Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that there is low confidence in the projected interest rate paths and suggested that the economy may reach a critical point suitable for FOMC rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve must maintain humility regarding its economic projections as outlined in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) [1] - The diversity of opinions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is considered healthy [1] - Strong support was expressed for the FOMC decision made on June 18 [1] Group 2 - The differences in SEP expectations are expected to converge as more data becomes available [1]

Core Viewpoint - KPMG's Chief Economist Diane Swonk indicates that the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - There may be a period of "deficit" in the U.S. economy before the FOMC decides to lower interest rates again [1] - The probability of an economic recession in the U.S. is estimated at 60% [1]