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黄金今日行情走势要点分析(2025.8.29)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-29 00:50
Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased, with over 85% probability for a 25 basis points cut in September, which lowers the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and often leads to a weaker dollar, creating a dual benefit for gold [2] - Political tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve have raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, as President Trump attempted to dismiss Fed Governor Cook, who subsequently filed a lawsuit claiming the president lacks the authority to do so, potentially leading to quicker and prolonged low interest rates that could drive safe-haven investments into gold [2] - Despite a decline in initial jobless claims and a rebound in corporate profits indicating economic resilience, uncertainty continues to drive investors towards gold as a safe haven, while a buoyant market allows investors to hedge potential risks through gold, creating a new norm of simultaneous gains in both stocks and gold [2] - Key economic indicators to watch include the U.S. July Core PCE Price Index year-on-year, personal spending month-on-month, and the Chicago PMI for August [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold has shown a rebound after a dip, with a strong bullish trend indicated by three consecutive bullish candles, and the short-term moving averages (5-day, 10-day, 20-day) displaying a clear upward divergence, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend [5] - Key support levels to monitor include the 5-day moving average around 3395; if this level holds, the bullish trend remains intact, while a drop below could see stronger support at the 10-day moving average around 3365 [6] - The primary resistance level is focused around 3423/3425, which is a confluence of recent highs and an upward trend line; a breakout above this level could lead to further resistance at 3439 and 3452 [7] - The four-hour chart indicates a current upward trend with an "ascending wedge" pattern, which could either continue or reverse depending on whether the price holds above the lower support line of the wedge [9]
Verizon:在第一季度财报公布前,公司并不太看好业绩
美股研究社· 2025-04-09 10:50
Core Viewpoint - Verizon has shown resilience in a challenging market, achieving over 6% positive returns year-to-date, contrasting with a 14% decline in the broader market [1] Financial Performance - Verizon has consistently met or exceeded earnings expectations for the past 10 quarters, averaging a 1.4% beat per quarter, but has only exceeded revenue expectations 50% of the time, with an average revenue miss of 0.2% per quarter [2] - Key metrics to watch for the upcoming first quarter include expected revenue of $33.3 billion and a standardized EPS of $1.15, with anticipated year-over-year revenue growth of less than 1% [4] - The company is facing increased competitive pressure from AT&T and T-Mobile, which may lead to higher customer churn rates and stagnant postpaid net additions despite a strong fourth quarter [4][6] Strategic Initiatives - Verizon's management is focusing on enhancing customer experience through initiatives like the myPlan and personalized services, which may help mitigate potential user growth challenges [6] - Price increases are expected to generate approximately $1 billion in incremental revenue, with wireless service revenue projected to grow 2-2.8% year-over-year [6] Debt and Cash Flow - Verizon has a significant debt burden of $144 billion, with 82% being unsecured, leading to scrutiny over its ability to generate free cash flow [7] - Expected free cash flow for FY25 is projected to decline by about 9% to $18 billion, with cash dividend outflows potentially reaching $11.5 billion [8][9] Valuation and Market Position - Verizon's current dividend yield of over 6% is attractive but not significantly better than the industry average of 6.2% [9][10] - The stock's forward valuation is not considered cheap, trading at a premium compared to its five-year average rolling P/E ratio of 8.4 times [12] - Expected EPS growth for the year is less than 2%, resulting in a high PEG ratio of over 5, indicating that the current premium may not be justified [14]