Core Conclusion - The current A-share bull market shows no clear signs of bubble formation, characterized by "new high in volume, moderate enthusiasm, uneven driving forces, and distinct structural features" [1] Market Overview - The total market capitalization and circulating market value of A-shares have reached historical highs, indicating a significant expansion compared to previous bull markets, but the ratios of circulating market value to GDP and M2 remain in the mid-low range [4][23] - The current PE ratio of the CSI 300 is approximately 12.84, significantly lower than the historical peaks of 27.88 in 2007 and 19.42 in 2015, suggesting that the current market is more reliant on valuation recovery driven by interest rate declines and policy expectations rather than fundamental earnings growth [20][22] Trading Activity - Trading activity is gradually increasing, with the turnover rate and the proportion of rising days not reaching historical highs, indicating that the market is not in an overheated state [4][19] - The proportion of stocks reaching historical highs is only about 10%, which is significantly lower than the levels seen during previous bull market peaks [49] Fund Inflows - The enthusiasm of retail investors remains limited, as evidenced by the lower number of new accounts and fund issuances compared to previous bull markets [23][21] - The financing balance has surpassed the 2015 high but still represents a low proportion of circulating market value, indicating a cautious risk appetite without excessive leverage [46][21] Sector Rotation - The TMT sector has seen increased trading concentration, with its transaction volume exceeding 40%, reflecting a crowded trading environment [51] - The current market breadth is healthy, with no clear signals of divergence between index performance and the number of stocks participating in the rally [4][5] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a "strong oscillation" state around the National Day holiday, with potential transitions from liquidity-driven growth to fundamental-driven growth anticipated in November [5][1] - Historical data suggests that style rotation is not prominent immediately after the National Day, but significant shifts are often observed between Q3 and Q4 [5][2]

2025 年 09 月 28 日 A 股大牛市：一份全面的体检报告 在伴随本轮 A 股大牛市不断上涨的过程中，市场基本符合我们在三季度的观点 预判。对于大盘指数：我们较早鲜明提出"牛且慢"的慢牛呼吁，并反复强调： 1、站上 3800 点已基本符合我们对于本轮流动性牛市的心理预期，后续持以跟 踪态度，但眼下对于短期大盘指数进一步向上空间已经难以合理预估。 2、本轮 A 股大盘指数向上空间真正打开需市场从流动性牛-基本面牛-新旧动 能转化牛实现"三头牛"兑现转变，这是未来逐步验证的过程。" huangwz1@essence.com.cn 第一，从宏观定位层面，全 A 总市值和流通市值已创历史新高，市场体量远超 历次牛市，但流通市值/GDP 与流通市值/M2 的比值仍在中低区间，居民存款证 券化率不足 60%，明显低于 2015 年接近 100%的极端水平。这说明本轮行情更 多体现为"体量扩张下的理性上涨"。 第二，从交易热度层面，换手率和上涨天数占比均未进入历史高位，心理线指 标虽回到 63%左右，但仍低于 2007 年、2015 年 70%的极端值，显示市场赚钱 效应处于逐步加强的状态。同时，股价创新高股票占比 ...