国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2026年03月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：偏强运行 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周合成橡胶观点：地缘加剧，偏强运行 | | • | 本周期多数顺丁橡胶装置维持高负荷运行，仅山东个别顺丁橡胶装置负荷略有下降。此外，浩普新材料、浙江传化顺丁橡胶装置预计3月将进行检修。周 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | | 期内多数装置正常运行，山东益华顺丁橡胶装置负荷略降，振华新材料维持降负运行。下周期主流顺丁橡胶装置暂无较大变动，产能利用率预计仅微幅 下降。 （隆众资讯） | | | • | 刚需方面，。周期内轮胎样本企业产能利用率环比上周期明显提升，上周期正值春节假期，多数企业停产放假，产能利用率处于年内低点。节后多家轮 | | 需求 | | 胎企业在2月22日（正月初六）至2月24日（正月初八）陆续复工，个别企业在2月19日（正月初三）复工，排产处于逐步 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, A-shares are likely to have a restorative rebound. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the prices of various commodities have different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Before the holiday, the A-share market adjusted significantly due to the rise of risk aversion. During the holiday, the Hong Kong stock market rebounded, and technology sectors such as AI and robotics attracted wide attention. It is expected that A-shares will have a restorative rebound after the holiday [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. Attention should be paid to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1]. Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the copper price may fluctuate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Aluminum**: The macro situation is mixed, and the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short term. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, and there are disturbances in the supply of a large alumina enterprise in North China. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price [1]. - **Zinc**: The negotiation between the United States and Iran has reached a deadlock, which has led to concerns about the supply of Iranian zinc mines and supported the zinc price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of downstream enterprises after the holiday [1]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel price rose slightly during the holiday. Although the tailings landslide in the Indonesian QMB project has limited actual impact, there are still concerns about nickel ore supply. The nickel price will fluctuate strongly in the short term and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. Attention should be paid to changes in Indonesian policies and macro sentiment. In the long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price and control risks [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel-iron price remains firm, the spot transaction of stainless steel is weak, the social inventory has increased slightly, and the steel mills' maintenance and production reduction have increased in February. The stainless steel futures will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday. It is recommended to go long at a low price in the short term and control risks [1]. - **Tin**: The uncertainty of recent macro events is relatively large. Under the influence of US tariffs and geopolitics, the short-term volatility of the tin price may increase. Although the long-term trend of the tin price remains unchanged, investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection in the short term [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The judgment of the Supreme Court that the "IEEPA tariff" is illegal and Trump's new tariff policy have intensified market concerns about uncertainty. Coupled with the escalation of the geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran, the demand for hedging has supported the price of precious metals. The macro situation is favorable for platinum, and the balance expectation of palladium may improve, which may further support the palladium price in the short term [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The data of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 to 20 showed a double decline in production and exports. The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded and then faced pressure during the holiday and is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean oil has risen under the influence of biodiesel and crude oil prices. The domestic soybean oil may open higher but lacks new driving forces for the time being. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Rapeseed**: The ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the holiday and may be affected by US biodiesel and potential domestic import demand. Attention should be paid to the release of the EPA biodiesel policy and the anti-dumping arbitration announcement of Canadian rapeseed in China [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic new cotton crop has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream startup rate remains low, but the inventory of spinning mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, weather during the planting period, and the peak demand season from March to April [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new sugar supply is increasing. The short-selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market [1]. - **Corn**: After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of on-the-ground grain in the production areas. However, the quality of Northeast grain is relatively dry this year, and the selling pressure is expected to be limited under the support of the rigid replenishment demand of the middle and lower reaches. In addition, attention should be paid to the release of policy grain and the implementation of import restrictions after the holiday. The overall expectation is to maintain range fluctuations [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US tariff policy has changed during the holiday, but the external market fluctuated little, which has limited guidance for the domestic soybean meal market. The Brazilian soybean premium has declined, and the soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to Sino-US trade dynamics and Brazilian selling pressure in the near future [1]. - **Coniferous Pulp**: There is no obvious positive news for coniferous pulp during the Spring Festival. The previous positive factors on the supply side have basically faded. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory after the holiday [1]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs has risen, the log arrivals in February have decreased, and the external quotation is expected to rise. The futures market has an upward driving force [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and the sentiment in the commodity market has cooled down. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material cost has strong support, the sentiment in the commodity market is changeable, the risk appetite of funds has decreased, the downstream demand has weakened before the holiday, and the basis difference has expanded to the high level of the same period [1]. - **Butadiene**: The cost end of butadiene has strong support, the overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term domestic butadiene export expectation. The profit of private cis-butadiene plants has remained in a loss state recently, and the expectation of maintenance and load reduction has increased. The downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. The butadiene market is in a state of destocking, and the high inventory of cis-butadiene is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of cis-butadiene before the Spring Festival and the trading performance of the butadiene market. The short-term market is expected to fluctuate widely, and the BR still has an upward expectation in the long term [1]. - **PX**: The PX-mixed xylene price difference has narrowed to $150, which is still enough to support PX manufacturers to purchase mixed xylene as raw materials. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high-level correction, and there are still risks of crude oil prices due to the Iranian geopolitical risk. The downstream PTA industry continues to be strong, and the domestic PTA output in January is expected to reach a new high, and there is no plan to reduce production during the Spring Festival, and there is no new PTA production capacity throughout the year [1]. - **Ethylene**: The production profit rate of naphtha cracking has declined due to the rise in raw material prices. The price difference between ethylene and naphtha has reached $83. Several Korean ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of their cracking devices in February. The ethylene glycol price is waiting at a low level [1]. - **Styrene**: The high inventory of pure benzene has weak import demand, and the price difference between the United States and Asia is $88, which is not enough to open the arbitrage window. The Asian styrene price and economic situation have recovered, mainly driven by supply tightening, unexpected shutdowns in the Middle East, surging export demand, and rising cost ends. The continuous strong export, short-term supply gap caused by domestic maintenance, and speculative buying driven by chemical futures support the firmness of the spot price [1]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is generally affected by the Iranian situation, and the future import is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The leading MTO device has stopped, and some enterprises have reduced production, but the Fude plant restarted on January 25. The Iranian situation has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. The freight has risen due to the cold air in the inland area, and the inventory pressure of enterprises in the northwest has increased, and they have reduced prices to sell goods [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, there will be less global production, and the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. The future expectation is relatively optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor, and the export rush has slowed down stage by stage [1]. - **LPG**: The CP price in February has risen, and the purchase in March is still relatively tight. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has cooled down, and the short-term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave has gradually slowed down, and the market expectation is weakening. It is expected that the basis will gradually expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short-term demand side of LPG is bearish, which suppresses the upward movement of the market. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing, but the domestic civil gas is relatively sufficient, showing a divergence between propane and PG [1]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The freight rate peaked and fell before the holiday. Airlines are still cautious about tentative resume flights. Airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off-season in March [1].

Report Title - Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] Report Date - February 8, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the shock center of synthetic rubber moves down, while there is support in the medium - term [2][4] - The short - term of butadiene has limited drivers and will fall from a high level, with support in the medium - term [8][9] Summary by Directory Synthetic Rubber Supply - This cycle, the output of high - cis butadiene rubber is 31,700 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 3.25%, and the capacity utilization rate is 78.86%, a month - on - month increase of 2.48 percentage points. Next cycle, it is expected that the butadiene rubber plants of Yangzi Petrochemical and Shandong Yihua will resume normal production, and the capacity utilization rate will increase [4] - As of February 4, 2026, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 33,100 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 3.78% [7] Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises decreased to varying degrees this week. Next cycle, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will further decline. The overall decline of the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises will be greater than that of semi - steel tire enterprises [7] - In terms of alternative demand, the spread between the main contracts of NR - BR has turned from positive to negative, and it is expected that the alternative demand for synthetic rubber will gradually weaken [7] Valuation - The static valuation range of the butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 12,300 - 13,200 yuan/ton. The speculative nature has weakened, and the upward valuation pressure has gradually increased. The effective support level is the cost line of butadiene rubber, and butadiene is expected to support the butadiene price from the cost side [4] Strategy - Unilateral: After over - buying, short on rallies according to the valuation; the upper pressure is 13,200 - 13,300 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 12,500 - 12,600 yuan/ton (supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost) - Cross - variety: The NR - BR spread gradually enters a low - level shock, and it is recommended to pay attention to the position of widening the spread later [6] Butadiene Supply - This cycle (January 30 - February 5, 2026), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises is 116,500 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 2.61%. Next week, it is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be about 119,500 tons, continuing to increase compared with this cycle [10] Demand - In the medium - term, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene remains at a year - on - year high. In the short - term, with the decrease of butadiene rubber plant overhauls, it is expected that the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber will remain high [10] - In the ABS sector, the inventory pressure is relatively large, and it is expected that the demand for butadiene will only maintain a constant amount, with relatively limited increments [10] - In the SBS sector, the operating rate has increased slightly, and the rigid demand for butadiene remains unchanged [10] Inventory - This cycle (January 29 - February 4, 2026), the domestic butadiene inventory decreased, with the total sample inventory decreasing by 4.20% compared with last week. Among them, the sample enterprise inventory decreased slightly by 2.86% month - on - month, and the sample port inventory decreased by 5.19% month - on - month [10]

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market is expected to remain in a high - level volatile range in the short term. The price is supported by cost, and the downside space is limited [2][4][5]. - The upward trend of butadiene prices is expected to slow down. Although the short - term absolute price is relatively low, which stimulates downstream replenishment and the prices in Asia and Europe are relatively strong, the spot market trading is weakening [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - During the cycle, the high - cis butadiene rubber plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical continued to shut down, while the load of some butadiene rubber plants increased. The production capacity utilization rate remained at an absolute high level. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber in this cycle was 32,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.68% [5]. - The domestic butadiene rubber plants are expected to have limited changes in the next cycle [5]. 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the output of tire enterprises increased week - on - week as the production of overhauled enterprises stabilized. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises increased due to increased foreign trade orders, while the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises was restricted by inventory control [5]. - In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts is gradually narrowing, and the substitution demand remains high, so the overall demand of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [5]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of January 14, 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 34,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.50%. Both sample production enterprises' inventory and sample trading enterprises' inventory increased to varying degrees [5]. 3.1.4 Valuation - The current static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,600 - 12,100 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support to NR - BR price difference support [5]. 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral trading: The price will fluctuate at a high level, with the upper pressure at 12,000 - 12,100 yuan/ton (dynamically rising following the spot price of butadiene rubber), and the lower support at 11,500 - 11,600 yuan/ton (supported by NR - BR price difference and butadiene cost) [5]. - Cross - variety trading: The price difference between NR - BR is gradually narrowing [5]. 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - The estimated weekly production of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises in the current cycle (January 9 - 15, 2026) was 110,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.70%. It is expected to increase slightly to about 113,000 tons next week [6]. - Butadiene production capacity is in a continuous expansion state to match the expansion of downstream industries, and the expansion speed is slightly faster than that of downstream industries in stages [13][15]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the medium term, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, the rigid demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber is expected to remain high [8]. - ABS has large inventory pressure, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited incremental demand [8]. - The operating rate of SBS has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remains at the rigid demand level with little change [8]. 3.2.3 Inventory - In the current cycle (January 8 - 14, 2026), the domestic butadiene inventory increased slightly, with the total sample inventory increasing by 1.93% week - on - week. The sample enterprise inventory decreased by 6.05% week - on - week, while the sample port inventory increased by 7.99% week - on - week [8]. 3.2.4 Viewpoint - Short - term low absolute prices drive downstream phased replenishment, and the trading situation has improved. Overall, butadiene remains relatively strong in the short term, but the upward trend is expected to slow down due to the weakening of spot market trading [6].

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: January 11, 2026 - Report Author: Yang Honghan 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market is expected to experience high-level oscillations in the short term [2][4] - The upward trend of butadiene is expected to slow down [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - During the cycle, Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical's high-cis butadiene rubber plants continued to be shut down, while the load of individual butadiene rubber plants increased, with the capacity utilization rate reaching an absolute high level. The output of high-cis butadiene rubber in this cycle was 31,800 tons, an increase of 800 tons compared to the previous cycle, a month-on-month increase of 2.55%, and the capacity utilization rate was 79.15%, a month-on-month increase of 1.97 percentage points. It is expected that there will be limited changes in domestic butadiene plants in the next cycle [5] 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, some enterprises were still in the shutdown and maintenance state during the "New Year's Day" holiday this week, gradually resuming work around the 4th. The production scheduling did not operate normally for most of the week, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate to continue to decline. The shipment was slow during the cycle, and the inventory reduction rhythm was lower than expected. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will increase in a restorative manner in the next cycle, and the overall output will increase with the resumption of work and production of maintenance enterprises. Some enterprises continued to control production flexibly to control finished product inventory, which will limit the recent increase range [5] - In terms of alternative demand, the price difference between the main contracts of NR-BR is gradually narrowing, and the alternative demand remains at a high level. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintains a high year-on-year growth rate [5] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of January 7, 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 33,100 tons, a decrease of 400 tons compared to the previous cycle, a month-on-month decrease of 1.08%. The output of domestic butadiene rubber continued to be at a high level this cycle. The butadiene market was boosted by a sharp increase in the raw material market, and the shipment of production enterprises improved somewhat. However, there was some inventory waiting to be picked up after being sold. The overall inventory level changed little. Against the background of obvious differences in the negotiation focus, the inventory of individual sample traders decreased slightly during the downstream rigid demand price-pressing procurement follow-up [5] 3.1.4 Valuation - Currently, the static valuation range of the butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,100 - 12,100 yuan/ton. Due to the strong expectation of butadiene in futures trading, the futures are at a premium to the spot, and the upper limit of the static valuation is temporarily invalid. The valuation logic has changed from the cost side providing support for the lower valuation to the NR-BR price difference providing support for the lower valuation [5] 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral: The unilateral trend has changed from being relatively strong in the previous period to high-level oscillations; the upper pressure is 12,000 - 12,100 yuan/ton (moving dynamically following the spot trend of butadiene rubber), and the lower support is 11,100 - 11,200 yuan/ton (supported by the NR-BR price difference and butadiene cost) [5] - Cross-variety: The price difference between NR-BR is gradually narrowing [5] 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - In this cycle (January 2 - 8, 2026), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 113,600 tons, an increase of 200 tons compared to the previous cycle, a month-on-month increase of 0.18%. During the week, plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, a unit of Shanghai Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical 2, and Sinochem Quanzhou Petrochemical remained shut down, and there were no obvious changes in other plants, with a slight increase in weekly output. Next week, it is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be around 112,300 tons, a slight reduction compared to this cycle. There are no plans to restart plants next week, and the maintenance situation of Hainan Refining & Chemical needs further attention [6] 3.2.2 Demand - In terms of synthetic rubber, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene-butadiene rubber will remain at a high level in the medium term, maintaining a year-on-year high demand for butadiene. In the short term, with the reduction of butadiene rubber plant maintenance, it is expected that the rigid demand procurement volume of synthetic rubber for butadiene will remain at a high level [6] - In terms of ABS, the inventory pressure is relatively high, and it is expected that the demand for butadiene will only maintain a constant level, with relatively limited incremental demand [6] - In terms of SBS, the operating rate has increased slightly, maintaining rigid demand procurement for butadiene with little change [6] 3.2.3 Inventory - In this cycle (January 1 - 7, 2026), the domestic butadiene inventory decreased slightly, and the total sample inventory continued to decline by 4.28% compared to last week. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises fluctuated slightly, with a slight increase of 0.48% compared to last week. Although high-price transactions were slightly slow, affecting the slow inventory reduction, there was no obvious inventory pressure overall. The sample port inventory decreased significantly by 7.61% compared to last week. The arrival of imported ships was limited during the week, and the raw material inventory of downstream industries was normally consumed. Although there was some trading inventory, the market expectation was relatively strong in the later period, and it was in an inventory reduction cycle overall [6] 3.2.4 Viewpoint - In the short term, the relatively low absolute price has driven downstream periodic replenishment, and the transactions have improved. In addition, the prices of butadiene in Asia and Europe are relatively strong. Overall, butadiene is still relatively strong in the short term. However, due to the weakening of short-term spot market transactions, it is expected that the upward trend of butadiene will slow down [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term central price of synthetic rubber will move up, and it will enter a volatile phase in the medium term [2][4]. - The short - term price of butadiene is expected to be bullish, but it still faces high supply pressure in the medium term [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber View Supply - In January 2026, China's expected output of cis - butadiene rubber is 153,700 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons compared to the expected output in December 2025. One set of equipment with an annual processing capacity of 100,000 tons/year is planned for maintenance in the next month. The only established maintenance plan is for Maoming Petrochemical, and some other equipment maintenance plans may be cancelled. Dushanzi Petrochemical's 30,000 - ton high - cis cis - butadiene rubber plant is planned to be shut down throughout 2026 [4]. - The static valuation range of the cis - butadiene rubber futures is 10,700 - 11,700 yuan/ton. Due to the strong expectations of butadiene in futures trading, the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, and the upper limit of the static valuation is invalid. The valuation logic has switched, with the NR - BR spread supporting the lower valuation instead of the cost side [4]. Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to continue to be weak from December 26, 2025 to January 1, 2026. Some enterprises arranged routine maintenance during the New Year's Day holiday, and production scheduling at the end of the month decreased. Some enterprises continued to control production, resulting in a slight decline in the overall capacity utilization rate [6]. - In terms of substitution demand, the spread between the NR - BR main contracts remains high, so the substitution demand remains high. Overall, the demand side of cis - butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [6]. Inventory - As of December 31, 2025, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.07%. The price of cis - butadiene rubber increased due to cost support. The bullish mid - term market outlook in January boosted the enthusiasm of some traders, and with the impact of a small amount of stockpiling before the New Year's Day holiday, some production enterprises significantly destocked, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises increased [6]. Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term trading range will move up. The upper pressure is 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton (moving up dynamically following the spot price of cis - butadiene rubber), and the lower support is 10,700 - 10,800 yuan/ton (supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost) [5]. - Cross - variety: The NR - BR spread will gradually narrow [5]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene View Supply - From December 19 to 25, 2025, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises was 112,500 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.09%. The weekly output in the next week is expected to be about 113,400 tons, mainly due to the resumption of production at Dongming Petrochemical [7]. Demand - In the medium term, the operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, so the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, as the maintenance of cis - butadiene rubber plants decreases, the rigid demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber is expected to remain high [9]. - ABS has high inventory pressure, and its demand for butadiene is expected to remain at a constant level with limited incremental demand [9]. - The operating rate of SBS has slightly increased, and it maintains rigid demand for butadiene with little change [9]. Inventory - From December 25 to 31, 2025, the domestic butadiene inventory fluctuated slightly, with the total sample inventory decreasing by 0.13% compared to the previous week. The inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 4.58% compared to the previous week, while the port inventory increased by 3.23% compared to the previous week. Traders expect imports to decrease in January [9]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamental Analysis - Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage and has a low correlation with the raw material end [12]. - To meet the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and cis - butadiene, the butadiene industry is in a state of continuous expansion, and its expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [14][16]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamental Analysis Cis - Butadiene Rubber Supply - The output and operating rate data of cis - butadiene rubber show certain fluctuations over the years [47]. - The cost, profit, and gross margin of cis - butadiene rubber production also fluctuate over time [49][50][51]. - The import and export volume of cis - butadiene rubber shows different trends over the years. The weekly apparent demand also fluctuates [53][54][55]. - The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber, including enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory, shows different trends over time [59][61]. Cis - Butadiene Rubber Demand - The inventory and operating rate of tires, an important downstream product of cis - butadiene rubber, also show different trends over the years [63][64].

1. Report Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term price center of synthetic rubber is expected to move up, and it will enter a volatile phase in the medium term. The short - term price of butadiene is expected to be strong, but there is still high - supply pressure in the medium term [2][4][7]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber View 3.1.1 Supply - In January 2026, China's expected output of cis - butadiene rubber is 153,700 tons, a growth of 10,100 tons compared to December 2025. One plant is planned for maintenance in the next month, with an annual processing capacity of 100,000 tons/year. Some other plant maintenance plans may be cancelled, and a 30,000 - ton high - cis cis - butadiene rubber plant of Dushanzi Petrochemical is planned to stop production throughout 2026 [4]. - The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 10,700 - 11,700 yuan/ton. Due to strong expectations of butadiene in futures trading, the upper limit of the static valuation is temporarily invalid. The valuation logic has switched, with the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost supporting the lower - end valuation [4]. 3.1.2 Demand - In the rigid - demand aspect, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to continue weak operation from December 26, 2025, to January 1, 2026. Some enterprises arranged regular maintenance during the New Year's Day holiday, and the end - of - month production schedule decreased. Some enterprises continued to control production, so the overall capacity utilization rate may decline slightly [6]. - In terms of substitution demand, the spread between NR - BR main contracts remains high, so the substitution demand is also high. Thus, the overall demand for cis - butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [6]. 3.1.3 Inventory As of December 31, 2025, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the previous period, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.07%. Affected by factors such as the cost boost, the expected strong market in the first and middle of January, and pre - holiday stocking, some production enterprises significantly reduced inventory, while sample trading enterprises' inventory increased [6]. 3.1.4 Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term oscillation center moves up. The upper pressure is 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton (dynamically moving up following the spot price of cis - butadiene rubber), and the lower support is 10,700 - 10,800 yuan/ton (supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost) [5]. - Cross - variety: The NR - BR spread gradually narrows [5]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene View 3.2.1 Supply From December 19 to 25, 2025, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 112,500 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous period, with a month - on - month increase of 0.09%. Some plants were shut down, and the Dongming plant restarted after a temporary short - stop. Next week, the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises is about 113,400 tons, mainly due to the resumption of output from the Dongming Petrochemical plant [7]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the medium - term operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, with the reduction of cis - butadiene rubber plant maintenance, the rigid - demand procurement volume of synthetic rubber for butadiene is expected to remain high [9]. - In the ABS sector, the inventory pressure is relatively high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain at a constant level with limited incremental demand [9]. - In the SBS sector, the operating rate has slightly increased, and the demand for butadiene maintains rigid - demand procurement with little change [9]. 3.2.3 Inventory From December 25 to 31, 2025, the domestic butadiene inventory fluctuated slightly. The total sample inventory decreased by 0.13% month - on - month compared to last week. Among them, the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 4.58% month - on - month, while the sample port inventory increased by 3.23% month - on - month. Traders expect imports to decrease in January [9]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage, with a low correlation with the raw material end [12]. - To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene rubber, and cis - butadiene rubber, the butadiene industry is also in a state of continuous expansion, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [14]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals 3.4.1 Cis - Butadiene Rubber Supply - Output: The weekly output and daily operating rate data of Chinese high - cis cis - butadiene rubber from 2020 to 2025 are presented, and the operating status and future plans of various enterprises' plants are also provided [47][48]. - Cost and profit: The daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross - profit rate data of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber from 2015 to 2026 are presented [49][50][51]. - Import and export: The monthly import and export quantity data of cis - butadiene rubber from 2015 to 2025 are presented, as well as the weekly apparent demand data from 2020 to 2026 [52][53][54]. - Inventory: The weekly enterprise inventory, trade - enterprise inventory, and SHFE futures inventory data of cis - butadiene rubber are presented [57][59]. 3.4.2 Cis - Butadiene Rubber Demand The inventory and operating - rate data of domestic all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province from 2018 to 2025 are presented, reflecting the demand for cis - butadiene rubber in the tire industry [61][62].

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: December 28, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Synthetic rubber is expected to remain at a high level before the holiday. The price center of butadiene rubber has moved up, but the weakening near - term fundamentals suppress the upward elasticity of the price. Butadiene is expected to rebound in the short - term but face high supply pressure in the medium - term [4][5] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Synthetic Rubber Viewpoint - **Supply**: During the cycle, the high - cis butadiene rubber units of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical continued to be shut down, while other mainstream units operated stably. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 30,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.065%. The capacity utilization rate was 76.76%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points. It is expected that there will be limited changes in domestic butadiene rubber units in the next cycle [4] - **Demand** - **Rigid demand**: The capacity utilization rates of tire sample enterprises showed mixed trends. The production scheduling of most semi - steel tire enterprises was stable, and some enterprises increased production slightly. Some all - steel tire enterprises carried out maintenance, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises may still decline in the next cycle [4] - **Substitute demand**: The spread between the NR - BR main contracts remained at a high level, and the substitute demand remained strong. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintained a high year - on - year growth rate [4] - **Inventory**: As of December 24, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 34,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.56%. The price center of butadiene rubber rose slightly this cycle. The market transactions were concentrated in low - price purchases by arbitrageurs. Traders were cautious about raising prices, while terminal purchases remained weak. The inventory level of sample production enterprises increased, and the inventory of some trading enterprises decreased [4] - **Valuation**: The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 10,700 - 11,500 yuan/ton. Due to the strong expectation of butadiene in futures trading, the upper limit of the static valuation fails periodically. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support to NR - BR spread support [4] - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: The short - term oscillation center moves up. The upper pressure is 11,500 - 11,600 yuan/ton (moving up dynamically following the spot price of butadiene rubber), and the lower support is 10,700 - 10,800 yuan/ton (supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost) [5] - **Cross - variety**: The NR - BR spread gradually changes from narrowing to an oscillatory pattern [5] 2. This Week's Butadiene Viewpoint - **Supply**: The estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises in this cycle was 112,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09%. It is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises next week will be about 113,400 tons, mainly due to the resumption of production at Dongming Petrochemical [7] - **Inventory**: In this cycle, domestic butadiene inventory increased. The total inventory of samples increased by 10.06% week - on - week. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 1.06% week - on - week, and the inventory of sample ports increased by 20.28% week - on - week. There were imported ships arriving at the port this week, and there are still expectations of ocean - going ships arriving at the port later [7] - **Demand** - **Synthetic rubber**: In the medium - term, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber will remain high, and the demand for butadiene will remain high year - on - year. In the short - term, with the decrease in butadiene rubber unit maintenance in December, the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber is expected to increase [9] - **ABS**: The inventory pressure is relatively high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain at a constant level with limited incremental growth [9] - **SBS**: The operating rate increased slightly, and the rigid demand for butadiene remained stable with limited changes [9] - **Viewpoint**: The relatively low short - term absolute price drives downstream periodic restocking, and the transactions have improved. In addition, the prices of butadiene in Asia and Europe are relatively strong. Overall, butadiene will rebound in the short - term but face high supply pressure in the medium - term [7] 3. Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, the capacity of butadiene is also expanding continuously, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries in stages [14][16] - **Supply - side** - **Operating rate**: Data shows the weekly operating rate and production volume trends of butadiene in China from 2019 - 2025 [18] - **Maintenance situation**: Multiple enterprises have carried out or are planning to carry out unit maintenance, involving different maintenance capacities and time periods [19] - **Net import volume**: Data presents the monthly import volume, net import volume, and import profit of butadiene in China from 2008 - 2025 [20] - **Demand - side** - **Butadiene rubber**: The capacity will increase by 200,000 tons in 2025 and 190,000 tons in 2026 [22] - **Styrene - butadiene rubber**: The capacity will increase by 60,000 tons in 2025 and 220,000 tons in 2026 [24][25] - **ABS**: The capacity is expected to increase by 1.635 million tons in 2025 and 1.3 million tons in 2026 [32][34] - **SBS**: The capacity will increase by 360,000 tons in 2025 and 55,000 tons in 2026 [36][37] - **Inventory - side**: Data shows the weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory trends of butadiene in China from 2015 - 2025 [41][42][43] 4. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply** - **Production**: Data shows the weekly production and daily operating rate trends of high - cis butadiene rubber in China from 2020 - 2025. Some enterprises' units are in normal operation, while some are under maintenance or restarting [47][48] - **Cost and profit**: Data shows the daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin trends of butadiene rubber in China from 2015 - 2025 [49][50][51] - **Import and export**: Data presents the monthly import and export volume and weekly apparent demand trends of butadiene rubber in China from 2015 - 2025 [52][53][54] - **Inventory**: Data shows the weekly enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory trends of butadiene rubber in China from 2015 - 2025 [56][57] - **Butadiene Rubber - Demand - Tire**: Data shows the inventory and operating rate trends of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province from 2018 - 2025 [60][61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the synthetic rubber industry chain is expected to see a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The butadiene rubber futures will experience a volatile pattern throughout the year, with a focus on trading opportunities in different phases. In Q1, it is expected to be mainly volatile; in Q2 and Q3, the price center may move up; in Q4, it is expected to face pressure. From Q2 to early Q3, the average NR - BR spread may shrink, and from late Q3 to Q4, it may widen [3]. - The pricing of butadiene rubber in 2026 will still be mainly based on cost (butadiene) and supplemented by supply - demand factors. The butadiene market is expected to be in a pattern of increasing supply and demand with wide - range fluctuations. In the first half of the year, there is no new capacity expansion, and in Q2, supply may tighten due to seasonal maintenance of ethylene plants, which will support the price. In the second half of the year, with the return of ethylene plant maintenance and new capacity expansion, supply may increase, putting pressure on the price [4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 2026 H2 Synthetic Rubber Trend Review 3.1.1 Q3: Macro - rhythm as the trading mainline under a neutral fundamental pattern - For butadiene, it showed a pattern of increasing supply and demand in Q3. Domestic production remained high due to the return of ethylene plant maintenance, and imports increased from August to September. Downstream factories maintained rigid demand, so the price did not fluctuate significantly [9]. - For butadiene rubber, it also maintained a pattern of increasing supply and demand in Q3. Due to the increased substitution demand for natural rubber, the spot price showed strong resilience. The macro - rhythm was the main factor affecting the futures price. In July, it rose with the macro - sentiment; in August, it回调 as the market became more rational; in September, it rose as the market traded the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, with the main contract price reaching over 12,200 yuan/ton [9][10]. 3.1.2 Q4: Increasing fundamental contradictions in the synthetic rubber industry chain and a downward price center - For butadiene, supply growth exceeded demand growth in Q4. With high - level operation of global ethylene plants and continuous arrival of ocean - going cargoes, domestic supply increased significantly. Downstream industries were under pressure, and the price dropped by more than 20% [17]. - For butadiene rubber, although it maintained a pattern of increasing supply and demand, the lack of further increase in substitution demand for natural rubber led to only valuation support for its price. With high - level inventory of production enterprises, the price decreased in line with butadiene, with a decline of about 20% [18]. 3.2 2026 Butadiene Rubber Pricing Logic Expectation - In 2026, butadiene rubber is expected to continue the pricing logic of being mainly based on cost and supplemented by supply - demand factors, similar to 2025. Before 2024 Q3, it was mainly priced by butadiene cost. From 2024 Q4 to 2025 Q4, due to the weakening of butadiene fundamentals and the relatively stronger Thai glue, the substitution demand for natural rubber supported the price of butadiene rubber, and the trading logic became more diversified [19]. 3.3 Cost End: Butadiene in 2026 3.3.1 Supply Side - In 2026, butadiene production capacity is expected to expand from 757.7 million tons in 2025 to 819.7 million tons, with an expansion rate of about 8.2%. There is no new capacity in the first half of the year, and new capacity is mainly concentrated in Q4 [29]. - In 2025, the butadiene operating rate was high in Q1, decreased in Q2 due to maintenance, and rebounded in H2. In 2026, it is expected that the operating rate will be low in the first half of the year due to maintenance and increase in the second half. As a result, domestic production may decrease slightly in the first half and increase in the second half [31][34]. - In 2025, butadiene imports increased significantly compared with 2024, mainly concentrated in Q1 and Q3. In 2026, due to domestic capacity expansion and potential supply contraction in Europe and Asia, annual imports may decline slightly, and exports may increase slightly. From February to June 2026, imports may decline month - on - month, increase in Q3, and decline again in Q4 [45][46]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - The demand for butadiene from butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber is expected to increase in 2026. The design capacity of butadiene rubber is expected to increase from 212.2 million tons in 2025 to 231.2 million tons in 2026, with a growth rate of about 8.95%. The design capacity of styrene - butadiene rubber is expected to increase from 171.5 million tons in 2025 to 193.5 million tons in 2026, with a growth rate of 12.82% [50]. - The demand for butadiene from ABS and SBS also increased in 2025. In 2026, the ABS design capacity is expected to increase from 1020 million tons to 1150 million tons, with a growth rate of about 12.74%. The SBS capacity expansion was mainly in Q4 2025. In 2026, the demand for butadiene from these two sectors is still expected to have an increase [64][65]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis: Butadiene Rubber in 2026 3.4.1 Supply Side - The butadiene rubber industry has high supply elasticity. In 2025, the operating rate and production showed significant fluctuations according to profit. In 2026, it is expected to maintain high - level production and supply elasticity. The production is expected to increase compared with 2025, but the growth rate will decline. Inventory is expected to continue to rise slowly [74][76][77]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - In 2025, the demand for butadiene rubber increased. In 2026, the demand is still expected to increase, but the growth rate will decline. For tire demand, domestic demand is expected to increase but at a slower pace due to policy adjustments. Export demand is expected to grow but the growth rate will decline due to EU's anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations. The substitution demand for natural rubber is expected to increase but at a significantly slower rate [85][86][87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekly synthesis rubber report suggests that the oscillation center has shifted upwards, with the supply of high - cis butadiene rubber decreasing this week and the demand maintaining a year - on - year high growth rate. The inventory has slightly decreased, and the valuation logic has changed. The short - term trading logic is diversified, and the price center has shifted upwards [2][4]. - The weekly butadiene report indicates that butadiene has rebounded in the short term. The supply is expected to remain stable, the demand from synthetic rubber is high, and the inventory is in a destocking state [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Butadiene Fundamentals - Pricing stage: Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage, with a low correlation to the raw material end [8]. - Capacity expansion: To match the expansion of downstream industries, butadiene capacity is continuously expanding, with the speed and amplitude slightly faster than that of downstream industries in some stages. In 2024, the new capacity was 380,000 tons; in 2025, 940,000 tons; and it is expected to be 620,000 tons in 2026 [10][12]. - Supply - side: - Production: This cycle (20251205 - 1211), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises was 113,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.08%. Next week, it is expected to be around 113,400 tons, with limited fluctuations [5]. - Operating rate: The operating rate has fluctuated, and some enterprises have carried out maintenance [14][15]. - Net imports: The data shows the monthly import and net import volume trends of butadiene in China [16]. - Demand - side: - Cis - butadiene rubber: The capacity increased by 200,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 190,000 tons in 2026 [18]. - Styrene - butadiene rubber: The capacity increased by 60,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 220,000 tons in 2026. The operating rate and maintenance situation of some enterprises are provided [20][21][27]. - ABS: The capacity is expected to increase by 1.635 million tons in 2025 and 1.3 million tons in 2026 [28][30]. - SBS: The capacity increased by 360,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 55,000 tons in 2026 [32][33]. - ABS and SBS fundamentals: The operating rate, profit, and inventory data of ABS and SBS are presented [35][36]. - Inventory - side: The weekly enterprise, port, and total inventory data of butadiene show the inventory trends over the years [37][38][39]. 3.2 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - Cis - butadiene rubber: - Supply: - Production: This week, the output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 28,400 tons, a decrease of 0.11 tons compared to the previous cycle, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.87%. The capacity utilization rate was 70.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.84 percentage points [4]. - Cost and profit: The daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin data over the years are provided [45][46][47]. - Import and export: The monthly import and export volume data of cis - butadiene rubber are presented [48][49]. - Inventory: The weekly enterprise, trader, and futures inventory data of cis - butadiene rubber show the inventory trends [52][53]. - Demand: The inventory and operating rate data of Shandong Province's all - steel and semi - steel tires are provided, reflecting the demand situation of cis - butadiene rubber in the tire industry [56][57].