Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View - The synthetic rubber is approaching the upper limit of fundamental valuation, and the upside space is narrowing [2][4]. - The port tightness pattern of butadiene has been alleviated, and it is expected to pull back in the short - term and enter a weak pattern in the medium - to - long term. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber View - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, the upper pressure of synthetic rubber is 11,900 - 12,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton. The nr - br spread fluctuates in the short - term [5]. - **Inventory**: This week, the output and capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber continued to decline. The output was 27,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.93%. The capacity utilization rate was 68.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.29 percentage points. It is expected to increase in the next cycle. The overall demand of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate. As of August 13, 2025, the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 30,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.18% [6]. - **Valuation**: The static fundamental valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,200 - 12,000 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to decline slightly. The upper valuation limit is 11,900 - 12,000 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation bottom range is 11,200 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene View - **Supply**: The domestic butadiene supply increased. This period's output was 105,300 tons, a 2.73% increase from the previous period. The capacity utilization rate was 69.69%, a 0.07% decrease from the previous period [7]. - **Demand**: Synthetic rubber has a high demand for butadiene, and the demand for ABS is constant with limited increments. The demand for SBS maintains rigid procurement with little change [9]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased by 11.70% week - on - week. The sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.46% week - on - week, and the sample port inventory increased by 38.78% week - on - week. As of August 13, the latest inventory in East China ports was about 20,400 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons from the previous period [9]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: Butadiene is in a state of continuous expansion, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than that of downstream industries. In 2024, the new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [14][16]. - **Supply - side -开工率**: The butadiene weekly operating rate shows fluctuations, and many enterprises have experienced shutdowns and restarts [18][19]. - **Demand - side**: The production capacity of downstream industries such as butadiene - based cis - and styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS is expanding [22][31]. - **Inventory - side**: The butadiene weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory show different trends over time [34][35][36]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Supply - side**: The production of high - cis butadiene rubber shows fluctuations. Many enterprises' devices are in different operating states, including normal operation, shutdown for maintenance, and restart [40][41]. - **Cost and profit**: The daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber show different trends over time [43][44][45]. - **Import and export**: The monthly import and export volume of butadiene rubber shows fluctuations [46][47]. - **Inventory**: The weekly enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of butadiene rubber show different trends over time [51][52][53]. - **Demand - side**: The demand for butadiene rubber from the tire industry shows different trends in inventory and operating rate [55][56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are supportive, and it operates within the valuation range. The short - term market is slightly bullish, while the medium - term remains within the fundamental valuation range [2][4]. - The price of butadiene is expected to be volatile in the short term with support at the bottom. In the long term, supply pressure is the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Synthetic Rubber Weekly Viewpoint 3.1.1 Supply - The output of high - cis butadiene rubber this week was 27,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons compared to last week, a 5.93% month - on - month decrease, with a capacity utilization rate of 68.17%, a 4.29 - percentage - point month - on - month decline. Some plants such as Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical carried out short - term maintenance. Next week, the plants of Shandong Yihua and Qixiang Tengda are expected to restart, and the output is expected to increase [4]. 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires slightly decreased, while that of all - steel tires slightly increased. Next week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will vary. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires may continue to decline slightly, while that of all - steel tires is expected to increase. In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts is maintained at 700 - 900 yuan/ton, and the substitution demand remains high. Therefore, the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of August 6, 2025 (Week 32), the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 31,400 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous period, a 0.38% month - on - month increase. Although some production plants carried out short - term maintenance this week, the downstream was waiting for price drops, and the price of arbitrage resources was relatively low, resulting in slow spot transactions. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, while that of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly [4]. 3.1.4 Valuation and Viewpoint - In the short term, it is slightly bullish, and in the medium term, it operates within the fundamental valuation range. The current static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,200 - 11,700 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to rise slightly. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is 11,600 - 11,700 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is 11,200 yuan/ton [4]. 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish with upper pressure at 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton and lower support at 11,100 - 11,200 yuan/ton. - Inter - period: No relevant strategy. - Inter - variety: The price difference between NR - BR is expected to narrow in the short term [4]. 3.2 Butadiene Weekly Viewpoint 3.2.1 Supply - Some enterprises carried out plant maintenance this week, and the domestic butadiene supply decreased. The output was 102,500 tons, a decrease of 900 tons compared to the previous period, a 0.87% decline, with a capacity utilization rate of 69.76%, a 0.21% month - on - month decline [5]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remained high, and the demand for butadiene maintained a high year - on - year level. With the resumption of butadiene rubber plants, the rigid demand for butadiene is expected to increase. In the ABS sector, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant. In the SBS sector, the operating rate increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remained stable [5]. 3.2.3 Inventory - From July 31 to August 6, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased by 8.71% compared to last week. The inventory of sample enterprises decreased slightly by 1.50%, while the inventory of sample ports increased by 41.35% due to the arrival of imported vessels. As of August 6, the inventory at East China ports was about 14,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons compared to the previous period [5]. 3.2.4 Viewpoint - The price is expected to be volatile in the short term with support at the bottom. The overall arrival volume of butadiene is expected to be low, and the port price may remain resilient. In the long term, supply pressure is the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - Butadiene is currently in the stage of supply - demand pricing, with a low correlation with the raw material end [8]. - To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene production capacity is continuously expanding, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries [10]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals 3.4.1 Supply of Butadiene Rubber - Output: The output and operating rate data of butadiene rubber are presented, and the operating status and future plans of various enterprises' plants are detailed [34][35]. - Cost and profit: The daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin data of butadiene rubber are provided [37][38][39]. - Import and export: The monthly import and export volume data of butadiene rubber are presented [41][42]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory data of butadiene rubber enterprises, traders, and futures are provided [46][48]. 3.4.2 Demand of Butadiene Rubber - Tire: The inventory and operating rate data of semi - steel and all - steel tires in Shandong Province are presented [50][51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for synthetic rubber is a high - level pullback, while the medium - term trend is expected to be oscillatory. For butadiene, the short - term price is likely to experience a pullback, but the decline is expected to be limited. In the long - term, the supply pressure remains the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber Viewpoints - **Supply**: The production and capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber increased significantly this week. The production was 27,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.15%, and the capacity utilization rate was 67.63%, a week - on - week increase of 3.31 percentage points. It is expected that the production will continue to rise next week [4]. - **Demand**: In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to decline. In terms of substitution demand, the spread between NR - BR main contracts remains in the range of 800 - 900 yuan/ton, and the substitution demand remains high, so the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. - **Inventory**: As of July 23, 2025 (Week 30), the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China increased slightly, with a week - on - week increase of 0.22%. The inventory of sample production enterprises decreased slightly, while that of sample trading enterprises increased [4]. - **Valuation**: The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,500 - 12,400 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to be stable. The upper valuation limit of the fundamentals is around 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation bottom range is around 11,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is relatively strong, with upper pressure at 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton and lower support at 11,400 - 11,500 yuan/ton. There is no cross - period strategy, and the NR - BR spread enters a short - term oscillatory range [4]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene Viewpoints - **Supply**: The domestic butadiene supply increased this week, with a production of 103,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.99%, and the capacity utilization rate was 70.00%, a week - on - week increase of 2.04%. The increase in production was mainly due to the restart of the Shenghong Petrochemical plant [5]. - **Demand**: In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the ABS sector, the inventory pressure is high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant. In the SBS sector, the operating rate increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remains at a rigid level [5]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic butadiene samples continued to decline this period, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.68%. The sample port inventory decreased to a low level for the year, with the latest inventory in East China ports at around 15,700 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from the previous period [5]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short - term, the butadiene spot price is expected to pull back, but the decline is limited. In the long - term, the supply pressure is the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: Butadiene is in a state of continuous expansion to match the expansion of downstream industries, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages. In 2024, the total new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [10][12]. - **Supply - side - Operating Rate**: The operating rate and production of butadiene have shown certain fluctuations. Some plants have experienced shutdowns and restarts, affecting the overall supply [14][15]. - **Net Imports**: The net imports of butadiene have also fluctuated, affected by factors such as import and export prices and market demand [16]. - **Demand - side - Capacity of Butadiene Rubber and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: The capacities of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber have been increasing, with new production capacities put into operation in multiple enterprises in recent years [17]. - **Demand - side - Operating and Maintenance Conditions of Butadiene Rubber and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: The operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber have shown fluctuations, and some plants have planned shutdowns for maintenance [20][21][22]. - **Demand - side - Capacity of ABS and SBS**: The capacities of ABS and SBS have also been expanding. In 2024, the ABS capacity increased by 2.06 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to increase by 1.5 million tons. In 2024, the SBS capacity increased by 160,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to increase by 40,000 tons [26]. - **Inventory - side**: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory of butadiene have all shown certain trends of change over time [29][30][31]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Production**: The production of high - cis butadiene rubber has shown fluctuations, and the operating rates of different plants vary. Some plants have restarted, while others have planned shutdowns for maintenance [35][36]. - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Cost and Profit**: The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber have shown different trends over time [37][38][39]. - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volumes of butadiene rubber have shown certain fluctuations [40][41]. - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Inventory**: The enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of butadiene rubber have all shown different trends of change [46][47]. - **Butadiene Rubber - Demand - Tires**: The inventory and operating rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province have shown certain trends of change, which have an impact on the demand for butadiene rubber [50][51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term outlook for synthetic rubber is a high - level pullback, while the medium - term trend is expected to be in a volatile pattern. For butadiene, the short - term price is expected to correct, and in the long - term, it will re - enter a weak pattern after the macro sentiment eases [2][4][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber View Supply - The production capacity of previously restarted high - cis butadiene rubber plants was released, and the load of an individual plant in North China increased. The output of high - cis butadiene rubber this week was 27,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.15%, and the capacity utilization rate was 67.63%, a week - on - week increase of 3.31 percentage points. Yanshan Petrochemical's butadiene rubber plant has produced high - grade products after restarting. It is expected that the production of domestic butadiene rubber will continue to increase next week [4]. Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to decline in the next cycle. At the end of the month, the overall shipment of enterprises was lower than expected, the finished product inventory increased slightly, and some enterprises have short - term maintenance plans from late July to early August, which will drag down the overall capacity utilization rate. In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts remains in the range of 800 - 900 yuan/ton, and the substitution demand remains high. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. Inventory - As of July 23, 2025 (Week 30), the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,300 tons, a slight increase from the previous period, with a week - on - week increase of 0.22%. Due to the influence of macro news and rising raw material costs, the spot and futures markets were expected to be strong, the supply price increased significantly, and some arbitrageurs actively tried to buy, resulting in a slight decrease in the inventory of sample producers and an increase in the inventory of sample traders [4]. View - In the short term, the futures price of butadiene rubber is expected to pull back from a high level and enter a volatile pattern in the medium term. On Friday night, with a large number of speculative funds leaving the market, the commodity index fell from a high level, and synthetic rubber followed suit. In addition, with the strengthening of the basis, the liquidity of spot and futures sources in the spot market is expected to be released, bringing supply - side selling pressure to the spot market. In the medium term, butadiene rubber is expected to fluctuate mainly due to three reasons: the anti - involution policy is still in progress, which supports the overall valuation of commodities; the overall rubber sector is supported by fluctuations, and the raw material prices in Thailand have stabilized; the fundamentals of the synthetic rubber industry chain have improved marginally, with the inventory of synthetic rubber sample enterprises decreasing slightly for three consecutive weeks, and the tight supply of port goods due to the low arrival volume of butadiene in July [4]. Valuation - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,500 - 12,400 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to be stable. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton. When the main BR2509 contract has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the market price in Shandong (the monthly holding cost is about 90 yuan/ton), there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity, which will increase the pressure on the upper space of the futures market. The theoretical lower limit of the valuation is 11,500 yuan/ton, as butadiene is expected to support the butadiene rubber price from the cost side [4]. Strategy - For single - side trading, it is relatively strong, with the upper pressure at 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton and the lower support at 11,400 - 11,500 yuan/ton. There is no strategy for inter - delivery spread trading, and the NR - BR price difference will enter a volatile range in the short term [4]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene View Supply - Some plants restarted operation this week, increasing the domestic butadiene supply. The output this period was 103,400 tons, a 2.99% increase from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate was 70.00%, a 2.04% increase from the previous period. The increase in output was mainly due to the restart of Shenghong Petrochemical's plant [5]. Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remained high, maintaining a high year - on - year demand for butadiene. With the resumption of butadiene rubber plants, the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber is expected to increase. For ABS, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with no significant increase. For SBS, the operating rate increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remained at a rigid level with limited price changes [5]. Inventory - From July 17 - 23, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples continued to decline, with a week - on - week decrease of 8.68%. The inventory of sample enterprises decreased slightly by 1.07% week - on - week, and the overall inventory fluctuation was limited. The inventory of sample ports decreased by 21.50% week - on - week, reaching a record low for the year due to reasons such as weather - related delays in some ship arrivals and limited imports in July, resulting in tight tradable volumes in the main port storage areas [5]. View - In the short term, as commodities correct and trading volume weakens, the spot price of butadiene is expected to decline. However, the decline is expected to be limited as the arrival volume of butadiene in July is expected to be low, and port prices may remain resilient. In the long term, the supply pressure of butadiene is the main contradiction, and the fundamentals are still under pressure. It is expected to re - enter a weak pattern after the macro sentiment eases [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals Capacity - To support the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene production capacity has been continuously expanding, with the speed and amplitude of expansion being slightly faster than that of downstream industries at certain stages [10]. Supply - side (Capacity and Maintenance) - Many plants have new production capacity coming on - stream from 2024 to 2025, with a total of 380,000 tons in 2024 and 860,000 tons in 2025. There have also been multiple plant maintenance events, affecting production capacity utilization [10][12][15]. Demand - side - The production capacity of downstream butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber has been expanding, and new plants have been put into operation. The production capacity of ABS and SBS has also increased, with significant capacity increments in 2024 and 2025 [17][26]. Inventory - side - The weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory of butadiene have shown different trends over time, with the current port inventory at a low level due to factors such as limited imports and weather - related delays [29][30][31]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals (Butadiene Rubber) Supply - The production and operating rates of butadiene rubber have changed. Some plants have restarted, and some have planned maintenance. The production cost, profit, and import - export volume of butadiene rubber also have corresponding trends [36][37][41]. Demand - The demand for butadiene rubber is mainly related to the tire industry. The inventory and operating rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province have shown different trends over time, which will affect the demand for butadiene rubber [51][52].

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: July 20, 2025 - Report Author: Yang Honghan - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the price center of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber is moving up. Butadiene is expected to continue a slight upward trend next week, while cis - butadiene rubber is also showing a strong performance. Mid - term, the fundamentals of both face pressure. The increase in supply of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber may limit price elasticity and upside space [3][5]. - Butadiene is currently in the stage of supply - demand pricing, with a low correlation with the raw material end [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Synthetic Rubber Summary - **Supply**: In late July, the production of cis - butadiene rubber is at the break - even point. Jinzhou Petrochemical and Heze Kexin's cis - butadiene rubber plants restarted this week, and Yanshan Petrochemical is expected to restart in the middle and late next week. After the capacity of the previously restarted plants is released, domestic supply will increase significantly [3]. - **Demand**: For rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to fluctuate slightly next week. Order volume has increased in the middle of the month, which is expected to drive overall production slightly. In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts is maintained at 600 - 1000 yuan/ton, and substitution demand remains high. Overall, the demand side of cis - butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [3]. - **Inventory**: As of July 16, 2025 (week 29), the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59%. During this period, supported by cost and boosted by macro - sentiment, the inventory of sample production enterprises decreased, while that of sample trading enterprises increased slightly [3]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term, the price center of cis - butadiene rubber is moving up and showing a strong performance. The reasons include the expected optimization of the supply - side of bulk commodities, the strong performance of the rubber sector, and the marginal improvement of the synthetic rubber industry chain fundamentals. Mid - term, the supply increase may limit price elasticity and upside space [3]. - **Valuation**: The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,200 - 11,900 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation is expected to rise gradually. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is 11,800 - 11,900 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation bottom range is 11,200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is strong, with resistance at 11,800 - 11,900 yuan/ton and support at 11,100 - 11,200 yuan/ton. There is no cross - period strategy, and the NR - BR price difference is in a short - term shock range [3]. 3.2 Weekly Butadiene Summary - **Supply**: Some plants stopped for maintenance this week, resulting in a decrease in domestic butadiene supply. This period's output was 100,400 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.38%, and the capacity utilization rate was 67.96%, a decrease of 0.93% from the previous period [5]. - **Demand**: In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene is at a high year - on - year level. In the ABS sector, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant. In the SBS sector, the operating rate has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene is for rigid procurement [5]. - **Inventory**: During the period from July 10 - 16, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples decreased, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.18%. The inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly, while the inventory of sample ports decreased significantly, with a month - on - month decrease of 15.25% [5]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term, butadiene is driven by the rebound of bulk commodities and downstream rigid procurement. Spot trading has improved this week, and the price has risen slightly. It is expected to continue the upward trend next week. The overall arrival volume of butadiene in July is expected to be low, and port prices may remain resilient. Mid - term, supply pressure is the main contradiction, and the fundamentals are under pressure. After the macro - sentiment eases, it is expected to enter a weak pattern again [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and cis - butadiene, butadiene capacity is continuously expanding, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [10]. - **Supply - Side - Operating Rate**: The operating rate has fluctuated due to plant maintenance. Some major plants have carried out maintenance this year, affecting the overall supply [14][16]. - **Net Imports**: Relevant data shows the situation of butadiene imports and exports, and import profit is affected by factors such as market price and import cost [17]. - **Demand - Side**: - **Cis - Butadiene and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: The capacity of related enterprises is expanding. Some new plants have been put into operation in 2024 - 2025, and the operating rate of some plants is high, with a high demand for butadiene [18][23]. - **ABS and SBS**: The capacity of ABS and SBS has also increased in recent years. The operating rate of ABS has fluctuated, and the inventory pressure is relatively large. The operating rate of SBS has increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene is for rigid procurement [24][27][28]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene includes enterprise inventory and port inventory. Recently, port inventory has decreased significantly, while enterprise inventory has increased slightly [30][31]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals (Cis - Butadiene Rubber) - **Supply - Output**: The weekly output of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber in China shows certain fluctuations. The operating status of each plant affects overall output [35]. - **Supply - Cost and Profit**: The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of cis - butadiene rubber have changed over time, which are affected by factors such as raw material prices and production efficiency [37][38][39]. - **Supply - Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volume of cis - butadiene rubber shows different trends over the years, which is related to domestic and international market supply - demand relationships [40][41]. - **Supply - Inventory**: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber includes enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory. Recently, enterprise inventory has decreased slightly [44][45]. - **Demand - Tires**: The inventory days of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province, as well as the operating rates of domestic semi - steel and all - steel tires, show certain fluctuations, which are related to market demand and production plans [48][49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of synthetic rubber will follow crude oil and remain in a high - level oscillation. In the medium term, due to the high supply and the supply growth rate exceeding the demand growth rate, there is still significant fundamental pressure. The current main contradiction in the market may be the geopolitical conflict from a macro perspective [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情研判 - **Futures - end static valuation**: The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,400 - 12,000 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation is expected to oscillate. The upper valuation of the futures price is around 12,000 - 12,100 yuan/ton, and when the main BR2507 contract has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the market price in Shandong, there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity. The theoretical bottom valuation range is 11,400 yuan/ton [4]. - **Butadiene fundamentals**: The price of Asian butadiene remains stable, and the domestic butadiene market has seen improved short - term transactions, with prices oscillating around 9,500 yuan/ton. The industry's operating rate is still high year - on - year and has increased month - on - month. Short - term imports are neutral. Demand from butadiene rubber remains neutral, and there is also rigid demand from styrene - butadiene rubber, ABS, and SBS. Inventories of production enterprises and ports have increased slightly. Overall, butadiene is expected to oscillate with support [4]. - **Butadiene rubber fundamentals**: The processing profit of butadiene rubber has gradually returned above the break - even line, and the supply - side operating rate is expected to remain high year - on - year and increase month - on - month. The apparent demand this week remains high, but the substitution demand is expected to decline. Inventories have been at a high level year - on - year. The current fundamentals have a weak driving force, and spot prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. - **Butadiene rubber futures**: In the short term, the escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has pushed up international energy prices, and synthetic rubber, as a crude oil chemical product, may oscillate at a high level following oil products. In the medium term, the fundamentals are under pressure. Overall, the market is mainly affected by the geopolitical conflict, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and face pressure after returning to fundamentals in the medium term [4]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral positions are short - term bullish; the spread between NR - BR is expected to narrow [4] 3.2丁二烯基本面 - **Pricing stage**: Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage and has a low correlation with the raw material end [7]. - **Capacity expansion**: To support the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene rubber, and butadiene rubber, butadiene capacity has been continuously expanding, with the speed and amplitude slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [9]. - **New capacity in 2024 and 2025**: In 2024, a total of 380,000 tons of new capacity were put into operation, and in 2025, 860,000 tons are expected to be added, mainly through the C4 extraction process [11]. - **Supply - side operating rate**: The overall operating rate of butadiene is high, with some fluctuations due to enterprise maintenance. The total weekly production capacity is 1.4167 million tons, and the operating rate is 69.95%, with a weekly output of 991,000 tons [15]. - **Net imports**: Short - term imports are neutral, with data showing monthly import and export volume changes [16]. - **Demand - side capacity**: The capacity of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber is expanding, with new projects being put into operation in multiple regions. For example, in 2024 - 2026, new capacity of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber will be added in Zhejiang, Shandong, and other places [19]. - **Demand - side operating and maintenance**: The operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber vary among enterprises, with some in normal operation, some under reduced load, and some under maintenance [24]. - **ABS and SBS capacity**: The capacity of ABS and SBS has also been increasing. In 2024, the ABS capacity increased by 2.06 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to increase by 1.5 million tons. For SBS, the capacity increased by 160,000 tons in 2024 and is expected to increase by 250,000 tons in 2025 [28]. - **ABS and SBS fundamentals**: The operating rate, net profit, inventory, and capacity utilization of ABS and SBS show certain trends and fluctuations [29][30]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of butadiene production enterprises and ports have increased slightly, and the total inventory shows an upward trend [32][33][34] 3.3合成橡胶基本面 - **Butadiene rubber supply - production**: The weekly production of high - cis butadiene rubber shows certain trends and fluctuations, and the operating rate of enterprises also varies [39]. - **Butadiene rubber supply - cost and profit**: The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber show different trends over time [41][42][43]. - **Butadiene rubber supply - import and export**: The monthly import and export volumes of butadiene rubber show certain trends [44][47]. - **Butadiene rubber supply - inventory**: The inventories of butadiene rubber enterprises, traders, and futures are at a relatively high level year - on - year [50][51]. - **Butadiene rubber demand - tires**: The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong Province and the operating rates of domestic semi - steel and all - steel tires show certain trends [54][55]