三价合一

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中信证券:人民币汇率有望震荡偏强,并逐步回归“三价合一”!预计人民币汇率破7仍需要更多催化
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 02:06
Core Viewpoint - In late August, the RMB experienced a rapid appreciation against the backdrop of a weak US dollar index, strong central bank midpoint pricing, and attractive domestic equity market performance, leading to a new low for the USD/CNY exchange rate this year [1] Group 1 - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain strong in the short term, gradually returning to a "three-price unification" [1] - If the RMB can maintain a strong trend as the year-end approaches, the demand for settlement is likely to continue supporting the RMB exchange rate [1] - The current domestic fundamentals are primarily providing a floor for the exchange rate, with foreign capital inflow into the equity market but facing outflow pressure in the bond market [1] Group 2 - A breakthrough of the 7 level for the RMB exchange rate will require additional catalysts [1]