Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices have increased by over 20% this year, driven by geopolitical tensions, rising inflation pressures in the U.S., and uncertainties in global trade, leading to heightened market demand for safe-haven assets [1] Group 1: Price Movements - As of 24th January, the London spot gold price was reported at $5184.21 per ounce, down 0.83%, while the spot silver price was at $87.074 per ounce, down 1.30% [1] - The April gold futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange was reported at $5200.86 per ounce, down 0.47%, and the March silver futures price was at $86.925 per ounce, up 0.41% [1] Group 2: Year-to-Date Performance - In the five complete trading days leading up to 23rd January, the price of the main gold futures contract in New York increased by 3.55%, while the main silver futures contract rose by 11.04% [1] - Year-to-date, the main gold futures contract price has risen by 20.38%, and the main silver futures contract price has increased by 22.62% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market in 2026 is experiencing a scenario remarkably similar to that of 2019, with gold prices surpassing $5000 per ounce and exhibiting significant volatility, reflecting a tug-of-war between market euphoria and panic [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - In 2019, gold prices started around $1280 per ounce and rose to a peak of $1556, with an annual increase of over 18% [3]. - By January 2026, gold prices surged from approximately $4500 to a peak of $5598.75, marking a monthly increase of over 24% before experiencing a significant drop of over 9% on January 30 [3][5]. - The market sentiment in 2026 is characterized by rapid fluctuations, with prices oscillating around the $5000 mark, similar to the patterns observed in 2019 [1][5]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - The expectation of a shift in monetary policy is a key driver for the current market, mirroring the "preemptive rate cuts" by the Federal Reserve in 2019 [5]. - In January 2026, U.S. inflation data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, reigniting hopes for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which is anticipated to lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [5][10]. Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central bank gold purchases were a significant structural support for gold prices in 2019, and this trend has intensified in 2026, with over 90% of surveyed central banks expecting to increase their gold reserves [6]. - As of January 2026, the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 15 consecutive months, totaling 7.419 million ounces, while Poland's central bank approved a plan to purchase 150 tons of gold [6]. Group 4: Demand for Safe-Haven Assets - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is driven by geopolitical risks and concerns over high debt levels in major economies, similar to the conditions in 2019 [8]. - The World Gold Council noted a structural shift in demand, with both central banks and private investors increasingly seeking gold as a hedge against uncertainty [8]. Group 5: Price Dynamics and Volatility - The price base and volatility in 2026 differ from 2019, with gold starting at a higher price point of over $4500, leading to increased volatility [10]. - The fluctuations in gold prices are exacerbated by changes in margin requirements for futures contracts, which may limit speculative trading but could also amplify selling pressure during deleveraging [10]. Group 6: Changing Pricing Logic - The historical negative correlation between gold prices and real U.S. Treasury yields has weakened, with other supporting factors like strong central bank purchases and a broader investor base offsetting the impact of yield changes [10]. - The total value of gold in the global market is approximately $38.2 trillion, comparable to the total U.S. Treasury debt, indicating a rising status of gold in the global monetary system [10]. Group 7: Institutional Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term bullish outlook on gold remains prevalent among institutions, with forecasts for gold prices reaching as high as $7200 per ounce under extreme scenarios [15]. - Major investment banks have increased their holdings in gold ETFs following price corrections, reflecting confidence in sustained central bank demand and a continued rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve [15].

Core Viewpoint - The surge in geopolitical tensions and the weakening of the US dollar have led to a significant increase in precious metal prices, with silver and palladium reaching new highs, indicating a strong demand for safe-haven assets [1][1]. Group 1: Market Impact - On February 21, spot silver prices exceeded $84 per ounce, while New York silver futures surpassed $85 [1][1]. - Palladium futures also broke the $1,800 mark, reflecting heightened market interest in precious metals [1][1]. Group 2: Industry Implications - The increased demand for safe-haven assets is expected to benefit companies within the precious metals supply chain in the short term [1][1].

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold has surged, breaking the key psychological barrier of $5000 per ounce, driven by increased central bank purchases and heightened demand for safe-haven assets [1][3]. Group 1: Central Bank Purchases - In November 2025, global central banks net bought 45 tons of gold, which, while lower than October, is still above earlier levels in the year [2]. - By the end of November 2025, total gold purchases by central banks reached 297 tons, with Poland, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Turkey, and China being the main buyers [2]. - The Polish central bank has approved a plan to increase its gold reserves by up to 150 tons, bringing its total to 700 tons [2]. - As of December 2025, China's gold reserves stood at approximately 2306 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of about 0.93 tons, marking the 14th consecutive month of gold accumulation by the People's Bank of China [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks and Safe-Haven Demand - Increased geopolitical risks, particularly due to U.S. actions, have heightened market demand for safe-haven assets, supporting the rise in precious metal prices [3]. - The U.S. President's threats regarding trade with Canada and military movements in the Middle East have contributed to rising geopolitical tensions [3]. - The U.S. dollar index has fallen to around 97, a four-month low, leading to a trend of "de-dollarization" as markets seek more stable assets [3]. - Germany is reconsidering its gold reserves stored in the U.S., with calls to repatriate approximately 37% of its gold due to increasing global uncertainties [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Price Predictions - Various institutions maintain a bullish outlook on gold prices, with many raising their price forecasts [4]. - Jefferies Group predicts that gold prices could reach $6600 per ounce by 2026, while Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast from $4900 to $5400 per ounce [4]. - Huaxi Securities anticipates a price increase of 10% to 35% for gold in 2026 [4]. - The Oriental Jincheng Research Development Department expects gold prices to fluctuate between $4800 and $5200 per ounce before the Chinese New Year, with potential for a price correction if the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace does not meet expectations [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - On January 23, platinum and palladium prices rose overall, with platinum outperforming palladium. The PT2606 contract closed up 10.39% to 685.9 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed up 3.98% to 497.95 yuan/gram [6]. - Geopolitical risks are intensifying, increasing market risk - aversion demand. The weakening of the US dollar index also supports platinum and palladium prices. Fundamentally, there are no significant changes. High overseas platinum spot lease rates indicate its shortage, but the US decision to postpone import tariffs on key minerals may limit their upside potential [6]. - In the short - term, platinum and palladium prices are expected to be strong but with large fluctuations. In the long - term, platinum has a supply - demand gap while palladium tends to have a loose supply. The strategy suggests unilateral bottom - fishing for platinum or the [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Domestic Prices - Platinum futures main contract closing price: 685.9 yuan/gram, up 8.21% from the previous value [4]. - Spot platinum (99.95%): 672.5 yuan/gram, up 8.73% [4]. - Platinum basis (spot - futures): - 13.4 yuan/gram, down 12.70% [4]. - Palladium futures main contract closing price: 497.95 yuan/gram, up 2.94% [4]. - Spot palladium (99.95%): 483.5 yuan/gram, up 4.09% [4]. - Palladium basis (spot - futures): - 14.45 yuan/gram, down 24.94% [4]. International Prices - London spot platinum: 2656.3 dollars/ounce, up 7.60% [4]. - London spot palladium: 1904.886 dollars/ounce, up 2.77% [4]. - NYMEX platinum: 2654 dollars/ounce, up 7.50% [4]. - NYMEX palladium: 1954.5 dollars/ounce, up 3.77% [4]. Internal - External 15 - Point Spread - Dollar/yuan central parity rate: 6.9929, down 0.13% [4]. - Spread between Guangdong platinum and London platinum: 11.06 yuan/gram, up 89.14% [4]. - Spread between Guangdong platinum and NYMEX platinum: 11.64 yuan/gram, up 100.41% [4]. - Spread between Guangdong palladium and London palladium: 12.23 yuan/gram, up 14.49% [5]. - Spread between Guangdong palladium and NYMEX palladium: 1.40 yuan/gram, down 69.70% [5]. Ratios - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio: 1.3774, up 0.0672 [5]. - London spot platinum/palladium ratio: 1.3945, up 0.0626 [5]. Inventory - NYMEX platinum inventory: 662,888 troy ounces, unchanged [5]. - NYMEX palladium inventory: 216,266 troy ounces, unchanged [5]. Positions - NYMEX total platinum position: 78,337, up 0.86% [5]. - NYMEX non - commercial net long position in platinum: 15,124, down 14.04% [5]. - NYMEX total palladium position: 19,167, down 1.62% [5]. - NYMEX non - commercial net long position in palladium: 1,225, down 27.51% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Gold and copper are both expected to be strong in the long - term, with short - term and intraday fluctuations. Gold's short - term trend is dominated by the Greenland issue, and copper's short - term trend is highly correlated with precious metals [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the gold price rose first and then fell. New York gold once approached $4,900 per ounce and then dropped below $4,800 [3]. - **Core Logic**: The direct cause of the gold price increase was the sharp rise in the "Greenland" geopolitical risk. Trump threatened to impose tariffs on eight European countries. However, after reaching an agreement on the future cooperation framework for Greenland and the Arctic region, the short - term market risk - aversion demand decreased, leading to a decline in the gold price [3]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Long - term: strong [1][3] Copper - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the copper price rose first and then fell, and the night - session main contract price dropped to the 100,000 - yuan level [5]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term trend of copper is highly correlated with precious metals. The reversal of Trump's stance on the Greenland issue led to a decline in precious metals, which in turn drove down the copper price. At the industrial level, as the copper price dropped, the willingness of some industries to replenish inventory increased slightly, but the social inventory continued to accumulate, the monthly spread continued to weaken, and the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength remained [5]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Long - term: strong [1][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical and trade uncertainties continue to ferment, leading to a continuous increase in market risk - aversion demand. Precious metal prices have risen significantly, with London spot gold breaking through the $4,730 per ounce mark and London spot silver breaking through the $95 per ounce mark, both reaching new historical highs. [4] - In the short - term, due to Trump's decision to suspend new tariffs on key mineral imports and the risk - control measures introduced by the Shanghai Futures Exchange for gold and silver, price fluctuations may be relatively intense. [4] - In the long - term, the upward logic of precious metals has not reversed. The strategy should mainly focus on buying on dips or selling out - of - the - money put options. Gold prices are likely to continue to move upward in the medium - to - long - term, and long - term investors are advised to allocate by buying on dips. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - **内外盘金银行情**: On January 20, 2026, compared with January 19, London gold spot rose 0.8% to $4,713.69 per ounce, London silver spot rose 0.5% to $94.08 per ounce, COMEX gold rose 0.9% to $4,720 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.4% to $93.95 per ounce. Among domestic varieties, AU2602 rose 0.8% to 1056.94 yuan per gram, AG2602 fell 0.6% to 23,112 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) rose 0.8% to 1054.17 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) fell 0.4% to 23,108 yuan per kilogram. [3] - **价差/比价情况**: From January 19 to January 20, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 2.77 yuan per gram with a - 3.8% change, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was - 4 yuan per kilogram with a - 90.0% change, the gold internal - external price difference (TD - London) was - 6.76 yuan per gram with a - 0.5% change, and the silver internal - external price difference (TD - London) was - 725 yuan per kilogram with a 29.3% change. The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 45.73 with a 1.3% change, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 50.24 with a 0.5% change. [3] 3.2 Position Data - **ETF持仓**: From January 15 to January 16, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR increased by 1.01% to 1085.67 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV increased by 0.07% to 16,073.05851 tons. [3] - **COMEX非商业持仓**: For COMEX gold, from January 15 to January 16, 2026, non - commercial long positions increased by 7.92% to 296,183 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 3.97% to 44,945 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions increased by 10.37% to 251,238 contracts. For COMEX silver, non - commercial long positions decreased by 0.10% to 47,337 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 15.66% to 15,277 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions increased by 9.53% to 32,060 contracts. [3] 3.3 Inventory Data - **SHFE库存**: On January 20, 2026, compared with January 19, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 99,990 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.13% to 618,582 kilograms. [3] - **COMEX库存**: On January 16, 2026, compared with January 15, COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.01% to 36,135,901 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.98% to 429,156,441 troy ounces. [3] 3.4 Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - **汇率**: From January 19 to January 20, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by - 0.06% to 7.00. [3] - **美元指数及美债收益率**: From January 15 to January 16, 2026, the US dollar index increased by 0.03% to 99.37, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.84% to 3.59%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.68% to 4.24%. [3] - **其他市场指标**: The VIX increased by 0.13% to 15.86, the S&P 500 decreased by - 0.06% to 6,940.01, and NYWEX crude oil increased by 0.08% to $59.22. [3] 3.5 Market Review - On January 20, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.99% to 1,060.16 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 3.62% to 23,062 yuan per kilogram. [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - Due to the Greenland issue, Trump threatened to impose tariffs on European super - countries starting from February 1st, and foreign media reported that Europe might counter. The dual uncertainties in geopolitics and trade have increased the market's risk - aversion demand, leading to a sharp rise in precious metal prices. The long - term upward logic of precious metals remains unchanged, and strategies should focus on buying on dips or selling out - of - the - money put options [4] - In the medium to long term, the Fed is in an easing cycle, geopolitical uncertainties will continue, and the US dollar credit risk will increase. The allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, so the medium - to - long - term price center of gold is likely to move up. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price Tracking of Domestic and Foreign Gold and Silver - On January 19, 2026, London gold spot was $4674.54/ounce, London silver spot was $93.65/ounce, and compared with January 16, the price increases were 1.7% and 3.5% respectively. The prices of other gold and silver products also showed different degrees of increase [3] 2. Spread/Ratio - On January 19, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 2.88 yuan/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 40 yuan/kg. Compared with January 16, the changes were 35.8% and 185.7% respectively [3] 3. Position Data - As of January 16, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1085.67 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 16073.05851 tons. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold and silver also had different changes compared with January 15 [3] 4. Inventory Data - On January 19, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 99990.00 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory was 617760.00 kg, showing a decline compared with January 16 [3] 5. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On January 19, 2026, the US dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.01, the US dollar index was 99.37, and other indicators also had slight changes compared with the previous period [3] 6. Market Review - On January 19, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 1.54% to 1048.88 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 2.75% to 20189 yuan/kg [3]

1. Report Overview - Report Name: Hualian Futures Silver Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 18, 2025 [1] - Author: Zeng Ke [1] - Transaction Consultation Number: Z0022773 [1] - Qualification Number: F03118676 [1] 2. Market Performance - Price Increase: In 2025, the cumulative increases were 148% and 129% respectively [1] - Spread: Last week, the spread between domestic and foreign silver futures continued to climb, closing at a maximum spread of 2330; the London spot gold - silver ratio fell below 50 during the week and finally closed at 51.02 [1] 3. US Economic Indicators - Manufacturing PMI: In December, the US manufacturing PMI was 47.9, lower than the expected 48.4 and the previous value of 48.2 [1] - Employment: In December, non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 65,000, and the data for the previous two months was significantly revised downward; the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5% [1] - Inflation: In December, the US CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, the same as in November, in line with market expectations; the core CPI rose 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, the same as in November, lower than the expected 2.7% [1] - Interest Rate: Last week, the yield on the 10 - year US Treasury note rose 6 basis points, and the US dollar index continued to strengthen [1] 4. Silver Supply and Demand - Supply - demand Gap: In 2025, the global silver market's supply - demand gap is expected to exceed 100 million ounces, with the market in a state of supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year [1] - Investment Demand: As of January 16, 2026, the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, SLV, were 16,070 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.444% [1] - Inventory: The LBMA inventory has dropped to a historical low. As of December, there were about 27,817 tons of silver inventory, but most of it is silver physically linked to ETFs and cannot be freely circulated, so the available inventory is tight [1] 5. Market Views and Strategies - View: Last week, silver rose strongly and then adjusted, remaining at a high level overall. The market's safe - haven demand support remains strong. The supply side of silver has significant growth difficulties, while the demand side has obvious increments. The structural trend of silver has not changed, and the medium - to - long - term trend is expected to remain strong [9] - Strategy: It is recommended to hold long positions in AG2604 in the medium term [9] 6. Risk and Disclaimer - Risk: The report reminds investors to carefully judge the accuracy and integrity of the information and bear investment risks independently [1][11][13] - Disclaimer: The information in the report comes from publicly available information, and the report does not guarantee the completeness and authenticity of the information. It does not constitute the final basis for buying or selling relevant futures varieties [91]

Group 1 - Recent geopolitical tensions have led to simultaneous all-time highs in the prices of gold, silver, copper, and tin, a phenomenon not seen in the 20-year career of BMO analyst Helen Amos [1] - Concerns over regional conflicts, particularly involving Venezuela and Iran, are driving investor sentiment and supporting price increases in key strategic non-ferrous metals such as copper, tungsten, molybdenum, cobalt, and rare earth materials [1] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of significant weakness, with December's non-farm payrolls adding only 50,000 jobs, below expectations, and a downward revision of 76,000 jobs in the previous two months, indicating a potential for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [1] Group 2 - The Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) has risen by 1.18%, with notable increases in individual stocks such as Chihong Zn & Ge (up 6.09%), Jiangxi Copper (up 5.56%), and Jinchuan Group (up 5.15%) [1] - The Penghua Non-Ferrous ETF closely tracks the Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index, which includes 50 prominent securities in the non-ferrous metals sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index account for 51.65% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining and China Northern Rare Earth Group [2]