白酒行业正迎来十年一遇的"五底共振"机遇，政策、库存、动销、批价、产销五大指标同时见底，历史数据显示这往往预示翻倍行情。当前板块估值跌破冰 点，但分红率创新高，北向资金已开始抄底，茅台批价与库存周期释放出触底信号，春节旺季或成行业转折点。 当茅台股东大会传出"行业进入深度调整期"的表态时，资本市场的反应却出人意料。中信建投最新研报用"五底阶段"这个精妙框架，揭开了白酒板块暗流涌 动的配置密码。政策底、库存底、动销底、批价底、产销底五大指标同时亮灯，这在中国白酒行业近十年周期史上只出现过两次——2014年和2018年，随后 都走出了波澜壮阔的翻倍行情。 百度图片 政策底的信号最为清晰。消费税调整预期逐渐明朗，行业最大的政策靴子即将落地。库存数据更值得玩味，渠道调研显示主流酒企库存周期已从高峰期的6 个月降至3个月以内，特别是高端白酒渠道去化接近完成。动销端的数据曲线更富戏剧性，春节备货季的终端进货量环比提升30%，这个数字恰好与2018年 周期拐点前夜的数据高度吻合。 穿越周期的密码藏在龙头酒企的财报细节里。茅台"不唯指标论"的表态暗藏玄机，其Q3合同负债余额环比增长15%，这个先行指标往往领先行业复苏3-6个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The home furnishing and decoration industry is undergoing a significant reshuffle, with many companies, including the once-prominent "home decoration unicorn" Zhu Fan Er, facing severe operational challenges and financial distress due to a combination of low demand, high costs, and aggressive expansion strategies [1][2][5]. Industry Overview - The home furnishing and decoration sector has entered a "reshuffle period," with a notable decline in new housing sales, which dropped from a peak of 13.58 billion square meters in 2021 to an estimated 9.74 billion square meters in 2024 [2]. - The overall contraction in housing sales has directly impacted downstream demand for home furnishing and decoration services, leading to a significant number of bankruptcies among decoration companies, with 48, 75, and over 100 companies going bankrupt in 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively [2]. Company-Specific Challenges - Zhu Fan Er, once thriving with substantial capital and market presence, has faced a rapid decline due to aggressive expansion and high operational costs, leading to a precarious financial situation [4]. - Other major players, such as Alibaba's home furnishing brand homearch and Gome's internet decoration company, have also ceased operations, highlighting the industry's struggles [3]. - Dongyi Risheng, once a leader in the industry, reported a staggering 55.8% year-on-year revenue decline in 2024, with revenues shrinking from 42.91 billion yuan in 2021 to 12.96 billion yuan [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The industry is characterized by a "new normal" of low temperature, low growth, low profit, and high operational costs, which has fundamentally altered the growth logic of the sector [5]. - The aggressive expansion strategies that fueled growth during the industry's boom have now become burdensome, leading to financial instability as the market contracts [5]. - The cyclical nature of the industry suggests that while current challenges are significant, there is potential for recovery as companies that adapt through innovation and focus on user value may emerge stronger in the future [5].