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秦洪看盘|交易筹码止盈,短线回落整固
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-30 10:27
Market Overview - The A-share market maintained a strong oscillation pattern in the morning but saw major indices decline after noon, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking below the 4000-point mark [2] - Despite the decline, trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased, indicating strong support at lower levels [2] - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong showed signs of recovery after the A-share market closed, suggesting sustained investment confidence in Chinese assets [2][5] Short-term Trading Catalysts - Three clear short-term trading catalysts were identified: 1. Trade negotiations have shown signs of resolution, leading to profit-taking among investors [2] 2. The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rate cuts has become clearer, with indications that a new round of cuts is not imminent, prompting profit-taking [2] 3. Third-quarter earnings reports are becoming clearer, particularly for key companies, leading to increased profit-taking [2] Sector Performance - AI hardware sector stocks, particularly in the CPO field, experienced weak performance, indicating that momentum investors began to sell off [3] - The innovative drug sector also faced downward pressure as the narrative around sustained Fed rate cuts weakened, leading to increased selling pressure [3] - Despite the pressure on certain sectors, insurance and lithium battery stocks remained strong, helping to maintain index strength [3] New Narratives and Future Outlook - The Shanghai Composite Index's drop below 4000 points highlights its significance as a psychological barrier, suggesting ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears [4] - The Hang Seng Index's recovery and significant inflow of southbound capital (over 12 billion HKD) indicate strong attractiveness of Chinese assets [5] - Emerging narratives, such as the U.S. "G2" relationship and China's new energy system initiatives, are expected to provide new catalysts for growth in related sectors [5] - Despite some underperformance in the AI sector, improvements in resource, chemical, and food and beverage sectors suggest a solid foundation for the A-share market [5]