Summary of Shanghai Real Estate Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focuses on the Shanghai real estate market, particularly the trends in housing prices and transaction volumes from 2021 to 2026 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Trends**: - After a significant decline in housing prices from 2021 to 2024, a slowdown in the decline is expected in 2025, with an average drop of about 10% for ordinary residential properties and 20% for high-end properties priced over 10 million [1][3][30]. - The average monthly transaction volume in November 2025 is projected to reach approximately 22,000 units, comparable to 2019 levels [1][5][14]. 2. **Transaction Volume**: - The transaction volume for second-hand homes in Shanghai is expected to be significantly higher in 2025 compared to 2024, with November 2025 showing a notable increase in sales [1][5][29]. - A slight increase in transaction volume to about 21,000 units is anticipated for 2026, with overall housing prices remaining stable [2][20]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: - New policies have led to a reduction of approximately 20,000 listings in Shanghai, tightening the bargaining space to within 5% [1][7][8]. - The introduction of the "Nine Hui Fang" project by Lianjia has further reduced the negotiation space by promoting properties with prices close to market transaction prices [8][9]. 4. **Buyer Sentiment**: - Some buyers are hesitant due to concerns about further price declines, particularly in the high-end market [10][28]. - Tax reductions and low loan interest rates have attracted some buyers, especially for properties priced under 2 million [10][11]. 5. **Property Segmentation**: - Properties priced below 3 million account for over 60% of transactions, while those above 10 million represent less than 5% [4][28]. - Small units have seen a price drop of about 5%, while larger units may experience declines of up to 10% [13][32]. 6. **Future Market Outlook**: - The market's stability is contingent on employment and economic conditions, with potential speculation arising from the full lifting of purchase restrictions [2][20][33]. - The impact of the upcoming lifting of restrictions in 2026 is expected to primarily affect newer properties, with gradual price adjustments rather than immediate sell-offs [15][16]. Additional Important Insights - The rental yield for larger units is around 1.6%-1.7%, while older small units can exceed 2% [34]. - The current market is characterized by a predominance of first-time buyers, with a significant portion of transactions driven by local residents [31][27]. - The overall health of the Shanghai real estate market is deemed stable, with no immediate need for drastic policy interventions, although a complete lifting of purchase restrictions could lead to speculative activities [21][33]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the Shanghai real estate market, highlighting trends, buyer behavior, and future expectations.

| 地块公告号 | 地块名称 | | 用地性质 | 建设用地面积 规划建筑面积 | | 容积率 | 起始价 | 成交价 | 成交楼面价 | 溢价率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | (m') | (m2) | | (万元) | (万元) | (元/m²) | | | | 202507201 | 杨浦区N090601单元l4-01地块 | | 住宅用地 | 16482.71 | 29668.87 | 1.80 | 213620 | 273620 | 92225 | 28.09% | pi я | | | | | | દાર્ટ | | | | | | | | | 202507202 | 闵行区MHC10402单元24A-06A地块 | | 住宅用地 | 9319.60 | 14911.36 | 1.60 | 49148 | 54648 | 36649 | 11.19% | 04 | | 202507203 | 青浦区QPC1-0009单元75-04地块 | | 住宅、商业 ...

Core Insights - The Shanghai new housing market has seen 54 projects with subscription rates exceeding 100% as of August 13, 2025, indicating strong demand in core areas despite market fluctuations [1] Subscription Rates Overview - Among the projects, 26 have subscription rates between 100% and 200%, 23 between 200% and 300%, and 5 projects have rates exceeding 300% [4] - Notable projects include: - Jinmao Puyuan with a subscription rate of 175% in August - Runyun Jinmao Mansion at 215% - Qiantan Mansion at 157% [2] High-Performing Projects - The top-performing project, Feiyun Yuefu, achieved a remarkable 412% subscription rate in April, reflecting its high market appeal [4] - Other significant projects include: - Pudong Yangsi's Feiyun Yuefu with consistent rates above 130% across five openings - Pudong Beicai's Pudong Lian Garden and Qiantan Mansion, both exceeding 100% in three openings [4]