当下，"上海房价是否触底" 无疑是购房者、投资者最关注的焦点 —— 看似有不少 "见底" 信号冒头，但市场又藏着太多不确定性。我们就用高频数据拆 解现状，聊聊上海房价的 "底" 到底远不远。 那些疑似 "见底" 的信号，靠谱吗？ 之所以现在大家热议 "触底"，核心源于周期、量价、政策等多方面的支撑，每一个信号都值得细品： 1. 周期规律：按历史联动性，转折点或在 2026 年 1 月 参考房地产历史周期与M1-M2 增速（市场流动性、需求活力的先行指标）的联动关系，过往规律显示 "每 5 年一个周期"。按此推算，这一轮房地产市场 的转折点大概率在 2026 年 1 月 —— 也就是说，现在正处在周期切换的 "关键观察期"，不少人将此视为 "触底前奏"。 4. 政策 + 外部环境：利好信号正在叠加 近期楼市的积极信号不算少，每一个都可能影响市场走向： 2. 量价逻辑："量在价先" 是老规律，成交量已达标？ 上海房产投资有个经典判断：成交持续放量 3-6 个月后，房价才会跟着涨（市场普遍认为 "放量" 门槛是月成交 2 万套）。从数据看，去年下半年已有多 个月份成交超 2 万套；2025 年更是发力 ——3-6 ...

825新政能否唤醒上海楼市的"金九银十"？ 上海8.25楼市新政出台后，多项数据反映出积极信号。 根据上海佑威房地产研究中心统计，8月份上海二手房成交达到19,912套（含商业、车位），环比微涨2.97%，同比去年增长11.34%。尤其值得注意的是，8月30日 单日成交1103套，创下近两个月来的新高。 新房市场也出现局部火热现象。 外环外的两个项目——闵行梅陇的保利・海上印三批次和宝山杨行的金茂棠，均实现了"开盘即清盘"。不少其他楼盘的访客量和成交量也比新政前有明显提升。 图源：网络 市场一线的反馈同样积极。七宝某中介门店负责人表示："新政出台后，咨询量确实上涨明显，几乎每天都有新客户主动询问。同时，着急挂牌置换的房东也增多 不少。" 那么， 新政究竟为何在此时推出？它又将对外环内市场乃至环沪区域产生怎样的影响？上海楼市后续走势如何？ 为什么现在出这个政策？ 8月25日，上海推出新一轮楼市调控政策，涉及限购放宽、公积金政策优化和房产税调整三方面核心内容。 新规明确，符合购房条件的居民在外环外购房不再限制套数，单身人士也可参照家庭标准执行。公积金贷款额度普遍上调15%，多子女家庭购买首套房可额外叠加 优惠；同 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state of the real estate market in Shanghai, highlighting a significant drop in property prices and the implications for potential investors and first-time buyers [5][7][8]. Group 1: Market Trends - Property prices in Shanghai have reportedly decreased by approximately 30%, yet they remain significantly higher than prices from 2015, indicating a potential overvaluation in the current market [7][8]. - The article notes that the historical trend of property prices suggests that after prolonged periods of increase or decrease, prices tend to revert to their intrinsic value, which is a pattern observed in the broader market [7][8]. Group 2: Investment Considerations - A specific property in the Putuo District is being marketed at a low price of around 30,000 yuan per square meter, attracting interest from potential investors despite concerns about rental yields and market risks [5]. - The discussion among potential investors reflects a cautious approach, weighing the benefits of immediate rental income against the risks of property depreciation and market volatility [5]. Group 3: Buyer Sentiment - There is a noticeable shift in sentiment among younger buyers, who are increasingly skeptical about the value of investing in real estate, feeling disillusioned by past price surges that outpaced their income growth [8]. - The article suggests that the current market conditions may deter young buyers from entering the market, as they prioritize financial stability over property investment [5][8].