丙烯日报 | 2026-01-16 供应端持续缩量，丙烯价格延续偏强 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6122元/吨（+40），丙烯华东现货价6325元/吨（+75），丙烯华北现货价6110元/吨 （+115），丙烯华东基差203元/吨（+35），丙烯华北基差-154元/吨（-79）。丙烯开工率75%（-1%），中国丙烯CFR- 日本石脑油CFR245美元/吨（+16），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR80美元/吨（+15），进口利润-465元/吨（+73），厂内库存 46270吨（+1580）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率32%（-5.84%），生产利润-80元/吨（-55）；环氧丙烷开工率72%（-1%），生产利润186 元/吨（+70）；正丁醇开工率87%（+4%），生产利润450元/吨（-71）；辛醇开工率94%（+5%），生产利润679元/吨 （-33）；丙烯酸开工率82%（-5%），生产利润88元/吨（+50）；丙烯腈开工率78%（-1%），生产利润-1321元/吨（-131）； 酚酮开工率89%（+4%），生产利润-829元/吨（+87）。 市场分析 供应端，PDH装置停车信息持续释 ...

丙烯日报 | 2026-01-14 供需延续收紧，成本端支撑抬升 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6014元/吨（-57），丙烯华东现货价6050元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价5970元/吨（+35）， 丙烯华东基差36元/吨（+57），丙烯华北基差-154元/吨（-79）。丙烯开工率76%（+1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR197美元/吨（-7），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR42美元/吨（+6），进口利润-247元/吨（+83），厂内库存44690吨（-3100）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率37%（-1.19%），生产利润-40元/吨（-5）；环氧丙烷开工率74%（+0%），生产利润-47 元/吨（+68）；正丁醇开工率83%（+2%），生产利润507元/吨（-1）；辛醇开工率89%（+7%），生产利润730元/吨（-25）； 丙烯酸开工率87%（+4%），生产利润180元/吨（+0）；丙烯腈开工率79%（+0%），生产利润-1164元/吨（-37）；酚 酮开工率86%（+5%），生产利润-776元/吨（+93）。 市场分析 供应端，PDH装置停车信息持续释放，金能二期90万吨P ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; PDH propylene supply is expected to tighten, but downstream profits are under pressure and follow - up may be limited. Pay attention to device dynamics. - Inter - period: None. - Inter - variety: None. [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The expected de - capacity of the South Korean petrochemical industry's naphtha cracking boosts propylene prices. South Korea's propylene capacity accounts for 6% of the global total. From January to July this year, China imported 863,000 tons of propylene from South Korea, accounting for 67.6% of total imports, and 73.7% in 2024. South Korea's petrochemical de - capacity may support overseas propylene prices. - On the supply side, the maintenance of Shandong Zhenhua PDH continues, and Qingdao Jinneng and Wanhua Penglai PDH are shut down for maintenance. The PDH start - up rate has declined month - on - month, and the external release of propylene has tightened, which supports the price in the short term. However, downstream profits are under pressure at high prices, and procurement is cautious, so the upward space for propylene prices may be limited. - On the demand side, the overall downstream start - up rate has rebounded. The start - up rate of octanol has increased significantly, and the PP start - up rate has increased slightly. The start - up rate of acrylic acid has declined significantly. In the short term, demand is supported, but its sustainability is questionable. - On the cost side, the crude oil price has stopped falling and then fluctuated upward, and the landed price of the propane outer market has rebounded, so the cost - side support has shifted upward. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6491 yuan/ton (+21), the spot price of propylene in East China is 6450 yuan/ton (+25), the spot price of propylene in North China is 6455 yuan/ton (-45), the basis of propylene in East China is - 41 yuan/ton (+4), and the basis of propylene in North China is - 36 yuan/ton (-66). [1] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The propylene start - up rate is 75% (+1%), China's propylene CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR is 193 US dollars/ton (-3), and propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 97 US dollars/ton (+1). [1] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profits - The propylene import profit is - 263 yuan/ton (+3). [1] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profits and Start - up Rates - PP powder start - up rate is 40% (+1.29%), production profit is - 55 yuan/ton (+75); epoxy propane start - up rate is 74% (+2%), production profit is - 383 yuan/ton (-86); n - butanol start - up rate is 89% (+0%), production profit is 336 yuan/ton (+589); octanol start - up rate is 92% (+6%), production profit is 430 yuan/ton (-18); acrylic acid start - up rate is 70% (-5%), production profit is 446 yuan/ton (-18); acrylonitrile start - up rate is 73% (+1%), production profit is - 572 yuan/ton (+56); phenol - acetone start - up rate is 78% (+1%), production profit is - 727 yuan/ton (+0). [1] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory is 40,320 tons (+3470). [1]