Core Conclusion - The current A-share bull market shows no clear signs of bubble formation, characterized by "new high in volume, moderate enthusiasm, uneven driving forces, and distinct structural features" [1] Market Overview - The total market capitalization and circulating market value of A-shares have reached historical highs, indicating a significant expansion compared to previous bull markets, but the ratios of circulating market value to GDP and M2 remain in the mid-low range [4][23] - The current PE ratio of the CSI 300 is approximately 12.84, significantly lower than the historical peaks of 27.88 in 2007 and 19.42 in 2015, suggesting that the current market is more reliant on valuation recovery driven by interest rate declines and policy expectations rather than fundamental earnings growth [20][22] Trading Activity - Trading activity is gradually increasing, with the turnover rate and the proportion of rising days not reaching historical highs, indicating that the market is not in an overheated state [4][19] - The proportion of stocks reaching historical highs is only about 10%, which is significantly lower than the levels seen during previous bull market peaks [49] Fund Inflows - The enthusiasm of retail investors remains limited, as evidenced by the lower number of new accounts and fund issuances compared to previous bull markets [23][21] - The financing balance has surpassed the 2015 high but still represents a low proportion of circulating market value, indicating a cautious risk appetite without excessive leverage [46][21] Sector Rotation - The TMT sector has seen increased trading concentration, with its transaction volume exceeding 40%, reflecting a crowded trading environment [51] - The current market breadth is healthy, with no clear signals of divergence between index performance and the number of stocks participating in the rally [4][5] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a "strong oscillation" state around the National Day holiday, with potential transitions from liquidity-driven growth to fundamental-driven growth anticipated in November [5][1] - Historical data suggests that style rotation is not prominent immediately after the National Day, but significant shifts are often observed between Q3 and Q4 [5][2]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the current A-share bull market is characterized by a "slow bull" trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index having risen over 40% since September 24, and over 23% since the "407 Golden Pit" [1][11] - The report outlines a three-phase transition for the bull market: liquidity-driven bull, fundamental bull, and a transition from old to new momentum, indicating that significant upward movement in the index requires these phases to be validated [1][11] - The report identifies that the current market is not in a state of irrational overheating, with high market capitalization but moderate trading heat and uneven driving forces [2][3] Group 2 - The report compares the current bull market with historical bull markets, noting that the current rise is significantly lower than previous bull markets, with the Shanghai Composite Index's rise of 42% being much less than the 430% in 2007 and 146% in 2015 [20][22] - It highlights that the current bull market's trading volume and turnover rates are lower than historical highs, indicating a more moderate market environment [20][24] - The report states that the current average PE ratio for the CSI 300 is approximately 12.84, which is significantly lower than the extreme levels seen in previous bull markets, suggesting that the current market is more reliant on policy expectations and liquidity rather than fundamental earnings growth [24][25] Group 3 - The report discusses the liquidity and funding aspects of the current bull market, noting that the total market capitalization and circulating market value have reached historical highs, but the ratio of circulating market value to GDP remains low at 59% [26][24] - It mentions that the number of new accounts and fund issuances is weaker compared to previous bull markets, indicating limited enthusiasm from retail investors [26][24] - The report also highlights that the current financing balance has surpassed the previous high in 2015, but the proportion of financing balance to circulating market value is still low, suggesting that the market is not excessively leveraged [26][49] Group 4 - The report outlines ten core monitoring indicators for the bull market, including macro positioning indicators like market capitalization ratios and deposit securitization rates, which indicate the market's relative valuation [40][41] - It emphasizes trading heat indicators such as market activity based on turnover rates and the number of stocks reaching new highs, which are currently lower than historical peaks, suggesting a more cautious market environment [48][52] - The report also discusses industry rotation indicators, highlighting that the current market breadth is supported by a diverse range of stocks rather than being driven by a few large-cap stocks [5][61]