国际地缘冲突扰动仍存，国际油价偏强，带动丙烷跟涨，丙烯成本端抬升，叠加供需基本面支撑尚可，带动丙烯 价格偏强整理。具体看供应端，辽宁金发、利华益维远 PDH 装置临时停车后重启，中景二期装置重启、三期装置 检修，巨正源二期、金能二期PDH延续检修，供应端小幅缩量提供价格支撑，仍需关注当前PDH利润压力下主要 PDH装置实际回归预期。需求端，节后部分下游开工逐步补库备货，下游刚需支撑仍存，但考虑丙烯价格高位下 游成本承压显著，利润压缩后需求跟进或承压：PP端，伴随丙烯-PP粉价差继续收窄，外采型PP粉工厂高价采买意 愿偏低，部分装置降负荷或停工运行，粉料采购支撑有所回落。PO端利润亦有所压缩，宏信丙烯酸、民祥 PO 等 装置节中停车后尚未复工；丁辛醇利润尚可，节后补库意愿较强，开工负荷略有下降。成本端地缘局势扰动仍存， 国际油价有所小幅回落，原料外盘丙烷延续上涨，短期丙烯成本端支撑抬升明显，关注节后主要下游补库节奏， 后期主要驱动仍在于成本端原油、丙烷走势、主要PDH装置检修动态以及下游需求在成本压力下的开工跟进情况。 策略 丙烯日报 | 2026-02-27 下游刚需支撑，成本端主导波动 市场要闻与重要数据 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; supply-side device maintenance and restart changes frequently, combined with new device production capacity release, supply may still be relatively loose; downstream demand overall start-up recovery supports propylene prices in the short term [3] - Inter-period: None - Inter-variety: None 2. Core Viewpoints - South Korea's petrochemical industry's naphtha cracking has the expectation of capacity reduction, and the propylene futures price rebounds under the boost of macro sentiment. South Korea's propylene capacity accounts for 6% of the global total capacity, and from January to July this year, China imported 863,000 tons of propylene from South Korea, accounting for 67.6% of the total imports, and 73.7% in 2024. South Korea's petrochemical capacity reduction may support overseas propylene prices [2] - From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the main PDH devices of Shandong Zhenhua and Jinneng are under maintenance, and the PDH devices of Tianhong and Xintai are restarted, and the PDH start-up rate decreases month-on-month; later, Wanhua Penglai PDH has the expectation of shutdown, and Jilin Petrochemical's new capacity is expected to be released, and the supply may still be relatively loose. Pay attention to the device maintenance situation after late August. The downstream start-up rate has rebounded overall except for acrylic acid. Among them, the start-up rate of octanol has rebounded significantly, the start-up rate of PP has increased slightly, and the start-up rate of acrylic acid has decreased significantly. Later, the PP device of Jingbo and the acrylic acid device of Hongxin have the expectation of recovery. The short-term demand is supported, but the sustainability is questionable. Pay attention to the downstream stocking demand as the peak season approaches [2] - On the cost side, the crude oil price rebounds and fluctuates. Pay attention to macro trends such as geopolitical situations and the implementation of South Korea's cracking device capacity reduction policy [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - Figures include propylene main contract closing price, propylene East China basis, propylene North China basis, propylene 01 - 05 contract, propylene market price in East China, and propylene market price in Shandong [6][9][11] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Start-up Rate - Figures include propylene China CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, propylene PDH production gross profit, propylene PDH capacity utilization rate, propylene MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [15][23][25] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - Figures include South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profit [32][34] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Start-up Rate - Figures include PP powder production profit, PP powder start-up rate, propylene oxide production profit, propylene oxide start-up rate, n - butanol production profit, n - butanol capacity utilization rate, octanol production profit, octanol capacity utilization rate, acrylic acid production profit, acrylic acid capacity utilization rate, acrylonitrile production profit, acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate, phenol - acetone production profit, and phenol - acetone capacity utilization rate [40][42][45] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - Figures include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [67]