2026年2月26日，全球外汇市场的交易员们盯着屏幕上的数字，见证了一个历史性时刻。 离岸和在岸人民币兑美元汇率双双升破6.84关口，人民币对美元中 间价报6.9228，创下自2023年4月以来的34个月新高。 这个数字意味着，人民币正式进入了"6.8时代"。 你可能想象不到，推动人民币这波强势升值的背后，有一个听起来像电影情节的戏剧性因素。 美国联邦储备委员会主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，这位全球金融体系 中最有权势的人物之一，正面临美国司法部的刑事调查。 调查的核心指向他在2025年6月国会听证会上关于美联储大楼翻修项目的证词，检方怀疑他涉 嫌"伪证"。 鲍威尔本人则在今年1月11日的视频声明中直言不讳，称这次调查是特朗普政府施压美联储降息、破坏央行独立性的"借口"。 三位仍在世的美联 储前主席，珍妮特·耶伦、本·伯南克和艾伦·格林斯潘，联同四名跨党派前财长发表联合声明，谴责这是"试图通过检察手段破坏央行独立性的前所未有之 举"。 这种司法干预央行的操作，通常只见于制度薄弱的新兴市场国家。 在广东东莞的一家纺织厂，老板陈先生却眉头紧锁。 "我们出口一件T恤到美国，报价3美元。 去年汇率7.3的时候，能收回21.9元 ...

新华财经上海2月26日电 2月26日，人民币汇率延续上行趋势，截至发稿，在岸人民币汇率最高升至 6.8310，更多反映国际投资者预期的离岸人民币汇率一度升至6.8267，两者均创下2023年4月以来新高。 在岸、离岸人民币汇率2026年迄今升值幅度均超过2%。 与此同时，人民币对美元中间价当日上调93个基点，报6.9228，为连续第三日调升。2月以来，人民币 对美元中间价累计升值约450个基点。 财通证券分析师张伟认为，人民币升值主要受美元走弱所推动。此外，2025年9月后结汇需求的集中释 放也加快了人民币升值的速度。更重要的是，国内经济的韧性也对人民币形成一定的支撑。 海通期货研究所总经理助理顾佳男接受新华财经采访时表示，尽管1月以来人民币对美元升值，但表征 一篮子货币的CFETS人民币汇率指数整体维持震荡格局，可以看出人民币走强主要受美元整体弱势驱 动。 "以离岸人民币领涨为标志，近期汇市情绪较为乐观，成为助推人民币走势偏强、连破重要关口的又一 个重要因素。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示。 针对近期人民币汇率走势，王青认为人民币走强的背后是多方因素推动的结果，一是整体外部环境改 善；二是美元走势承压，美 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 春节假期后，人民币对美元汇率延续偏强走势，迎来连续升值。 2月26日，更多反映国际投资者预期的离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中最高升值至6.83605，较前一交易日升 值超0.25%。中间价方面，当日，人民币对美元中间价上调93个基点，报6.9228。 前一交易日，在岸及离岸人民币对美元双双升破6.87关口，创下2023年4月以来新高。人民币对美元中 间价报6.9231，调升93个基点。 "以离岸人民币领涨为标志，这段时间汇市情绪偏高，也是助推人民币走势偏强、连破重要关口的一个 重要因素。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示。 王青分析，首先，2025年11月以来，中美经贸关系回稳，我国整体外部环境改善，是这段时间人民币走 强的一个重要背景。其次，美元偏弱带动包括人民币在内的非美货币普遍出现一个升值过程。最后，近 期人民币对美元持续升值后，此前出口高增累积的结汇需求在加速释放。最新结售汇数据显示，2025年 12月和2026年1月，银行代客结售汇顺差分别达到999.3亿美元和887.6亿美元，单月顺差规模分列历史第 一和第 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 叶麦穗 春节长假之后，人民币汇率迎来"开门红"，2月25日盘中，离岸人民币兑美元一度升至6.8619，在岸人民币兑美元 触及6.8654，两大核心汇率指标双双刷新2023年4月以来的新高，并且上涨都超过130个基点。 市场认为，今年一季度我国出口有望延续较快增长态势，叠加当前外汇市场情绪持续向好，短期内美元指数大幅反弹的可能性较低。预计春节 后一段时间内，人民币汇率仍将保持偏强运行格局。 多因素共促人民币走强 汇市迎来"开门红"，连续两个交易日出现大涨。2月24日，在岸人民币兑美元汇率盘中最高升值至6.8804，离岸人民币兑美元汇率盘中最高升 值至6.8760，刷新2023年4月28日以来高点。 2月25日，这一趋势延续。当日人民币兑美元中间价上调93个基点，报6.9321。在岸价和离岸价也都继续上攻，离岸人民币兑美元一度升至 6.8619，在岸人民币兑美元触及6.8654，两大核心汇率指标双双刷新2023年4月以来的新高。 自2025年12月底升破7.0这一整数关口后，2026年开年人民币汇率延续升值趋势，人民币兑美元一直处于7之下，离岸价最高为6.9957。 2月以来，人民币兑美元汇 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate has shown an overall increase during the Spring Festival holiday, driven by favorable external conditions and increased corporate demand for currency settlement [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - As of February 23, the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate rose by 0.26%, closing at 6.8835, with a notable increase of 137 basis points from the previous closing price [2]. - The RMB has maintained a trend of continuous appreciation since breaking the 7.0 mark at the end of 2025, with the onshore RMB briefly surpassing 6.90 before the holiday [2]. - Experts predict that the RMB will likely exhibit a dual-directional fluctuation and moderate appreciation throughout the year, rather than a one-sided trend [3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Exchange Rate - Increased corporate demand for currency settlement before the Spring Festival has been a significant factor in the recent appreciation of the RMB [2]. - External factors, such as the U.S. Department of Justice's investigation into the Federal Reserve Chairman, have impacted the dollar's strength, allowing non-USD currencies, including the RMB, to appreciate [2]. - The RMB's exchange rate will be influenced by the dollar's performance, changes in the external environment, and the effectiveness of domestic growth policies [3]. Group 3: Corporate Risk Management - The People's Bank of China is encouraging financial institutions to enhance their currency risk hedging services, providing companies with effective tools for managing exchange rate risks [4][5]. - The importance of hedging against exchange rate fluctuations has increased for companies, as these fluctuations directly affect profit margins, cash flow, and competitive positioning [4]. - The National Foreign Exchange Administration plans to strengthen support for enterprises in managing exchange rate risks, promoting a neutral risk management philosophy and simplifying foreign exchange derivative transactions [5].

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate has shown an overall increase during the Spring Festival holiday, influenced by favorable external conditions and increased corporate demand for currency settlement [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - As of February 23, the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate rose by 0.26%, closing at 6.8835, with a notable increase of 137 basis points from the previous closing price [1]. - The onshore RMB briefly surpassed the 6.90 mark against the USD prior to the holiday, indicating a trend of appreciation since breaking the 7.0 mark at the end of 2025 [1]. - Experts predict that the RMB will likely continue to exhibit a dual-directional fluctuation pattern throughout the year, supported by fundamental factors and stable policy expectations [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Exchange Rate - Increased corporate demand for currency settlement has been a significant driver of the recent RMB appreciation, particularly as companies sought to settle their foreign exchange needs before the holiday [1]. - External factors, such as the U.S. Department of Justice's investigation into the Federal Reserve Chairman, have impacted the dollar's strength, allowing non-USD currencies, including the RMB, to appreciate [2]. - The RMB's performance is expected to be influenced by three main factors: the dollar's trajectory, changes in the external environment, and the effectiveness of domestic growth policies [2]. Group 3: Corporate Risk Management - The People's Bank of China is encouraging financial institutions to enhance their currency risk hedging services, emphasizing the importance of these services for corporate financial stability [3]. - The rising volatility in the foreign exchange market has made hedging against currency fluctuations increasingly critical for companies, affecting their profit margins and cash flows [3]. - The National Foreign Exchange Administration plans to strengthen support for corporate currency risk management, promoting the development of more accessible and effective hedging products [3].

Group 1 - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar is attributed to three main factors: the criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, the US government's fluctuating policies towards Europe, and heightened market vigilance regarding potential Japanese government intervention in the currency market [2] - Increased corporate demand for currency exchange towards the end of the year has contributed to the seasonal strengthening of the Renminbi, particularly as previously accumulated demand from high export growth is being released [2] - Current high market sentiment is playing a significant role in supporting the Renminbi's strong performance, leading to its recent rise above the 7 mark against the dollar [2] Group 2 - Looking ahead, it is anticipated that long-term factors such as the Balassa-Samuelson effect do not support a significant appreciation of the Renminbi, and uncertainties in domestic demand may impact future growth [2] - Geopolitical changes are also expected to negatively affect China's external demand, which remains crucial for economic growth [2] - In the event of significant fluctuations in the Renminbi exchange rate that deviate from fundamental values, regulatory measures will likely be implemented to stabilize the market and manage offshore Renminbi volatility [3]

Group 1 - The recent strengthening of the RMB is attributed to seasonal factors, with increased demand for currency exchange expected in December, leading to a typical appreciation of 0.5% and 0.8% against the USD in December and January respectively, with probabilities of 75% and 67% [1] - A survey by Bank of America indicates that global investor sentiment is at its highest since July 2021, with cash holdings dropping to a historical low of 3.2%, and 38% of respondents expecting economic growth, while concerns about recession are at a two-year low [2] - Lombard Odier strategists suggest that geopolitical risks, particularly related to US tariffs on European countries, may increase risk premiums, with gold expected to lead the market [3] Group 2 - Citigroup's Japan market head indicates that if the yen remains weak, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates three times in 2026, potentially doubling the current rate, with a first increase expected if the USD/JPY rate exceeds 160 [3] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise its economic growth forecast and signal readiness for further rate hikes due to yen depreciation and inflation risks, although specific timing for rate increases remains uncertain [3] - A weak 20-year Japanese government bond auction has led to further selling of Japanese bonds, with concerns over government fiscal conditions and potential increases in government spending regardless of the election outcome [4]

Core Viewpoint - The RMB/USD exchange rate is expected to experience both appreciation momentum and adjustment pressure in 2026, influenced by various economic factors and external uncertainties [1][8]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - In 2025, the RMB/USD exchange rate exhibited a "weak first, strong later" trend, fluctuating between 7.30 and 7.35 until early April, before turning to an upward trend [1][2]. - By the end of 2025, both offshore and onshore RMB rates broke the psychological barrier of "7", reaching new highs since September 2024 and May 2023, respectively [1][3]. - The appreciation of the RMB is attributed to a weaker USD, stable Chinese economic fundamentals, and increased demand for currency settlement at year-end [1][2][3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Appreciation - The weakening of the USD is identified as a primary driver for the recent RMB appreciation, with the USD index dropping significantly after peaking above 100 in November [3][6]. - Seasonal factors also play a role, as historical trends show that the RMB tends to appreciate at the end of the year due to increased currency settlement needs from exporters [4][5]. - The strong performance of exports and the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets have further supported the RMB's rise [6][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, emphasizing the prevention of excessive fluctuations [7][8]. - In 2026, the RMB is likely to experience a dual-directional fluctuation rather than a one-sided trend, with potential appreciation driven by favorable domestic and international conditions [1][8][9]. - Analysts predict that the RMB/USD exchange rate will likely remain within the range of 6.9 to 7.3, influenced by various economic factors and market dynamics [9].

Core Viewpoint - The RMB/USD exchange rate is expected to experience a "weak first, strong later" trend in 2025, with the rate fluctuating between 7.30 and 7.35 until early April, followed by a significant appreciation towards the end of the year, breaking the key psychological level of "7" [1][4][6]. Group 1: Factors Influencing RMB Appreciation - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to multiple factors, including a weakening USD, a stable Chinese economic fundamental, and increased demand for currency settlement at year-end [1][6][8]. - The RMB's rise is supported by the resilience of exports and the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets, which have contributed to the upward pressure on the currency [8][10]. - The correlation between the USD index and the RMB exchange rate indicates that a 3% depreciation in the USD typically corresponds to a 1% appreciation in the RMB, highlighting the impact of USD movements on RMB valuation [6][8]. Group 2: Seasonal and Market Dynamics - Seasonal factors also play a role in the RMB's appreciation, with historical trends showing stronger appreciation at the end of the year due to increased settlement needs from exporters [7][8]. - The end-of-year settlement demand from export enterprises has been identified as a significant driver for the RMB's rise, as companies accelerate currency conversion to avoid exchange losses [8][10]. - The market sentiment has shifted, with previously bearish views on the RMB reversing as Chinese assets become more attractive compared to US assets, leading to a reversal of previously held foreign capital [8][10]. Group 3: Outlook for 2026 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, emphasizing the prevention of excessive fluctuations and the need for a stable monetary policy [10][11]. - Factors that may support the RMB in 2026 include a potential weakening of the USD due to economic pressures and a rebound in the Chinese economy, which could sustain the RMB's appreciation momentum [11][12]. - The RMB is expected to maintain a dual-directional fluctuation pattern, with projections indicating a trading range between 6.9 and 7.3 against the USD throughout 2026 [12].