市场避险需求

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金价破4000美元后的警钟:历史暗示牛市中途总有一盆冰水
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-10 14:40
历史是最好的老师,回顾近半个世纪的黄金市场,每次大涨后都伴随着不同程度的回调。1970年至1980 年繁荣期间,黄金涨幅高达1725%,但中期出现了回调;1980年至1999年衰退期间,黄金价格累计跌幅 达59%;2011年金价见顶后连续四年下跌,跌幅近一半。这些历史数据提醒投资者,黄金避险并非无风 险,牛市中途的回调是常态。 本轮黄金牛市,是趋势资金、避险需求与供需变化形成的"合力"。货币政策与地缘政治的双重影响,放 大了市场避险需求,美联储降息预期与地缘政治冲突成为核心推手。全球央行购金与流动性泛滥,直接 打破了黄金市场传统供需逻辑。然而,这种"合力"也隐含着风险。海外ETF与金融机构资金快速净流 入,速度已超出基本面解释范畴,一旦市场情绪逆转,资金可能迅速流出。 谁是坚守者:央行与长期机构的定力 黄金市场,向来是资本逐鹿、情绪交织的战场。当10月9日国际黄金价格冲高至4059.31美元/盎司,创 下历史新高时,市场沉浸在一片狂欢之中。然而,仅仅不到24小时,10月10日凌晨,现货黄金价格便跌 破4000美元/盎司关键关口,最低触及3945.03美元/盎司,上演了一场惊心动魄的"跳水"行情。这盆突如 其来 ...
突然“跳水”!一则利空突袭!美联储主席最新发声
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-10-09 23:40
Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Silver prices surged, breaking the $50 per ounce mark for the first time, with a year-to-date increase of 73% [1] - Gold prices fell over 2%, dropping below $3960 per ounce, a decline of nearly $100 from recent highs [1] - As of the latest update, gold was priced at $3976.38 per ounce and silver at $49.04 per ounce [1] Group 2: Oil Market - WTI crude oil futures fell by 1.66%, closing at $61.51 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures dropped by 1.55% to $65.22 per barrel [6] - A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas was approved, which may impact oil market dynamics due to geopolitical stability [6] Group 3: U.S. Economic Policy - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized the importance of community banks but did not comment on current economic conditions or monetary policy [7] - New York Fed President John Williams expressed support for further interest rate cuts within the year to mitigate risks of a labor market slowdown [7] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risks - Analysts noted that the recent surge in gold and silver prices was influenced by the U.S. government shutdown, which has become one of the longest in history [8] - The political turmoil in France and the election of a new Japanese leader have also contributed to increased market risk aversion [8] - The expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is seen as a positive factor for silver prices, with analysts predicting a potential upward shift in the price center for silver [9][10]
3800关口!海外ETF与期货资金流入促使国际金价走升
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-09-30 03:22
上周(9.22~9.26)黄金市场顶住强劲经济数据与美元反弹的压力而继续快速走升,海外ETF与期货资金 流入仍是支持走升的主要因素。9月29日,现货黄金续涨,首次触及每盎司3800美元。 市场观点,过往一周贵金属市场再次呈现爆发行情,国际金价周内继续走升接近3800美元。除黄金外, 银铂钯等其他贵金属均呈现井喷,激励整体贵金属人气蹿升。 周内公布的系列美国经济数据均表现良好,不仅PCE表现稳定,二季度GDP数据上修幅度也优于预期, 除了就业数据外似乎其他经济领域表现稳定,这一定程度上压降降息预期并提振美元。同时,所有在世 的美联储前主席,以及多位前美国财政部长、前白宫经济顾问和经济学家联名敦促美国最高法院,不要 允许美国总统特朗普解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克。他们认为,这样做会令美国经济健康岌岌可危,警告 称美联储独立性的任何削弱都可能导致通胀上升。周内在任美联储主席鲍威尔也再次重申美联储独立 性,并对后续降息持审慎态度。但这一切都未影响海外ETF和COMEX资金继续涌入贵金属市场,俄乌 冲突烈度升级与美国两党尚未就临时拨款达成一致,政府关门风险上升或是激励市场避险需求的重要原 因。 目前对国内金价稍显不利的因素 ...
现货黄金突破3800美元,国际机构预测将涨至4000美元甚至更高
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-09-30 02:17
从投行表态来看,高盛9月初发布报告中预计,基准情景下,到2026年中国际金价将飙升至每盎司4000美元;在"尾部 风险情景"下,金价或达每盎司4500美元;若美国私人持有的国债市场中仅1%的资金流入黄金,金价预计将接近每盎 司5000美元。 值得关注的是,随着黄金价格创下历史新高,美国财政部的2.615亿盎司黄金储备价值已超过1万亿美元,达到政府资 产负债表所示价值的90多倍。若按市价重估,将为美国财政部释放约9900亿美元资金。 【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间9月30日凌晨,国际贵金属期货普遍收涨,COMEX黄金期货涨1.42%报3862.90美元/ 盎司,COMEX白银期货涨0.97%报47.11美元/盎司;同时,现货黄金突破3800美元/盎司,续创历史新高。对此有市场 人士分析认为,受美国政府停摆阴影和美联储降息预期升温共同推动,市场避险需求增加。 有华尔街"新债王"之称的冈拉克就公开预测,金价将在今年年底前达到每盎司4000美元。休斯敦的理财顾问公司Joyce Wealth Management总裁JD Joyce更是直言,这种走势正是"不确定环境下投资者心理的写照"。 ...
KVB plus:在美联储利率决议前,黄金回调能否守住上涨趋势?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-17 10:47
黄金在美元回升前承压,美联储决议成为关键 美国人口普查局周二公布数据显示,8月零售销售连续第三个月强劲增长,增幅达0.6%,高于预期。这表明尽管经济活动放缓、通胀持续以及就业市场疲 软,美国消费者依然保持韧性。 不过,投资者几乎一致预计美联储将在两日会议结束时至少降息25个基点,以支撑走弱的就业市场。此外,市场已消化年内再度降息两次的可能性。除了关 键的降息决定外,市场还将密切关注最新的经济预测以及美联储主席鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上的讲话,以寻找未来降息路径的线索。在此期间,鸽派预期 或继续限制美元涨幅,并为黄金提供支撑。 地缘政治风险支撑避险需求 地缘局势依然紧张。根据《莫斯科时报》报道,乌克兰在夜间袭击了俄罗斯境内最大炼油厂之一。俄罗斯国防部同时宣布,俄军已控制位于第聂伯罗彼得罗 夫斯克地区的Novomykolaivka村,该地靠近顿涅茨克边界。 此外,以色列对加沙城展开已筹划多时的地面进攻,部队深入人口稠密的城区,而该地已连续数周遭受猛烈轰炸。这些事态发展可能进一步限制黄金的下跌 空间。 周三欧洲时段早盘,黄金(XAU/USD)自周二创下的历史高点——3700美元上方——进一步回落,刷新日内低点。美元在 ...
特朗普喊话“大幅降息”,金价一夜飙近3700!现在上车还来得及吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-16 10:54
美国总统特朗普一句"预计美联储将大幅降息",全球市场瞬间沸腾,黄金再次成为最大赢家!9月16日, 伦敦现货黄金价格一度飙升至3690美元/盎司历史新高,3700点关口成为现货黄金多头的下一目标! 特朗普的"降息风暴",吹高金价 本轮黄金暴涨的背后,是一场关于美联储利率的"政治博弈"。 当地时间9月14日,美国总统特朗普对记者公开表示,预计美联储将在本周会议上宣布"大幅降息"。 这番 预告立即引发市场震荡,黄金板块应声而起。 在地缘政治方面,特朗普保证立即解决的乌克兰战争和巴勒斯坦加沙地区战争没有取得解决问题的进展, 这也是周期性地让市场不安的因素。不仅个人投资者,全球央行也继续增持黄金。世界黄金协会数据显 示,今年第二季度,各经济体央行共增储黄金166吨。 金价还能涨多久?现在还能上车吗? 面对如此高位,很多投资者都在问:现在还能上车吗? 多家机构认为,在美联储降息落地前,黄金可能还会维持强势。从中长期来看,国际金价仍处于震荡上行 通道。 政策不确定性及地缘政治风险使市场避险需求持续存在,避险情绪将为金价提供长期支撑。 同 时,全球央行黄金配置意愿仍较强。 本周四(9月18日)凌晨2:00,美联储议息来临,巨 ...
年内大涨40%,黄金牛市还能走多远?
和讯· 2025-09-12 09:51
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in gold prices, driven by multiple factors including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, increased market demand for safe-haven assets, and ongoing purchases of gold by central banks [2][4][5]. Group 1: Drivers of Gold Price Increase - The recent surge in gold prices, with a rise of approximately 5% this month and nearly 40% year-to-date, is attributed to three main catalysts: weak U.S. economic data fueling rate cut expectations, heightened geopolitical risks increasing safe-haven demand, and sustained central bank gold purchases [4][5]. - U.S. economic indicators, such as a rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 2.9% in August and a decrease in non-farm payrolls, have intensified concerns about the economic outlook, reinforcing market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [4][5]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have led to increased uncertainty in global energy supply chains, driving more investment into gold as a safe-haven asset [5][6]. Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks worldwide have been actively increasing their gold reserves, with the People's Bank of China reporting a continuous increase for ten months, reaching 74.02 million ounces by the end of August [6]. - The European Central Bank has indicated that gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset globally, reflecting its growing importance as a reserve asset [5][6]. - A survey indicated that 95% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, with 43% planning to add more gold to their holdings [5][6]. Group 3: Future Price Predictions - Various institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs predicting potential prices reaching up to $5,000 per ounce under certain scenarios, driven by factors such as a weakening dollar and continued rate cuts [7][8]. - Current market expectations suggest a 90.1% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which could further support gold prices [8]. - The proportion of gold in central bank assets remains low compared to historical levels, indicating potential for further increases in gold holdings as countries pursue "de-dollarization" strategies [9].
刚刚 金价爆了!再创历史新高
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-09-06 02:40
Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 22,000 in August, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000, indicating a cooling labor market [1][2] - The unemployment rate in August reached 4.3%, matching market expectations and marking the highest level since October 2021 [1] - Following the employment data release, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September surged, with an 88.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut [1][2] Group 2: Gold and Silver Market - Gold prices reached a historical high, with spot gold rising by 1.5% to $3,600.15 per ounce, and a year-to-date increase of 37% [1][6] - The increase in gold prices is driven by strong expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, a weakening U.S. dollar, and rising market demand for safe-haven assets [6][7] - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased from 953.1 tons at the beginning of August to 981.9 tons by September 4, reflecting heightened investment interest [6][7] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Saudi Arabia is pushing OPEC+ to consider restoring more oil production to regain market share, which has led to a significant drop in international oil prices [4] - Following the announcement, Brent crude fell below $65 per barrel, marking a new low since August 18, while WTI crude dropped to $61.3 per barrel, the lowest since June [4]
涨势延续!纽约金价3日盘中再创历史新高
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-04 01:01
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent surge in gold prices driven by market demand for safe-haven assets and expectations of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts [1] - On December 3, 2025, the most actively traded gold futures price rose by $20.2, closing at $3,619.7 per ounce, marking an increase of 0.56% [1] - The highest intraday gold price reached $3,640.1 on the same day, indicating strong market activity [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department reported a decline in job vacancies to 7.18 million in July, the lowest level since March, suggesting a slowdown in the labor market and decreasing hiring [1] - The report's weakness supports dovish expectations for U.S. monetary policy and is favorable for gold bulls [1] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.24% to 98.142, further supporting gold prices [1] Group 3 - According to the World Gold Council, central banks globally purchased a net of 10 tons of gold in July, maintaining their status as net buyers despite a slowdown in purchasing speed [1] - Emerging markets continue to be stable buyers of gold [1] Group 4 - Surbiton Associates reported that Australia's gold production in Q2 2025 reached 76 tons, an increase of 3 tons or 4% from the previous quarter [2] - Australia's annual gold production has risen to its highest level since the 2022/2023 fiscal year, approaching the record of 328 tons set in the 1999/2000 fiscal year [2] - Silver futures for December delivery increased by $0.08, closing at $41.810 per ounce, with an intraday high of $42.290 per ounce [2]
宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250903
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 01:32
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The report is bullish on both gold and copper in the short - term and medium - term, with an intraday view of oscillating strongly for both [1] - Gold is expected to maintain a strong performance due to rising interest - rate cut expectations, the upward breakthrough of external gold prices, and increased safe - haven demand from the equity market [1][3] - Copper is expected to rise as overseas interest - rate cut expectations increase, the domestic peak season approaches, and there is strong industrial support [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, New York gold hit the $3600 mark, London gold reached above $3500, and Shanghai gold stood above 810 yuan. Since August 22 after the Jackson Hole meeting, gold prices have been on an upward trend [3] - **Driving Factors**: The dovish stance of Fed Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting, rising market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September (although there is a divergence on 2 or 3 rate cuts this year), the slowdown of the equity market (especially the Nasdaq and Shanghai Composite Index), and the upward breakthrough of New York and London gold above the upper edge of the oscillation range since the second quarter [3] - **Technical Analysis**: New York and London gold have strong upward momentum, while Shanghai gold is relatively weak due to RMB appreciation and appreciation expectations [3] Copper - **Price Performance**: Last night, Shanghai copper increased positions and rose, with the position rising to about 510,000 lots, and the main futures price standing above the 80,000 mark. Since the Jackson Hole meeting, copper has been rising, with an accelerating upward trend since Friday [4] - **Driving Factors**: The approaching Fed September FOMC meeting, the high - level oscillation of the domestic and foreign equity markets, the rotation of funds, and the upcoming peak industrial season in China (Golden September and Silver October) which may lead to stronger downstream demand [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The short - term copper price has strong upward momentum after breaking through the 80,000 mark with increased positions [4]