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策略定期报告:反杠铃超额:不止牛市
Guotou Securities· 2025-07-27 11:04
Group 1 - The report indicates that the current market environment is characterized by a significant increase in trading volume, with the average daily trading volume for the entire A-share market reaching 1.8486 trillion, which is a 50% increase from the previous 1.2 trillion central level, suggesting a potential new upward trend in the market [3][15][72] - The report highlights that the A-share market is experiencing a structural shift, with large-cap growth stocks, particularly in the ChiNext and technology sectors, outperforming small-cap and dividend stocks, indicating a challenge to the previously dominant "barbell strategy" [4][56][58] - The report emphasizes that the current liquidity conditions are conducive to a bull market, driven by external factors such as a weak US dollar and internal factors like the rebalancing of stock and bond asset allocations, leading to increased inflows of incremental capital [2][71][78] Group 2 - The report notes that the banking sector is currently facing challenges, with the banking index having retraced 7% from its peak, and the overall profitability of the banking sector remaining low, with a return on equity (ROE) at historical lows [4][31][35] - The report suggests that the entrepreneurial board index and technology sectors are likely to benefit from favorable macroeconomic conditions, including a gradual decline in long-term interest rates and supportive policies aimed at improving competition and reducing excess capacity [4][62][66] - The report indicates that the current valuation of the entrepreneurial board index is at a historical low, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 33.89, which is significantly lower than other major A-share indices, suggesting a relative valuation advantage [62][67][68]