欢迎关注微信公众号 主力合约 品种 点评 操作建议 板块 本周将举行杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会,下半年货币 IF2509 政策方向对权益市场影响关键,而A股近一月涨幅 板块呈现轮动,A股温和调整 IH2509 股指 较大,预计进入高位震荡等待方向抉择。推荐买入 IC2509 看跌期权保护多头仓位,或阶段性部分止盈此前仓 IM2509 位。 目前观察债市情绪有望继续企稳,短期10年期国 T2512 债利率在1.78%-1.8%%附近可能是阶段利率上行 TF2512 股市回调期债继续回升,超长债涨幅居前 的阻力位,对应T2512合约在107.4-107.6附近 国侦 金融 TS2512 有支撑,不过短期行情预期仍有震荡,单边策略上 TL2512 期债逢回调或可轻仓试多。 黄金震荡偏强,建议买入黄金期权 AU2510 美国关税威胁升温美联储"独立性"面临挑战 美元回落黄金走 贵金属 AIU2512C776卖出AU2512C792构建牛市价 AG2510 型 差策略;白银多单在38美元上方继续持有 集运指数 偏弱震荡,10合约空单继续持有 EC2510 EC主力走势偏弱 (欧线) 10合约热卷和螺纹做多分别参考3140和 ...

面对利率上行、债基赎回等多重考验，固收基金经理展现出不同的应对策略：有的已开始积极布局，视 当前收益率为难得的"买点"；有的则审慎观望，更倾向于缩短久期、提升流动性。 操作更加积极 近期，与权益市场回暖形成对比的，是债券市场的震荡走弱。以10年期国债收益率走势为例，Wind数 据显示，今年7月初，10年期国债收益率一度跌破1.65%，而到了8月下旬，10年期国债收益率一度逼近 1.8%。 近期，股债"跷跷板效应"再现。债券市场在8月经历了一轮显著调整，不少中长期纯债基金净值承压。 国泰基金基金经理胡智磊在近期的策略会上提示了当下时点的性价比。他表示，债市出现超调或转向的 概率不大。若权益市场走弱或者由快速上涨转为震荡、"反内卷"相关商品价格冲高回落或央行重启买 债，债市情绪有望快速企稳。站在目前位置，对债市不应过度悲观。10年国债收益率在1.75%附近、30 年国债在2.0%附近具有较高性价比。策略上，可以逐步加仓博弈市场情绪回暖之后的修复行情。 "右侧布局时点未至" 也有固收基金经理表示，尽管当下不少债券品种配置价值逐步凸显，但并没有到右侧布局的区间。 "中期来看，我们对债券市场持中性偏乐观态度，短期预计债 ...

[Table_Message]2025-08-24 金融工程周报 大类资产与基金周报（20250818-20250822）—— 权益市场爆发，权益基金上涨 3.84% [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 证券分析师：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190525080001 内容摘要 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 [Table_Title] [Table_Summary] . 金 融 工 程 周 报 ◼ 大类资产市场概况：1）权益：本周 A 股市场中上证指数收盘 3825.76，涨跌幅 3.49%， 深证成指、中小板指数、创业板指、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、中证 2000、 北证 50 涨跌幅分别为 4.57%、4.64%、5.85%、3.38%、4.18%、3.87%、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - From January to August 22, 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by +17.9%, slightly lower than the +18.3% increase of the CSI All-Share Index. Although the current valuation quantiles of convertible bonds are close to or exceed historical highs, with the equity market on the rise, the subsequent performance of convertible bonds is still worth looking forward to [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Conditions - From August 18 to August 22, 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by +2.8% (last week's increase was +1.6%), and the CSI All-Share Index rose by +3.9% (last week's increase was +2.9%). The convertible bond market continued to rise, and the increase was greater [1]. - By rating, high-rated bonds (rated AA+ and above), medium-rated bonds (rated AA), and low-rated bonds (rated AA- and below) rose by +3.2%, +3.3%, and +2.8% respectively this week, with low-rated bonds having the smallest increase [1]. - By convertible bond scale, large-scale convertible bonds (bond balance greater than 5 billion yuan), medium-scale convertible bonds (balance between 500 million and 5 billion yuan), and small-scale convertible bonds (balance less than 500 million yuan) rose by +2.5%, +3.2%, and +3.3% respectively this week, with small-scale convertible bonds having the largest increase [1]. - By parity, ultra-high parity bonds (conversion value greater than 130 yuan), high parity bonds (conversion value between 110 and 130 yuan), medium parity bonds (conversion value between 90 and 110 yuan), low parity bonds (conversion value between 70 and 90 yuan), and ultra-low parity bonds (conversion value less than 70 yuan) rose by +4.0%, +2.9%, +2.6%, +2.4%, and +4.2% respectively this week, with ultra-low parity bonds having the largest increase [2]. Current Convertible Bond Valuation Levels - As of August 22, 2025, there were 450 outstanding convertible bonds (456 at the close of last week), with a balance of 623.836 billion yuan (627.415 billion yuan at the close of last week) [3]. - The average convertible bond price was 134.42 yuan (131.58 yuan last week), with a quantile of 100%; the average convertible bond parity was 106.74 yuan (104.19 yuan last week), with a quantile of 96.9%; the average convertible bond conversion premium rate was 27.8% (28.6% last week), with a quantile of 56.0%. Among them, the conversion premium rate of medium-parity (conversion value between 90 and 110 yuan) convertible bonds was 32.2% (30.8% last week), higher than the median conversion premium rate of medium-parity convertible bonds since 2018 (20.2%) [3]. Convertible Bond Increase Situation - This week, the top 15 convertible bonds in terms of increase were Dongshi Convertible Bond, Jintong Convertible Bond, Huayi Convertible Bond, etc. The increase rates ranged from 11.64% to 90.12%, and the corresponding underlying stocks also had varying degrees of increase [24].

图表1：六大行存款到期分布（截至年末时点数据，万亿元） 资料来源： iFind ，申万宏源研究 存款利率下降， 钱可能会去哪？ 2025年5月降息后，以工行为例，1年、2年、3年存款挂牌利率分别为0.95%，1.05%，1.25%。 2025年是存款到期再配置高峰期，存款重定价面临利率断崖式回落。六大行共有52.4万亿元左右 的存款到期，粗略估算存款类金融机构在2025年约有108.3万亿元的存款到期。 资料来源：六大行年报，申万宏源研究 图表2：2025年5月工行存款挂牌利率与2022年9月对比（%) 2022年以来房地产、类固收资产收益率加速回落，沪深300股息率开始高于无风险利率，目前差 距还在拉大，权益资产收益率优势凸显。 资料来源： Wind ，申万宏源研究 图表5：A股股息率已经明显高于无风险利率 资料来源： Wind ，申万宏源研究 图表3：2025年是存款到期再配置高峰期， 存款重定价面临利率断崖式回落 本轮存款搬家有什么不一样？ | | | | | 2025年5月监管引导存款利率调整,各期限存款下调幅度(bps) | | | | 1年内重定价定期存 | 1年内重定价定 期存款占总存款 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant rebound, leading to an increase in investor confidence and a surge in the number of new participants in convertible bond subscriptions [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The number of new investors participating in convertible bond subscriptions has increased by over 820,000 in just two months, bringing the total to over 8.7 million [1][4]. - The A-share market has seen a notable increase in new account openings, with 1,456.13 million new accounts opened in the first seven months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 36.88% [4]. - The financing balance in the A-share market reached 21,329.69 billion, an increase of over 340 billion since the end of May [5]. Group 2: Performance of Convertible Bonds - Newly listed convertible bonds have shown impressive performance, attracting new investors. For instance, the Ber25 convertible bond rose by 29.01% on its first day and has since increased by over 50% [8][10]. - The average price of convertible bonds has recently surpassed 130 yuan per share, indicating a preference among institutions for low-priced and mid-priced convertible bonds [12]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The recent surge in convertible bond subscriptions reflects a broader increase in investor confidence in the equity market, driven by positive market conditions [1][4]. - Analysts suggest that the current market environment, characterized by rising stock indices and a strong "money-making effect," is likely to continue attracting more capital into the A-share market [13][14].

（原标题：债券不香了 居民"钱袋子" 加速流向权益市场） 21世纪经济报道记者 余纪昕、实习生王罕 8月股债赛道加速轮动，不少理财投资者感到"有些迷茫"。低利率背景下，以往作为安心之选、习惯性放在银行的存款和大额存单，现在看来略显 鸡肋，低波动资产的收益率薄得不够看了。 再叠加去年全年大债牛行情对收益率下行空间的透支，曾被视作"稳稳的幸福"、"持有即赚钱"的债券理财产品，如今顺风局也已过；包括现金类 和债券类在内的固收类理财产品，现今正黯然失色。 资料来源：Wind，21世纪经济报道梳理 几家欢喜几家愁。与权益基金的火热形成鲜明对比，债券基金今年以来交出的"成绩单"大不如前。投资者不难发现，现下债基收益普遍变薄，甚 至个别产品已然出现负收益，让去年安心持有的客户也"尝到了亏钱的滋味"。据Wind数据，截至8月21日发稿，全市场3325只中长期纯债基金今 年以来平均总回报仅为0.45%，这个水平较去年同期的2.44%大幅下滑了1.99个百分点，收益缩水明显。 值得关注是，最近一周债基平均回报为-0.20%，相比去年同期的-0.03%下降0.17个百分点，短期表现同样不尽如人意，债基管理者和投资者今年 面临的收益 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market and monetary policy in China, reflecting on the current economic conditions and market sentiment. Key Points and Arguments Monetary Policy and Economic Conditions - The central bank's second-quarter monetary policy report indicates a decrease in the demand for stable growth and an increase in the demand for risk prevention, suggesting a potential tightening of monetary policy in the third quarter [1] - The easing of US-China relations and a 5.3% economic growth in the first half of the year have reduced the pressure for stable growth, leading to a shift in monetary policy from loose to tight [1][5] - The report indicates a more optimistic view on inflation and economic conditions, with a shift from "expected to maintain a low recovery trend" to "moderate recovery, with more positive factors" [4] Bond Market Dynamics - Recent weak financial and economic data have failed to boost market sentiment, as the central bank emphasizes structural policies, shifting economic drivers from real estate to technology and consumption [6] - The bond market is currently experiencing high duration and leverage levels, lacking catalysts for bullish movements, with expectations of tighter monetary policy reducing the likelihood of bond purchases by the central bank in the short term [7] - The strong performance of the A-share market has created a "see-saw effect," negatively impacting bond market sentiment [3] Factors Influencing Bond Market Sentiment - Upcoming tax payment periods and the September 3 military parade may create volatility in the bond market, with the A-share market's healthy structure potentially continuing to suppress bond market risk appetite [8] - Despite some negative factors, overall liquidity remains loose, and the rational pricing of bonds suggests a lower likelihood of significant adjustments [9] Investment Strategy Recommendations - A defensive strategy is recommended, focusing on opportunities for recovery in oversold conditions, with suggestions to reduce duration and consider steepening the yield curve [10] - In credit bonds, emphasis is placed on short-duration bonds, with a cautious approach to extending duration [11] Other Important Insights - The shift in the central bank's attitude reflects broader economic conditions and the changing priorities for stable growth [5] - The current market environment necessitates a reevaluation of traditional asset allocation strategies, as non-bank deposits are flowing into equity assets, altering the dynamics of asset allocation [6]

Core Insights - The report highlights a continuation of weak economic conditions, with a notable decline in new RMB loans in July 2025, amounting to -0.05 billion compared to 2.24 billion in June 2025. New social financing (社融) was 1.16 billion, down from 4.20 billion in June 2025, while the year-on-year growth rate of social financing was 9%, slightly up from 8.9% in June 2025 [3][4][5]. Group 1: Social Financing and Government Debt - Government debt continues to support the growth of social financing in July, with net financing reaching 1.25 billion, although this is a decrease from 1.41 billion in June. This high level of government debt financing has effectively supported social financing growth despite weak credit demand from the real economy [3][5]. - The report indicates that corporate short-term loans were low, while bill financing saw significant growth. This is attributed to a rapid decline in bill rates, which created a substitution effect with short-term loans, and effective measures to clear overdue accounts [3][4][5]. Group 2: Household and Corporate Credit Demand - Both household and corporate credit demand in July were below seasonal levels, reflecting low consumer willingness to spend and weak housing demand. The implementation of personal consumption loan subsidies and childcare allowances may stimulate future household consumption, but improvements in housing demand remain uncertain due to inventory and pricing factors [3][4][5]. - The report notes that new non-bank deposits increased to a seasonal high in July, indicating a trend of residents moving deposits to equity markets, influenced by favorable performance in the equity market and a seasonal decline in wealth management products [3][4][5]. Group 3: Monetary Indicators - M1 and M2 growth rates both increased, with the M1-M2 spread narrowing, suggesting a marginal improvement in economic activity. The increase in M1 is attributed to several factors, including a low base effect from previous financial data adjustments and significant net fiscal spending [3][4][5]. - The report also mentions that the bond market's pricing of fundamentals and liquidity has weakened, with a flattening yield curve reflecting pessimistic expectations for the economy. The bond market has shown weakness following the release of financial data, indicating a potential shift of funds from bonds to equities [3][4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the bond market may face pressure in August, coinciding with a peak in government debt supply. The coordination of monetary policy with fiscal liquidity may be challenging, and if bond market adjustments intensify, there is a possibility that the central bank may restart bond purchases [3][4][5]. - The report concludes that the third and fourth quarters may present risk windows, as a decline in government debt supply could reduce liquidity support, while inflation risks may rise [3][4][5].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking wealth management industry [3]. Core Insights - The banking wealth management market is facing challenges due to a "low interest rate, low growth, and low risk appetite" environment, which is impacting profitability and asset allocation [4][11]. - There is a significant potential for growth in the wealth management market, necessitating a focus on long-term investment philosophies, technological empowerment, and enhanced customer experiences [4][11]. - Recent trends indicate a recovery in bank wealth management product yields, driven by improved sentiment in the bond market [5][14]. Summary by Sections Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - On August 7, 2025, China Merchants Bank hosted a forum highlighting the wealth management market's potential and the structural challenges faced by institutions [4][11]. - The industry is urged to enhance long-term investment strategies, optimize asset allocation, and improve customer experiences [4][11]. Peer Innovation Dynamics - Huibin Wealth Management launched the "Star Huibin+" multi-asset strategy product system, integrating various investment strategies to enhance risk diversification and return optimization [4][12]. - Xingyin Wealth Management successfully completed the first equity subscription registration project in Fujian Province, marking a significant milestone in their service offerings [4][13]. Yield Performance - For the week of August 4-10, 2025, cash management products recorded a 7-day annualized yield of 1.34%, down 2 basis points from the previous week [5][14]. - The bond market exhibited a volatile pattern influenced by various factors, including central bank liquidity support and stock market performance [5][15]. Net Value Tracking - The net value ratio of bank wealth management products decreased to 0.91%, down 1.44 percentage points, indicating a positive trend in credit spreads [5][24]. - The current credit spread remains at a historical low, suggesting limited value for investors [5][24].