Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main factors driving the recent rise in propylene prices are increased concerns about raw material supply and the expected contraction of the olefin supply. After the IEA's 32 member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, incidents such as tanker attacks and ship evacuations in the Middle East have led to continued concerns about the interruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, news of further production cuts at a large domestic petrochemical group's refinery has intensified the expectation of a supply contraction, pushing up olefin prices [2]. - Currently, from the perspective of propylene fundamentals, the supply of raw material propane is tight, and the profit of PDH plants is deeply in the red, increasing the likelihood of PDH plant shutdowns. Many PDH plants are expected to undergo maintenance in mid - and late March, and refinery cracking units are reducing production, further tightening propylene supply. On the demand side, downstream demand is mainly driven by rigid needs. The restart of the Dongfang Hongye plant in Shandong has increased the operating rate of PP powder, and the profits of downstream products such as butanol, octanol, and acrylic acid have improved, leading to stronger restocking intentions. In the short term, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining congested, rising costs, and a tight supply - demand situation, propylene prices are still supported [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene basis structure is presented through figures including the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis, the Shandong basis, and the price differences between different propylene futures contracts [6][7][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures show indicators such as the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [21][24][29] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - The report presents the production profits and operating rates of downstream products including PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [41][42][52] 4. Propylene Inventory - Figures show the propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [67][68]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Supply-side PDH device maintenance information keeps releasing, leading to a phased tightening of propylene supply and expected alleviation of supply pressure. Demand-side downstream rigid demand persists, but demand follow-up may be limited after price hikes. Cost-side raw material cost support remains. Under the improvement of supply and demand and sentiment boost, propylene prices continue to be strong. Follow-up attention should be paid to cost changes and PDH device maintenance implementation [3]. - For the strategy, it is recommended to cautiously buy on dips for hedging. The supply and demand structure has slightly improved, but the easing of geopolitical disturbances has caused oil prices to fall from highs, and the short-term upward trend of the propylene market may slow down [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene basis structure is presented through figures such as the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, Shandong basis, 03 - 04 contract spread, and PL03 - 05 contract spread, as well as market prices in East China, Shandong, and South China [7][12][15] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Propylene production profit and operating rate are shown in figures including the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [18][21][25] 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Propylene downstream profit and operating rate are presented in figures such as PP powder production profit and operating rate, propylene oxide production profit and operating rate, n - butanol production profit and capacity utilization rate, octanol production profit and capacity utilization rate, acrylic acid production profit and capacity utilization rate, acrylonitrile production profit and capacity utilization rate, and phenol - acetone production profit and capacity utilization rate [37][43][49] 4. Propylene Inventory - Propylene inventory is shown in figures of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [62]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Supply-side: PDH device parking information is continuously released. The 900,000-ton PDH device of Jinneng Phase II has started maintenance for about 20 days, and the Shenghong MTO device also has a maintenance plan in the later stage. The supply pressure in the propylene market is expected to be alleviated stage by stage, and the market starts to trade the expectation of tightened supply due to device maintenance, waiting for the fulfillment of the expectation of increased maintenance in the first quarter [2]. - Demand-side: Downstream buyers enter the market at low prices and make rigid purchases. The spot trading of propylene has improved. The overall downstream operating rate has rebounded. The PP end has seen the restart of the second line of Jingbo's PP and the 150,000-ton PP device of Huizhou Lituo that purchases propylene externally. The support at the PP end has increased. At the PO end, the price of propylene oxide has risen rapidly due to the rush to export caused by the cancellation of export tax rebates for its main downstream product, polyether. The profit of PO has been greatly repaired, and the operating rate of the main downstream is expected to rise. The profit of butanol and octanol is acceptable, and the restart of previously shut - down devices has led to a significant increase in the operating rate. The operating rates of acrylic acid and phenol - ketone have also increased significantly. There is still rigid demand support downstream of propylene, but attention should be paid to the follow - up situation of downstream enterprises after the profit is compressed when the propylene price rises to a high level [2]. - Cost-side: International oil prices have rebounded due to the intensification of geopolitical situations, and the price of propane remains strong, which still provides support. The cost support for propylene has increased. With the marginal improvement of supply and demand and the boost of sentiment, the propylene price continues to be strong. In the future, attention should be paid to the changes in the cost side and the fulfillment of PDH device maintenance [2]. - Strategy: For unilateral trading, it is advisable to cautiously go long on a hedging basis. The supply - demand structure has improved slightly, and the short - term market will remain strong under the boost of sentiment, waiting for the fulfillment of marginal device maintenance. There are no strategies for inter - period or cross - variety trading [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents figures related to the propylene basis structure, including the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the Shandong basis of propylene, the price difference between the 03 - 04 contracts of propylene, the price difference between the PL03 - 05 contracts, and the market prices of propylene in East China, Shandong, and South China [5][12][13][14] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures show aspects such as the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, production profit and capacity utilization rate of PDH - made propylene, production profit and capacity utilization rate of MTO - made propylene, production profit of propylene from naphtha cracking, capacity utilization rate of crude oil main refineries, the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, and propylene import profit [18][21][26][29][32] 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - The report provides information on the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - ketone, which are downstream products of propylene [36][37][44][51][52][55][59] 3.4 Propylene Inventory - Figures display the in - plant inventory of propylene and PP powder [64]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; PDH propylene supply is expected to tighten, but downstream profits are under pressure and follow - up may be limited. Pay attention to device dynamics. - Inter - period: None. - Inter - variety: None. [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The expected de - capacity of the South Korean petrochemical industry's naphtha cracking boosts propylene prices. South Korea's propylene capacity accounts for 6% of the global total. From January to July this year, China imported 863,000 tons of propylene from South Korea, accounting for 67.6% of total imports, and 73.7% in 2024. South Korea's petrochemical de - capacity may support overseas propylene prices. - On the supply side, the maintenance of Shandong Zhenhua PDH continues, and Qingdao Jinneng and Wanhua Penglai PDH are shut down for maintenance. The PDH start - up rate has declined month - on - month, and the external release of propylene has tightened, which supports the price in the short term. However, downstream profits are under pressure at high prices, and procurement is cautious, so the upward space for propylene prices may be limited. - On the demand side, the overall downstream start - up rate has rebounded. The start - up rate of octanol has increased significantly, and the PP start - up rate has increased slightly. The start - up rate of acrylic acid has declined significantly. In the short term, demand is supported, but its sustainability is questionable. - On the cost side, the crude oil price has stopped falling and then fluctuated upward, and the landed price of the propane outer market has rebounded, so the cost - side support has shifted upward. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6491 yuan/ton (+21), the spot price of propylene in East China is 6450 yuan/ton (+25), the spot price of propylene in North China is 6455 yuan/ton (-45), the basis of propylene in East China is - 41 yuan/ton (+4), and the basis of propylene in North China is - 36 yuan/ton (-66). [1] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The propylene start - up rate is 75% (+1%), China's propylene CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR is 193 US dollars/ton (-3), and propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 97 US dollars/ton (+1). [1] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profits - The propylene import profit is - 263 yuan/ton (+3). [1] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profits and Start - up Rates - PP powder start - up rate is 40% (+1.29%), production profit is - 55 yuan/ton (+75); epoxy propane start - up rate is 74% (+2%), production profit is - 383 yuan/ton (-86); n - butanol start - up rate is 89% (+0%), production profit is 336 yuan/ton (+589); octanol start - up rate is 92% (+6%), production profit is 430 yuan/ton (-18); acrylic acid start - up rate is 70% (-5%), production profit is 446 yuan/ton (-18); acrylonitrile start - up rate is 73% (+1%), production profit is - 572 yuan/ton (+56); phenol - acetone start - up rate is 78% (+1%), production profit is - 727 yuan/ton (+0). [1] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory is 40,320 tons (+3470). [1]