2025.08.21 本文字数：2662，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 周艾琳 走近Westfield世贸中心购物中心，它像是一颗嵌在曼哈顿钢筋水泥丛林中的"白色心脏"。而中国最火 的"新消费"代表泡泡玛特（09992.HK）就位于这座曼哈顿最大的购物中心内。 （纽约世贸中心购物中心 摄影/周艾琳） 泡泡玛特门前人流攒动，其中有搜索热门款的中国消费者，也有众多美国消费者兴致勃勃地选购心仪的 IP。同中国门店类似，热门IP都已售罄，不同的是，美国当地的售价最低也达到19.9美元（折合143元 人民币），而部分商品售价都在35~40美元。 "热门款可以去北美官方APP、网站预购，基本几天内会提醒你补货。"一位带着儿子前来购物的非裔美 国女子对第一财经记者称。"祝你好运。"她友好地表示。说完便拿着买到的IP走出了门店。 （位于纽约世贸中心购物中心内的泡泡玛特门店 摄影/周艾琳） 海外市场的火爆也从其财报中可见一斑。2025年上半年，泡泡玛特营收同比增长204%，净利润同比增 长397%。净利润较华尔街的预期高出约5%，大中华区营收同比增长135%，美洲地区营收同比增长 1142%。年初至今，泡泡玛特港股的股 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the current market index is not overly expensive, as the valuation metrics suggest there is still room for growth despite recent highs [1][10][17] - The analysis highlights that the "Sharpe ratio differential" between equity and bond funds is near zero, indicating potential for further upward movement in the market [1][17] - Recent data shows a significant decrease in household deposits, with a reduction of 1.11 trillion yuan in July, suggesting a shift of funds into the market [1][21] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that single valuation indicators reaching their peak should be approached with caution, as a lack of divergence in valuations typically signals a market top [2][28][30] - The current PB (Price-to-Book) ratio for the A-share market is below 80% of its historical range, indicating that the market is not excessively valued when viewed through this lens [2][31] - The report suggests that the "buy the dip" strategy is particularly effective during upward economic cycles, with specific entry points identified after a 15-20% pullback from previous highs [3][43][42] Group 3 - The report identifies sectors with high earnings growth potential, such as semiconductors and innovative pharmaceuticals, as suitable for the "buy the dip" strategy [3][43][47] - It notes that industries with a PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth) ratio below 1.5 and a projected growth rate above 30% are favorable for investment [3][52][47] - The analysis indicates that sectors with stable earnings and low volatility, such as food processing and pharmaceuticals, are also worth monitoring for investment opportunities [52][52]

作 者 | The Alpha Sieve 编译 | 华尔街大事件 2025 年对于电信巨头 Verizon( NYSE: VZ ) 的股东来说是一个相当不错的一年。虽然大盘股基 准下跌了 14%，但其他电信股的跌幅较小（平均而言）。 Verizon逆势而上，年初至今实现了 超过 6% 的正收益。 鉴于 Verizon近期业绩达到华尔街预期的记录，我们怀疑Verizon的股东未必会处于最无所畏惧 的状态。需要明确的是，这种不确定性与盈利表现无关， Verizon过去连续10个季度的业绩都 达到或超过预期（相当于平均每季度每股收益超出预期 1.4% ）。更确切地说，这是因为 Verizon的营收表现相当不稳定，在过去10个季度中，只有50%的时间超出预期。总而言之， Verizon是一家平均每季度营收低于预期0.2%的公司，因此，如果它在第一季度的表现能好于 预期，市场应该会看好它。 这对股息和债务负担意味着什么？假设他们不回购任何股票（他们打算只有当债务与EBITDA 之比降至2.25倍以下时才恢复回购），并继续保持每年2%的股息增长，那么他们今年的现金股 息流出可能会达到115亿美元，而他们预期的自由现金流 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying mispricing in asset prices across different economic cycles to find investment opportunities and risks [2]. Group 1: Economic Cycles and Investment Timing - The Kondratiev cycle lasts approximately 50-60 years and involves technological revolutions, while the Juglar cycle is about 10 years and relates to equipment investment [3]. - The current economic situation indicates that after experiencing a downturn in the real estate sector and high inventory levels in 2022, a recovery phase is expected to begin in the second half of 2024, coinciding with a global inventory cycle bottoming out [4]. - Historical data shows that when the M1-M2 growth rate drops below 10%, it typically signals a market bottom, with a recovery expected after September 2024 [5]. Group 2: Price and Profit Relationships - Price movements generally lead inventory changes by 1-3 quarters, while corporate profits follow inventory changes by 2-4 quarters, indicating a sequential relationship in the economic cycle [6]. - The consumer electronics sector has experienced a peak in revenue growth since Q1 2021, followed by a decline, entering a destocking phase until 2024, when a recovery is anticipated due to AI technology and policy support [6]. Group 3: Valuation and Identifying Opportunities - During earnings season, companies that exceed performance expectations should be closely monitored to assess the reasons behind their outperformance and determine their position in the economic cycle [7]. - The focus should be on two types of companies: undervalued growth stocks, particularly in technology, and companies facing pessimistic pricing due to cyclical downturns, which may rebound as conditions improve [8][9]. - A thorough data validation process is necessary to assess the sustainability of the identified valuation discrepancies, including monitoring high-frequency data such as inventory levels and gross margins [9]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - A combination of top-down macroeconomic analysis and bottom-up company performance evaluation is recommended for selecting stocks, allowing for both short-term and long-term investment opportunities [10].