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Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Gold prices fluctuated more sharply during the session, while silver prices continued a strong rebound. The employment market's downward risk has significantly increased, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 67.6%, slightly higher than before [3]. - The U.S. Senate passed the temporary appropriation bill, which eases concerns about short - term market liquidity shortages but implies an increase in U.S. government debt, which is positive for gold prices. Looking ahead, the market is pricing in weak employment data and moderate inflation expectations in advance, and the weakening dollar may boost precious metals. The escalating Middle East geopolitical situation provides safe - haven support, while the optimistic expectation of the U.S. government reopening may weaken safe - haven demand and resist the upward movement of gold prices. However, in the long - term, the increasing U.S. debt risk is in line with the long - term bullish logic for gold [3]. - Technically, the daily RSI shows that the upward momentum of gold prices is increasing, but short - term correction risks should be noted. The key resistance level for London gold is between $4150 - $4200, and the strong support is at $4000. The focus range for the SHFE gold 2512 contract is 900 - 960 yuan/gram, and for the SHFE silver 2512 contract is 11500 - 12200 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the SHFE gold main contract was 945.76 yuan/gram, down 3.12 yuan; the closing price of the SHFE silver main contract was 12073 yuan/kilogram, up 193 yuan [3]. - **Positions**: The main contract positions of SHFE gold were 124540 lots, down 5806 lots; those of SHFE silver were 235542 lots, up 1957 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the SHFE gold main contract were 107081 lots, down 3280 lots; those of SHFE silver were 128005 lots, up 8146 lots [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 89616 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver was 583060 kilograms, down 8824 kilograms [3]. 现货市场 - **Spot Prices**: The SMM gold spot price was 943.9 yuan/gram, down 6.4 yuan; the SMM silver spot price was 11991 yuan/kilogram, up 88 yuan [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of the SHFE gold main contract was - 1.86 yuan/gram, down 3.28 yuan; the basis of the SHFE silver main contract was - 82 yuan/kilogram, down 105 yuan [3]. Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: The gold ETF holdings were 1046.36 tons, up 4.3 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15088.63 tons, unchanged [3]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 266749 contracts, up 339 contracts; the silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 52276 contracts, up 738 contracts [3]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total quarterly supply and demand of gold were both 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons and 54.83 tons respectively. The total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces; the total global annual demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3]. Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 30.92%, up 0.08%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 27.03%, up 0.08% [3]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 24.6%, up 2.62%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 24.61%, up 2.65% [3]. Industry News - The U.S. Senate voted to pass the "Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act", taking a key step to end the government "shutdown". The bill will provide funds for the federal government until January 30 next year, revoke some lay - off measures during the "shutdown", and temporarily prevent further lay - offs. The U.S. House of Representatives plans to vote on the temporary appropriation bill passed by the Senate on Wednesday [3]. - The U.S. "small non - farm" data warned again. From the four - week period ending on October 25, the U.S. private sector reduced an average of 11250 jobs every two weeks, with a total reduction of 45000 jobs last month (excluding government employees), which is the largest monthly decline in employment since March 2023 [3]. - The optimism of U.S. small businesses dropped to a six - month low. The NFIB data showed that due to deteriorating profits, the optimism index of U.S. small businesses in October dropped 0.6 points to 98.2 [3].

Group 1 - The total amount of gold futures in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 87,816 kilograms, with no change from the previous day [1][2] - On November 3, gold futures opened at 924.60 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 927.28 CNY and a low of 911.18 CNY, closing at 922.58 CNY with a 0.47% increase [1] - Trading volume for the day was 341,261 contracts, with open interest decreasing by 5,518 contracts to 151,373 contracts [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in October has positively impacted the market, alongside progress in US-China trade negotiations, leading to a decrease in market risk aversion [2] - The US has decided to cancel the 10% tariff on Chinese goods, while the 24% retaliatory tariff will remain suspended for another year, with China adjusting its countermeasures accordingly [2] - Both parties have agreed to extend certain tariff exclusion measures, indicating ongoing negotiations in the trade relationship [2]

Core Viewpoint - International gold and silver prices have experienced a rapid decline, with gold dropping by 2.88% and silver by 4.37% as of October 17, 2023 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest report, spot gold is priced at $4,239.84 per ounce, while spot silver is at $51.895 per ounce [2]. - Year-to-date, international gold prices have surged approximately 60% [5]. Group 2: Risk Warnings - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has issued a warning regarding the recent volatility in international precious metal prices, urging members to enhance risk awareness and maintain market stability [5]. - Several banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank, have also advised investors to rationally manage their precious metal investments in light of increased market risks [7]. Group 3: Market Drivers - Analysts attribute the recent surge in gold prices to factors such as the excessive issuance of the US dollar, which has led to a decline in the credibility of US Treasury bonds, and the unpredictable trade policies of the Trump administration, increasing market demand for safe-haven assets [9]. - Concerns over US-China trade relations and the potential for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve are also driving up gold prices, as these factors contribute to a weakening dollar [10].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: The Shanghai copper contract continued to decline with decreasing positions, dropping nearly 700 yuan/ton during the day. Due to strong market risk - aversion demand, precious metals strengthened, while non - ferrous metals and stock indices were weak. A recent decline in gold prices led to a significant drop in copper prices. Short - term caution is needed for a potential fall after a peak in gold prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 84,000 yuan mark [6]. - **沪铝**: The Shanghai aluminum contract also declined with decreasing positions, falling nearly 100 yuan/ton during the day. With strong market risk - aversion demand, precious metals strengthened, and non - ferrous metals and stock indices were weak. Technically, the aluminum price faced significant pressure at the 21,000 yuan mark, and support at the 60 - day moving average should be monitored [7]. - **沪镍**: The Shanghai nickel contract showed weak oscillations with little change in positions. Given strong market risk - aversion demand, precious metals strengthened, and non - ferrous metals and stock indices were weak. Nickel was relatively resistant to decline in the sector due to its weaker macro - attribute. Short - term attention should be paid to the low since late September [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: High copper prices still suppressed terminal demand, resulting in weak new orders. The operating rate of the enameled wire industry rebounded by 3.87 percentage points to 75.2% this week, and new orders increased by 6.96 percentage points but had not returned to normal levels [10]. - **Aluminum**: As of October 16, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at $74.45/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average CIF prices of various types of bauxite from different regions remained stable compared to the previous trading day [11]. - **Nickel**: On October 17, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2511 contract. The mainstream premiums and discounts and prices of different types of nickel (Jinchuan electrolytic nickel, Russian nickel, Norwegian nickel, and nickel beans) were provided [12]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts related to copper included the copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][15][16]. - **Aluminum**: Charts related to aluminum were the aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: Charts related to nickel covered the nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [39][41][42].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by various factors including geopolitical tensions, U.S. government shutdown fears, and expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Price Movements - Since the beginning of the October holiday, gold prices have increased by over 100 yuan per gram, reaching 998.04 yuan per gram, a rise of more than 14% from 874.4 yuan per gram at the end of September [1] - International gold prices have risen approximately 60% this year, with spot gold prices in London hitting a historical high of $4,380.79 per ounce [2] Group 2: Market Drivers - Key factors driving the recent acceleration in gold prices include heightened market concerns over U.S.-China trade issues, expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and a potential liquidity crisis in the U.S. financial system [3][4] - The ongoing "de-dollarization" trend in the global monetary system is also contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices, with increased investment demand and central bank purchases [4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest maintaining a bullish outlook on gold prices due to the absence of clear negative factors, while also advising caution regarding potential market corrections [3][4] - Investors are encouraged to adopt a strategy of buying on dips, as the current market dynamics favor continued strength in gold and silver prices [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Spot gold prices approached $4,380 per ounce, marking a new high for five consecutive trading days [1] - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) saw a 2.59% increase, with a net inflow of over 45 million yuan in the first four trading days of the week [1] - The Shanghai Gold ETF has a management fee of 0.25% and a custody fee of 0.05%, both lower than the average for similar products, and supports T+0 trading [1] Group 2: Silver Market Developments - International silver prices surged, with spot silver reaching over $53 per ounce, approximately 12 yuan per gram, setting a historical high [2] - In India, silver prices hit a record of 190 rupees per gram, about 15.4 yuan, leading to inventory shortages in many jewelry stores [2] - Investment firm 兴业证券 expressed a bullish outlook on gold and silver prices, emphasizing their role as hedges against currency devaluation [2] Group 3: Banking Sector Concerns - U.S. regional banks faced significant declines due to rising market risk aversion, following reports of loan fraud incidents [2] - Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp disclosed potential losses in the millions from fraudulent loans to troubled commercial real estate funds [2]

Market Overview - On October 16, US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping over 300 points, down 0.65% to 30,333.59 [2][4] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Tesla falling over 1% while Nvidia rose over 1% [4] - Regional bank stocks experienced significant declines, with Zions Bancorp (ZION) down over 13% and Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL) down over 10% [4] Precious Metals - International precious metal prices surged, with London spot gold rising over 2% to $4,326.48 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures increasing over 3% to $4,344.30 per ounce, both reaching historical highs [5][6] - London spot silver also rose over 2%, setting a new record high [5] Oil Market - International crude oil prices fell across the board, with WTI and Brent crude oil futures both declining over 1%, reaching their lowest levels since early May [7] - Analysts suggest that geopolitical risks are having a diminished impact on oil prices, with fundamental factors likely to exert new downward pressure [7] Geopolitical Developments - US President Trump announced a lengthy phone call with Russian President Putin, discussing the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and subsequent US-Russia trade issues, with a face-to-face meeting planned in Budapest [8][9] - The meeting aims to facilitate direct negotiations between Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky regarding the conflict [10]

Core Insights - Recent surge in gold prices, with spot gold surpassing $4100 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 56.41% [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also risen significantly, with several brands exceeding 1200 RMB per gram [1] - Factors driving gold price increase include U.S. interest rate expectations, government shutdown concerns, and ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions [2] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Spot gold reached $4104.375 per ounce, with a daily drop of 0.12% and a peak of $4179.748 per ounce [1] - COMEX gold futures reported at $4124.8 per ounce, down 0.20%, with a similar year-to-date increase of 56.28% [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices from brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Miao have surpassed 1200 RMB per gram [1] Group 2: Driving Factors - Increased market expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts, with several Federal Reserve officials signaling dovish stances [2] - Concerns over U.S. government shutdown have heightened market fears regarding U.S. fiscal sustainability, boosting safe-haven demand for gold [2] - Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are further elevating market risk aversion, contributing to the upward trend in gold prices [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The U.S. fiscal risks and government shutdown concerns are expected to provide core support for gold prices [2] - Continued expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts may pressure the U.S. dollar, further lowering the cost of holding gold [2] - Uncertainties surrounding tariff policies and strong global central bank demand for gold are likely to sustain market interest [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the gold market, highlighted by a rapid price drop from a historical high, signals potential risks and a shift in investor sentiment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On October 9, gold prices reached a record high of $4059.31 per ounce, but fell below $4000 within 24 hours, hitting a low of $3945.03 [1]. - The drop in gold prices is linked to the easing of geopolitical tensions following a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, which reduced the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Technical indicators suggest that the current upward trend in gold prices is losing momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 83.41 indicating an overbought condition [3]. Group 2: Historical Context - Historical patterns show that significant price increases in gold are often followed by corrections, with past bull markets experiencing notable declines [4]. - The current bull market in gold is driven by a combination of trend-following capital, safe-haven demand, and supply-demand changes, influenced by monetary policy and geopolitical factors [4]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - Different types of investors are reacting differently to the volatility; central banks are maintaining their gold purchases, with emerging market central banks increasing their gold holdings [5]. - Long-term institutional investors remain calm amid the fluctuations, while leveraged traders may face significant risks due to the volatility [5]. - Predictions for future gold prices vary widely, with Bank of America warning of a potential drop to $3525 in Q4, while Goldman Sachs forecasts a rise to $4900 by the end of 2026 [5].