↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：羽界之家 来源：雪球 前两天，我经历了一件并不愉快、但让我思考了很久的事情。朋友突然找我，说能不能"帮帮他"。 他说他之前在茅台上割了三次，现在又买了紫金矿业被套牢，内心非常痛苦，完全无法原谅自己。他反复追问我，能不能跟着我投资。 我跟他说， 短期被套是投资里的常态 ，没有人能做到买入就涨、卖出就跌。我也跟他说，我写过很多文章，你如果能看懂、学会，其实就是在"跟 着我投资"。 但他接着说了一句话，让我非常无语，也让我警惕： "有些文章我看不懂。" 他并不是在问问题，而是在反复痛恨自己的投资失误，情绪已经完全失控，甚至说出了一些让我必须立刻拉开边界的话。 我只能明确告诉他： 如果你在一个高频犯错、情绪主导的状态里，还不断放大仓位、放大期待，那结果往往不是"学会了投资"，而是被市场反复惩罚。 二、合格的投资者，永远把风险放在第一位 我很同情他的处境，但 我帮不了他 。不是因为标的，而是因为 他的投资心态本身，就不是任何人能"带"的状态 。 而且，说得直白一点——我们只是萍水相逢，对陌生 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This year after the New Year's Day, the A - share spring market is underway and may be volatile and bullish, affected by factors such as policy implementation, liquidity, and the performance of the Hong Kong stock market [1][4][7]. - After the holiday, technology growth and some cyclical industries may be relatively dominant, with continuous upward industrial trends and policy support [1][26]. - After the holiday, it is recommended to continue to allocate industries such as technology, some cyclical and consumer sectors on dips [1][38][46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Post - holiday Spring Market is Underway 3.1.1 Factors Affecting Post - holiday A - share Movement - Since 2010, in 11 out of 16 years, the Shanghai Composite Index showed the same upward or downward trend in the 10 trading days before and after the holiday. The post - holiday short - term market performance is affected by policies, external events, liquidity, and the performance of the Hong Kong stock market [1][4]. - Positive policies and external events may lead to a short - term rise in the post - holiday A - shares, while tight policies or negative external events may result in weak performance. Liquidity also plays a key role, and the performance of the Hong Kong stock market during the holiday has a certain impact on the post - holiday A - shares [4]. 3.1.2 This Year's A - share Spring Market is Underway and May be Volatile and Bullish - Positive policies may continue to be implemented after the holiday, and external risks may be limited. The "two new" policies are accelerating implementation, local two - sessions may be held intensively, and consumption - stimulating policies may be introduced. Externally, the Fed may cut interest rates in January, Sino - US relations may remain stable, and geopolitical conflicts may ease [7][8]. - Post - holiday short - term liquidity may be further relaxed. Overseas, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates, and the RMB exchange rate may be strong. Domestically, the central bank may cut interest rates and reserve requirements. Also, stock market funds may accelerate inflow [9]. - The Hong Kong stock market performed strongly during the New Year's Day holiday, which may boost the post - holiday A - shares. The correlation coefficient between the Hong Kong stock market's rise and fall during the New Year's Day holiday and the Shanghai Composite Index's rise and fall in the 10 trading days after the holiday is about 0.5 [18][19]. - The post - holiday economy and corporate profits are still in weak recovery. The economy is in a weak recovery state, and corporate profits may continue to recover, although the industrial enterprise profits in November continued to decline [21]. 3.2 Industry Allocation: Focus on Growth after the Holiday 3.2.1 Technology Growth and Some Cyclical Industries May be Relatively Dominant after New Year's Day - Historically, policy and industrial trends drive pre - holiday strong industries to maintain their strength after the holiday. Pre - holiday leading industries may switch due to high sentiment or market adjustments. Industries with continuous strength around the New Year's Day usually have a relatively low historical quantile of trading volume [26]. - This year, the industrial trends of technology growth and some cyclical industries may continue to rise after the holiday. The pre - holiday leading cyclical industries have neutral - low sentiment, while the technology growth industries have high sentiment [26]. 3.2.2 Currently, the PEG of Electric Power, Media, and Automobile is Low - Among the primary growth industries, the predicted PEG of electric power equipment, media, and automobile is relatively low, at 0.64, 0.86, and 1.13 respectively. The historical quantiles of trading volume of medicine, computer, media, and automobile are low [40]. - Among the secondary growth industries, the sentiment of traditional Chinese medicine, biological products, automobile services, and chemical pharmaceuticals is low. The predicted PEG of nautical equipment, games, commercial vehicles, and wind power equipment is relatively low [44]. 3.2.3 After the Holiday, it is Recommended to Continue to Allocate Industries such as Technology, Some Cyclical and Consumer Sectors on Dips - It is recommended to allocate industries with upward policy and industrial trends, such as machinery (robotics), military (commercial aerospace), electric power (nuclear fusion, energy storage), media (AI applications, games), computer (AI applications, satellite Internet), electronics (semiconductors, AI hardware), communication (AI hardware), and medicine (innovative drugs) on dips [46]. - In the short term, it is recommended to allocate sectors that may make up for lost ground and have potentially improved fundamentals, such as securities and consumer sectors (food, retail, social services) on dips [56].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impressive growth and performance of Pop Mart, a leading player in the "new consumption" sector in China, particularly in the overseas market, showcasing its strong IP innovation and market expansion strategies [9][10][12]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Pop Mart reported revenue of 13.88 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 204%, and an adjusted net profit of 4.71 billion RMB, up 362.8% [10]. - The revenue from the Greater China region was 8.28 billion RMB, growing by 135.2%, while the Americas saw a staggering revenue increase of 1142%, reaching 2.26 billion RMB [10][12]. - The company's stock price has surged by 250% year-to-date, reflecting strong investor confidence [9]. Market Expansion - Pop Mart's North American market focus has led to the opening of 19 new stores, bringing the total to 41, with offline revenue increasing by 744.3% to 840 million RMB [14]. - The company has implemented a free shipping policy for orders over 29.9 USD, enhancing its online sales, which now account for 40% of total revenue [14]. IP Innovation - Pop Mart's success is attributed to its strong IP innovation capabilities, with key IPs like LABUBU generating 4.81 billion RMB in revenue, accounting for 34.7% of total sales [12]. - The company faces the challenge of sustaining revenue growth from its existing top IPs while developing new ones to maintain its market position [16]. Valuation and Market Outlook - Despite impressive growth, Pop Mart's valuation exceeds a 100x PE ratio, raising concerns about sustainability if future EPS growth does not meet expectations [16]. - Analysts suggest that the longevity of individual IPs will be crucial for maintaining high valuations, with the potential for significant market growth compared to established brands like Sanrio and LEGO [17][18].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the current market index is not overly expensive, as the valuation metrics suggest there is still room for growth despite recent highs [1][10][17] - The analysis highlights that the "Sharpe ratio differential" between equity and bond funds is near zero, indicating potential for further upward movement in the market [1][17] - Recent data shows a significant decrease in household deposits, with a reduction of 1.11 trillion yuan in July, suggesting a shift of funds into the market [1][21] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that single valuation indicators reaching their peak should be approached with caution, as a lack of divergence in valuations typically signals a market top [2][28][30] - The current PB (Price-to-Book) ratio for the A-share market is below 80% of its historical range, indicating that the market is not excessively valued when viewed through this lens [2][31] - The report suggests that the "buy the dip" strategy is particularly effective during upward economic cycles, with specific entry points identified after a 15-20% pullback from previous highs [3][43][42] Group 3 - The report identifies sectors with high earnings growth potential, such as semiconductors and innovative pharmaceuticals, as suitable for the "buy the dip" strategy [3][43][47] - It notes that industries with a PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth) ratio below 1.5 and a projected growth rate above 30% are favorable for investment [3][52][47] - The analysis indicates that sectors with stable earnings and low volatility, such as food processing and pharmaceuticals, are also worth monitoring for investment opportunities [52][52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the small home appliance industry, anticipating a recovery driven by government subsidies in Q2 [2][51]. Core Insights - The 2025 government subsidy policy has been extended, covering additional small home appliance categories, which is expected to accelerate market recovery [11][12]. - The policy is driving an increase in average prices within the kitchen small appliance sector, indicating an upward trend in industry prosperity [15]. - The valuation levels of the sector are currently low, suggesting a potential turning point in Q2 [39][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Government Subsidy Policy Extension - The 2025 government subsidy policy has expanded to include microwave ovens, water purifiers, dishwashers, and rice cookers, with some regions extending to more small appliance categories [11][12]. - The subsidy encourages the purchase of high-efficiency products, with a 20% subsidy for first-level energy efficiency products, promoting a shift towards higher-end and energy-saving products [11][12]. 2. Price Increase Driven by Policy - The government subsidy has significantly stimulated the sales growth of kitchen small appliances, with a 12% sales growth observed in Q4 2024 and a continuation of this trend into Q1 2025 [15]. - In Q1 2025, the kitchen small appliance sector recorded sales of 8.83 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 6%, while the average price rose by 14% [15][18]. 3. Low Valuation Levels and Potential Recovery - Companies like Xinbao, Supor, and Bear are currently at historical low valuation percentiles, indicating potential for recovery as the market conditions improve [39][42]. - As of May 16, 2025, the static valuation levels for Xinbao, Bear, and Supor were 11.4, 25.9, and 19.9 times, respectively, which are considered low [42].

Core Viewpoint - Verizon has shown resilience in a challenging market, achieving over 6% positive returns year-to-date, contrasting with a 14% decline in the broader market [1] Financial Performance - Verizon has consistently met or exceeded earnings expectations for the past 10 quarters, averaging a 1.4% beat per quarter, but has only exceeded revenue expectations 50% of the time, with an average revenue miss of 0.2% per quarter [2] - Key metrics to watch for the upcoming first quarter include expected revenue of $33.3 billion and a standardized EPS of $1.15, with anticipated year-over-year revenue growth of less than 1% [4] - The company is facing increased competitive pressure from AT&T and T-Mobile, which may lead to higher customer churn rates and stagnant postpaid net additions despite a strong fourth quarter [4][6] Strategic Initiatives - Verizon's management is focusing on enhancing customer experience through initiatives like the myPlan and personalized services, which may help mitigate potential user growth challenges [6] - Price increases are expected to generate approximately $1 billion in incremental revenue, with wireless service revenue projected to grow 2-2.8% year-over-year [6] Debt and Cash Flow - Verizon has a significant debt burden of $144 billion, with 82% being unsecured, leading to scrutiny over its ability to generate free cash flow [7] - Expected free cash flow for FY25 is projected to decline by about 9% to $18 billion, with cash dividend outflows potentially reaching $11.5 billion [8][9] Valuation and Market Position - Verizon's current dividend yield of over 6% is attractive but not significantly better than the industry average of 6.2% [9][10] - The stock's forward valuation is not considered cheap, trading at a premium compared to its five-year average rolling P/E ratio of 8.4 times [12] - Expected EPS growth for the year is less than 2%, resulting in a high PEG ratio of over 5, indicating that the current premium may not be justified [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying mispricing in asset prices across different economic cycles to find investment opportunities and risks [2]. Group 1: Economic Cycles and Investment Timing - The Kondratiev cycle lasts approximately 50-60 years and involves technological revolutions, while the Juglar cycle is about 10 years and relates to equipment investment [3]. - The current economic situation indicates that after experiencing a downturn in the real estate sector and high inventory levels in 2022, a recovery phase is expected to begin in the second half of 2024, coinciding with a global inventory cycle bottoming out [4]. - Historical data shows that when the M1-M2 growth rate drops below 10%, it typically signals a market bottom, with a recovery expected after September 2024 [5]. Group 2: Price and Profit Relationships - Price movements generally lead inventory changes by 1-3 quarters, while corporate profits follow inventory changes by 2-4 quarters, indicating a sequential relationship in the economic cycle [6]. - The consumer electronics sector has experienced a peak in revenue growth since Q1 2021, followed by a decline, entering a destocking phase until 2024, when a recovery is anticipated due to AI technology and policy support [6]. Group 3: Valuation and Identifying Opportunities - During earnings season, companies that exceed performance expectations should be closely monitored to assess the reasons behind their outperformance and determine their position in the economic cycle [7]. - The focus should be on two types of companies: undervalued growth stocks, particularly in technology, and companies facing pessimistic pricing due to cyclical downturns, which may rebound as conditions improve [8][9]. - A thorough data validation process is necessary to assess the sustainability of the identified valuation discrepancies, including monitoring high-frequency data such as inventory levels and gross margins [9]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - A combination of top-down macroeconomic analysis and bottom-up company performance evaluation is recommended for selecting stocks, allowing for both short-term and long-term investment opportunities [10].