Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the equity market is showing signs of upward momentum, with the total A-share index rising by 0.60% and trading volume increasing by 467 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1][2] - The report highlights that the market is attempting to establish new narratives, which historically accompany successful breakthroughs of previous highs at year-end [1][2] - The report suggests that the index is approaching previous highs, with the total A-share index breaking through 6400 points, nearing the highs of October and November [2] Group 2 - The report identifies strong performance in specific sectors, particularly defense, military, and communication industries, which have successfully broken through previous high points, indicating a positive market sentiment towards these sectors [2] - The commercial aerospace sector has led the market with a cumulative increase of 31.12% since November 24, and its trading volume has reached a historical high of 6.05% of total A-share trading volume [3] - The bond market is experiencing a mixed performance, with short-term bonds showing a downward trend while long-term bonds are under pressure due to rising yields influenced by equity market movements [4][5] Group 3 - The report notes that the commodity market has shifted from a broad rally to a more differentiated performance, with precious metals experiencing a decline while industrial metals remain resilient [6] - The report emphasizes that the long-term bullish logic for precious metals remains intact, but short-term volatility may arise due to profit-taking after significant price increases [7] - The report discusses the dynamics in the polysilicon industry, where price increases are being driven by supply-side adjustments, despite ongoing supply-demand imbalances [7]

Market Trend Analysis - The core trading principle is to avoid opposing the trend [1] - In an upward trend, market capitalization estimates are used to formulate take-profit strategies, supporting the selling of existing spot or long positions [1] - The rise of $ASTER is driven by market sentiment consensus based on capital inflow [1] - The upward trend is still maintained overall [1] Investment Strategy - Market capitalization estimates are not for chasing gains ("buy now") or shorting ("go short now") [1] - Rational individuals may only watch, while brave long positions may achieve 3-5x gains by chasing highs [1] Risk Management - Touching the peak (摸顶) is considered impossible [1]

宁可要模糊的正确，也不要为追求精准造成错误BTC 100K 接的货一直在波段，为了买底卖顶在上涨趋势中把货波掉太多，忽略了新高趋势这一模糊的正确以后找到位置接 BTC 还是以持有为主，不少矿工之前说矿工成本价的问题，对新高的判断也低了不少希望这两个月过去之后再给一个有成本优势的机会Yuyue (@yuyue_chris):经常犯下的错误是由于仓位大了影响心态，而失去对市值区间的大概判断，追求一定要买在底部卖在顶部市场情绪往往会影响盘面，造成过于贪婪或过于绝望的顶部和底部宁可要模糊的正确，也不要为追求精准造成错误 ...