butadiene in China from 2015 - 2025 [41][42][43] 4. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply** - **Production**: Data shows the weekly production and daily operating rate trends of high - cis butadiene rubber in China from 2020 - 2025. Some enterprises' units are in normal operation, while some are under maintenance or restarting [47][48] - **Cost and profit**: Data shows the daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin trends of butadiene rubber in China from 2015 - 2025 [49][50][51] - **Import and export**: Data presents the monthly import and export volume and weekly apparent demand trends of butadiene rubber in China from 2015 - 2025 [52][53][54] - **Inventory**: Data shows the weekly enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory trends of butadiene rubber in China from 2015 - 2025 [56][57] - **Butadiene Rubber - Demand - Tire**: Data shows the inventory and operating rate trends of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province from 2018 - 2025 [60][61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the synthetic rubber industry chain is expected to see a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The butadiene rubber futures will experience a volatile pattern throughout the year, with a focus on trading opportunities in different phases. In Q1, it is expected to be mainly volatile; in Q2 and Q3, the price center may move up; in Q4, it is expected to face pressure. From Q2 to early Q3, the average NR - BR spread may shrink, and from late Q3 to Q4, it may widen [3]. - The pricing of butadiene rubber in 2026 will still be mainly based on cost (butadiene) and supplemented by supply - demand factors. The butadiene market is expected to be in a pattern of increasing supply and demand with wide - range fluctuations. In the first half of the year, there is no new capacity expansion, and in Q2, supply may tighten due to seasonal maintenance of ethylene plants, which will support the price. In the second half of the year, with the return of ethylene plant maintenance and new capacity expansion, supply may increase, putting pressure on the price [4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 2026 H2 Synthetic Rubber Trend Review 3.1.1 Q3: Macro - rhythm as the trading mainline under a neutral fundamental pattern - For butadiene, it showed a pattern of increasing supply and demand in Q3. Domestic production remained high due to the return of ethylene plant maintenance, and imports increased from August to September. Downstream factories maintained rigid demand, so the price did not fluctuate significantly [9]. - For butadiene rubber, it also maintained a pattern of increasing supply and demand in Q3. Due to the increased substitution demand for natural rubber, the spot price showed strong resilience. The macro - rhythm was the main factor affecting the futures price. In July, it rose with the macro - sentiment; in August, it回调 as the market became more rational; in September, it rose as the market traded the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, with the main contract price reaching over 12,200 yuan/ton [9][10]. 3.1.2 Q4: Increasing fundamental contradictions in the synthetic rubber industry chain and a downward price center - For butadiene, supply growth exceeded demand growth in Q4. With high - level operation of global ethylene plants and continuous arrival of ocean - going cargoes, domestic supply increased significantly. Downstream industries were under pressure, and the price dropped by more than 20% [17]. - For butadiene rubber, although it maintained a pattern of increasing supply and demand, the lack of further increase in substitution demand for natural rubber led to only valuation support for its price. With high - level inventory of production enterprises, the price decreased in line with butadiene, with a decline of about 20% [18]. 3.2 2026 Butadiene Rubber Pricing Logic Expectation - In 2026, butadiene rubber is expected to continue the pricing logic of being mainly based on cost and supplemented by supply - demand factors, similar to 2025. Before 2024 Q3, it was mainly priced by butadiene cost. From 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q4, due to the weakening of butadiene fundamentals and the relatively stronger Thai glue, the substitution demand for natural rubber supported the price of butadiene rubber, and the trading logic became more diversified [19]. 3.3 Cost End: Butadiene in 2026 3.3.1 Supply Side - In 2026, butadiene production capacity is expected to expand from 757.7 million tons in 2025 to 819.7 million tons, with an expansion rate of about 8.2%. There is no new capacity in the first half of the year, and new capacity is mainly concentrated in Q4 [29]. - In 2025, the butadiene operating rate was high in Q1, decreased in Q2 due to maintenance, and rebounded in H2. In 2026, it is expected that the operating rate will be low in the first half of the year due to maintenance and increase in the second half. As a result, domestic production may decrease slightly in the first half and increase in the second half [31][34]. - In 2025, butadiene imports increased significantly compared with 2024, mainly concentrated in Q1 and Q3. In 2026, due to domestic capacity expansion and potential supply contraction in Europe and Asia, annual imports may decline slightly, and exports may increase slightly. From February to June 2026, imports may decline month - on - month, increase in Q3, and decline again in Q4 [45][46]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - The demand for butadiene from butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber is expected to increase in 2026. The design capacity of butadiene rubber is expected to increase from 212.2 million tons in 2025 to 231.2 million tons in 2026, with a growth rate of about 8.95%. The design capacity of styrene - butadiene rubber is expected to increase from 171.5 million tons in 2025 to 193.5 million tons in 2026, with a growth rate of 12.82% [50]. - The demand for butadiene from ABS and SBS also increased in 2025. In 2026, the ABS design capacity is expected to increase from 1020 million tons to 1150 million tons, with a growth rate of about 12.74%. The SBS capacity expansion was mainly in Q4 2025. In 2026, the demand for butadiene from these two sectors is still expected to have an increase [64][65]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis: Butadiene Rubber in 2026 3.4.1 Supply Side - The butadiene rubber industry has high supply elasticity. In 2025, the operating rate and production showed significant fluctuations according to profit. In 2026, it is expected to maintain high - level production and supply elasticity. The production is expected to increase compared with 2025, but the growth rate will decline. Inventory is expected to continue to rise slowly [74][76][77]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - In 2025, the demand for butadiene rubber increased. In 2026, the demand is still expected to increase, but the growth rate will decline. For tire demand, domestic demand is expected to increase but at a slower pace due to policy adjustments. Export demand is expected to grow but the growth rate will decline due to EU's anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations. The substitution demand for natural rubber is expected to increase but at a significantly slower rate [85][86][87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekly synthesis rubber report suggests that the oscillation center has shifted upwards, with the supply of high - cis butadiene rubber decreasing this week and the demand maintaining a year - on - year high growth rate. The inventory has slightly decreased, and the valuation logic has changed. The short - term trading logic is diversified, and the price center has shifted upwards [2][4]. - The weekly butadiene report indicates that butadiene has rebounded in the short term. The supply is expected to remain stable, the demand from synthetic rubber is high, and the inventory is in a destocking state [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Butadiene Fundamentals - Pricing stage: Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage, with a low correlation to the raw material end [8]. - Capacity expansion: To match the expansion of downstream industries, butadiene capacity is continuously expanding, with the speed and amplitude slightly faster than that of downstream industries in some stages. In 2024, the new capacity was 380,000 tons; in 2025, 940,000 tons; and it is expected to be 620,000 tons in 2026 [10][12]. - Supply - side: - Production: This cycle (20251205 - 1211), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises was 113,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.08%. Next week, it is expected to be around 113,400 tons, with limited fluctuations [5]. - Operating rate: The operating rate has fluctuated, and some enterprises have carried out maintenance [14][15]. - Net imports: The data shows the monthly import and net import volume trends of butadiene in China [16]. - Demand - side: - Cis - butadiene rubber: The capacity increased by 200,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 190,000 tons in 2026 [18]. - Styrene - butadiene rubber: The capacity increased by 60,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 220,000 tons in 2026. The operating rate and maintenance situation of some enterprises are provided [20][21][27]. - ABS: The capacity is expected to increase by 1.635 million tons in 2025 and 1.3 million tons in 2026 [28][30]. - SBS: The capacity increased by 360,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 55,000 tons in 2026 [32][33]. - ABS and SBS fundamentals: The operating rate, profit, and inventory data of ABS and SBS are presented [35][36]. - Inventory - side: The weekly enterprise, port, and total inventory data of butadiene show the inventory trends over the years [37][38][39]. 3.2 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - Cis - butadiene rubber: - Supply: - Production: This week, the output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 28,400 tons, a decrease of 0.11 tons compared to the previous cycle, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.87%. The capacity utilization rate was 70.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.84 percentage points [4]. - Cost and profit: The daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin data over the years are provided [45][46][47]. - Import and export: The monthly import and export volume data of cis - butadiene rubber are presented [48][49]. - Inventory: The weekly enterprise, trader, and futures inventory data of cis - butadiene rubber show the inventory trends [52][53]. - Demand: The inventory and operating rate data of Shandong Province's all - steel and semi - steel tires are provided, reflecting the demand situation of cis - butadiene rubber in the tire industry [56][57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber is expected to operate weakly within the valuation range in the short - term, with the upper pressure at 10,600 - 10,570 yuan/ton and the lower support at 9,800 - 9,900 yuan/ton. The NR - BR spread is expected to oscillate at a high level. The butadiene is expected to oscillate in the short - term and maintain a low - level oscillation in the medium - term [2][4] - The butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage, with a low correlation with the raw material end [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - This cycle, the output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 29,500 tons, a 4.76% increase from the previous cycle, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.53%, a 3.34 - percentage - point increase. Next cycle, Gaoqiao Petrochemical and Zhenhua New Materials are expected to resume production [4] - Some enterprises' production schedules are lower than normal levels, and some enterprises still have maintenance arrangements, which limit the increase in capacity utilization [4] 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of sample tire enterprises is expected to increase next cycle, but the increase is limited due to slow shipment and production control by enterprises. In terms of substitution demand, the NR - BR spread remains high, and the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of December 3, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 32,300 tons, a 0.34% decrease from the previous cycle. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, while that of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly [4] 3.1.4 Valuation - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 9,700 - 10,700 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has switched, with the NR - BR spread supporting the lower valuation and the cost line of butadiene also providing support. The upper valuation of the disk is around 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton [4] 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral: Operate weakly within the short - term fundamental valuation range, with upper pressure at 10,600 - 10,570 yuan/ton and lower support at 9,800 - 9,900 yuan/ton. Cross - variety: The NR - BR spread is at a high valuation and is expected to oscillate at a high level [4] 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - This cycle (20251128 - 1204), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 112,200 tons, a 0.80% decrease from the previous cycle. Next week, it is expected to be about 113,500 tons, an increase from this cycle [5] - Due to the high ethylene cracking start - up in China in the fourth quarter, the domestic butadiene output and imports are at a year - on - year high. However, the Asian regional start - up rate has declined, resulting in a slight reduction in butadiene supply [4] 3.2.2 Demand - In the medium - term, the start - up rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a year - on - year high. In the short - term, the rigid demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber is expected to increase in December. The demand from ABS is expected to remain constant, and that from SBS remains stable [4][7] 3.2.3 Inventory - This cycle (20251127 - 1203), the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples decreased by 7.41% from the previous week. The inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased by 13.11%. As of December 3, the latest inventory in East China ports was about 41,100 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons from the previous cycle. The inventory is still at a relatively high level [7] 3.2.4 Viewpoint - In the short - term, the low absolute price drives downstream periodic restocking, the transaction improves, and the price stabilizes. The Asian butadiene start - up rate has declined slightly, and the fundamental pattern has improved marginally. In the medium - term, the high supply of butadiene remains the main contradiction, and the price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [5] 3.3 Capacity Expansion 3.3.1 Butadiene - In 2024, the total new capacity was 380,000 tons; in 2025, it was 940,000 tons; and it is expected to be 620,000 tons in 2026. The expansion speed and amplitude of butadiene are slightly faster than those of its downstream industries [12][14] 3.3.2 Downstream Products of Butadiene - **Butadiene Rubber**: The capacity increased by 200,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 190,000 tons in 2026 [20] - **Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: The capacity increased by 60,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 220,000 tons in 2026 [22][23] - **ABS**: The capacity is expected to increase by 1,635,000 tons in 2025 and 1,300,000 tons in 2026 [30][32] - **SBS**: The capacity increased by 360,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 55,000 tons in 2026 [34][35]

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: November 23, 2025 [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - **Synthetic Rubber**: Synthetic rubber is expected to operate weakly within the valuation range. The supply of high - cis butadiene rubber has increased, while the demand from the tire industry has limited improvement, and the inventory has increased. The valuation logic has shifted, and the mid - term strategy is to go short on rallies [2][4][6]. - **Butadiene**: Butadiene is expected to be in a short - term volatile and long - term weak trend. The supply pressure is the main contradiction, and the inventory has increased significantly [9]. Summary by Directory Synthetic Rubber Supply - This cycle, Zhejiang Petrochemical continued its shutdown for maintenance, and Zhenhua New Material's butadiene rubber unit restarted. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 29,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.88%. The capacity utilization rate was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.72 percentage points. Next cycle, Maoming Petrochemical's butadiene rubber unit is expected to shut down for maintenance [4]. Demand - **Tire Demand**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased. Next cycle, it is expected to recover, but the overall demand increase is limited. - **Substitute Demand**: The NR - BR main contract spread remains high, and the substitute demand is also high, so the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a year - on - year high growth rate [4]. Inventory - As of November 19, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 31,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.24%. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises changed slightly [5]. Valuation - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 9,700 - 10,700 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support to NR - BR spread support. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost [5]. Strategy - **Single - sided**: Adopt a mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies without chasing short positions. The upper pressure is 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 9,600 - 9,700 yuan/ton [6]. - **Cross - variety**: The NR - BR spread is at a high valuation and is expected to fluctuate at a high level [7]. Butadiene Supply - This cycle, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 115,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.67%. Next week, the output is expected to be about 115,000 tons, a slight decrease [9]. Demand - **Synthetic Rubber**: The mid - term operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a year - on - year high. In December, with the reduction of butadiene rubber unit maintenance, the rigid demand for butadiene is expected to increase. - **ABS**: The inventory pressure is high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited incremental demand. - **SBS**: The operating rate has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remains rigid with little change [11]. Inventory - From November 13 - 19, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased significantly, a week - on - week increase of 17.99%. The inventory of sample enterprises increased by 1.17%, and the inventory of sample ports increased by 37.24%. As of November 19, the inventory at East China ports was about 39,800 tons, an increase of 10,800 tons from the previous cycle [11]. View - In the short term, the low absolute price drives downstream periodic replenishment, the trading improves, and the price stabilizes. In the long term, the supply pressure is the main contradiction, and the fundamental pressure is still high, so it is expected to be in a weak pattern [9].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market is expected to face pressure and remain volatile. The supply of high - cis butadiene rubber is increasing, while the demand from tire manufacturers is expected to decline. The substitution demand remains high, but the overall inventory has increased. In the short - term, after a rebound, the market will return to a volatile and pressured pattern. [2][3][4] - The butadiene market is currently in a state of supply - demand pricing, with a low correlation with the raw material end. In the short - term, it will be volatile, but in the medium - long term, it is expected to be in a weak pattern due to high supply pressure. [5][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Butadiene - **Supply** - In the current cycle (20251107 - 1113), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises was 11.15 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 million tons (+2.05%). Next week, the output is expected to reach about 11.55 million tons. [5] - From 2024 to 2025, many new butadiene production capacities have been put into operation, with a total of 38 million tons in 2024 and 86 million tons in 2025. [10][12] - There are many device maintenance plans from 2024 to 2025, which will affect the supply in different periods. [16] - **Demand** - In the medium - term, the high operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber maintain a high year - on - year demand for butadiene. In the short - term, with the maintenance of butadiene rubber plants in November, the rigid demand procurement is expected to decline. [5] - The inventory pressure of ABS is relatively large, and its demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited growth. The operating rate of SBS has increased slightly, maintaining rigid demand for butadiene. [5] - **Inventory** - From 20251107 - 1112, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples continued to fluctuate slightly, with a week - on - week increase of 0.42%. The inventory of sample enterprises increased by 3.30% week - on - week, while the port inventory decreased by 2.68% week - on - week. There are still expectations of relatively concentrated ship arrivals in the later period. [5] 3.2 Synthetic Rubber (High - Cis Butadiene Rubber) - **Supply** - In the current cycle, the production capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber has recovered. The output in this cycle was 2.80 million tons, an increase of 0.16 million tons (+5.92%) compared with last week, and the production capacity utilization rate was 69.92%, a week - on - week increase of 3.90 percentage points. [4] - Some devices are planned for maintenance in the future, which may affect the supply situation. [4] - **Demand** - In terms of rigid demand, the production capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to decline further. In terms of substitution demand, the spread between NR - BR main contracts remains high, and the substitution demand is also high, so the overall demand side maintains a high year - on - year growth rate. [4] - **Inventory** - As of November 12, 2025, the domestic high - cis butadiene rubber inventory was 3.08 million tons, an increase of 0.15 million tons (+5.22%) compared with the previous cycle. The inventory of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises has increased. [4] - **Valuation** - The current static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 9700 - 10600 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - end support to NR - BR spread support. [4] - **Strategy** - For unilateral trading, adopt a medium - term short - selling approach on rallies, and avoid chasing short positions. The intraday trading may show wide - range fluctuations due to capital games. The upper pressure is 10500 - 10600 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 9600 - 9700 yuan/ton. - For cross - variety trading, the NR - BR spread is at a high level and is expected to fluctuate at a high level. [4]

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: November 9, 2025 - Report Author: Yang Honghan - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core View - The short - term trend of synthetic rubber is volatile, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The production capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber decreased. In the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended, without chasing short positions. The nr - br spread is expected to oscillate at a high level [2][4]. - Butadiene is in a weak operating state. In the short term, the low absolute price drives downstream replenishment, leading to improved trading and price stabilization. In the medium - long term, supply pressure remains the primary contradiction, and the fundamentals are still under significant pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - During the cycle, the butadiene rubber plants of Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Zhenhua New Materials were shut down for maintenance, while the butadiene rubber plant of Sichuan Petrochemical restarted. The production capacity utilization rate further declined. The output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 26,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.31%, and the production capacity utilization rate was 66.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.88 percentage points. It is expected that Yangzi Petrochemical's butadiene rubber plant will restart in the next cycle, and the Maoming butadiene plant and Zhejiang Transfar's 120,000 - ton/year rare - earth butadiene rubber plant are scheduled for maintenance at the end of November and in December respectively [4]. 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the production capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased slightly during the cycle. It is expected that the production capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will remain stable with a slight downward trend in the next cycle. The production of most enterprises will remain stable to meet order demands, but it is reported that some enterprises have maintenance plans in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall production capacity utilization rate. In terms of alternative demand, the current spread between the nr - br main contracts remains high, and the alternative demand also remains at a high level. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [5]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of November 5, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 29,300 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 5.15%. During the cycle, the supply of raw material butadiene was sufficient, and the negotiation focus continued to decline. Under the continuous negative drag of the cost side, industry players generally had a clear expectation of the continuous decline of the recent market. Downstream price - pressing procurement led to a significant decline in the negotiation focus of private resources. At the same time, the output was affected by the maintenance of some production enterprises, the circulating supply of goods was limited, resulting in the spot offer being significantly higher than that of private resources, and the sales performance was blocked. The inventories of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises both decreased [5]. 3.1.4 Valuation - Currently, the static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 9,500 - 10,400 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support for the lower - end valuation to the nr - br spread providing support for the lower - end valuation. For the upper - end valuation, 10,300 - 10,400 yuan/ton on the futures market may be the high point of the fundamental upper - end valuation. When the main contract BR2501 has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the market price in Shandong (the single - month holding cost is around 90 yuan/ton), there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity of holding spot and shorting futures on the market, and hedging positions will gradually increase the pressure on the upside space of the futures market [5]. 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - In the current cycle (from October 31 to November 6, 2025), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 109,200 tons, an increase of 5,100 tons from the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 4.85%. During the week, the plants of Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, Guangzhou Petrochemical, and Zhenhai Refining & Chemical remained shut down, but the plants of Jilin Petrochemical Phase I, Fushun Petrochemical, and Sichuan Petrochemical resumed production, resulting in a continuous increase in output. Next week, it is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be around 112,500 tons, continuing to increase from the current cycle. There are no new plant shutdown and maintenance plans in the next cycle, and the previously restarted plants will stably release output, leading to a continuous recovery of the output of domestic operating plants. At the same time, pay close attention to the output of Guangxi Petrochemical [6]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the medium - term operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, as butadiene plants undergo maintenance in November, it is expected that the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber procurement will decrease. In the ABS sector, the inventory pressure is relatively high, and it is expected that the demand for butadiene will only be maintained at a constant level, with limited incremental demand. In the SBS sector, the operating rate has slightly increased, and the rigid demand for butadiene procurement remains unchanged [8]. 3.2.3 Inventory - In the current cycle (from October 30 to November 6, 2025), the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples fluctuated slightly, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.67% from last week. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises increased by 3.71% month - on - month compared with last week. During the cycle, some plants resumed production, and at the same time, the significant decline in the market led to a slowdown in the trading rhythm, resulting in inventory accumulation for some suppliers. The inventory of sample ports decreased by 6.88% month - on - month compared with last week. Although there were imported vessels arriving at the port during the week, the normal consumption of downstream raw material inventories led to a decrease in the inventory of sample ports. Although the short - term tradable supply is limited, the import volume remains high, and merchants' sentiment remains cautious. Pay attention to future inventory changes [8].