证券研究报告 宏观经济 2025年12月8日 德邦证券 市场双周观察（第一期） 证券分析师 程 强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 薛 威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 摘要 过去两周的全球市场主要受流动性层面的影响，特别是FOMC议息会议即将在12月10日进行和美联 储新主席人选即将公布的背景下。 12月FOMC降息的概率在过去两周逐步升高，这也带来了美元指数的弱势和全球风险资产的普遍强势。 日央行行长对于可能加息的言论引发了市场波动，也带来了日元汇率的反弹和全球发达市场无风险 利率的普遍回升，给全球风险资产带来了一定的扰动。 整体来看，过去两周全球股市与商品表现不错，发达市场国债利率迎来回升，美元弱势带来非美 货币涨多跌少。 股市：全球迎普涨行情，其中科技板块强势领涨；A股通信、国防军工领涨； 债市：联储降息预期抬升，发达市场无风险利率回升；30Y中债国债利率显著攀升，信用利差走扩； 商品：全球大宗 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Yuan (CNY) is approaching the 7.05 mark against the US Dollar (USD), with concerns about the possibility of breaking the 7.00 level by year-end being raised. However, the expectation remains that the CNY will end the year around 7.05, with a low probability of breaking 7.00 [1][8]. Group 1: Baseline Scenario - The strong settlement power observed daily supports the expectation of a CNY appreciation, although the pace is expected to be moderate. The focus this week is on the realization of the "three-price unity" for the USDCNY central parity, which has been maintained for over a year [2][8]. - The baseline scenario predicts that the USDCNY central parity will be around 7.05 by year-end, corresponding to a closing range of 7.04-7.06 [8][12]. Group 2: Right Tail Risks - Potential upward risks for the CNY include factors that could drive a rebound in the US Dollar Index (DXY), such as a hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) stance leading to a significant market reaction. Current market expectations suggest a 25 basis point rate cut in December, with an additional 2.3 cuts anticipated next year. If the December dot plot indicates only one cut for 2026, both the dollar rates and DXY could rebound sharply [6][10]. - Additionally, stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls in October and November could also contribute to upward pressure on the USD [12]. Group 3: Left Tail Risks - Conversely, if the DXY falls below the 100-day moving average towards the previous low of around 97, the CNY may also decline. Potential triggers for this scenario include a dovish FOMC stance indicating more than two rate cuts for 2026, or significant dovish comments from the new Federal Reserve Chair [6][12]. - Other factors that could lead to a weaker CNY include disappointing non-farm payroll results and rising unemployment rates, as well as a comprehensive peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which could strengthen the Euro [12].

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, Kashkari, has not yet formed a personal inclination regarding a potential interest rate cut in December's FOMC meeting, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] Economic Performance - The economy is demonstrating resilience, which has led to the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts in October [1] - Businesses are expressing strong optimism about the economic outlook for 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jefferson, supports a rate cut by the FOMC in October [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is considering a reduction in interest rates, which could impact various sectors of the economy [1] - A rate cut may stimulate economic growth and influence investment strategies across industries [1] - The decision reflects ongoing assessments of economic conditions and inflation trends [1]

Market Performance - On September 11, US stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.36%, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.85%, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.72%, all reaching historical highs [1][2][3] - The Dow Jones reached an intraday high of 46,137.2 points, closing at 46,108 points, marking the first time it closed above 46,000 [3] - The S&P 500 hit an intraday high of 6,592.89 points, closing at 6,587.47 points, while the Nasdaq reached an intraday high of 22,059.71 points, closing at 22,043.07 points [3] Technology Sector - The US Technology Seven Index rose by 0.62%, with notable individual stock performances including Tesla, which increased by over 6%, and Apple, which rose by over 1% [5] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks saw a general increase, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 2.89%. Key performers included Century Internet and GDS, both rising nearly 15%, and Alibaba, which increased by nearly 8% [8][10] Commodity Market - International precious metal futures showed mixed results, with COMEX gold futures down by 0.23% and COMEX silver futures up by 1.12% [11] - Gold futures closed at $3,673.4 per ounce, while silver futures closed at $42.065 per ounce [11][12] Economic Indicators - The US Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, marking the highest level since October 2021 [14] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 2.9% year-on-year, up from 2.7% in July, with the core CPI rising by 3.1% [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Fed President Goolsbee has not yet decided whether to support a rate cut in September, indicating uncertainty in the economic outlook [1] Group 1: Employment and Economic Conditions - The growth rate of the employment population is significantly below the equilibrium level [1] - Immigration issues, particularly those related to border security, may lead to an "unnatural" decline in hiring [1] - There is a concern that if layoffs begin to occur, it could create anxiety in the labor market [1] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Fed is still considered to be in a state of full employment, but attention must also be paid to its responsibilities regarding inflation and price stability [1] - The independence of the Fed is deemed crucial if inflation is to be controlled [1] - A series of shocks are pushing the U.S. economy towards stagflation [1]

Group 1 - The core focus is on whether Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will provide clues regarding the interest rate cut prospects for September's FOMC meeting [1] - There is speculation about how many Federal Reserve decision-makers may dissent from the resolution statement [2] - The Federal Reserve's perspective on the U.S. economy is a significant point of discussion [3]

Core Viewpoint - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has dropped over 5.5 basis points, reaching a daily low of 4.32%, following comments from Federal Reserve Governor Bowman regarding the potential for interest rate cuts by the FOMC [1] Group 1 - The decline in the 10-year Treasury yield indicates a shift in market sentiment towards expectations of lower interest rates [1] - The specific drop of over 5.5 basis points reflects investor reactions to Federal Reserve communications [1] - The new low of 4.32% marks a significant point in the bond market, suggesting potential changes in investment strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that there is low confidence in the projected interest rate paths and suggested that the economy may reach a critical point suitable for FOMC rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve must maintain humility regarding its economic projections as outlined in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) [1] - The diversity of opinions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is considered healthy [1] - Strong support was expressed for the FOMC decision made on June 18 [1] Group 2 - The differences in SEP expectations are expected to converge as more data becomes available [1]

Core Viewpoint - KPMG's Chief Economist Diane Swonk indicates that the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - There may be a period of "deficit" in the U.S. economy before the FOMC decides to lower interest rates again [1] - The probability of an economic recession in the U.S. is estimated at 60% [1]