Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For gold, short - term and medium - term view is "sideways", intraday view is "sideways and weakening", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". Overseas market risk appetite has declined, recent US stocks have fallen, increasing market risk - aversion demand, which is positive for gold prices, but the strengthening US dollar index is negative. The market now expects only 2 interest rate cuts of 50 basis points this year, cooling the rate - cut expectation and strengthening the US dollar index. Attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole meeting [1][3]. - For copper, short - term and medium - term view is "sideways", intraday view is "sideways and strengthening", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". Overseas rate - cut expectation has cooled, strengthening the US dollar index and being negative for copper prices. Domestically, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market has cooled. However, the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased this Thursday, and as the peak season approaches, industrial support has strengthened [1][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the gold price moved sideways [3]. - **Driving Factors**: Overseas market risk appetite has declined, US stocks have fallen, increasing market risk - aversion demand, which is positive for gold prices. The US dollar index has continued to strengthen, which is negative for gold prices. The market now expects only 2 interest rate cuts of 50 basis points this year, cooling the rate - cut expectation and strengthening the US dollar index in the short - term [3]. - **Outlook**: Short - term, the gold price is expected to move sideways. Attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole meeting [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Last night, Shanghai copper oscillated strongly, and the main contract price approached the 79,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **Driving Factors**: Macroscopically, overseas rate - cut expectation has cooled, strengthening the US dollar index and being negative for copper prices. Domestically, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market has cooled. Industrially, the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased this Thursday, and as the peak season approaches, industrial support has strengthened [5]. - **Outlook**: As the peak season approaches and inventory decreases at a low level, the basis and calendar spread may continue to strengthen. The futures price should pay attention to the pressure at the 79,000 - yuan mark [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to show short - term strength due to the weakening US economy and rising market risk - aversion demand [1]. - Copper is also seen as having short - term strength as the domestic market atmosphere warms up and copper prices stabilize and rebound [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: On Friday night, New York gold rose and then fell, with the main contract price dropping from around $3500 to around $3450. The price difference between New York gold and London gold once widened to $100 [3]. - **Core Logic**: The US has added 1 - kilogram and 100 - ounce gold bars to the tariff - imposed category, causing the New York gold market to differ from London and Shanghai. Short - term New York gold is still in the oscillation range since the second quarter, and attention should be paid to the upper - edge pressure of the range [3]. - **Views**: Short - term: rising; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Overall: short - term strength [1][3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Last week, copper prices stabilized and rebounded, with a significant upward movement on Friday night [4]. - **Core Logic**: The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the weakening US dollar index are positive for copper prices, but the risk of overseas recession trading needs to be watched. The domestic market atmosphere has warmed up, which is conducive to the stabilization and rebound of copper prices. In the off - season of the industry, high upstream production, weak downstream demand, and copper inventory accumulation are negative for copper prices. Overall, macro factors are positive and industrial factors are negative, and copper prices are expected to remain strong [4]. - **Views**: Short - term: rising; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Overall: short - term strength [1][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: The US labor market has been cooling since April with a risk of further weakening. Fed officials hint at approaching rate - cut timing, and Trump's political pressure has raised the probability of a Fed rate cut in September to 90%, which is beneficial for precious metal prices. Trump's new round of tariffs on multiple countries is about to be implemented, and poor US economic data have increased market risk - aversion, supporting precious metal prices. Gold is expected to continue its strong performance, and it is recommended to hold long positions. Silver will generally follow gold but may be less resilient under the concern of a new economic recession [4]. - Medium - to - long - term: There is still a certain probability of the Fed cutting rates this year. With continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, central banks' gold purchases will continue, and the medium - to - long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Tracking - On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, London gold spot rose 0.2% to $3366.77/ounce, London silver spot rose 0.3% to $37.34/ounce, COMEX gold rose 0.2% to $3421.00/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.3% to $37.37/ounce. In the Chinese market, AU2510 rose 0.1% to 782.5 yuan/gram, AG2510 rose 0.4% to 9075 yuan/kg, AU (T + D) rose 0.2% to 778.8 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) rose 0.4% to 9045 yuan/kg [3]. - The price differences and ratios also changed. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 3.7 yuan/gram on August 5, 2025, with a - 14.4% change from August 4, 2025 [3]. Position Data - From August 1 to August 4, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR position rose 0.18% to 954.8 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV position fell 0.23% to 15021.8737 tons. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold decreased 9.84% to 281241 contracts, and the non - commercial short positions decreased 2.15% to 57645 contracts [3]. Inventory Data - On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, SHFE gold inventory rose 0.33% to 36009 kg, and SHFE silver inventory fell 1.45% to 1157291 kg. On August 4, 2025, compared with August 1, 2025, COMEX gold inventory rose 0.20% to 38793597 ounce, and COMEX silver inventory fell 0.01% to 506602109 ounce [3]. Market News and Analysis - The EU will suspend trade counter - measures against the US originally scheduled for August 7 for six months. Trump announced a significant increase in tariffs on India due to India's "substantial" imports of Russian oil. Fed's Daly said the time for the FOMC to cut rates is approaching, and there may be more than two rate cuts [4]. - On August 5, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.26% to 782.5 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 0.82% to 9075 yuan/kg [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 4, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.36% to 781.42 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.3% to 9039 yuan/kilogram [4]. - The significantly lower-than-expected non - farm payrolls in the US in July, along with the revised reduction of 258,000 jobs in May and June, highlight the sharp slowdown risk in the US labor market. Coupled with the July ISM manufacturing PMI being lower than expected and in the contraction range for five consecutive months, it triggers new concerns about a US economic recession, leading to a sudden increase in the expectation of a Fed rate cut. The market currently expects an 80% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, which drives the strong rebound of precious metal prices. Additionally, Trump's new round of tariffs on multiple countries and the poor US economic data boost market risk - aversion demand, supporting precious metal prices. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, which may continue to support the strong performance of gold prices. Silver generally follows gold but may perform weaker under the new economic recession concerns [4]. - In the medium - to - long - term, there is still a certain probability of a Fed rate cut this year. With continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified major - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, central bank gold purchases continue, so the medium - to - long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On August 4, 2025, London gold spot was at $3360.20 per ounce, London silver spot at $37.22 per ounce, COMEX gold at $3413.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver at $37.26 per ounce. Compared with August 1, 2025, the price increases were 2.1%, 1.7%, 2.1%, and 1.6% respectively. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also showed varying degrees of increase, with increases ranging from 1.3% to 1.4% [3]. - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: As of August 4, 2025, the spread between gold TD and SHFE active price was - 4.32 yuan/gram, and the spread between silver TD and SHFE active price was - 31 yuan/kilogram. Compared with August 1, 2025, the spreads had different degrees of change, with increases of 12.5% and 24.0% respectively [3]. Position Data - As of August 1, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 953.08 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 15056.66493 tons. Compared with July 31, 2025, they decreased by 0.15% and 0.04% respectively. The non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver also showed different degrees of decline [3]. Inventory Data - On August 4, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 35889.00 kilograms, an increase of 0.40% compared with August 1, 2025. The SHFE silver inventory was 1174273.00 kilograms, a decrease of 0.82% compared with August 1, 2025. The COMEX gold and silver inventories also showed slight increases [3]. Other Market Data - As of August 4, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 3.69%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 4.23%, the US dollar index was 98.69, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.14. Compared with August 1, 2025, they had different degrees of change, with the US dollar index decreasing by 0.14%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreasing by 3.20%, and the 2 - year US Treasury yield increasing by 21.89% [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a significant shift in the balance of bullish and bearish forces in the gold market, with spot gold prices rising strongly due to unexpected U.S. non-farm data, which increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and new tariff policies that stimulated market demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The article highlights three main factors driving the increase in gold prices: heightened global economic uncertainty, a weakening U.S. dollar index, and rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - Technical analysis shows that the daily chart has formed a bullish engulfing pattern, indicating a potential upward trend, while the 4-hour chart shows a bullish alignment of moving averages but requires a pullback for further upward movement [1] Group 2 - The suggested trading strategy is to buy on dips near the 3365-3360 range, with a stop loss at 3352 and a target of 3380-3400 [3] - The trading performance for July indicates a win rate of 78.8%, with a net profit of 190 points and a risk-reward ratio of 2.96:1, demonstrating the effectiveness of the trading system [3] - A summary table of July's trading results shows 52 opportunities with 41 successful trades, reinforcing the reliability of the trading strategy [4]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have seen a significant increase due to disappointing U.S. employment data and heightened market demand for safe-haven assets, with a weekly rise of nearly 2% [2]. Group 1 - On August 1, international gold prices rose by over 1% [1]. - The December gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange closed at $3,399.80 per ounce, marking a 1.53% increase and reaching a weekly high [2]. - The cumulative increase in international gold prices for the week was 1.92% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The tariff situation has heated up again, the market risk appetite has declined, and short - term market hedging demand has increased, causing the gold price to break through an important level [2]. - The jump in the implied annualized lease rate of London spot silver indicates a surge in investment demand leading to tight inventories, providing strong support for the silver price, which may continue to rise in the short term [2]. - Gold prices may still be driven by three factors: the Fed's dovish policy expectation suppressing real interest rates, the risk of US fiscal deficit monetization pushing up sovereign credit premiums, and geopolitical uncertainty maintaining hedging demand [2]. - The long - term supply - demand tightness of silver provides price support. However, due to the large uncertainty in inflation prospects and the swing of rate - cut expectations, and the silver price being at a high level since 2012, it may face some short - term correction risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 781.4 yuan/gram, up 7.84 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 9207 yuan/kilogram, up 167 yuan [2]. - The position of the Shanghai gold main contract is 191,083 lots, up 9,151 lots; the position of the Shanghai silver main contract is 448,095 lots, up 45,139 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract is 133,792 lots, up 2,823 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract is 147,543 lots, up 16,243 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 28,857 kilograms, up 4,272 kilograms; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver is 1,223,982 kilograms, down 79,611 kilograms [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 774.2 yuan/gram, up 3.5 yuan; the spot price of silver on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 9168 yuan/kilogram, up 182 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 7.2 yuan/gram, down 4.34 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 39 yuan/kilogram, up 15 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF position is 947.64 tons, down 1.16 tons; the silver ETF position is 14,758.52 tons, down 131.41 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC is 202,968 contracts, up 988 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CTFC is 58,521 contracts, down 4,879 contracts [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.62%, up 0.73%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 13.69%, down 0.36% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 19.53%, down 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 19.53%, down 0.03% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump has imposed tariffs on 25 trading partners in four batches from July 7 to July 12, with tax rates ranging from 20% to 50% [2]. - The 35% tariff on Canada does not apply to goods meeting the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement, and Canada will not double its retaliatory tariffs on steel and aluminum as originally planned [2]. - Trump has criticized Fed Chairman Powell multiple times this year for not announcing rate cuts, and the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 93.3% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The demand for safe-haven assets is expected to support gold prices, which have already seen a significant increase in the first half of 2025, marking the largest semi-annual gain since the second half of 2007 [1] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - In the first half of 2025, the London spot gold price rose by 25.7%, the highest semi-annual increase since the second half of 2007 [1] - The international gold price is anticipated to remain in a fluctuating upward channel in the second half of 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Demand Factors - Continued market demand for safe-haven assets is expected to provide long-term support for gold prices in the second half of 2025 [1] - Global central banks show a strong willingness to allocate gold, driven by increasing credit risks associated with the US dollar [1] Group 3: Strategic Asset Allocation - Central banks are likely to enhance their gold reserves due to strategic security and asset allocation needs [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Precious Metals**: The continuous escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict increases market risk - aversion demand, but the sharp strengthening of the US dollar index exerts pressure. Weak US retail sales and industrial output data in May strengthen the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The global central banks' gold - buying trend remains unchanged, supporting the gold price center in the long - term. With a mix of bullish and bearish fundamentals, short - term focus is on the evolution of the geopolitical situation and signals of monetary policy shift [3]. - **Copper**: The most important macro event in the short - term is the Fed's interest - rate decision. Although the interest rate is mostly priced in, the statement after the decision may affect copper prices. High prices above 78,000 yuan per ton may lead to a negative feedback and a situation of high prices but low trading volume. The position of Shanghai copper has declined from a high of 580,000 lots to below 550,000 lots. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate around 78,000 yuan per ton [15]. - **Zinc**: The supply side shows a slow - paced relaxation, as indicated by the rising TC and the month - on - month increase in zinc ingot production. However, the transfer from ore to ingot takes time, and the relaxation at the ore end has not fully translated to the ingot end. The demand side remains stable but weak in the traditional off - season. Short - term focus is on macro data and market sentiment, as well as inventory data [32]. - **Aluminum**: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is approaching the industry's upper limit with little change. The demand from end - user factories is significantly declining in the off - season, but the processing sector's start - up rate has only slightly decreased, with some inventory accumulation. The low inventory and continuous de - stocking are the core factors supporting aluminum prices in the short - term, with prices likely to be volatile and bullish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term [46]. - **Alumina**: The Axis mine in Guinea has not resumed production, and there is a possibility of short - term (1 - 3 months) production suspension. Although the overall impact on annual alumina supply is limited, there may be monthly shortages, pushing up ore prices. Alumina has shifted to inventory accumulation, and prices are under pressure [47]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The raw material market for scrap aluminum is tight, leading to high costs. The supply capacity is relatively excessive, and the demand growth may slow down in the second half of the year. The futures contract shows a BACK structure [48]. - **Nickel**: The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore remains firm, squeezing the profits of downstream products. The price of nickel iron has been further reduced, and the demand from some steel mills has weakened, leading to inventory accumulation. The stainless - steel market is sluggish, and the price of nickel sulfate has also decreased. The spread between nickel sulfate and pure nickel is widening [74]. - **Tin**: Tin prices have remained stable recently and are expected to continue so in the next week under the assumption of no major changes in the macro and fundamental aspects. Due to falling inventory, slower - than - expected recovery of Burmese tin mines, and decent short - term demand, tin prices may be slightly bullish with limited upside space [90]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot market for the lithium - battery industry is weak. The supply side sees stable lithium ore prices but a downward shift in the lithium carbonate market price. The demand side shows no significant improvement, and the terminal market has mixed performance [104]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: The market supply of the silicon industry chain is generally loose, and the furnace - opening expectations are gradually being realized. The supply side is slightly relaxed, and the demand side is stable. The polysilicon market has an increased production plan in July, while the downstream silicon wafer and battery - cell markets have reduced production and mainly make rigid purchases [118]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Data**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold price and gold - silver ratio are presented [4]. - **Correlation Analysis**: Relationships between gold and the US dollar index, gold and US Treasury real interest rates are shown [9][10]. - **Inventory and Fund Position**: SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories, as well as long - term gold and silver fund positions are provided [13][14]. Copper - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper futures (main contract, continuous, etc.) and LME copper 3M are given [16]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of different copper brands in various regions are presented [21]. - **Import and Processing Data**: Copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate TC, and copper scrap - refined copper price difference are provided [25][28]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data**: Shanghai copper and international copper warehouse receipts, and LME copper inventory data are shown [29][30]. Zinc - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc futures and LME zinc are provided [33]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of different zinc products in various regions are presented [38]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc warehouse receipts and inventory data are shown [42]. Aluminum - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, and aluminum - related futures contracts are provided [50]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of aluminum in different regions, as well as LME aluminum spot and spreads are presented [57][62]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum warehouse receipts and inventory data, as well as alumina warehouse receipt data are shown [68]. Nickel - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, changes, and trading volume of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures, as well as stainless - steel futures, are provided [75]. - **Spot and Inventory Data**: Nickel spot prices, warehouse receipt inventories, and nickel ore prices and inventories are presented [80][82]. - **Profit Data**: Profit margins of nickel - related products such as MHP - produced electrolytic nickel, sulfuric - nickel production, and stainless - steel production are shown [84][87]. Tin - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin futures and LME tin are provided [91]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of tin products are presented [97]. - **Inventory Data**: Warehouse receipt inventories of tin and LME tin inventory are shown [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, daily and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures contracts are provided [105]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide are presented [108]. - **Inventory Data**: Exchange inventories, including Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts and different types of lithium carbonate inventories, are shown [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of industrial silicon in different regions and grades are provided [119]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures contracts are provided [123]. - **Product Price Data**: Prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and silicone products are presented [131][134]. - **Output and Inventory Data**: Industrial silicon production in Xinjiang and Yunnan, as well as inventories of polysilicon and industrial silicon are shown [137][145][149].

Core Viewpoint - Despite a decrease in market risk aversion, there remains support for gold bulls, raising questions about short-term selling opportunities [1] Group 1 - The demand for safe-haven assets has diminished, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] - Gold prices may still find support due to underlying bullish factors, suggesting potential resilience in the market [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring short-term trading strategies, particularly regarding potential short positions in gold [1]