【今年以来#金价银价已涨超20%##春节假期金价银价大涨#】当地时间24日，部分投资者赶在贵金属价 格攀升至近期高点后获利了结，美元指数小幅反弹，国际金价在当天亚洲交易时段回落，白银价格在涨 跌间震荡。截至北京时间24日10时45分，伦敦现货黄金价格报5184.21美元/盎司，下跌0.83%，现货白 银价格报87.074美元/盎司，下跌1.30%；纽约商品交易所4月交割的黄金期价报每盎司5200.86美元，下 跌0.47%，3月交割的白银期价报每盎司86.925美元，上涨0.41%。春节假期国际金银期价显著上涨 今年 以来涨幅均超20%在刚刚过去的春节假期，地缘政治紧张局势持续、美国通胀压力反弹以及全球贸易前 景面临新的不确定性，大幅推升市场避险需求，国际金价和银价大幅上涨。截至当地时间23日收盘，美 国资本市场5个完整交易日里，纽约黄金期货主力合约价格累计上涨3.55%，白银期货主力合约价格累 计涨幅达11.04%。今年以来，纽约黄金期货主力合约价格累计上涨20.38%，白银期货主力合约价格累 计上涨22.62%。（总台央视记者 贺嘉婧） 来源：@央视财经微博 ...

历史会重演吗？ 2026年的黄金市场，正上演着与2019年惊人相似的一幕。 国际金价在2026年1月一举突破5000 美元/盎司，创下历史新高，随后又经历了单日暴跌超过9%的剧烈震荡。 眼下，金价在5000美元关口附近反复 拉锯，市场情绪在狂热与恐慌之间摇摆。 而越来越多的人开始谈论，当前的市场逻辑与2019年那轮趋势性牛市 有着惊人的重合度。 2019年，国际黄金价格从年初的1280美元附近起步，全年震荡上行，最高触及1556美元，年度涨幅超过了 18%。 那一年，美联储在7月、9月和10月连续三次降息，将利率从2.25?.5%下调至1.5?.75%。 全球超过30家央 行同步转向宽松货币政策。 与此同时，全球央行掀起了购金热潮，2018年和2019年连续两年净购金量均超过 650吨，为1971年以来的最高水平。 贸易紧张局势和全球经济放缓的忧虑，共同推升了市场的避险需求，资金 源源不断地流入黄金ETF等投资工具。 时间来到2026年。 年初的金价走势如同一部惊悚片：1月份，伦敦现货黄金价格从4500美元/盎司附近一路狂 飙，在1月26日首次突破5000美元心理大关，并在月末一度触及5598.75美元的历史 ...

受地缘政治紧张及美元走弱影响，2月21日现货白银突破84美元/盎司，纽约期银突破85美元，钯金期货 亦突破1800美元。市场避险需求激增，贵金属产业链企业短期受益。 （文章来源：） 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：陈平 受地缘政治紧张及美元走弱影响，2月21日现货白银突破84美元/盎司，纽约期银突破85美元，钯金期货 亦突破1800美元。市场避险需求激增，贵金属产业链企业短期受益。 （文章来源：） 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：陈平 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold has surged, breaking the key psychological barrier of $5000 per ounce, driven by increased central bank purchases and heightened demand for safe-haven assets [1][3]. Group 1: Central Bank Purchases - In November 2025, global central banks net bought 45 tons of gold, which, while lower than October, is still above earlier levels in the year [2]. - By the end of November 2025, total gold purchases by central banks reached 297 tons, with Poland, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Turkey, and China being the main buyers [2]. - The Polish central bank has approved a plan to increase its gold reserves by up to 150 tons, bringing its total to 700 tons [2]. - As of December 2025, China's gold reserves stood at approximately 2306 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of about 0.93 tons, marking the 14th consecutive month of gold accumulation by the People's Bank of China [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks and Safe-Haven Demand - Increased geopolitical risks, particularly due to U.S. actions, have heightened market demand for safe-haven assets, supporting the rise in precious metal prices [3]. - The U.S. President's threats regarding trade with Canada and military movements in the Middle East have contributed to rising geopolitical tensions [3]. - The U.S. dollar index has fallen to around 97, a four-month low, leading to a trend of "de-dollarization" as markets seek more stable assets [3]. - Germany is reconsidering its gold reserves stored in the U.S., with calls to repatriate approximately 37% of its gold due to increasing global uncertainties [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Price Predictions - Various institutions maintain a bullish outlook on gold prices, with many raising their price forecasts [4]. - Jefferies Group predicts that gold prices could reach $6600 per ounce by 2026, while Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast from $4900 to $5400 per ounce [4]. - Huaxi Securities anticipates a price increase of 10% to 35% for gold in 2026 [4]. - The Oriental Jincheng Research Development Department expects gold prices to fluctuate between $4800 and $5200 per ounce before the Chinese New Year, with potential for a price correction if the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace does not meet expectations [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - On January 23, platinum and palladium prices rose overall, with platinum outperforming palladium. The PT2606 contract closed up 10.39% to 685.9 yuan/gram, and the PD2606 contract closed up 3.98% to 497.95 yuan/gram [6]. - Geopolitical risks are intensifying, increasing market risk - aversion demand. The weakening of the US dollar index also supports platinum and palladium prices. Fundamentally, there are no significant changes. High overseas platinum spot lease rates indicate its shortage, but the US decision to postpone import tariffs on key minerals may limit their upside potential [6]. - In the short - term, platinum and palladium prices are expected to be strong but with large fluctuations. In the long - term, platinum has a supply - demand gap while palladium tends to have a loose supply. The strategy suggests unilateral bottom - fishing for platinum or the [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Domestic Prices - Platinum futures main contract closing price: 685.9 yuan/gram, up 8.21% from the previous value [4]. - Spot platinum (99.95%): 672.5 yuan/gram, up 8.73% [4]. - Platinum basis (spot - futures): - 13.4 yuan/gram, down 12.70% [4]. - Palladium futures main contract closing price: 497.95 yuan/gram, up 2.94% [4]. - Spot palladium (99.95%): 483.5 yuan/gram, up 4.09% [4]. - Palladium basis (spot - futures): - 14.45 yuan/gram, down 24.94% [4]. International Prices - London spot platinum: 2656.3 dollars/ounce, up 7.60% [4]. - London spot palladium: 1904.886 dollars/ounce, up 2.77% [4]. - NYMEX platinum: 2654 dollars/ounce, up 7.50% [4]. - NYMEX palladium: 1954.5 dollars/ounce, up 3.77% [4]. Internal - External 15 - Point Spread - Dollar/yuan central parity rate: 6.9929, down 0.13% [4]. - Spread between Guangdong platinum and London platinum: 11.06 yuan/gram, up 89.14% [4]. - Spread between Guangdong platinum and NYMEX platinum: 11.64 yuan/gram, up 100.41% [4]. - Spread between Guangdong palladium and London palladium: 12.23 yuan/gram, up 14.49% [5]. - Spread between Guangdong palladium and NYMEX palladium: 1.40 yuan/gram, down 69.70% [5]. Ratios - Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium ratio: 1.3774, up 0.0672 [5]. - London spot platinum/palladium ratio: 1.3945, up 0.0626 [5]. Inventory - NYMEX platinum inventory: 662,888 troy ounces, unchanged [5]. - NYMEX palladium inventory: 216,266 troy ounces, unchanged [5]. Positions - NYMEX total platinum position: 78,337, up 0.86% [5]. - NYMEX non - commercial net long position in platinum: 15,124, down 14.04% [5]. - NYMEX total palladium position: 19,167, down 1.62% [5]. - NYMEX non - commercial net long position in palladium: 1,225, down 27.51% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Gold and copper are both expected to be strong in the long - term, with short - term and intraday fluctuations. Gold's short - term trend is dominated by the Greenland issue, and copper's short - term trend is highly correlated with precious metals [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the gold price rose first and then fell. New York gold once approached $4,900 per ounce and then dropped below $4,800 [3]. - **Core Logic**: The direct cause of the gold price increase was the sharp rise in the "Greenland" geopolitical risk. Trump threatened to impose tariffs on eight European countries. However, after reaching an agreement on the future cooperation framework for Greenland and the Arctic region, the short - term market risk - aversion demand decreased, leading to a decline in the gold price [3]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Long - term: strong [1][3] Copper - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the copper price rose first and then fell, and the night - session main contract price dropped to the 100,000 - yuan level [5]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term trend of copper is highly correlated with precious metals. The reversal of Trump's stance on the Greenland issue led to a decline in precious metals, which in turn drove down the copper price. At the industrial level, as the copper price dropped, the willingness of some industries to replenish inventory increased slightly, but the social inventory continued to accumulate, the monthly spread continued to weaken, and the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength remained [5]. - **Viewpoint**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Long - term: strong [1][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical and trade uncertainties continue to ferment, leading to a continuous increase in market risk - aversion demand. Precious metal prices have risen significantly, with London spot gold breaking through the $4,730 per ounce mark and London spot silver breaking through the $95 per ounce mark, both reaching new historical highs. [4] - In the short - term, due to Trump's decision to suspend new tariffs on key mineral imports and the risk - control measures introduced by the Shanghai Futures Exchange for gold and silver, price fluctuations may be relatively intense. [4] - In the long - term, the upward logic of precious metals has not reversed. The strategy should mainly focus on buying on dips or selling out - of - the - money put options. Gold prices are likely to continue to move upward in the medium - to - long - term, and long - term investors are advised to allocate by buying on dips. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - **内外盘金银行情**: On January 20, 2026, compared with January 19, London gold spot rose 0.8% to $4,713.69 per ounce, London silver spot rose 0.5% to $94.08 per ounce, COMEX gold rose 0.9% to $4,720 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.4% to $93.95 per ounce. Among domestic varieties, AU2602 rose 0.8% to 1056.94 yuan per gram, AG2602 fell 0.6% to 23,112 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) rose 0.8% to 1054.17 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) fell 0.4% to 23,108 yuan per kilogram. [3] - **价差/比价情况**: From January 19 to January 20, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 2.77 yuan per gram with a - 3.8% change, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was - 4 yuan per kilogram with a - 90.0% change, the gold internal - external price difference (TD - London) was - 6.76 yuan per gram with a - 0.5% change, and the silver internal - external price difference (TD - London) was - 725 yuan per kilogram with a 29.3% change. The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 45.73 with a 1.3% change, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 50.24 with a 0.5% change. [3] 3.2 Position Data - **ETF持仓**: From January 15 to January 16, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR increased by 1.01% to 1085.67 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV increased by 0.07% to 16,073.05851 tons. [3] - **COMEX非商业持仓**: For COMEX gold, from January 15 to January 16, 2026, non - commercial long positions increased by 7.92% to 296,183 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 3.97% to 44,945 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions increased by 10.37% to 251,238 contracts. For COMEX silver, non - commercial long positions decreased by 0.10% to 47,337 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 15.66% to 15,277 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions increased by 9.53% to 32,060 contracts. [3] 3.3 Inventory Data - **SHFE库存**: On January 20, 2026, compared with January 19, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 99,990 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.13% to 618,582 kilograms. [3] - **COMEX库存**: On January 16, 2026, compared with January 15, COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.01% to 36,135,901 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.98% to 429,156,441 troy ounces. [3] 3.4 Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - **汇率**: From January 19 to January 20, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by - 0.06% to 7.00. [3] - **美元指数及美债收益率**: From January 15 to January 16, 2026, the US dollar index increased by 0.03% to 99.37, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.84% to 3.59%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.68% to 4.24%. [3] - **其他市场指标**: The VIX increased by 0.13% to 15.86, the S&P 500 decreased by - 0.06% to 6,940.01, and NYWEX crude oil increased by 0.08% to $59.22. [3] 3.5 Market Review - On January 20, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.99% to 1,060.16 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 3.62% to 23,062 yuan per kilogram. [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - Due to the Greenland issue, Trump threatened to impose tariffs on European super - countries starting from February 1st, and foreign media reported that Europe might counter. The dual uncertainties in geopolitics and trade have increased the market's risk - aversion demand, leading to a sharp rise in precious metal prices. The long - term upward logic of precious metals remains unchanged, and strategies should focus on buying on dips or selling out - of - the - money put options [4] - In the medium to long term, the Fed is in an easing cycle, geopolitical uncertainties will continue, and the US dollar credit risk will increase. The allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, so the medium - to - long - term price center of gold is likely to move up. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price Tracking of Domestic and Foreign Gold and Silver - On January 19, 2026, London gold spot was $4674.54/ounce, London silver spot was $93.65/ounce, and compared with January 16, the price increases were 1.7% and 3.5% respectively. The prices of other gold and silver products also showed different degrees of increase [3] 2. Spread/Ratio - On January 19, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 2.88 yuan/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 40 yuan/kg. Compared with January 16, the changes were 35.8% and 185.7% respectively [3] 3. Position Data - As of January 16, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1085.67 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 16073.05851 tons. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold and silver also had different changes compared with January 15 [3] 4. Inventory Data - On January 19, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 99990.00 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory was 617760.00 kg, showing a decline compared with January 16 [3] 5. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On January 19, 2026, the US dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.01, the US dollar index was 99.37, and other indicators also had slight changes compared with the previous period [3] 6. Market Review - On January 19, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 1.54% to 1048.88 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 2.75% to 20189 yuan/kg [3]

1. Report Overview - Report Name: Hualian Futures Silver Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 18, 2025 [1] - Author: Zeng Ke [1] - Transaction Consultation Number: Z0022773 [1] - Qualification Number: F03118676 [1] 2. Market Performance - Price Increase: In 2025, the cumulative increases were 148% and 129% respectively [1] - Spread: Last week, the spread between domestic and foreign silver futures continued to climb, closing at a maximum spread of 2330; the London spot gold - silver ratio fell below 50 during the week and finally closed at 51.02 [1] 3. US Economic Indicators - Manufacturing PMI: In December, the US manufacturing PMI was 47.9, lower than the expected 48.4 and the previous value of 48.2 [1] - Employment: In December, non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 65,000, and the data for the previous two months was significantly revised downward; the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5% [1] - Inflation: In December, the US CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, the same as in November, in line with market expectations; the core CPI rose 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, the same as in November, lower than the expected 2.7% [1] - Interest Rate: Last week, the yield on the 10 - year US Treasury note rose 6 basis points, and the US dollar index continued to strengthen [1] 4. Silver Supply and Demand - Supply - demand Gap: In 2025, the global silver market's supply - demand gap is expected to exceed 100 million ounces, with the market in a state of supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year [1] - Investment Demand: As of January 16, 2026, the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, SLV, were 16,070 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.444% [1] - Inventory: The LBMA inventory has dropped to a historical low. As of December, there were about 27,817 tons of silver inventory, but most of it is silver physically linked to ETFs and cannot be freely circulated, so the available inventory is tight [1] 5. Market Views and Strategies - View: Last week, silver rose strongly and then adjusted, remaining at a high level overall. The market's safe - haven demand support remains strong. The supply side of silver has significant growth difficulties, while the demand side has obvious increments. The structural trend of silver has not changed, and the medium - to - long - term trend is expected to remain strong [9] - Strategy: It is recommended to hold long positions in AG2604 in the medium term [9] 6. Risk and Disclaimer - Risk: The report reminds investors to carefully judge the accuracy and integrity of the information and bear investment risks independently [1][11][13] - Disclaimer: The information in the report comes from publicly available information, and the report does not guarantee the completeness and authenticity of the information. It does not constitute the final basis for buying or selling relevant futures varieties [91]

Group 1 - Recent geopolitical tensions have led to simultaneous all-time highs in the prices of gold, silver, copper, and tin, a phenomenon not seen in the 20-year career of BMO analyst Helen Amos [1] - Concerns over regional conflicts, particularly involving Venezuela and Iran, are driving investor sentiment and supporting price increases in key strategic non-ferrous metals such as copper, tungsten, molybdenum, cobalt, and rare earth materials [1] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of significant weakness, with December's non-farm payrolls adding only 50,000 jobs, below expectations, and a downward revision of 76,000 jobs in the previous two months, indicating a potential for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [1] Group 2 - The Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) has risen by 1.18%, with notable increases in individual stocks such as Chihong Zn & Ge (up 6.09%), Jiangxi Copper (up 5.56%), and Jinchuan Group (up 5.15%) [1] - The Penghua Non-Ferrous ETF closely tracks the Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index, which includes 50 prominent securities in the non-ferrous metals sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index account for 51.65% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining and China Northern Rare Earth Group [2]